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Stocks Caught in Cross Currents?

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Claire Ballentine and Vildana Hajric of Bloomberg report that US stocks drift mostly higher:
U.S. stocks drifted mostly higher in thin trading as investors digested this week’s initial burst of corporate earnings, economic data and coronavirus news. The dollar weakened and crude oil fluctuated.

The S&P 500 edged higher, led by gains in utilities, health care and real estate, while the communication services and energy sectors slumped. Trading volume was almost 30% below the average over the prior 30 days. Netflix Inc. sank as much as 8.2% after saying it expects to sign up just half the subscribers Wall Street expected in the third quarter. A University of Michigan survey showed U.S. consumer sentiment slumped in July, missing all forecasts, after the resurgent coronavirus nearly wiped out any emerging optimism around reopenings.

“There are a lot of cross currents,” said John Porter, chief investment officer of equities at Mellon Investments. “You’ve had such an incredible run in the growth stocks relative to value. It certainly sets the stage of a sell-on-the-news reaction. They seem to have almost unfulfillable expectations built into these prices short term. Every issue in the market, the answer to the problem seems to be technology.”

Investors are closely watching to see how the broader technology sector reacts to Netflix’s weaker outlook. The Nasdaq Composite has managed to go two months without posting back-to-back declines, but that’s now under threat as investors question the resilience of tech’s searing rally.

“We’re going to continue to see a bifurcated economy, bifurcated market, unless we get rid of this virus and everything goes away for some reason,” said David Yepez, a money manager at Exencial Wealth Advisors. “If we find a vaccine and, you know, that will be the point where value will start to outperform.”

In Europe, traders are holding out hope for policy makers to conclude a stimulus pact. German Chancellor Angela Merkel raised doubts on Friday that European Union leaders would be able to agree this week on a landmark 750 billion-euro ($855 billion) recovery fund to help their economies heal from the pandemic. Positive earnings from Daimler AG and Ericsson AB pulled carmakers and tech stocks higher.

Elsewhere, Chinese shares were steady after a more than 4% slide on Thursday, with investors assessing moves by policy makers to tame signs of exuberance.
Late Friday afternoon, markets are flat to slightly up, it's been a drifter day after a week where tech stocks pulled back.

Last Friday, I discussed whether another tech wreck is headed our way. Large mega cap tech stocks are way overbought, overvalued and were due for a pause. Moreover, there are clear signs of another bubble developing there:







What is driving all this nonsense? What else? The Fed cranking up its balance sheet and changing its policy to stay accommodative for a lot longer:





To be blunt, the Fed wants everyone to keep buying risk assets and that's why you're seeing all Risk On trades dominating the financial landscape.

Tech stocks, emerging markets, commodity currencies, high yield bonds are all rallying as if the world is going to experience a V-shaped recovery.

It won't, there's an insolvency crisis headed our way:









Moreover, the news on the health front continues to deteriorate:



But there is some good news (hopefully) coming our way next week.

AstraZeneca's shares (AZN) rose this week after a report that a medical journal will release positive news on the coronavirus vaccine the company is developing with University of Oxford researchers.



It looks promising and the market loves vaccine news, especially positive vaccine news even if it's a rehash of old news.

And judging by the way some vaccine biotech stocks have been trading lately, I'd say Uncle Fed has succeeded in keeping animal spirits alive and well:





Your eyes aren't deceiving you, these spectacular gains are year-to-date during a global pandemic!

Greed is good, especially if you pick the right biotech stocks working on a coronavirus vaccine that are up 3,000% or 4,000% year-to-date.

This market is a joke, concentrated pockets of speculation in small cap biotech shares and overcrowding in large cap tech companies.

No wonder active managers are getting killed, if you're not picking speculative trash or chasing a handful of mega cap tech shares, you're severely underperforming the market.

Anyway, here is the performance of the S&P sectors this week:


As you can see, Industrials (XLI), Materials (XLB) and Healthcare (XLV) led the gains while Information Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) posted the biggest declines (Amazon makes up 24% of the Consumer Discretionary ETF).

Below, David Rubenstein, the co-founder of the Carlyle Group and host of "Leadership Live,"joins"Influencers with Andy Serwer" to discuss whether the stock market can keep climbing, who will win the presidential election, and why private equity gets a bad rap.

Rubenstein warns against bullish near-term market expectations, citing a disconnect between rising equity prices and a sluggish economy. “It's a fool's errand to go into the market now thinking that it's a bottom and you're going to go up from here,” Rubenstein told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday. “I think there's going to be a lot of ups and downs.”

And Oksana Aronov, alternative fixed-income strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, discusses the impact of global central bank policies on equity market valuations. She speaks on "Bloomberg The Open."

She warns: "Generally central banks continue to run the show and investors need to be really cautious here." And adds: "We are going into a much more difficlt second half and have a number of fiscal cliffs upon us over the next few weeks."

Third, early-stage human trial data on a vaccine being developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University will be published on July 20, The Lancet medical journal said on Wednesday.

The vaccine candidate is already in large-scale Phase III human trials to assess whether it can protect against COVID-19, but its developers have yet to report Phase I results which would show whether it is safe and whether or not it induces an immune response.

Let's keep our fingers and toes crossed and remember, this is just one of many vaccines being developed. The problem? It won't save the economy from the coming insolvency crisis but it will give everyone something to look forward to in what has otherwise been a really miserable year.

Lastly, let me end with some more good news. Captain Sir Tom Moore has been knighted in the Queen's first official engagement in person since lockdown:
The investiture to honour the 100-year-old, who raised more than £32m for NHS charities, was staged in a "unique ceremony" at Windsor Castle.

He has been recognised for walking more than 100 laps of his garden in Marston Moretaine, Bedfordshire.

Capt Sir Tom, originally from Keighley, West Yorkshire, said it was "an absolutely outstanding day".

"I am absolutely overawed," he said,

"This is such a high award and to get it from Her Majesty as well - what more can anyone wish for? This has been an absolutely magnificent day for me."
What a well deserved honor for a truly great man, I'm very happy for him and his family.




Canadian Pensions Championing Change?

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Mark Machin, President & CEO of Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments) has been named a 2020 Catalyst Honours Champion for delivering a progressive workplace that advances women into leadership:
“On behalf of the Board of Directors and CPP Investments’ employees, I congratulate Mark on this important, well-deserved recognition,” said Heather Munroe-Blum, Chairperson, CPP Investments. “Under Mark’s leadership, CPP Investments has taken a prominent lead in advancing gender equity with real results, creating long-term value for the CPP Fund, and ultimately for CPP contributors and beneficiaries,” she added.

CPP Investments achieved its business goal of equal representation of women in hiring in 2019 and women now represent 46% of its global workforce. At present, 36% of the organization’s Senior Management Team and more than half of its Board members are female.

To influence the number of women on the boards of companies in which it invests, CPP Investments introduced a new Global Board Gender Diversity Voting Practice in 2019. Through this initiative, CPP Investments votes against the chair of the nominating committee at investee public companies if the board has no female directors and there are no extenuating circumstances; during the 2019 proxy season, it voted against the election of 626 directors globally.

“Attracting, developing and retaining talented women is particularly important to CPP Investments’ success as a high-performing global organization,” said Mr. Machin. “I’m honoured to receive this award from Catalyst, which is great recognition of the entire organization’s commitment to diversity. It also acknowledges the outcomes we are delivering not only within CPP Investments but also in the organizations in which we invest,” he added.

The Catalyst Honours 2020 conference, and formal recognition of champions, takes place virtually over three days beginning October 6th, 2020, in Toronto.

“We salute Mark Machin for setting the pace for investors globally who believe in the power of gender diversity as a critical contributor to superior business outcomes,” said Tanya van Biesen, Executive Director, Canada, Catalyst.

Mark Machin is one of six Canadian executives receiving the honour.
Mark Machin deserves this honor as he has done a lot to hire and promote more women at CPP Investments at all levels and to improve the representation of women on the boards of the companies they invest in.

Women now represent 46% of the global workforce and more importantly, 36% of the organization's Senior Management Team.

More than half the board members are women but I don't consider this an achievement per se because the Act that governs CPP Investments explicitly states for equal representation of men and women on the board and that will never change.

Canadian pensions have all been promoting diversity and inclusion recently:























This is just a small sample, not all of Canada's pensions have a presence on Twitter (they should) but others are posting similar messages on LinkedIn and in their annual report.

Diversity & inclusion are very hot themes this summer following the death of George Floyd and the ensuing BLM protests in the US demanding more racial equality.

On Friday, we lost John Lewis, a towering figure of the civil rights movement and a longtime US congressman. Lewis died at age 80 after a long battle with cancer.

President Obama wrote a beautiful statement to express his sorrow and admiration of Rep. Lewis:
America is a constant work in progress. What gives each new generation purpose is to take up the unfinished work of the last and carry it further — to speak out for what’s right, to challenge an unjust status quo, and to imagine a better world.

John Lewis — one of the original Freedom Riders, chairman of the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee, the youngest speaker at the March on Washington, leader of the march from Selma to Montgomery, Member of Congress representing the people of Georgia for 33 years — not only assumed that responsibility, he made it his life’s work. He loved this country so much that he risked his life and his blood so that it might live up to its promise. And through the decades, he not only gave all of himself to the cause of freedom and justice, but inspired generations that followed to try to live up to his example.

Considering his enormous impact on the history of this country, what always struck those who met John was his gentleness and humility. Born into modest means in the heart of the Jim Crow South, he understood that he was just one of a long line of heroes in the struggle for racial justice. Early on, he embraced the principles of nonviolent resistance and civil disobedience as the means to bring about real change in this country, understanding that such tactics had the power not only to change laws, but to change hearts and minds as well.

In so many ways, John’s life was exceptional. But he never believed that what he did was more than any citizen of this country might do. He believed that in all of us, there exists the capacity for great courage, a longing to do what’s right, a willingness to love all people, and to extend to them their God-given rights to dignity and respect. And it’s because he saw the best in all of us that he will continue, even in his passing, to serve as a beacon in that long journey towards a more perfect union.

