Katherine Burton, Simone Foxman and Katia Porzecanski of Bloomberg report, Hedge Funds Boost Financials, Trim Tech and Other 13F Highlights:
It's that time of the year again where we all get to peak into the portfolios of "money manager gods" and some not so divine hedge fund and asset managers. Before reading this comment, make sure you skim through my last comment going over top funds' activity in Q3 2016.
I will let you read some more articles on 13F filings like these ones:
Icahn raises stakes in Herbalife, Hertz; cuts PayPal, Freeport-McMoran
Soros Fund Management buys new stakes in financials
Soros gets out of gold, Paulson cuts SPDR Gold shares
Buffett's Berkshire takes huge bite of Apple shares, boosts airline stakes
You can also read all the Google articles covering 13F filings to see what those smart "billionaires" bought and sold last quarter.
For me, it's a total waste of time as markets have moved a lot following the elections. I do go over their holdings for ideas (where did they add and why?) but I always look at the daily and weekly charts to determine whether or not to initiate a position.
More importantly, I am consumed by big macro trends, that's what drives my personal trading and why I'm very careful interpreting what the tops funds bought and sold last quarter.
In my last comment covering a CFA Montreal lunch featuring André Bourbonnais, the President and CEO of PSP Investments, I was very adamant about something:
I realize markets can move in the opposite direction of my long-term deflationary call, but that's alright, it gives me opportunities to trade some sectors like biotech (XBI) and technology (XLK) knowing full well "markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
I listen carefully to the views of smart strategists like François Trahan of Cornerstone Macro who was in town a couple of weeks ago for another CFA Montreal luncheon I covered on my blog where he expressed his bearish views but I've been more bullish than he him in the short-run knowing how all the quants and CTAs will try to squeeze as much juice as they can from the Trump rally.
If you ask me, the biggest risk now in stocks is a market melt-up akin to the folly of 1999-2000 when you would wake up every day to see tech stocks like Microstrategy (MSTR) up 10, 20 or 30% a day. Do you remember those crazy times? I certainly do, it was nuts.
Admittedly, for a lot of structural reasons (global deflation being the biggest one), the chances of another tech bubble are low (even if I'd love to see a biotech bubble), but never say never and remember, despite all the talk of upcoming Fed rate hikes, there is plenty of juice in the financial system to drive risks assets even higher (and this despite the recent tightening of financial conditions).
Most big hedge funds are more worried about Trump's slew of uncertainties and how to navigate these dizzy presidential tweet filled days.
Hedge fund quants engaged in high-frequency, momentum trading love these type of markets because they can squeeze shorts out of their positions and enjoy the ride up.
But data nerds are struggling to gain power at some hedge funds and I'm not sure all these whiz kids are worth the huge investment. I read nonsense from the Wall Street Journal about how Julian Robertson's Tiger Cubs have become Wall Street prey to all these quant funds and how they're investing in quants and risk managers after suffering a terrible year last year.
This is a total waste of time, money and effort. Look at Buffett, he keeps it simple and clean and is killing all these hedge funds and quant funds over the long run.
Last year was a tough year for a lot of marquee hedge funds like Andreas Halvorsen's Viking Global, one of my favorite long-short hedge funds. After posting a 4% loss in 2016, its worst performance since launching back in 1999, Halvorsen outlined important changes to his fund's managerial structure, tightened up risk management and expanded the universe of stocks they cover (read more here).
I met Andreas Halvorsen back in 2002 when he was part of my directional hedge fund portfolio at the Caisse. He is extremely impressive and very competent at what he does. I wouldn't think twice about investing in his fund even after a "disappointing" year (Viking is already doing much better this year).
Another big shot hedge fund star who suffered "relatively" disappointing returns last year was Steve Cohen, the perfect hedge fund predator waiting to get back in the game next year when he'll be back at it again under the new improved SAC Capital.
[Note: Read this comment from an ex-SAC trader to get an inside look at how he used to run his shop. There is a lot of nonsense being written on Cohen.]
Cohen's (family office) firm Point72 Asset Management returned just 1% last year, according to Bloomberg, underperforming both the S&P 500, up 9.5% in 2016, as well as hedge funds in general, which averaged returns of about 5.6% for the year. It was Cohen's worst year on record other than 2008, when he lost nearly 28%—the only year the billionaire trader has lost money, though he did outperform the broader market.
Love him or hate him, however, Cohen is fiercely competitive and he's upfront about what went wrong last year:
The top hedge funds get fed the same trades from their investment bankers which cover them closely and they also talk to each other, so they feed each other a lot of trades and have the same quantitative and analytical approach to their portfolios. In short, there is a lot of group think in the hedge fund industry, much more than there ever was so it's hardly surprising to see lackluster returns among marquee funds.
Still, Cohen knows all this, he is a trader, one of the best traders ever, and let me show you something to understand why. Look at Point72's top holdings as of the end of last quarter (click on image):
Notice how Cohen's family office increased its stake in Tesaro (TSRO) significantly in Q4 right before the stock surged? (click on image)
Tesaro is a biotech focusing on cancer treatments and it's part of the top holdings of the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI). It also could fetch north of $200 per share in a rumored takeover, Credit Suisse and Leerink analysts suggested last week.
When did Point72 significantly increase its stake in Tesaro? I reckon it was right before the election when I wrote about America's Brexit or biotech moment.
So, if you ask me, Cohen made one the best stock trades late last year, significantly increasing his stake in Tesaro at the right time, and I'm convinced he's going to come back strong this year and so will George Soros who lost close to a billion dollars after Trump won, loading up on big bets against the stock market at the wrong time (he will load up on big short positions at the right time in late Q1 or early Q2).
Would you like me to go over all the top trades I saw and more importantly, where I see big money in the stock market going forward?
Perhaps you'd like me to hold your hand and give you a lollipop too? I spoon feed all you enough information and I'm busy trading Leo's biotech watch list (click on each of three images):
Unlike these hedge fund and private equity "gods", I can't charge dumb pensions 2 & 20 for my comments or shaft you with other fees. In fact, if I'm brutally honest with myself, I'm the biggest dummy in the world offering you all this information for free!
Hope you enjoyed reading this comment, please remember to show your financial support for the work that goes into these comments by donating or subscribing to my blog on the top right-hand side under my picture.
You can read many articles on 13F filings on Barron's, Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Forbes and other sites like Insider Monkey, Holdings Channel, and whale wisdom. Interestingly, Insider Monkey now compiles a list of top 100 hedge funds based on tracking their long positions on each quarterly 13-F filing. This list can be found here.
My favorite service for tracking top funds is Symmetric run by Sam Abbas and David Moon but there are other services offered by market folly and you can track tweets from Hedgemind and subscribe to their services too. I also like Dataroma which offers a lot of excellent and updated information on top funds and a lot more on insider activity and crowded trades (for free).
In addition to this, I regularly look at the YTD performance of stocks, the 12-month leaders, the 52-week highs and 52-week lows. I also like to track the most shorted stocks and highest yielding stocks in various exchanges and I have a list of stocks I track in over 100 industries/ themes to see what is moving in real time.
Enjoy going through the holdings of top funds below but be careful, it's a dynamic market where things constantly change and even the best of the best managers find it tough making money in these schizoid markets.
Top multi-strategy and event driven hedge funds
As the name implies, these hedge funds invest across a wide variety of hedge fund strategies like L/S Equity, L/S credit, global macro, convertible arbitrage, risk arbitrage, volatility arbitrage, merger arbitrage, distressed debt and statistical pair trading.
Unlike fund of hedge funds, the fees are lower because there is a single manager managing the portfolio, allocating across various alpha strategies as opportunities arise. Below are links to the holdings of some top multi-strategy hedge funds I track closely:
1) Citadel Advisors
2) Balyasny Asset Management
3) Farallon Capital Management
4) Peak6 Investments
5) Kingdon Capital Management
6) Millennium Management
7) Eton Park Capital Management
8) HBK Investments
9) Highbridge Capital Management
10) Highland Capital Management
11) Pentwater Capital Management
12) Och-Ziff Capital Management
13) Pine River Capital Capital Management
14) Carlson Capital Management
15) Magnetar Capital
16) Mount Kellett Capital Management
17) Whitebox Advisors
18) QVT Financial
19) Paloma Partners
20) Perry Capital
21) Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisors
22) York Capital Management
Top Global Macro Hedge Funds and Family Offices
These hedge funds gained notoriety because of George Soros, arguably the best and most famous hedge fund manager. Global macros typically invest in bond and currency markets but the top macro funds are able to invest across all asset classes, including equities.
George Soros, Carl Icahn, Stanley Druckenmiller, Julian Robertson and now Steve Cohen have converted their hedge funds into family offices to manage their own money and basically only answer to themselves (that is my definition of true investment success).
1) Soros Fund Management
2) Icahn Associates
3) Duquesne Family Office (Stanley Druckenmiller)
4) Bridgewater Associates
5) Pointstate Capital Partners
6) Caxton Associates (Bruce Kovner)
7) Tudor Investment Corporation
8) Tiger Management (Julian Robertson)
9) Moore Capital Management
10) Point72 Asset Management (Steve Cohen)
11) Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Trust (Michael Larson, the man behind Gates)
Top Market Neutral, Quant and CTA Hedge Funds
These funds use sophisticated mathematical algorithms to initiate their positions. They typically only hire PhDs in mathematics, physics and computer science to develop their algorithms. Market neutral funds will engage in pair trading to remove market beta.
1) Alyeska Investment Group
2) Renaissance Technologies
3) DE Shaw & Co.
4) Two Sigma Investments
5) Numeric Investors
6) Analytic Investors
7) Winton Capital Management
8) Graham Capital Management
9) SABA Capital Management
10) Quantitative Investment Management
11) Oxford Asset Management
Top Deep Value, Activist, Event Driven and Distressed Debt Funds
These are among the top long-only funds that everyone tracks. They include funds run by legendary investors like Warren Buffet, Seth Klarman, Ron Baron and Ken Fisher. Activist investors like to make investments in companies where management lacks the proper incentives to maximize shareholder value. They differ from traditional L/S hedge funds by having a more concentrated portfolio. Distressed debt funds typically invest in debt of a company but sometimes take equity positions.
1) Abrams Capital Management
2) Berkshire Hathaway
3) Baron Partners Fund (click here to view other Baron funds)
4) BHR Capital
5) Fisher Asset Management
6) Baupost Group
7) Fairfax Financial Holdings
8) Fairholme Capital
9) Trian Fund Management
10) Gotham Asset Management
11) Fir Tree Partners
12) Elliott Associates
13) Jana Partners
14) Gabelli Funds
15) Highfields Capital Management
16) Eminence Capital
17) Pershing Square Capital Management
18) New Mountain Vantage Advisers
19) Atlantic Investment Management
20) Scout Capital Management
21) Third Point
22) Marcato Capital Management
23) Glenview Capital Management
24) Apollo Management
25) Avenue Capital
26) Armistice Capital
27) Blue Harbor Group
28) Brigade Capital Management
29) Caspian Capital
30) Kerrisdale Advisers
31) Knighthead Capital Management
32) Relational Investors
33) Roystone Capital Management
34) Scopia Capital Management
35) Schneider Capital Management
36) ValueAct Capital
37) Vulcan Value Partners
38) Okumus Fund Management
39) Eagle Capital Management
40) Sasco Capital
41) Lyrical Asset Management
42) Gabelli Funds
43) Brave Warrior Advisors
44) Matrix Asset Advisors
45) Jet Capital
46) Conatus Capital Management
47) Starboard Value
48) Pzena Investment Management
Top Long/Short Hedge Funds
These hedge funds go long shares they think will rise in value and short those they think will fall. Along with global macro funds, they command the bulk of hedge fund assets. There are many L/S funds but here is a small sample of some well known funds.