I first met John when I was in law school, and I told him then that he was one of my heroes. Years later, when I was elected a U.S. Senator, I told him that I stood on his shoulders. When I was elected President of the United States, I hugged him on the inauguration stand before I was sworn in and told him I was only there because of the sacrifices he made. And through all those years, he never stopped providing wisdom and encouragement to me and Michelle and our family. We will miss him dearly.

It’s fitting that the last time John and I shared a public forum was at a virtual town hall with a gathering of young activists who were helping to lead this summer’s demonstrations in the wake of George Floyd’s death. Afterwards, I spoke to him privately, and he could not have been prouder of their efforts — of a new generation standing up for freedom and equality, a new generation intent on voting and protecting the right to vote, a new generation running for political office. I told him that all those young people — of every race, from every background and gender and sexual orientation — they were his children. They had learned from his example, even if they didn’t know it. They had understood through him what American citizenship requires, even if they had heard of his courage only through history books.

Not many of us get to live to see our own legacy play out in such a meaningful, remarkable way. John Lewis did. And thanks to him, we now all have our marching orders — to keep believing in the possibility of remaking this country we love until it lives up to its full promise.
What does all this have to do with pensions, diversity & inclusion?

Well, we all live in a society and those in power have important choices to make, defining choices which shape our society in profound ways.

People in power can no longer pay lip service to gender, racial and other equality, not in the age of social media, not if they want to be part of a better, more progressive future.

Sure, they can ignore social issues but I firmly believe true leaders are people who are fearless and aren't afraid to take a stance on important issues, even if it means facing harsh criticism from within the ranks.

Moreover, let there be no doubt, organizations which promote diversity & inclusion at all levels of their organization will come out ahead in more ways than we can imagine over the next decade.

Those that don't will fall behind and this represents a huge risk for pensions with a long investment horizon.

So my message in this short post isn't to criticize Canada's large pensions for not doing enough to hire and promote more women, visible minorities, LBGTQ members, aboriginals and people with disabilities at their organization.

My message is simply to remember people like John Lewis, Martin Luther King and countless others "champions of change" who have shaped our society in profound ways and remember that with great power comes great responsibility. Saying you want change isn't the same as taking action to make that change happen.

Like President Obama states, America is a constant work in progress, so are pensions and other organizations that make up the fabric of our society.

So, as we remember Congressman John Lewis, let's also remember the message he and other giants have taught us, namely, that the struggle for a more just and equal society is worth it but it's far from easy and there will be plenty of roadblocks along the way.

We should all espouse a more progressive workplace that advances women into leadership but not just women. We need to take a hard look at workplaces and ask ourselves hard questions as to why we aren't seeing a better reflection of our society at all levels of each organization.

Below, Rep. John Lewis, a Civil Rights hero, died of pancreatic cancer Friday night. A supporter of civic engagement, including the ongoing global Black Lives Matter protests, Lewis had been beaten and arrested several times during the Civil Rights Movement. Known for powerful speeches, he advocated for getting into “good trouble” all his life. He was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2011. Watch this clip to learn more about this iconic civil rights figure.

Update: Michel Leduc, Senior Managing Director - Global Head of Public Affairs & Communications at CPP Investments, shared this with me after reading this comment:
Another insightful, timely and “au courant” blog – thank you.

Just a quick clarification. In your summary you note that the CPP Investment Board Act provides that:
“More than half the board members are women but I don't consider this an achievement per se because the Act that governs CPP Investments explicitly states for equal representation of men and women on the board and that will never change.”
However, I am not aware of such a statutory requirement.

To the best of my knowledge – in my efforts to closely be following the work of our Board of Directors – gender (and other forms of diversity) is a matter of business/governance conviction. My understanding is that the Act would in fact support a very uniform Board.

Irrespective of legislation, diversity is a deliberate, methodical choice by the Board with a view to optimal governance of a national Fund that invests in 50+ countries on behalf of one of the most diverse countries in the world. Clearly, broad perspectives from wide experiences and backgrounds is needed to oversee the organization as it works hard to deliver above-average returns in a world fraught with risk.

Narrow thinking, in our context, is tantamount to disaster.
I thank Michel for his insights and obviously stand corrected. When I worked at PSP Investments years ago, someone at the Treasury Board told me the Acts that govern CPPIB and PSP demand equal gender representation on the board of directors. I guess I was wrong about that.





Barb Zvan Named UPP's Inaugural CEO

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The UPP Board of Trustees just announced the selection of Barbara Zvan as the inaugural President and CEO of the UPP:
Established on January 1, 2020, the UPP is a new defined benefit jointly sponsored pension plan (JSPP) designed to enhance the long-term sustainability of Ontario university pension plans. The JSPP model means shared governance between the employer and employee sponsors, giving members a new level of involvement in the governance of their pension plan.

"Barbara Zvan is uniquely qualified to take on this important role. Her leadership in the JSPP field and in responsible and sustainable investment is incomparable," said Gale Rubenstein, Chair of the UPP Board of Trustees and a Partner at Goodmans LLP. "The Board and I are delighted Barbara has agreed to help lead the UPP as we take our next major step forward to building a sustainable, defined benefit pension plan for Ontario's university sector."

The immediate priority of the CEO and Board of Trustees is to prepare for July 1, 2021 when, conditional on regulatory approvals, the new plan will be fully operational and plan administration – including benefit payments to members and investment of assets – legally becomes the responsibility of the Board.

"I am thrilled to be taking on this new role with the UPP," said Ms. Zvan, former Chief Risk and Strategy Officer (CRSO) for the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan (OTPP). "The successful launch and growth of this new JSPP will help ensure pension sustainability for university sector employees. I look forward to providing high quality service to plan members as we move ahead with this exciting initiative."

Trained as an actuary, Ms. Zvan joined OTPP in 1995 as an assistant portfolio manager. As CRSO, she supported the Plan Sponsors in plan design decisions and the Board in determining the appropriate investment benchmarks and risk appetite. She crafted OTPP's responsible investing and climate change strategy and directed the organization's enterprise and operational risk management approach.

Ms. Zvan currently serves on the board of the Global Risk Institute in Financial Services, the Responsible Investment Association and the advisory board of the Institute of Sustainable Finance at the Smith School of Business, Queen's University. She is also a member of the Advisory Committee for the new 'Investing to Address Climate Change' Charter, thus far adopted by fifteen Canadian universities, as well as a member of the industry-led Task Force for a Resilient Recovery. She previously was the Chair of the International Centre of Pension Management (a partner of the Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto) and the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board's Investor Advisory Group. She was one of four appointees to the Government of Canada's Expert Panel on Sustainable Finance and played a significant role in creating the G7 Investor Leadership Network.

The UPP's Joint Sponsors are the unions and faculty associations representing the members, and the three founding universities - Queen's University, the University of Guelph and the University of Toronto. The Board of Trustees is comprised of six trustees selected by the Employer Sponsor, six by the Employee Sponsor, one by non-unionized members, and a Chair selected jointly by the Sponsors. The UPP's joint sponsorship and shared governance and risk ensures a high degree of accountability and transparency, putting the interests of plan members at the centre of every decision the Board of Trustees makes.

The UPP will replace five pension plans now in place at the three founding universities. Over time the UPP will serve other Ontario universities who wish to join, with the support of their pension plan members.
This afternoon, I got a chance to talk with Barb Zvan, the inaugural President & CEO of UPP.

I want to begin by congratulating her and thanking her for calling me. I'm very happy for her, I think she will be an outstanding inaugural CEO for this new pension plan.

Truth be told, this is a very new organization but the groundwork to make UPP a reality took years of consultations.

Jim Leech, Ontario Teachers' former President and CEO who is now Chancellor of Queen's University, has been talking to me about this entity for a few years. He was instrumental in getting off the ground.

Ron Mock who succeeded Jim now sits on the Board of UPP. I told Barb that I was surprised because Ron told me he never wants to sit on any board after he retired from Teachers'. "He told us all that too but he also wanted to be involved with universities and he decided to join this board."

Good thing, Ron has a ton of knowledge and experience, worked closely with Barb at Teachers' and I'm sure he looked favorably at this appointment, as did Jim Leech and Gale Rubenstein, the Chair of the UPP Board of Trustees and a Partner at Goodmans LLP (see an earlier comment of mine here).

Back to Barb. She told me this is "truly a start-up.”.

She has a year to lay the groundwork before the new plan will be fully operational and plan administration – including benefit payments to members and investment of assets – legally becomes the responsibility of the Board.

She needs to hire a CFO and focus on member services. She will be thinking of portfolio construction and setting a strategic direction for this new organization.

I told he the fun part of any pension is the ramp-up. I was there at PSP back in 2003 when the organization was still young and loved that phase before it grew bigger and more bureaucratic.

Barb agreed. She joined Ontario Teachers' back in 1995 after Claude Lamorureux, the inaugural CEO, was appointed back in 1990. "Bob Bertram joined in 1991, then Leo de Bever and those of us who were there back then got involved early and were part of the ramp-up."

Barb actually reported to four CEOs at Teachers': Claude Lamoureux, Jim Leech, Ron Mock and briefly for Jo Taylor before she left Teachers'.

She has tremendous experience in risk, strategy,  portfolio construction and has worked on several high profile files like the Expert Panel on Sustainable Finance and spearheaded the diversity file for Ron Mock and Michael Sabia for long-term institutions.

In short, this lady is brilliant, she really is, but she is soft spoken, humble, a hard worker and a genuinely nice lady with a ton of significant experience.

She believes in well-governed DB pensions and I think UPP picked the right person to lead this organization during this ramp-up phase. Barb will hire the right team, get the culture right and make sure diversity and inclusion are respected at all levels of the organization.

She told me she has a great Board and looks forward working closely with them to pass through some final regulatory hurdles before the new plan becomes fully operational next year. (She also spoke fondly of Annie Messier who once sat on the Board of Teachers').