1) Adage Capital Management
2) Appaloosa LP
3) Greenlight Capital
4) Maverick Capital
5) Pointstate Capital Partners
6) Marathon Asset Management
7) JAT Capital Management
8) Coatue Management
9) Omega Advisors (Leon Cooperman)
10) Artis Capital Management
11) Fox Point Capital Management
12) Jabre Capital Partners
13) Lone Pine Capital
14) Paulson & Co.
15) Bronson Point Management
16) Hoplite Capital Management
17) LSV Asset Management
18) Hussman Strategic Advisors
19) Cantillon Capital Management
20) Brookside Capital Management
21) Blue Ridge Capital
22) Iridian Asset Management
23) Clough Capital Partners
24) GLG Partners LP
25) Cadence Capital Management
26) Karsh Capital Management
27) New Mountain Vantage
28) Andor Capital Management
29) Silver Point Capital
30) Steadfast Capital Management
31) Brookside Capital Management
32) PAR Capital Capital Management
33) Gilder, Gagnon, Howe & Co
34) Brahman Capital
35) Bridger Management
36) Kensico Capital Management
37) Kynikos Associates
38) Soroban Capital Partners
39) Passport Capital
40) Pennant Capital Management
41) Mason Capital Management
42) Tide Point Capital Management
43) Sirios Capital Management
44) Hayman Capital Management
45) Highside Capital Management
46) Tremblant Capital Group
47) Decade Capital Management
48) T. Boone Pickens BP Capital
49) Bloom Tree Partners
50) Cadian Capital Management
51) Matrix Capital Management
52) Senvest Partners
53) Falcon Edge Capital Management
54) Melvin Capital Partners
55) Owl Creek Asset Management
56) Portolan Capital Management
57) Proxima Capital Management
58) Tiger Global Management
59) Tourbillon Capital Partners
60) Impala Asset Management
61) Valinor Management
62) Viking Global Investors
63) Marshall Wace
64) Suvretta Capital Management
65) York Capital Management
66) Zweig-Dimenna Associates
Top Sector and Specialized Funds
I like tracking activity funds that specialize in real estate, biotech, healthcare, retail and other sectors like mid, small and micro caps. Here are some funds worth tracking closely.
1) Armistice Capital
2) Baker Brothers Advisors
3) Palo Alto Investors
4) Broadfin Capital
5) Healthcor Management
6) Orbimed Advisors
7) Deerfield Management
8) BB Biotech AG
9) Ghost Tree Capital
10) Sectoral Asset Management
11) Oracle Investment Management
12) Perceptive Advisors
13) Consonance Capital Management
14) Camber Capital Management
15) Redmile Group
16) RTW Investments
17) Bridger Capital Management
18) Southeastern Asset Management
19) Bridgeway Capital Management
20) Cohen & Steers
21) Cardinal Capital Management
22) Munder Capital Management
23) Diamondhill Capital Management
24) Cortina Asset Management
25) Geneva Capital Management
26) Criterion Capital Management
27) Daruma Capital Management
28) 12 West Capital Management
29) RA Capital Management
30) Sarissa Capital Management
31) SIO Capital Management
32) Senzar Asset Management
33) Sphera Funds
34) Tang Capital Management
35) Thomson Horstmann & Bryant
36) Venbio Select Advisors
37) Ecor1 Capital
Mutual Funds and Asset Managers
Mutual funds and large asset managers are not hedge funds but their sheer size makes them important players. Some asset managers have excellent track records. Below, are a few funds investors track closely.
1) Fidelity
2) Blackrock Fund Advisors
3) Wellington Management
4) AQR Capital Management
5) Sands Capital Management
6) Brookfield Asset Management
7) Dodge & Cox
8) Eaton Vance Management
9) Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co.
10) Geode Capital Management
11) Goldman Sachs Group
12) JP Morgan Chase& Co.
13) Morgan Stanley
14) Manulife Asset Management
15) RCM Capital Management
16) UBS Asset Management
17) Barclays Global Investor
18) Epoch Investment Partners
19) Thornburg Investment Management
20) Legg Mason Capital Management
21) Kornitzer Capital Management
22) Batterymarch Financial Management
23) Tocqueville Asset Management
24) Neuberger Berman
25) Winslow Capital Management
26) Herndon Capital Management
27) Artisan Partners
28) Great West Life Insurance Management
29) Lazard Asset Management
30) Janus Capital Management
31) Franklin Resources
32) Capital Research Global Investors
33) T. Rowe Price
34) First Eagle Investment Management
35) Frontier Capital Management
36) Akre Capital Management
Canadian Asset Managers
Here are a few Canadian funds I track closely:
1) Letko, Brosseau and Associates
2) Fiera Capital Corporation
3) West Face Capital
4) Hexavest
5) 1832 Asset Management
6) Jarislowsky, Fraser
7) Connor, Clark & Lunn Investment Management
8) TD Asset Management
9) CIBC Asset Management
10) Beutel, Goodman & Co
11) Greystone Managed Investments
12) Mackenzie Financial Corporation
13) Great West Life Assurance Co
14) Guardian Capital
15) Scotia Capital
16) AGF Investments
17) Montrusco Bolton
18) Venator Capital Management
Pension Funds, Endowment Funds, and Sovereign Wealth Funds
Last but not least, I track activity of some pension funds, endowment funds and sovereign wealth funds. I like to focus on funds that invest in top hedge funds and have internal alpha managers. Below, a sample of pension and endowment funds I track closely:
1) Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMco)
2) Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan
3) Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
4) Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec
5) OMERS Administration Corp.
6) British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (bcIMC)
7) Public Sector Pension Investment Board (PSP Investments)
8) PGGM Investments
9) APG All Pensions Group
10) California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS)
11) California State Teachers Retirement System (CalSTRS)
12) New York State Common Fund
13) New York State Teachers Retirement System
14) State Board of Administration of Florida Retirement System
15) State of Wisconsin Investment Board
16) State of New Jersey Common Pension Fund
17) Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio
18) STRS Ohio
19) Teacher Retirement System of Texas
20) Virginia Retirement Systems
21) TIAA CREF investment Management
22) Harvard Management Co.
23) Norges Bank
24) Nordea Investment Management
25) Korea Investment Corp.
26) Singapore Temasek Holdings
27) Yale Endowment Fund
Below, CNBC's Leslie Picker takes a closer look at hedge fund gains under President Trump, saying they are gaining traction.
I agree with the guy at the end who said the "gig is up for hedge funds" (not top funds) but he then said something about "passive investing is here to stay" not realizing how the big alpha bubble migrated into a big beta bubble which will implode, leaving many wondering why.
Hedge fund managers jumped on the Trump train in the last three months of 2016, boosting their stakes in financial companies and reducing their holdings in technology firms.David Randall of Reuters also reports, Bets on financials, pharma power U.S. hedge funds' strong start to year:
Financial institutions have risen 22 percent since Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 8, on optimism that his administration will reduce regulations, cut taxes and spur deal making. Shares of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. hit a record high Tuesday. Technology shares, meanwhile have risen just 9.3 percent since the election, as measured by the S&P 500 Information Technology Index, about the same as the overall market.
The biggest new buys at Stephen Mandel’s Lone Pine Capital in the fourth quarter included a $493 million purchase in PayPal Holdings Inc., a $491 million stake in PNC Financial Services Group Inc. and a $479 million stake in Bank of America Corp, according to government filings Tuesday. Louis Bacon’s Moore Capital Management increased its exposure to financials and lenders including a new $94 million position in the exchange-traded Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund.
The sector accounted for a third of the firm’s U.S. equity holdings at the end of the year. Tudor Investment Corp. continued to boost its stake in financial companies to 26 percent of its equity allocation from about 15 percent a year ago.
Bullish on Banks
The value of hedge fund stakes mostly rose in the fourth quarter on the promise of less regulation and more fiscal spending (click on image).
By comparison, the reduction in holdings of tech companies by several firms was a reversal from the third quarter, when many of the marquee money managers added to their holdings in expectation of a Hillary Clinton win helping the industry.
In the fourth quarter, Third Point, Millennium Management, Melvin Capital Management and Moore Capital were among firms that slashed their stakes in Facebook Inc. Viking Global Investors decreased its stake in Amazon.com Inc. by $1.23 billion. Shares of the online retailer fell about 10 percent last quarter.
Apple Inc., long a hedge fund favorite, lost the love of Chase Coleman’s Tiger Global Management and Aaron Cowen’s Suvretta Capital Management. The two firms sold out of their stakes, worth $407.6 million and $293.9 million at the end of last year, respectively. Coatue Management, the technology-focused hedge fund led by Philippe Laffont, halved its position, leaving it with 3.2 million shares as of Dec. 31.
Bearish on Tech
The value of hedge fund stakes mostly fell in the fourth quarter on concerns that immigration restrictions would set back hiring (click on image).
Och-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC, Discovery Capital Management and PointState Capital were also among funds that cut holdings of gaming company Activision Blizzard Inc. during the fourth quarter as holiday video-game sales disappointed.
One exception to the tech selloff was Salesforce.com. Jana Partners and Sachem Head Capital Management bought 3.2 million and 2.1 million shares, respectively, during the quarter.
In contrast to many industry peers, George Soros’s family office added a new position in Facebook, and increased its stake in Alphabet Inc. and Netflix Inc., but it exited Intel Corp. and some other technology companies.
While Time Warner Inc. and AT&T Inc. announced one of the year’s biggest deals during the fourth quarter, most managers declined to bet on its completion through risk-arbitrage trades. One possible reason: Trump in a campaign speech vowed to block the takeover on the same day it was unveiled by the two companies.
Even managers who did bet on the deal’s completion did so in relatively small doses. Paulson & Co. bought 2.86 million Time Warner shares during the fourth quarter, while Third Point acquired 3 million shares and Abrams Capital Management purchased 3.05 million, according to filings.
Paulson also cut its stake again in insurer American International Group Inc.
Even as the future of health-care stocks have been less clear since Trump’s victory, David Tepper’s Appaloosa Management added to investments in the sector. His largest new buys were in Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., Pfizer Inc. and Mylan NV. He also added to his holding in Allergan Plc, which was worth almost $900 million at the end of the quarter.
Several big-name U.S. hedge fund investors in the fourth quarter moved significant parts of their portfolios into financial and pharmaceutical stocks that are expected to benefit under the Trump administration, helping to power the sector to its best January performance in four years.Haha! Love that last comment, the Oracle of Omaha teaching these young hedge fund swingers how real money is made (Buffett was very busy buying $12 billion of stock from the election to the end of January).
Omega Advisors, run by Leon Cooperman and Steven Einhorn, increased its stake in insurance broker Fidelity & Guaranty Life by 343 percent compared with the quarter before, and added a new position in regional bank Renasant Corp, according to securities filings released Tuesday.
Both companies are up 16 percent or more since President Donald Trump's surprising November election victory, compared with a 9.6 percent gain in the broad Standard & Poor's 500.
Jana Partners, one of the largest U.S. activist investors, added six new healthcare companies to its portfolio, and increased its stake in 11 other companies in the sector by 50 percent or more, including biotechnology holdings such as Nuvasive Inc and Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. Shares of Acadia are up 72 percent since Election Day, while shares of Nuvasive are up 24 percent.