Anyway, Barb told me UPP will start off with roughly $10 billion and UTAM and the investment offices of Queen's and Guelph will continue managing their respective endowment funds.

Barb now joins CNID's Marlene Puffer (another brilliant and nice lady) as the only other female CEO of a major Canadian pension plan. Hopefully, they will set the precedent for others to join this elite group over the next decade.

Lastly, I know I speak for everyone reading this comment when I wish Barb Zvan a lot of success and happiness in this new role, it's a great way to end a long and successful career.

Below, Barb Zvan discusses some of the findings from the Interim Report before they published the Final Report last June, Mobilizing Finance for Sustainable Growth.

Barb, Kim Thomassin, Tiff Macklem and Andy Chrisholm worked very hard to produce that final report but Kim told me: "Barb did most of the hard work". Kim is extremely happy Barb was named the inaugural CEO of UPP and she agrees with me, she will do an outstanding job.

I also embedded a clip about UPP. You can read more about this organization here. Take the time to read about its Board, funding and joint sponsorship here.

BCI's QuadReal Launches its Green Bond Framework

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QuadReal Property Group, BCI's real estate subsidiary, launched its Green Bond Framework:
QuadReal Property Group ("QuadReal") is proud to announce today its Green Bond Framework to finance sustainable investments and projects through BCI QuadReal Realty ("BQR"). BQR is the primary issuing entity of unsecured notes for British Columbia Investment Management Corporation's ("BCI") real estate program. BCI is a Canadian leader in investment fund management that provides services to British Columbia's public sector.

"When QuadReal was launched, we established the principles of responsible investing and management," said Dennis Lopez, QuadReal's Chief Executive Officer. "QuadReal's Green Bond Framework demonstrates our approach to how we select and execute our projects to achieve the goal of having a positive impact on the environment."

QuadReal's Green Bond Framework has been reviewed by Sustainalytics, a global leader in providing environmental, social and governance (ESG) research and analysis. Sustainalytics issued a second party opinion confirming that QuadReal's Green Bond Framework is credible and impactful, and aligns with the International Capital Market Association Green Bond Principles 2018.

QuadReal is committed to providing ongoing reporting and transparency and will provide annual updates on its website until net proceeds of a green bond issuance are fully allocated to Eligible Green Projects.  A copy of QuadReal's Green Bond Framework and Sustainalytics' second party opinion is available at www.quadreal.com/sustainability/green-bonds.  For more information about QuadReal's ongoing commitment to sustainability including its approach, progress, and actions and related documents, please visit: www.quadreal.com/sustainability.

About QuadReal Property Group and BCI QuadReal Realty

Headquartered in Vancouver, Canada, QuadReal is a global real estate investment, operating and development company. QuadReal manages the real estate and mortgage programs of BCI, one of Canada's largest asset managers with a $153.4 billion portfolio as of March 31, 2019.

QuadReal seeks to deliver strong investment returns while creating sustainable environments that bring value to the people and communities it serves. Now and for generations to come.

BCI QuadReal Realty is an actively managed pooled investment portfolio of real estate and real estate-related investments. All the assets of BQR are held in trust by BCI and managed by QuadReal Property Group. BQR's holdings span property types, geographic locations, investment sizes and risk profiles. BQR's investment strategy is to be well-diversified and to hold quality properties and investments that will perform well across multiple economic cycles. BQR was formerly known as Realpool Investment Fund.
There are three important documents to review in regards to QuadReal’s Green Bond Framework:
Take the time to review all three documents including the last one which is the opinion of Sustainalytics.

Below, the evaluation summary from Sustainalytics:


In short, QuadReal’s real estate portfolio is promoting improved environmental performance as well as support for innovation that makes buildings more resilient to adverse climate change impacts.

The Green Bond Framework defines eligibility criteria in six areas:
  1. Green Buildings
  2. Renewable Energy
  3. Resource and Energy Efficiency
  4. Pollution Prevention and Control
  5. Clean Transportation
  6. Climate Change Adaptation
QuadReal engaged Sustainalytics to review the Framework and provide an independent second-party opinion on the Framework’s environmental credentials and its alignment with the Green Bond Principles 2018.

In terms of reporting, Sustainalytics' report states the following:
  • QuadReal intends to publish a green bond report annually until full allocation.
  • This report will provide details of the allocation of green bond proceeds to eligible green project categories and will contain relevant metrics associated with the eligible green projects such as, achieving green building certification by building or square footage, annual energy saving (in MWh), water consumption reduction (in thousand cubic meters)and greenhouse gas emission reduction (in tonnes of CO2equivalent).
  • QuadReal may hire an external auditor or other reviewer to provide an annual review of the allocation of the net green bond proceeds.
  • Sustainalytics considers this process to be in line with market practice.
I also reviewed QuadReal's presentation and this slide definitely caught my eye:


Over 95% of QuadReal’s Canadian portfolio has been green-certified by BOMA BEST or LEED.

Moreover, these key milestones affirm QuadReal's commitment to sustainability:


As of 2018, QuadReal reduced its CO2e emissions by 38% from 2007 levels. By 2050, QuadReal aims to reduce its carbon footprint by 80% from 2007 levels.

Any way you slice it, that's very impressive.

QuadReal provides two case studies in their presentation:



You might be wondering why is QuadReal focusing so much on sustainability. The short answer is it respects BCI's commitment to responsible investing and it makes great long-term business sense.

For example, QuadReal’s redevelopment of the former Canada Post building in downtown Vancouver is taking shape, with two office towers expected to begin rising shortly above the podium:
The two 21 and 22-storey office towers will be occupied by Amazon Canada, a major vote of confidence in B.C.’s tech sector. Once Amazon’s offices at The Post are occupied, the company will be the largest corporate tenant in downtown Vancouver with a total of 1.5 million square feet of space.

The tech giant already has office space at Bentall Centre (WeWork), The Exchange Building and TELUS Garden. Amazon will also be moving into the recently completed 402 Dunsmuir office building across the street from The Post.
So, Amazon is poised to be largest corporate office tenant in downtown Vancouver and QuadReal9and others) will reap the benefits.

Amazon recently launched a $2 billion fund to advance technologies that will cut down greenhouse gases. The fund will help Amazon and other companies adhere to The Climate Pledge initiative it started in September 2019. That pledge committed the company, and others that sign onto it, to becoming carbon neutral by 2040.

In order for Amazon and other large corporations which signed that pledge to become carbon neutral by 2040, they need to make sure they are leaqsing office space at green-certified by BOMA BEST or LEED buildings.

Now you're understanding a little why QuadReal and other real estate divisions at Canada's large pensions are focusing on sustainability so much. Those that don't will be left behind, it's that simple.

The demand for green-certified buildings is only going to grow as companies look to reduce their carbon footprint, so pensions that are not doing enough to focus on sustainability will face major risks going forward.

That being said, QuadReal is taking a proactive stance and has done a great job explaining this Green Bond Framework. Kudos to Dennis Lopez and the entire team at QuadReal for launching this framework and having Sustainalytics review it and give a second opinion. That's the irght way to do it.

Below, Nada Sutic (Waterloo B.E.S. Environment and Resource Studies '03) is the Director of Sustainability for Bentall Kenedy, Canada's largest Real Estate Management firm. In this video, Nada talks about her work at Bentall Kennedy and how her degree from ERS has helped her in her career.

Bentall Kennedy used to manage BCI's massive real estate portfolio before QuadReal was formed in 2016. I like this clip because she explains well how her degree in environmental and resource studies helped her in better managing these properties with a focus on sustainability.

CPP Investments Updates its Policy on Sustainable Investing

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Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments) has published an updated Policy on Sustainable Investing, reflecting its increased conviction in the importance of considering environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks and opportunities amid an increasingly competitive corporate operating environment:
Integrating ESG factors, including climate change, into investment analysis and asset management activities supports the organization’s clear legislative objective: to maximize long-term investment returns without undue risk of loss.

“ESG considerations are inextricably linked to our ability to successfully achieve our investment objectives,” said Richard Manley, Managing Director, Head of Sustainable Investing, CPP Investments. “Our Policy reflects the growing body of evidence showing that companies that integrate consideration of ESG-related business risks and opportunities are more likely to preserve and create long-term value.”

The new Policy on Sustainable Investing specifically outlines CPP Investments’ support for companies aligning their reporting with the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB) and the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD).

As an investor to whom boards are accountable, CPP Investments asks that companies report material ESG risks and opportunities relevant to their industries and business models, with a clear preference for this disclosure to focus on performance and targets. When issuers seek input, the organization now indicates its preference for companies to align their reporting with the SASB and TCFD standards.

The Policy also reiterates the importance of asset owners like CPP Investments engaging with the companies in their portfolios, noting employees, customers, suppliers, governments and the community at large have a vested interest in forward-thinking corporate conduct and long-term business performance.

“We believe active ownership through constructive engagement can enhance and sustain returns over time and significantly reduce investment risks,” Mr. Manley said. “As a supplier of patient, engaged and productive capital, we are able to work with companies to bring about change, helping them deliver enduring value-building growth.”

About CPP Investments


Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments™) is a professional investment management organization that invests around the world in the best interests of the more than 20 million contributors and beneficiaries of the Canada Pension Plan. In order to build diversified portfolios of assets, investments in public equities, private equities, real estate, infrastructure and fixed income instruments are made by CPP Investments. Headquartered in Toronto, with offices in Hong Kong, London, Luxembourg, Mumbai, New York City, San Francisco, São Paulo and Sydney, CPP Investments is governed and managed independently of the Canada Pension Plan and at arm’s length from governments. As of March 31, 2020, the Fund totalled C$409.6 billion. For more information about CPP Investments, please visit www.cppinvestments.com or follow us on LinkedInFacebook or Twitter.
You can read about how CPP Investments tackles sustainable investing here:
At CPP Investments we consider responsible investing simply as intelligent long-term investing. Over the exceptionally long investment-horizon over which we invest, ESG factors have the potential to be significant drivers – or barriers – to profitability and shareholder value. For these reasons we refer to what many call ‘Responsible Investing’ activities simply as Sustainable Investing.