Appaloosa Asset Management, run by billionaire David Tepper, nearly tripled its stake in pharmaceutical company Allergan PLC, to 15.8 percent of its portfolio, according to filings. Shares of the company are up 24.6 percent since the Nov. 8 election.
The winning bets come as equity hedge funds gained 2.1 percent in January, the strongest start to a calendar year for the industry since 2013, according to Hedge Fund Research. Total assets under management in the hedge fund industry reached $3.02 trillion at the end of the fourth quarter, the first time that hedge fund assets surpassed $3 trillion, the research firm said.
Trump's administration is expected to slash financial regulation, helping push the financial companies in the S&P 500 up 22.3 percent since Election Day. Pharmaceutical companies, meanwhile, have rallied on Trump's pledge to speed drug approvals.
The quarterly disclosures of manager stock holdings, in what are known as 13F filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commision, are closely watched as investors look to divine what well-known hedge fund managers are buying and selling. However, the filings are backward looking and come out 45 days after the end of each quarter, meaning that funds could have added to or sold their positions since.
While the position information from the filings does not reflect January activity, fund managers have said they continued to play the same trends.
But not every hedge fund manager made savvy bets in the fourth quarter.
Tiger Global, known in part for taking concentrated positions in companies, sold all of its shares in Apple Inc during the fourth quarter, a position that made up 5.8 percent of its portfolio the quarter before. Shares of the iPhone maker hit a record high Tuesday and are up 16.5 percent since the start of the year.
Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway, meanwhile, more than tripled its position in the company over the same time, to 4.5 percent of its portfolio.
It's that time of the year again where we all get to peak into the portfolios of "money manager gods" and some not so divine hedge fund and asset managers. Before reading this comment, make sure you skim through my last comment going over top funds' activity in Q3 2016.
I will let you read some more articles on 13F filings like these ones:
Icahn raises stakes in Herbalife, Hertz; cuts PayPal, Freeport-McMoran
Soros Fund Management buys new stakes in financials
Soros gets out of gold, Paulson cuts SPDR Gold shares
Buffett's Berkshire takes huge bite of Apple shares, boosts airline stakes
You can also read all the Google articles covering 13F filings to see what those smart "billionaires" bought and sold last quarter.
For me, it's a total waste of time as markets have moved a lot following the elections. I do go over their holdings for ideas (where did they add and why?) but I always look at the daily and weekly charts to determine whether or not to initiate a position.
More importantly, I am consumed by big macro trends, that's what drives my personal trading and why I'm very careful interpreting what the tops funds bought and sold last quarter.
In my last comment covering a CFA Montreal lunch featuring André Bourbonnais, the President and CEO of PSP Investments, I was very adamant about something:
[...] given my views on the reflation chimera and US dollar crisis, I would be actively shorting emerging markets (EEM), Chinese (FXI), Industrials (XLI), Metal & Mining (XME), Energy (XLE) and Financial (XLF) shares on any strength here (book your profits while you still can). The only sector I like and trade now, and it's very volatile, is biotech (XBI) and technology (XLK) is doing well, for now. If you want to sleep well, buy US long bonds (TLT) and thank me later this year.I couldn't care less what Buffett, Soros, Tepper, Dalio, or Jim Simons and other super quant hedge managers are buying and selling, I always take a step back and THINK before initiating any position and I ask myself very tough questions on global inflation versus global deflation.
I realize markets can move in the opposite direction of my long-term deflationary call, but that's alright, it gives me opportunities to trade some sectors like biotech (XBI) and technology (XLK) knowing full well "markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
I listen carefully to the views of smart strategists like François Trahan of Cornerstone Macro who was in town a couple of weeks ago for another CFA Montreal luncheon I covered on my blog where he expressed his bearish views but I've been more bullish than he him in the short-run knowing how all the quants and CTAs will try to squeeze as much juice as they can from the Trump rally.
If you ask me, the biggest risk now in stocks is a market melt-up akin to the folly of 1999-2000 when you would wake up every day to see tech stocks like Microstrategy (MSTR) up 10, 20 or 30% a day. Do you remember those crazy times? I certainly do, it was nuts.
Admittedly, for a lot of structural reasons (global deflation being the biggest one), the chances of another tech bubble are low (even if I'd love to see a biotech bubble), but never say never and remember, despite all the talk of upcoming Fed rate hikes, there is plenty of juice in the financial system to drive risks assets even higher (and this despite the recent tightening of financial conditions).
Most big hedge funds are more worried about Trump's slew of uncertainties and how to navigate these dizzy presidential tweet filled days.
Hedge fund quants engaged in high-frequency, momentum trading love these type of markets because they can squeeze shorts out of their positions and enjoy the ride up.
But data nerds are struggling to gain power at some hedge funds and I'm not sure all these whiz kids are worth the huge investment. I read nonsense from the Wall Street Journal about how Julian Robertson's Tiger Cubs have become Wall Street prey to all these quant funds and how they're investing in quants and risk managers after suffering a terrible year last year.
This is a total waste of time, money and effort. Look at Buffett, he keeps it simple and clean and is killing all these hedge funds and quant funds over the long run.
Last year was a tough year for a lot of marquee hedge funds like Andreas Halvorsen's Viking Global, one of my favorite long-short hedge funds. After posting a 4% loss in 2016, its worst performance since launching back in 1999, Halvorsen outlined important changes to his fund's managerial structure, tightened up risk management and expanded the universe of stocks they cover (read more here).
I met Andreas Halvorsen back in 2002 when he was part of my directional hedge fund portfolio at the Caisse. He is extremely impressive and very competent at what he does. I wouldn't think twice about investing in his fund even after a "disappointing" year (Viking is already doing much better this year).
Another big shot hedge fund star who suffered "relatively" disappointing returns last year was Steve Cohen, the perfect hedge fund predator waiting to get back in the game next year when he'll be back at it again under the new improved SAC Capital.
[Note: Read this comment from an ex-SAC trader to get an inside look at how he used to run his shop. There is a lot of nonsense being written on Cohen.]
Cohen's (family office) firm Point72 Asset Management returned just 1% last year, according to Bloomberg, underperforming both the S&P 500, up 9.5% in 2016, as well as hedge funds in general, which averaged returns of about 5.6% for the year. It was Cohen's worst year on record other than 2008, when he lost nearly 28%—the only year the billionaire trader has lost money, though he did outperform the broader market.
Love him or hate him, however, Cohen is fiercely competitive and he's upfront about what went wrong last year:
[...] in an exclusive interview with Fortune in the fall, Cohen reiterated his desire to not only beat the market, but to be the best among money managers—despite the fact that he doesn't currently compete for business in that industry. "There may be firms out there that are happy being middle-of-the-pack and having modest returns, and maybe don’t work as hard as other people and are perfectly acceptable. That’s not me," he said. "If I’m going to be mediocre—if I’m going to be mediocre, I’m going to question whether I should stay in this business."Ah, the "old hedge fund crowding" excuse except in this instance, Cohen is right, there is a lot of crowding and let me explain to you why. All these pension funds keep listening their lousy consultants so everyone is investing in the same hedge funds and private equity funds.
Indeed, if Cohen wants to begin managing outside money again starting next year — and the consensus in the industry is that he does— investors will want to look closely at how Cohen performed managing his own money these last few years, during which he has implemented strict new compliance procedures and been under the additional close watch of a government-mandated monitor stationed in his own offices. After all, it's Cohen's legacy of best-in-class returns that will lure investors back despite the stigma of the insider trading scandal, provided he can still deliver them.
That's going to be harder, though, if the market continues to behave the way Cohen expects. "The reality is growth is slow, valuations are high—that’s sort of a mix where it's going to be hard to see great returns going forward," he told Fortune during the interview. "If there’s a crash or significant correction, then you have an opportunity again because valuations are more reasonable. But right now, at this point, given the way the world looks, I would say returns are going to be pretty meager for the next couple years."
And Cohen is clearly feeling the pressure. In October, he announced a new bonus structure for his traders, upping the potential payout to 25% of their profits (from 20% previously) but only if they outperform certain benchmarks chosen by the firm. Meanwhile, traders who underperform will receive a lower proportion than they used to.
The additional incentive is designed to attract new talent to Point72, which has recently stepped up its recruiting efforts as Cohen himself focuses more on training and mentoring and less on trading stocks himself. After long managing the "big book"— the largest portfolio at his firm — Cohen has lately pared back his personal allocation. His trades still account for as much as 5% of Point72's profits, but that's down from 15% some 10 years ago.
Early last year, Cohen blamed a specific phenomenon for a patch of poor performance: Hedge fund crowding —or too many other hedge fund managers piling into the stocks he owned.When those other funds sold out en masse, Cohen said his "worst fears were realized" as he became "collateral damage," losing 8% in just four days in February 2016.
Cohen managed to recover during the remainder of the year, but only just enough to stay in positive territory.
The top hedge funds get fed the same trades from their investment bankers which cover them closely and they also talk to each other, so they feed each other a lot of trades and have the same quantitative and analytical approach to their portfolios. In short, there is a lot of group think in the hedge fund industry, much more than there ever was so it's hardly surprising to see lackluster returns among marquee funds.
Still, Cohen knows all this, he is a trader, one of the best traders ever, and let me show you something to understand why. Look at Point72's top holdings as of the end of last quarter (click on image):
Notice how Cohen's family office increased its stake in Tesaro (TSRO) significantly in Q4 right before the stock surged? (click on image)
Tesaro is a biotech focusing on cancer treatments and it's part of the top holdings of the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI). It also could fetch north of $200 per share in a rumored takeover, Credit Suisse and Leerink analysts suggested last week.
When did Point72 significantly increase its stake in Tesaro? I reckon it was right before the election when I wrote about America's Brexit or biotech moment.
So, if you ask me, Cohen made one the best stock trades late last year, significantly increasing his stake in Tesaro at the right time, and I'm convinced he's going to come back strong this year and so will George Soros who lost close to a billion dollars after Trump won, loading up on big bets against the stock market at the wrong time (he will load up on big short positions at the right time in late Q1 or early Q2).
Would you like me to go over all the top trades I saw and more importantly, where I see big money in the stock market going forward?
Perhaps you'd like me to hold your hand and give you a lollipop too? I spoon feed all you enough information and I'm busy trading Leo's biotech watch list (click on each of three images):
Unlike these hedge fund and private equity "gods", I can't charge dumb pensions 2 & 20 for my comments or shaft you with other fees. In fact, if I'm brutally honest with myself, I'm the biggest dummy in the world offering you all this information for free!
Hope you enjoyed reading this comment, please remember to show your financial support for the work that goes into these comments by donating or subscribing to my blog on the top right-hand side under my picture.
You can read many articles on 13F filings on Barron's, Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Forbes and other sites like Insider Monkey, Holdings Channel, and whale wisdom. Interestingly, Insider Monkey now compiles a list of top 100 hedge funds based on tracking their long positions on each quarterly 13-F filing. This list can be found here.
My favorite service for tracking top funds is Symmetric run by Sam Abbas and David Moon but there are other services offered by market folly and you can track tweets from Hedgemind and subscribe to their services too. I also like Dataroma which offers a lot of excellent and updated information on top funds and a lot more on insider activity and crowded trades (for free).