Given our legislated investment-only mandate, we consider and integrate both ESG risks and opportunities into our investment analysis, rather than eliminating investments based on ESG factors alone. As an owner, we monitor ESG factors and actively engage with companies to promote improved management of ESG, ultimately leading to enhanced long-term outcomes in the companies and assets in which 20 million CPP contributors and beneficiaries have a stake.

CPP Investments has established governing policies, approved by our Board of Directors, to guide our ESG activities. Our Policy on Sustainable Investing establishes how CPP Investments approaches ESG factors within the context of our sole mandate to maximize long-term investment returns without undue risk of loss. Our Proxy Voting Principles and Guidelines  provide guidance on how CPP Investments is likely to vote on matters put to shareholders and communicate CPP Investments’ views on governance matters.
Now, I read their Policy on Sustainable Investing but it is dated June 2020, so I'm not sure if it's the new Policy on Sustainable Investing which specifically outlines CPP Investments’ support for companies aligning their reporting with the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB) and the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD).

In any case, ESG considerations are important for CPP Investments and all of Canada's large pensions and for good reason, the world is changing, many companies are looking at climate change as an existential risk and they're trying to address it with their own long-term plan.

Yesterday, I wrote about how QuadReal Property Group, BCI's real estate subsidiary, launched its Green Bond Framework and stated this:
Amazon recently launched a $2 billion fund to advance technologies that will cut down greenhouse gases. The fund will help Amazon and other companies adhere to The Climate Pledge initiative it started in September 2019. That pledge committed the company, and others that sign onto it, to becoming carbon neutral by 2040.

In order for Amazon and other large corporations which signed that pledge to become carbon neutral by 2040, they need to make sure they are leaqsing office space at green-certified by BOMA BEST or LEED buildings.

Now you're understanding a little why QuadReal and other real estate divisions at Canada's large pensions are focusing on sustainability so much. Those that don't will be left behind, it's that simple.

The demand for green-certified buildings is only going to grow as companies look to reduce their carbon footprint, so pensions that are not doing enough to focus on sustainability will face major risks going forward.

That being said, QuadReal is taking a proactive stance and has done a great job explaining this Green Bond Framework. Kudos to Dennis Lopez and the entire team at QuadReal for launching this framework and having Sustainalytics review it and give its opinion. That's the right way to do it.
Today, OPTrust posted on LinkedIn a Wall Street Journal article written by Sanford Cockrell III and Kristen Sullivan of Deloitte & Touche on why ESG is more important than ever.

I note the following:
In January, Deloitte Global’s 2020 Readiness Report found that 90% of surveyed C-suite executives agree the impacts of climate change will negatively affect their organizations, and 59% already have sustainability initiatives in place. Many companies are rapidly ramping up sustainability efforts—listening to internal and external stakeholders, aligning with clients and partners, and integrating sustainability efforts into their business models. As businesses grapple with an unprecedented situation and work toward recovery, many are acutely aware that long-term sustainability challenges remain. Similar to prior economic disruptions, companies will be evaluated on how effectively the short-term measures they take align with critical stakeholder expectations. 
No doubt, companies are ramping up on their sustainability efforts and integrating them into their business models.

And asset owners like CPP Investments will be engaging with these companies in their portfolios, both public and private companies.

Below, you can see CPP Investments' focus areas:


Take the time to read CPP Investments' 2019 Report Sustainable Investing here.

By the way, CPP Investments got a second opinion on its Green Bond Framework which you can read here. Take the time to read this second opinion, it's very informative.

Lastly, Ontario Teachers' also published its 2019 Report Sustainable Investing which you can read here.

Below, BlackRock Chairman and CEO Larry Fink joins"Squawk Box" to discuss the asset manager's position on environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues when making investment decisions.

Is the Stock Market Party Ending?

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Fred Imbert and Weizhen Tan of CNBC report the Dow falls nearly 200 points, suffering first negative week in four as Intel slumps:
Stocks fell on Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile week of trading, with tech shares struggling and U.S.-China tensions rising.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 182.44 points, or 0.6%, to 26,469.89. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, or 20.03 points, to 3,215.63, and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.9%, or 98.24 points, to 10,363.18.

Dow-component Intel plunged more than 16% after the chipmaker offered disappointing guidance for the third quarter and delayed the release of its next-generation chips.

The 30-stock benchmark dropped 0.7% for the week, snapping a three-week winning streak. The S&P 500 dipped 0.2% this week, posting its first weekly decline in four. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, lost 1.3% this week for its first back-to-back weekly losses since May.

“We’re living in this constant state of high volatility,” said Johan Grahn, head of ETF strategy at Allianz Investment Management. “We’re surrounded by this uncertainty, not just in markets, but also around every corner of everyday life.”

“It’s really hard to see this volatility and all the uncertainty that it implies go away anytime soon,” Grahn said.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) — seen by many investors as the best “fear gauge” on Wall Street — traded at 27 on Friday.

Shares of Facebook, Alphabet, Apple and Microsoft all traded lower. Tesla dropped more than 6%. Amazon and Netflix bucked the negative trend, rising at east 0.6% each. 

Big Tech has been the market leader this year as investors grapple with the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on corporate profits. Amazon and Netflix are both up more than 49% year to date. Alphabet and Facebook are up over 13% over that time.

This week, however, this group has struggled. Facebook dropped more than 4% this week and Apple shed 3.8%. Netflix slipped 2.5% during that time period. Microsoft and Alphabet are both down at least 0.5% this week.


“Concerns of another technology bubble are rising,” said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist/SunTrust Advisory, in a note. “There is also growing concentration risk, with the top five stocks now accounting for 22% of the S&P 500 Index.”

To be sure, Lerner noted that “conditions today are largely not comparable to the mania seen during the technology bubble of the late 90s.”

“Absolute valuations are elevated but are less than half of the levels reached back then. The rising influence of a small group of stocks is a risk for the overall market, though these same companies are also contributing an increasing amount of cash flow and profits,” he said.

This week’s volatile trading action comes amid rising tensions between China and the U.S. China ordered the closure of a U.S. consulate in Chengdu, retaliating after Washington shut the Chinese consulate in Houston earlier this week. China markets plunged in response, with the Shanghai Composite dropping 3.9% overnight.

Investors also fretted this week about the state of the economy during the coronavirus pandemic.

The Labor Department said Thursday that 1.4 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits for the week ending July 18, topping a Dow Jones estimate of 1.3 million claims.

This is “no doubt sobering and a clear reminder that the pandemic is far from finished exacting its toll on our economy,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E-Trade. “While we’re hanging on to hopes of a stimulus bill, Americans are feeling the pain of stalled reopenings and renewed shutdowns across the country.”
Alright, it's Friday, time to write my weekly comment on markets.

This week was a continuation of last week, big tech shares sold off and the rest of the S&P 500 was mostly flat.

I can't say I'm surprised as I've repeatedly warned my readers Wall Street is enjoying its last liquidity orgy no thanks to the Fed expanding its balance sheet by $3 trillion in since late March and another tech wreck is headed our way as investors and traders increasingly bid up a handful of mega cap tech shares up to nosebleed valuations.

On Monday, I posted this on LinkedIn:



And I commented the S&P 500 now positive in 2020, but 320 members are still in the red. The share of the S&P 500 index held by just five stocks (22%) — a degree of concentration that is higher than during the dot-com era that preceded the early-2000s tech bust: This was before the onslaught of earnings reports from big tech companies late this week.


Why is everyone chasing a handful of tech names? Because with uncertainty still high, the herd is focusing on a handful of growth stocks to "hide" in case something goes terribly wrong.

Anyway, what did traders do this week? They mostly sold the earnings news -- good or bad -- on most of these big tech names.

Why? Because they're booking profits after monster run-ups and to be frank, multiple expansion only works so much, after a while, you need earnings to justify valuations.

Now, to be fair, so far I call this a minor pullback in tech shares. Let's first look at the daily chart on the Nasdaq ETF (QQQ):


As you can see, this latest pullback is just a small glitch as tech shares remain above their 50-day moving average.

Let's now change the setting on the chart in StockCharts (you can do this for free) to see the 5-year weekly chart on the QQQs:


Here I added the 10-week moving average to the 50-week and 200-week only to show you what happens during a liquidity orgy where everyone focuses on tech.

It's a pure momentum play and the Fed and its surrogate, the Swiss National Bank, are behind this nonsense.

Why is the Fed so scared if the Nasdaq crashes below its 200-week moving average? Think about it, tech has become the be all and end all of the economy and stock market and policymakers are scared to death about what happens if tech shares crumble. 



Of course, the problem with momentum markets is they work until they don't, meaning at one point asset managers sell to book profits and this can create an avalanche of selling, especially after a monster run-up.

Is that where we are now? I'm not sure, the Fed is still in QE mode as are all central banks, so there is no way of telling yet is this is just a small pullback or the beginning of a more meaningful selloff.

Interestingly, Martin Roberge of Canaccord Genuity shared this in his weekly market wrap-up which he aptly titled "Stealth Rotation":
For the second week in a row, technology and mega-caps stocks are down, while both the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX have stayed flat. Some of the factors causing market anxiety include: 1) US-China tensions arising with both countries ordering the closure of local consulate offices; 2) another jump in US initial claims, confirming the negative impact of rising coronavirus cases and the rolling back in re-opening activity; and 3) concerns that Democrats and Republicans will not be able to strike a well-anticipated coronavirus relief bill before the end of the month. Otherwise, as we highlighted in our mid-week note Wednesday, a key highlight this week is US corporate bond spreads falling below their 200-dma. This is a notable development if we consider that the last two times this dynamic occurred in 2012 and 2016, it coincided with a net rotation out of technology and defensives into economically sensitive stocks. As such, we reiterate our strategy of favoring globally geared groups over domestic-centric sectors, while neutralizing technology exposure at benchmark.