In addition to this, I regularly look at the YTD performance of stocks, the 12-month leaders, the 52-week highs and 52-week lows. I also like to track the most shorted stocks and highest yielding stocks in various exchanges and I have a list of stocks I track in over 100 industries/ themes to see what is moving in real time.
Enjoy going through the holdings of top funds below but be careful, it's a dynamic market where things constantly change and even the best of the best managers find it tough making money in these schizoid markets.
Top multi-strategy and event driven hedge funds
As the name implies, these hedge funds invest across a wide variety of hedge fund strategies like L/S Equity, L/S credit, global macro, convertible arbitrage, risk arbitrage, volatility arbitrage, merger arbitrage, distressed debt and statistical pair trading.
Unlike fund of hedge funds, the fees are lower because there is a single manager managing the portfolio, allocating across various alpha strategies as opportunities arise. Below are links to the holdings of some top multi-strategy hedge funds I track closely:
1) Citadel Advisors
2) Balyasny Asset Management
3) Farallon Capital Management
4) Peak6 Investments
5) Kingdon Capital Management
6) Millennium Management
7) Eton Park Capital Management
8) HBK Investments
9) Highbridge Capital Management
10) Highland Capital Management
11) Pentwater Capital Management
12) Och-Ziff Capital Management
13) Pine River Capital Capital Management
14) Carlson Capital Management
15) Magnetar Capital
16) Mount Kellett Capital Management
17) Whitebox Advisors
18) QVT Financial
19) Paloma Partners
20) Perry Capital
21) Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisors
22) York Capital Management
Top Global Macro Hedge Funds and Family Offices
These hedge funds gained notoriety because of George Soros, arguably the best and most famous hedge fund manager. Global macros typically invest in bond and currency markets but the top macro funds are able to invest across all asset classes, including equities.
George Soros, Carl Icahn, Stanley Druckenmiller, Julian Robertson and now Steve Cohen have converted their hedge funds into family offices to manage their own money and basically only answer to themselves (that is my definition of true investment success).
1) Soros Fund Management
2) Icahn Associates
3) Duquesne Family Office (Stanley Druckenmiller)
4) Bridgewater Associates
5) Pointstate Capital Partners
6) Caxton Associates (Bruce Kovner)
7) Tudor Investment Corporation
8) Tiger Management (Julian Robertson)
9) Moore Capital Management
10) Point72 Asset Management (Steve Cohen)
11) Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Trust (Michael Larson, the man behind Gates)
Top Market Neutral, Quant and CTA Hedge Funds
These funds use sophisticated mathematical algorithms to initiate their positions. They typically only hire PhDs in mathematics, physics and computer science to develop their algorithms. Market neutral funds will engage in pair trading to remove market beta.
1) Alyeska Investment Group
2) Renaissance Technologies
3) DE Shaw & Co.
4) Two Sigma Investments
5) Numeric Investors
6) Analytic Investors
7) Winton Capital Management
8) Graham Capital Management
9) SABA Capital Management
10) Quantitative Investment Management
11) Oxford Asset Management
Top Deep Value, Activist, Event Driven and Distressed Debt Funds
These are among the top long-only funds that everyone tracks. They include funds run by legendary investors like Warren Buffet, Seth Klarman, Ron Baron and Ken Fisher. Activist investors like to make investments in companies where management lacks the proper incentives to maximize shareholder value. They differ from traditional L/S hedge funds by having a more concentrated portfolio. Distressed debt funds typically invest in debt of a company but sometimes take equity positions.
1) Abrams Capital Management
2) Berkshire Hathaway
3) Baron Partners Fund (click here to view other Baron funds)
4) BHR Capital
5) Fisher Asset Management
6) Baupost Group
7) Fairfax Financial Holdings
8) Fairholme Capital
9) Trian Fund Management
10) Gotham Asset Management
11) Fir Tree Partners
12) Elliott Associates
13) Jana Partners
14) Gabelli Funds
15) Highfields Capital Management
16) Eminence Capital
17) Pershing Square Capital Management
18) New Mountain Vantage Advisers
19) Atlantic Investment Management
20) Scout Capital Management
21) Third Point
22) Marcato Capital Management
23) Glenview Capital Management
24) Apollo Management
25) Avenue Capital
26) Armistice Capital
27) Blue Harbor Group
28) Brigade Capital Management
29) Caspian Capital
30) Kerrisdale Advisers
31) Knighthead Capital Management
32) Relational Investors
33) Roystone Capital Management
34) Scopia Capital Management
35) Schneider Capital Management
36) ValueAct Capital
37) Vulcan Value Partners
38) Okumus Fund Management
39) Eagle Capital Management
40) Sasco Capital
41) Lyrical Asset Management
42) Gabelli Funds
43) Brave Warrior Advisors
44) Matrix Asset Advisors
45) Jet Capital
46) Conatus Capital Management
47) Starboard Value
48) Pzena Investment Management
Top Long/Short Hedge Funds
These hedge funds go long shares they think will rise in value and short those they think will fall. Along with global macro funds, they command the bulk of hedge fund assets. There are many L/S funds but here is a small sample of some well known funds.
1) Adage Capital Management
2) Appaloosa LP
3) Greenlight Capital
4) Maverick Capital
5) Pointstate Capital Partners
6) Marathon Asset Management
7) JAT Capital Management
8) Coatue Management
9) Omega Advisors (Leon Cooperman)
10) Artis Capital Management
11) Fox Point Capital Management
12) Jabre Capital Partners
13) Lone Pine Capital
14) Paulson & Co.
15) Bronson Point Management
16) Hoplite Capital Management
17) LSV Asset Management
18) Hussman Strategic Advisors
19) Cantillon Capital Management
20) Brookside Capital Management
21) Blue Ridge Capital
22) Iridian Asset Management
23) Clough Capital Partners
24) GLG Partners LP
25) Cadence Capital Management
26) Karsh Capital Management
27) New Mountain Vantage
28) Andor Capital Management
29) Silver Point Capital
30) Steadfast Capital Management
31) Brookside Capital Management
32) PAR Capital Capital Management
33) Gilder, Gagnon, Howe & Co
34) Brahman Capital
35) Bridger Management
36) Kensico Capital Management
37) Kynikos Associates
38) Soroban Capital Partners
39) Passport Capital
40) Pennant Capital Management
41) Mason Capital Management
42) Tide Point Capital Management
43) Sirios Capital Management
44) Hayman Capital Management
45) Highside Capital Management
46) Tremblant Capital Group
47) Decade Capital Management
48) T. Boone Pickens BP Capital
49) Bloom Tree Partners
50) Cadian Capital Management
51) Matrix Capital Management
52) Senvest Partners
53) Falcon Edge Capital Management
54) Melvin Capital Partners
55) Owl Creek Asset Management
56) Portolan Capital Management
57) Proxima Capital Management
58) Tiger Global Management
59) Tourbillon Capital Partners
60) Impala Asset Management
61) Valinor Management
62) Viking Global Investors
63) Marshall Wace
64) Suvretta Capital Management
65) York Capital Management
66) Zweig-Dimenna Associates
Top Sector and Specialized Funds
I like tracking activity funds that specialize in real estate, biotech, healthcare, retail and other sectors like mid, small and micro caps. Here are some funds worth tracking closely.
1) Armistice Capital
2) Baker Brothers Advisors
3) Palo Alto Investors
4) Broadfin Capital
5) Healthcor Management
6) Orbimed Advisors
7) Deerfield Management
8) BB Biotech AG
9) Ghost Tree Capital
10) Sectoral Asset Management
11) Oracle Investment Management
12) Perceptive Advisors
13) Consonance Capital Management
14) Camber Capital Management
15) Redmile Group
16) RTW Investments
17) Bridger Capital Management
18) Southeastern Asset Management
19) Bridgeway Capital Management
20) Cohen & Steers
21) Cardinal Capital Management
22) Munder Capital Management
23) Diamondhill Capital Management
24) Cortina Asset Management
25) Geneva Capital Management
26) Criterion Capital Management
27) Daruma Capital Management
28) 12 West Capital Management
29) RA Capital Management
30) Sarissa Capital Management
31) SIO Capital Management
32) Senzar Asset Management
33) Sphera Funds
34) Tang Capital Management
35) Thomson Horstmann & Bryant
36) Venbio Select Advisors
37) Ecor1 Capital
Mutual Funds and Asset Managers
Mutual funds and large asset managers are not hedge funds but their sheer size makes them important players. Some asset managers have excellent track records. Below, are a few funds investors track closely.
1) Fidelity
2) Blackrock Fund Advisors
3) Wellington Management
4) AQR Capital Management
5) Sands Capital Management
6) Brookfield Asset Management
7) Dodge & Cox
8) Eaton Vance Management
9) Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co.
10) Geode Capital Management
11) Goldman Sachs Group
12) JP Morgan Chase& Co.
13) Morgan Stanley
14) Manulife Asset Management
15) RCM Capital Management
16) UBS Asset Management
17) Barclays Global Investor
18) Epoch Investment Partners
19) Thornburg Investment Management
20) Legg Mason Capital Management
21) Kornitzer Capital Management
22) Batterymarch Financial Management
23) Tocqueville Asset Management
24) Neuberger Berman
25) Winslow Capital Management
26) Herndon Capital Management
27) Artisan Partners
28) Great West Life Insurance Management
29) Lazard Asset Management
30) Janus Capital Management
31) Franklin Resources
32) Capital Research Global Investors
33) T. Rowe Price
34) First Eagle Investment Management
35) Frontier Capital Management
36) Akre Capital Management
Canadian Asset Managers
Here are a few Canadian funds I track closely:
1) Letko, Brosseau and Associates
2) Fiera Capital Corporation
3) West Face Capital
4) Hexavest
5) 1832 Asset Management
6) Jarislowsky, Fraser
7) Connor, Clark & Lunn Investment Management
8) TD Asset Management
9) CIBC Asset Management
10) Beutel, Goodman & Co
11) Greystone Managed Investments
12) Mackenzie Financial Corporation
13) Great West Life Assurance Co
14) Guardian Capital
15) Scotia Capital
16) AGF Investments
17) Montrusco Bolton
18) Venator Capital Management
Pension Funds, Endowment Funds, and Sovereign Wealth Funds
Last but not least, I track activity of some pension funds, endowment funds and sovereign wealth funds. I like to focus on funds that invest in top hedge funds and have internal alpha managers. Below, a sample of pension and endowment funds I track closely:
1) Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMco)
2) Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan
3) Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
4) Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec
5) OMERS Administration Corp.
6) British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (bcIMC)
7) Public Sector Pension Investment Board (PSP Investments)
8) PGGM Investments
9) APG All Pensions Group
10) California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS)
11) California State Teachers Retirement System (CalSTRS)
12) New York State Common Fund
13) New York State Teachers Retirement System
14) State Board of Administration of Florida Retirement System
15) State of Wisconsin Investment Board
16) State of New Jersey Common Pension Fund
17) Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio
18) STRS Ohio
19) Teacher Retirement System of Texas
20) Virginia Retirement Systems
21) TIAA CREF investment Management
22) Harvard Management Co.
23) Norges Bank
24) Nordea Investment Management
25) Korea Investment Corp.
26) Singapore Temasek Holdings
27) Yale Endowment Fund
Below, CNBC's Leslie Picker takes a closer look at hedge fund gains under President Trump, saying they are gaining traction.
I agree with the guy at the end who said the "gig is up for hedge funds" (not top funds) but he then said something about "passive investing is here to stay" not realizing how the big alpha bubble migrated into a big beta bubble which will implode, leaving many wondering why.