Our focus this week is on the similarity between the market recovery since the March 23 low and that from the March 9 low in 2009 following the GFC. The first panel on our Chart of the Week shows this resemblance. A key question though is whether investors should assume the smooth sailing projected by the 2009 roadmap going forward. After all, the S&P 500 currently trades a 22.2x one-year forward EPS, contrary to 14.4x at this time in July 2009. This is a 54% premium. However, when we adjust for the lower level of interest rates (currently 0.60% vs. 3.7% in July 2009), the fourth panel of our chart shows that the S&P 500 trades at the same equity risk premium (ERP) of about 3.8%. The bad news is that we believe one should not assume a 3% ERP as we did through the last business cycle. As we argued in our summer edition of the QS, with corporate/government debt at record highs, and fewer monetary/fiscal policy bullets left in central banks’ toolbox, one should assume greater business-cycle risk in the next economic cycle. For our part, we assume a 4% ERP, which gives us a S&P 500 fair value of 3,112 on 2021 EPS ($159) and 3,640 on 2022 EPS ($186), assuming bond yields oscillate between 0.50-1.25%. We believe it is too early to trade on 2022 earnings, hence our neutral stance on stocks.

Martin was kind enough to allow me to use this in my weekly market comment and I suggest you contact him directly (mroberge@cgf.com) is you want to be part of his distribution list.

I'm not sure if a stealth rotation is going on into economically sensitive stocks but tech shares are vulnerable and insiders are dumping shares across the stock spectrum:



I would say another big difference between now and 2009 is we are at the tail end of a long cycle, rates are at historic low levels while debt is mushrooming all over the world, so growth will remain weak over the next decade.

Take the time to read Hoisington's latest Quarterly Review and Outlook. I read their quarterly comment religiously to try to understand the big macro picture and agree with their conclusion:
Assuming a large percentage gain in economic activity in the second half of this year, the Fed, the World Bank and many economists project that there will still be a substantial gap between potential and real GDP. In economic theory, this is called a deflationary gap. At the end of the three worst recessions since the 1940s, the output gap was 4.8% in 1974, 7.9% in 1982 and 6.4% in 2009. The gap that existed after the recession of 2008-09 took nine years to close. This was the longest amount of time to eliminate a deflationary gap. Even when the gap was closing over the last decade, the inflation rate continued to trend downward, remaining near or below 2%. This indicates that there were even more unutilized/underutilized resources than was captured by the magnitude of the gap. Considering the depth of the decline in global GDP, the massive debt accumulation by all countries, the collapse in world trade and the synchronous nature of the contracting world economies the task of closing this output gap will be extremely difficult and time consuming. This situation could easily cause aggregate prices to fall, thus putting persistent downward pressure on inflation which will be reflected in declining long-dated U.S. government bond yields.
Deflation is coming, I've been warning my readers to prepare for it since September 2017 and the pandemic will only exacerbate the deflationary trend that was well in place.

What about the Fed and all the central banks expanding their balance sheet? What about the massive fiscal response in the US and Europe? They too are deflationary but you will only see it as we head the way of Japan.

In their attempt to avoid another great depression, policymakers are pushing the envelope on monetary and fiscal policy but all they are doing is exacerbating wealth inequality and that too is deflationary.

In short, all roads still lead to deflation and that means record low rates are here to stay.

And that means you need to prepare for wild volatility in public equities.

Now you get the big picture as to why pensions are moving away from bonds into private debt and away from public equities into private equity, infrastructure and real estate.

Of course, deflation is merciless, it will eviscerate public and private assets.

But don't fret, that's over the long run.

One other thing that bugs me, everyone is bearish on the US dollar but as deflation roils the global economy, you want to be long the greenback over the long run. Also, while Europeans got their act together this week, I don' trust them at all and think they are lying through their teeth about their coronavirus numbers and how bad their economies really are.

Lastly, a couple of stock charts that caught my attention this week:



Shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gained 17% today, breaking out to an all-time high as Intel misfired. It reports earnings on July 28, with analysts expecting a profit of $0.17 per share on $1.86 billion in second quarter 2020 revenue (don't touch it prior to its earnings report).

The second chart is Whirlpool (WHR) which crushed its earnings earlier this week and has come bounced back strong since March lows (don't touch it either).

The only reason I'm showing you these charts is I look at a lot of charts of companies and remind myself continuously, it's not the stock market, it's always a market of stocks.

Below, Fundstrat's Tom Lee discusses his views on the market. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Bonawyn Eisen, Brian Kelly and Karen Finerman.

Second, Social Capital CEO Chamath Palihapitiya told CNBC on Thursday that Tesla's growth is no longer about its electric cars, but its renewable energy components. That could make Elon Musk's company worth trillions, he added.

Third, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, says the US economic recovery is "slowing down, leveling off," due to the public engagement concerns of consumers over the ongoing pandemic. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Jonathan Ferro on "Bloomberg The Open." El-Erian's opinions are his own.

Lastly, Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, the World Health Organization’s lead expert on COVID-19, talked with “GMA” this morning about the growing number of cases in the US and elsewhere. Take the time to listen to her, she's incredible and should be the head of the W.H.O.



CDPQ Appoints a New Head of Liquid Markets

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Last week, CDPQ appointed Vincent Delisle as the new Head of Liquid Markets:
Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ) today announced the appointment of Vincent Delisle as Head of Liquid Markets, concluding an international recruiting process led by a recognized firm that began last April.

Mr. Delisle has 25 years of experience in asset allocation strategy, global equity markets and portfolio management. He began his career trading stocks and bonds in the 1990s at investment firm Eterna Trust before spending seven years as a Portfolio Strategist at Desjardins Securities from 1997 to 2004.

He then spent fourteen years at Scotia Bank, where he served as Director of Equity Research, Québec and Managing Director, Portfolio and Quantitative Strategy in the Capital Markets division. In these roles, Mr. Delisle was the bank’s chief strategist, and his investment recommendations were followed by thousands of brokers who advised individuals and by Scotia Bank’s institutional clients around the world. For each of the six years from 2013 to 2018, in recognition by his peers for the quality of his work, he was ranked #1 Analyst in Portfolio Strategy in the prestigious Greenwich Associates rankings and for three years in the Brendan Woods International rankings. Before joining CDPQ, Mr. Delisle was Co-Chief Investment Officer at Hexavest. He holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Finance from Université Laval and is a CFA Charterholder.

In his new role as Head of Liquid Markets at CDPQ, Mr. Delisle will be responsible for leading the Equity Markets and Fixed Income teams, and co-leading with Head of Real Assets and Private Equity, Macky Tall, the Investment Funds and External Management team, as well as the Global Research team. He will report to the President and Chief Executive Officer and will sit on the Executive Committee and Investment-Risk Committee.
“Vincent Delisle has a global view of international equity markets and of the economy, proven experience in portfolio construction and a solid investment track record. He is skilled at identifying deep market trends, implementing value-creating strategies and then transforming them into rigorous and efficient decision-making processes,” said Charles Emond, President and Chief Executive Officer of CDPQ. “With his unique combination of experience and abilities, he is an extremely accomplished leader who can position our liquid market portfolios for the next decade to the benefit of our depositors,” he added.

"I’m very proud to join CDPQ, a world-class organization that plays a leading role in Québec’s economic development and that is recognized and respected in the markets for its knowledge and know-how. I’m looking forward to working with the teams to lead CDPQ’s liquid portfolios and continuing to build on the organization’s research capacity and investment fund strategy,” said Vincent Delisle.
Mr. Delisle starts his new position on August 3, 2020.
So, Vincent Delisle takes over as the Head of Liquid Markets at CDPQ.

Basically, everything related to Public Markets -- stocks and bonds -- falls under his responsibility.

Also, the press release clearly states that Mr. Delisle will be co-leading with Head of Real Assets and Private Equity, Macky Tall, the Investment Funds and External Management team, as well as the Global Research team. He will report to the President and Chief Executive Officer and will sit on the Executive Committee and Investment-Risk Committee.

Recall, back in April, Helen Beckwas appointed Executive Vice-President and Head of Equity Markets. Ms. Beck also joined the Executive Committee and now reports to the new Head of Liquid Markets.

Marc Cormier, EVP and Head of Fixed Income will also report to Vincent Delisle. As far as Maxime Aucoin, EVP and Head of Total Portfolio, it sounds like he will continue to report to Charles Emond, although I'm not sure who he reports to now so don't quote me.

What do I think of Vincent Delisle? Only met the man once when I was working at PSP and he was a strategist at Scotia Bank. Nice guy, polished, presented great charts, marries macro analysis with sector calls, has an international view.

I don't question his research and presentation skills but he did have a tough time at Hexavest where La Presse reported he stayed for less than two years and left the firm last April after a difficult first quarter that ended with a 30% drop in assets under management.

Delisle was named Co-CIO of Hexavest back in May 2018 when he joined the leadership of the Strategy team working alongside Vital Proulx, the founder and Co-CIO, and Jean-Pierre Couture, the Chief Economist.

But these markets haven't been good to Hexavest and other fundamental shops (look at Bridegewater's woes) and I have heard from a few frustrated clients that they're not happy with Hexavest's performance over the last five years.

Now, to be fair, I don't know exactly what is going on at Hexavest, I think Vital Proulx is an incredible money manager but he has been trying to pass the baton to others without much success and it isn't fair to point fingers at him or anyone else, including Vincent Delisle.

These markets are great for a select few elite hedge funds and quant funds that front-run the Fed and the rest of the funds are getting killed.

When performance is concentrated in a handful of mega cap tech names, it's impossible to beat the index, and some shops are getting massacred.

Of course, when it all blows up, the bearish money managers focused on protecting downside risk will come roaring back but by then, it will be too late, they will have suffered from a severe drain in funds.

Anyway, Vincent Delisle has his work cut out for him, this isn't an easy job and he has to make sure he has everything running well, that collaboration between teams is maintained to maximize knowledge transfer and performance.

No doubt, he will be working closely with Alexandre Synnett, the new EVP and CTO in charge of leveraging technology across CDPQ.

I also have no doubt he was named Head of Liquid Markets because he worked closely with Charles Emond, CDPQ's President and CEO, at Scotia Bank where Emond worked for nearly 20 years as Executive Vice-President, Financial Affairs, Head of Canadian Corporate Banking and Global Head, Investment Banking and Capital Markets.

In short, Emond needed to place someone as Head of Liquid Markets which he knows well, he can trust and who he thinks has the knowledge and experience to add value across stocks, bonds and external fund management.

It also sounds to me like he's grooming Delisle to be the next CIO of CDPQ, following the departure of Roland Lescure a few years ago.

Who else could have been the Head of Liquid Markets at CDPQ? I can give you a short list of names which include Francois Trahan who recently left UBS where he was a managing Director and strategist (waiting to hear from him on his next move), to others like Clement Gignac (SVP and Chief Economist at iA Financial Group and one of my former bosses), Martin Roberge (Cannacord) and Simon Lamy, the best fixed income portfolio manager at CDPQ for over 20 years before politics got the best of him (CDPQ should beg him to come back but he's not interested unless he can make some important HR changes).

That's pretty much it, there aren't a ton of qualified candidates and again, holding a CFA doesn't make you uniquely qualified for this job, you really need a great understanding of public and private markets at a minimum and make sure everything is running like a tight ship.

So, I wish Vincent Delisle the best of luck in this new role and if he wants help, he knows where to reach me but I don't come cheap and have zero tolerance for petty CDPQ politics.

In other CDPQ related news, Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Long-Term and Short-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) at 'AAA' and 'F1+', respectively, which is very good news.

And Ivanhoé Cambridge, CDPQ's massive real estate subsidiary, recently hired New York based Raider Hill Advisors to help it with its troubled Retail portfolio (La Presse discussed this here and I wish them a lot of luck restructuring these assets).

Below, an RDI Economie interview (in French) with Vincent Delisle done last year when he was still Co-CIO at Hexavest. Like I said, he's a very sharp and nice guy who understands markets and is able to explain them which comes in handy when he will be called to do more interviews like this representing CDPQ.

And Nobel laureate Paul Krugman says there is “mania” in the stock market as equities continue to rise. The New York Times columnist explains how job gains in May and June were a “blip,” adding policymakers tried to reopen the economy too soon. Krugman says he does not support additional stimulus checks or a universal basic income and claims the national debt is not near “a crisis point.”


Pensions' Love-Hate Relationship With Private Debt?

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Fola Akinnibi and Kelsey Butler of Bloomberg News report on why pension managers love or hate private credit:
With some $4 trillion to invest—and returns depressed by ultralow interest rates—U.S. public pension funds have been dipping their toes into private credit. The relatively new asset class had grown quickly, attracting almost $1 trillion, before it was hit by March’s pandemic-driven collapse.

So how do pension fund managers feel about this burgeoning asset class now? Bloomberg Markets talked to officials at nine pension systems of different sizes and in different parts of the country to get their views on how these investments are working out. We heard a wide range of reactions, presented here from the smallest fund to the largest:

San Diego County Employees Retirement Association

Stephen Sexauer, chief investment officer 
Size: $11.9 billion Serves: More than 44,000 members 
Private credit allocation: Less than 0.5% 
Performance in the lockdown: Too soon to judge 
Target allocation: Unchanged

LOOKING BACK: “Why would pension plans get in the banking business and start making loans to corporations?” asks Sexauer, who inherited the private credit allocation from his predecessor. He says the first quarter market sell-off showed him there were more opportunities in the traditional fixed-income markets that don’t involve signing a multiyear contract with a private investment firm and paying the fees that come with such an arrangement.

LOOKING AHEAD: “Our allocation is under a half a percent. We don’t see a lot out there that would change that. Our takeaway right now is it’s a bull market strategy that’s a medieval marriage to generate fees for the private debt managers.” There are likely fewer than a dozen pensions in the U.S. and Canada with the in-house expertise to do the sort of credit work necessary to analyze these deals, Sexauer says. “It doesn’t sound like a scalable business to me. You’re not going to know what the results are for a long time. We’ll see how the returns are in six or seven years.”

School Employees Retirement System of Ohio (SERS)

Farouki Majeed, chief investment officer
Size: $14.5 billion
Serves: More than 200,000 non teacher school employees
Private credit allocation: 1.3%
Performance in the lockdown: Performed well
Target allocation: 5%

LOOKING BACK: “We have for the most part avoided the sectors most impacted, including hospitality, retail, and energy. Our managers were able to opportunistically deploy capital during the depths of the crisis in March and early April.”

LOOKING AHEAD:“The Covid pandemic has heightened the risks in this space but also presented new opportunities. Since we will be increasing our exposure post-Covid, we feel good about the entry point for new commitments. SERS has committed several hundred million dollars to new funds that are expected to take advantage of the prolonged recovery. We are expecting that new commitments in this period will generate higher returns.”

OTHER STRATEGIES: “Currently we have a small exposure to asset-based leasing/lending strategies in the opportunistic portfolio. We have no plans to increase that exposure at this time.”

Connecticut Retirement Plans & Funds

Shawn Wooden, state treasurer
Size: $36 billion
Serves: 212,000 state and municipal employees
Private credit allocation: 0.4%
Performance in the lockdown: As expected
Target allocation: 5%

LOOKING BACK:Our view is that private credit is an attractive asset class for us. An important point was trying to expand our access to a wider credit opportunity set that would be more complementary to the more liquid fixed-income strategies. That was our view prior to this; that remains our view today. In February we created the 5% bucket [for private credit], and the crisis hit. The crisis is obviously bad and terrible, but with respect to our greater focus on private credit [the timing] was in many respects perfect. Those private credit opportunities did perform as expected, and we’re pleased with the performance.”

LOOKING AHEAD:“We’ve found that there’s tremendous opportunity.”

OTHER STRATEGIES: Some of these more niche strategies, such as pharmaceutical royalty, are attractive due to the lower correlation of the exposure and return factors vs. other asset classes. In addition, some of these strategies provide the opportunity to generate attractive absolute and relative returns due to the more niche market opportunity and expertise required by the best investment managers pursuing these strategies. While we do not expect these will be a core component of the allocation, we do have the flexibility to invest in these strategies.”

Arizona State Retirement System

Al Alaimo, senior fixed-income portfolio manager
Size: $41 billion
Serves: More than 500,000 current and retired employees
Private credit allocation: About 15%
Performance in the lockdown: Down less than 1%

LOOKING BACK: “We’re very pleased with how it performed. It helped that our portfolio was well-diversified—with multiple strategies targeting different markets in the U.S. and Europe.We also had very little exposure to energy and retail, two industries particularly hard hit in the economic downturn.”

LOOKING AHEAD:“Since Covid-19, all of the credit markets—both public and private—have repriced, so everything has gotten more attractive, and every new dollar a manager can put to work has higher expected returns today than at the end of last year.”

OTHER STRATEGIES:“In 2019, we really built out our credit asset class and added a number of new managers. Several were in what we call ‘other credit,’ which are private strategies. They include litigation finance, life settlements, risk-sharing transactions, and leasing. Those are niche strategies, but they tend to be very attractive. They also tend to be relatively limited in terms of being able to deploy capital.”

Los Angeles County Retirement Association

Jon Grabel, chief investment officer
Size: $56.8 billion
Serves: More than 165,000 members
Private credit allocation: 2%
Performance in the lockdown: 1.8% net for illiquid credit in the quarter ended in March
Target allocation: Up to 5%

LOOKING BACK: “Some may view illiquid credit or private credit as very distressed-oriented—that, in effect, you use debt securities to get equitylike returns. That is not our strategy. We are not looking for this to be a private equity replacement.

“We made some recent commitments over the last several months. Those commitments have been more single-investment, separate-account-type structures as opposed to drawdown vehicles.”

LOOKING AHEAD:“We are under target. We will continue to evaluate opportunities, but we’re sensitive to markets. The stimulus and intervention from the Fed has impacted credit dramatically.”

Pennsylvania Public School Employees Retirement System

Steve Esack, press secretary
Size: $55.8 billion
Serves: 256,000 active and 234,000 retired school employees
Private credit allocation: 8.5%
Performance in the lockdown: Down 11.3% in first quarter
Target allocation: 10%

LOOKING BACK: “While the portfolio outperformed its benchmark on a relative basis, absolute performance was worse than expected, driven by a couple of outliers. For example, energy investments within the real assets credit allocation were heavily impacted by negative supply-demand dynamics given the uncertainty of OPEC+ production cuts and the collapse of demand due to the global pandemic.”

LOOKING AHEAD:“While there are benefits and drawbacks of private credit vs. other asset classes, we continue to believe the benefits prevail. Compared to public high yield for example, private credit should benefit from its seniority in the capital structure, yield pickup from illiquidity premium, less price volatility, technical-driven selling, and covenant protection. We view private credit as a long-term asset class that shouldn’t be evaluated quarter over quarter.

OTHER STRATEGIES:“Our current private credit [investment policy statement] provides ample flexibility to consider numerous private credit substrategies. [These include] direct lending, mezzanine, distressed [and] special situations, specialty finance, structured credit, real assets credit, and real estate credit.”

State of Wisconsin Investment Board

Chris Prestigiacomo, portfolio manager
Size: $101.5 billion
Serves: 642,000 participants
Performance in the lockdown: As expected

LOOKING BACK:“There was some volatility in mid-March when things started to unravel a little bit, but that started to come back in early Q2. It was really the Fed’s actions that allowed the credit markets and equity markets to snap back very, very quickly.”

LOOKING AHEAD:“There are a lot of plans out there that, when they see a big downdraft, have to sell at unfortunate times. We don’t have to do that. We can play a volatile cycle. I would say today we’re still very interested in private credit. The spreads haven’t returned to pre-Covid levels, which is good. I think there’s some consensus within our shop that the back half of this year, there will be some more volatility, which we think will bring some good opportunities for us.”

OTHER STRATEGIES: “Within our privates group, excluding hedge funds, we’re predominantly lending to operating businesses across various industries. If you look in our hedge fund book as well as our multiasset book, they participate more in some of the newer strategies: asset-backed, royalty lending, distressed credits—those areas. So we are looking at those kind of ‘niche-y’ areas. As the risks subside and strategies become more developed, that’s when you would see other participants come in and bid up pricing and lower returns. And that’s probably a time where we would be a seller, if we had the ability to exit.”

North Carolina Total Retirement Plans

Dale Folwell, state treasurer
Size: $103.9 billion for the defined benefit plan
Serves: More than 332,000 payees
Allocation: 7% for opportunistic fixed income

LOOKING BACK:We were finding [credit] more appealing until a big competitor showed up: the Federal Reserve. I’m not criticizing the Fed’s actions, I’m just saying that when they come in and make these multitrillion announcements, obviously spreads narrowed tremendously. It takes time to analyze these deals and in some instances, there wasn’t enough time to analyze them before spreads started tightening.”

LOOKING AHEAD:“I don’t think we have fully witnessed some of the timeless impacts that this virus is going to have on the credit markets.”

State Board of Administration of Florida

Trent Webster, senior investment officer in charge of alternative investments
Size: $160.7 billion in defined benefit retirement assets
Serves: Almost 648,000 active members
Private credit allocation: 2% to 2.25%
Performance in the lockdown: As expected
Target allocation: Likely to grow

LOOKING BACK:“For a couple of years we had gotten quite cautious on credit. We thought spreads had gotten too tight for the most part. We thought the lack of covenants was very unappealing. A lot of money had flowed into the market searching for yield. In March and April, we saw spreads blow out, and we put money to work pretty aggressively where we could.”

LOOKING AHEAD:“The amounts that we have been looking to commit over the first and second quarter of this year are greater than we have committed in the past. We’re watching to see if this rally is justified based on the future economic fundamentals. We do think that in certain parts of the economy there will be very interesting opportunities on the stressed and distressed side, regardless of what the market does.”
Very interesting article. By now, private debt is a hot asset class at all pensions.

Why? As I write this, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note is 58 basis points (0.58%) and investors looking for alternative yield are looking at private debt as a way to generate more returns in their credit portfolio.

Private debt flourished as an asset class after the 2008 great financial crisis:
The post-crisis era has seen private debt become an established asset class in its own right, matching the needs of yield-seeking institutional investors and companies looking for capital to grow. We look at some of the drivers for this growth and assess how firms can build on further opportunities in the market. 
This TIAA paper explains the attractiveness of private debt to institutional investors:
  • Private debt has emerged as an asset class addressing institutional investors’ search for yield and lower volatility amid record-low interest rates and market uncertainty.
  • Structural changes in fixed-income markets—decreased liquidity and rising asset correlations—are increasing investors’ willingness to trade liquidity for yield.
  • Banks pulling back from the middle market have created opportunity for non-bank asset managers to issue direct loans to below-investment-grade companies at higher interest rates.
  • Among private debt categories, middle market senior loans and mezzanine debt historically have offered particularly attractive risk-adjusted returns as potential substitutes for traditional assets, including high-yield bonds and equity.
  • The private debt market’s complexity requires due diligence in selecting experienced asset managers with a record of success in creating diversified private loan portfolios.
Now, in Canada, some pension funds are very active in private debt.

CPPIB, for example, has roughly C$40 billion in credit investments, with around 80% of that speculative grade. This includes corporate, real estate and structured deals.

John Graham is in charge of CPPIB's giant credit portfolio and he stated this to Bloomberg last year:
CPPIB remains bullish on the U.S. middle-market, where it invests through Antares Capital, which has about $24 billion in assets. Antares is prepared to swoop in to buy assets from cash-strapped lenders when the cycle turns, its chief executive officer said in July.

“We really do try to get deep diligence on every single deal,” Graham said. He added that CPPIB sees good opportunities to invest in companies that will survive a downturn in the credit cycle. 
No doubt the COVID crisis presented great opportunities to CPPIB and others but the problem which was stated in the article at the top is the Fed and US government came in to quickly calm markets and spreads tightened again very quickly.

You can see this by looking at the iShares high yield bond ETF (HYG):


High yield bond prices rallied (spreads tightened) beginning at the end of March which spurred the big rally in US and global stock markets.

The snapback happened so fast that investors weren't able to take advantage of opportunities in private debt markets.

Note what Stephen Sexauer, chief investment officer at San Diego County Employees Retirement Association stated at the top of the article above:
LOOKING BACK: “Why would pension plans get in the banking business and start making loans to corporations?” asks Sexauer, who inherited the private credit allocation from his predecessor. He says the first quarter market sell-off showed him there were more opportunities in the traditional fixed-income markets that don’t involve signing a multiyear contract with a private investment firm and paying the fees that come with such an arrangement.

LOOKING AHEAD: “Our allocation is under a half a percent. We don’t see a lot out there that would change that. Our takeaway right now is it’s a bull market strategy that’s a medieval marriage to generate fees for the private debt managers.” There are likely fewer than a dozen pensions in the U.S. and Canada with the in-house expertise to do the sort of credit work necessary to analyze these deals, Sexauer says. “It doesn’t sound like a scalable business to me. You’re not going to know what the results are for a long time. We’ll see how the returns are in six or seven years.”
Sexauer is right, there's a lot of hype in private debt and unless you're a sophisticated Canadian pension with in-house expertise, good luck analyzing these deals.

And even sophisticated Canadian pensions invest with top private equity funds to take advantage of credit opportunities. IMCO took a big stake in Apollo's new fund to take advantage of dislocations in the market.

Like I keep warning my readers, we are living the Alice in Wonderland phase of the COVID crisis in markets but when the stimulus stops, there will be economic hardship and the insolvency phase of the crisis will roil credit markets and stock markets.

And that's when all these credit funds will swoop in to buy debt at deep discounts.

By the way, why do you think Goldman Sachs had stellar second quarter earnings results?

It basically lent money to cash strapped companies at huge spreads and made a killing in fixed income and equities trading.

You also understand why it became a bank holding company back in 2008, it wanted to enjoy the Fed's balance sheet so it can borrow at nothing and lend out at a nice spread.

It's not just Goldman, all the big banks are all about spread, getting money for nothing and risk for free.

But banks don't lend out in the middle market past three year terms so that's where pensions and their private equity partners invest to make their spread.

Lastly, go back to see my notes on private debt from the CAIP Quebec & Atlantic conference last September:
There are enormous opportunities to be found in private debt and alternative credit growth. In 2018, assets under management globally by private debt funds reached $638 billion, with aggregate capital raised surpassing the $110 billion mark. Hear about the latest developments in asset-back debt, direct lending, and alternative credit. Access the full spectrum of credit instruments to deliver absolute performance while limiting your duration risk and interest rate sensitivity.

Moderator: Vishnu Mohanan, Manager, Private Investments - Halifax Regional Municipality Pension Plan

Speakers:
Theresa Shutt, Chief Investment Officer - Fiera Private Debt
Ian Fowler, Co-Head North America Global Private Finance & President, Barings BDC - Barings
Larry Zimmerman, Managing Director, Corporate Credit, Benefit Street Partners

Synopsis: This morning, we all listened to an interesting panel on private debt, one of the hottest asset classes right now. I came a tad late when they were going over the pros and cons of sponsored versus non-sponsored deals.

In non-sponsored deals, you rely on third party data on quality of earnings and other data.

Theresa Shutt said they focus on corporate credit and companies with audited statements. "If there is trouble, we want to see how management behaves in a downturn, we have good covenants."

She said to ask private debt managers a simple question: "Tell me about your bad months." She added: "Our recovery has been quite high".

I like that, asked Theresa to write a guest comment for my blog on this hot asset class.

Ian Fowler focused a lot of alignment of interests and said to look at two things:

  1. Target return
  2.  Fee structure
He warned "investors are overpaying for beta" and said you can expect 6-8% unlevered return but as the market gets hot, spreads are being compressed, managers are making higher risk loans to meet targeted return, and skimming is occurring where they are using investors' money to generate income on their platform."

Larry Zimmerman also warned investors to beware of private debt managers "building syndication deals".

Theresa Shutt warned not to just talk to principals, "ask about compensation, focus on culture". She said they use ESG in all their underwriting criteria.

I asked the panel how to prepare for another 2008 crisis and they told me to "focus on first not second lien loans" and remain highly diversified, avoiding deep cyclical sectors.

Interestingly, in the US, non bank private debt funds have been very active in the middle market and act to stabilize the market in case of a downturn.

Ian Fowler told us to look at average debt spread, style drift, and leverage.

I need to cover private debt in a lot more detail but Ian told me after that average PE multiples are priced at 12x so there is no room for error. "It's the same thing in private debt, you need to see how deals are being priced and beware of alignment of interests as spreads get compressed and managers try to fulfill their target return".
Private debt is an important and established asset class which is here to stay.

Pensions are increasingly investing in it directly or through partners.

There are a lot of opportunities which will present themselves as we move into the insolvency phase but be careful, there's a lot of hype and risks in private debt which investors should be made aware of.

Institutional investors with big budgets should take the time to read Prequin's 2020 Global Private Debt Report (sample pages are available here).

It's definitely worth keeping your eye on these private debt megatrends:


Below, Real Vision Managing Editor Ed Harrison talks to Richard Koo, Chief Economist at Nomura Research Institute. Koo is famous for his work on balance sheet recessions, a rare type of recession where drastic liquidity injections fail to increase the money supply because they remain trapped in the financial system, as there's no low demand for loans since companies focus on minimizing debt rather than maximizing profits. He and Harrison discuss this framework in detail, and use it to analyze our current economic crisis the world faces.


OMERS CPO on the Importance of Leadership

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In the first installment of their "Leadership Under Fire" series, Satish Rai, Chief Investment Officer, and Annesley Wallace, Chief Pension Officer, chat about the impact of COVID-19 and the importance of leadership during unprecedented times. Mr. Rai writes this on LinkedIn:
Recently, I had the pleasure of sitting down with leaders from OMERS and our portfolio companies to discuss the impact of COVID-19. Amid a global pandemic, a slowing economy and what can often feel like an uncertain future, we discussed lessons learned and the importance of true leadership when it matters most.

While each leader had unique experiences and insights to share, there were a number of recurring themes, including the importance of having crisis and emergency plans ready, the significance of building stable and trusting relationships with employees and partners and the positive impact of frequent communication and transparency.

Here’s what Annesley Wallace, Chief Pension Officer at OMERS had to say.

What are some of the most important leadership principles that you relied on through the COVID-19 crisis?

The COVID-19 crisis emphasized that a big part of success in leading through a crisis is building a team’s strength and resilience before the crisis even begins.A team that has the ability to adapt to change, and also has an inclusive culture stands a much better chance of surviving and thriving in any storm. Through the crisis there were three leadership principles that stood out: decisiveness, transparency and thinking big.

Let’s talk about decisiveness in decision-making. This isn’t as simple as it seems, is it?

No, it is not. In the very early days as we were responding to the crisis we needed to make some difficult and quick decisions. In retrospect those decisions seem straightforward, but in the moment there were many pros and cons to weigh, and despite having imperfect information about future implications, we needed to make a call, and quickly. The impact of not making a decision would have been far worse than making it. With a decision, the team was able to adapt and continue to deliver.

The ability to make critical decisions in real-time requires tremendous trust at the leadership level doesn’t it?

Absolutely. Trust is critical across the team, and to best respond in a crisis it is also necessary to have transparency. Trust is important so that the right people feel comfortable making the decisions they are best positioned to make, knowing they will not be second guessed. Transparency is important because better decisions will be made if those making the decisions and planning for various future outcomes have as much information as is available. In times of crisis being transparent can also help ease anxiety. We all feel more anxious when we do not know what is going on, and so communicating regularly and getting information into people’s hands becomes critically important.

You mentioned thinking big. Can you elaborate?

Through the crisis this was important in two ways – both thinking big in the short-term, and also being mindful not to lose sight of the opportunities that present themselves as a result of the crisis. On the former, we decided to transition the team to work from home not knowing if it was even possible and recognizing that only a year earlier we had ended a work from home program. It was an uncomfortable decision, but we tried it and not only has it been overwhelmingly successful, it is creating new opportunities for ways of working that will carry well into the future for the benefit of our members and our people. We also continued to think big about the future and were able to identify opportunities to evolve the products and services we provide. Without the crisis we would not have made these changes.

Following the interview with Annesley, it is clear that her team’s ability to adapt was critical in managing through an evolving crisis, and through trust and transparency the team was able to identify ways to thrive rather than merely survive. I also believe that an important tool in managing a crisis is having a strong business continuity plan. You cannot predict a crisis, and when one hits, the details of the plan quickly become outdated, but the planning process trains you to think creatively and quickly, which is so important in a crisis.

I look forward to sharing highlights from Mike Graham, Global Head of OMERS Private Equity, on the theme of compassion and humility in leadership. Stay healthy!
Good interview with Annesley Wallace, Chief Pension Officer at OMERS.

It was at the beginning of the year that OMERS named her as its new chief pension officer:
Wallace has been with the OMERS pension services team for about two years, before which she was a managing director at OMERS Infrastructure. She also currently sits on the boards of Infrastructure Ontario, Bruce Power and Alectra Utilities.

“I am grateful for the opportunity to lead the OMERS pensions business, as we continue to deliver exceptional services to our 500,000 members across Ontario,” said Wallace, in a press release. “Today, we have an opportunity to further the member experience by leveraging the expertise and innovative mindsets of our teams.

“Ultimately our goal is to ensure that the value of an OMERS membership is felt on day one and grows with each member every step of the way into retirement. I am excited to be part of this journey with OMERS.”
Little did Ms. Wallace know at the time that a global pandemic was unfolding and it would hit OMERS and other pensions in more ways than one.

From the above, she sounds all the right notes but this part stuck with me: "A team that has the ability to adapt to change, and also has an inclusive culture stands a much better chance of surviving and thriving in any storm."

She's absolutely right. A crisis can hit anyone. It might be a personal medical diagnosis which turns your world upside down, or something else.

When a crisis hits you, you rely on your family and close friends. Similarly, when a crisis strikes your workplace and impacts everyone, it's up to everyone to band together and step up to the plate to do their part.

The COVID-19 crisis isn't any different. Yes, it forced people to work from home but in the end, once the novelty of that wears off (and it has worn off), you still need to deliver and make sure you're doing your part to help your team.

Look, I'm on record stating working from home is here to stay, some will love it, others will hate it, but it doesn't really matter.

Right now what matters for OMERS and other large Canadian pensions navigating this health crisis is first and foremost to ensure the health and safety of all their employees, including the ones at their portfolio companies, and to continue delivering great results in spite of the crisis.

Are there obstacles? You bet. Real estate divisions dealing with underperforming retail assets are on the phone with lawyers all day. Doing due diligence on new managers in public and private markets is almost impossible because you can't do an onsite visit. Building culture is tougher when everyone is scattered all over the place and try doing a Zoom meeting with kids screaming in the background.

But that's all part of the new normal, no use whining about it, accept it and move on, focus on what you can do, not what you can't change.

And what about the anxiety of working from home? My advice is to suck it up, it's better than the anxiety of being unemployed and desperately looking for work to cover your basic living expenses.

Having said this, Ms. Wallace is absolutely right about this too: "Transparency is important because better decisions will be made if those making the decisions and planning for various future outcomes have as much information as is available. In times of crisis being transparent can also help ease anxiety."

At the beginning of the month, I wrote a comment on the importance of pension communication where I stated the following:
Communication is important not just with the media and stakeholders but with all your employees. If you don't take the time to properly communicate with them, and listen to them, you risk alienating them.
And that's even more true when employees are working from home and have ample time to search for new job opportunities elsewhere.

That's why it's critically important to engage with them, not just at the CEO level but at all levels.

If I was the CEO of a major pension fund, I'd be talking with all my senior managers and asking them the following:
  • How often do you speak with your team members, not just the senior ones but all of them?
  • Are you transparent about the situation and strategic priorities?
  • Are you also taking the time to call people one on one to see how they are doing and whether they need anything?
And on that last point, if you're going to be robotic and disingenuous about it, don't bother calling them, the last thing employees want is some manager calling them to ask a checklist of questions pretending they care about their well-being when they really couldn't care less. That only causes more anxiety.

I'm telling you, I can write a book on building the right culture at pensions, mostly because I've seen plenty of examples of how not to do it, but I've also seen examples of how to do it properly.

Anyway, I applaud OMERS for starting this "Leadership Under Fire" series and look forward to the next installment featuring Mike Graham, Global Head of OMERS Private Equity, on the theme of compassion and humility in leadership.

I just wish these interviews were taped webcasts and posted on OMERS YouTube channel which basically has no up-to-date clips I can embed here.

Guys and gals, we are 2020, social media is critically important as are visual clips. If you want to be transparent to your stakeholders and engage your employees, it takes a little more effort but start using all the available social media platforms, especially YouTube. Trust me on this.

Below, Good Morning America had an interesting report yesterday on the challenges of working from home. Take the time to watch this, I agree with Sara Sutton, CEO and founder of FlexJobs.

And JetBlue is the first major US airline to test UV cleaning inside the cabin as airlines try to increase safety standards amid the coronavirus pandemic. Cool stuff, still doesn't put me at ease to get on a plane but I hope these new UV cleaning devices become standard from now on (on top of regular cleaning and I would still bring Lysol wipes on any plane ride and wear a mask at all times).

Can States Afford Rising Public Pension Debts?

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Andrew Biggs, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and contributor to Forbes, wrote a comment examining whether states can afford rising public pension debts:
Most observers are aware of the rising cost of state and local government employee retirement plans, driven by benefit increases, overoptimistic investment return assumptions and failures by governments to make full contributions as required. But in a recent study, the National Conferences of Public Employee Retirement Systems (NCPERS) cites federal government data to argue that public sector pensions remain easily financially sustainable by state and local governments.

In fact, though, those same federal data show that public pension debt is rising significantly faster than the growth rate of the economy, with pension liabilities doubling as a percentage of GDP over the past three decades. Worse, state and local government pensions are failing even to fully fund the new benefits earned by employees each year, much less rebuilding their troubled finances. All of this points to difficult decisions ahead, not to a future in which, as the NCPERS study concludes, “the data clearly demonstrate that public-sectors employers’ economic capacity to handle that debt is also increasing.”

The NCPERS study rightly states that “policy makers need to examine the trends in the ratio between pension debt and GDP to get a realistic picture about sustainability of public pensions.” What is more questionable is NCPERS’ conclusion: “Our analysis … shows that this ratio has been stable and is likely to be stable over the next 30 years with minimal adjustments.”

Indeed, the same data NCPERS relies on appear to show a very different story — that public pension liabilities, funded or unfunded, have increased dramatically over the years.

NCPERS uses data from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States publication. The Fed’s pension data in turn are drawn from the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which prepare these data as part of the National Income and Product Accounts.

The Fed/BEA pension data show that immediately following World War Two, total state and local government liabilities were equal to only seven percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Pension liabilities grew to around twenty percent of GDP by 1970, remaining at more or less that level through the late 1980s. But beginning in 1989 pension debt began a long and dramatically higher upward path, with total pension liabilities reaching 41% of GDP in 2019.



The unfunded share of state and local pension liabilities has increased as well. Up through the 1970s many public sector pensions were funded on a pay-as-you-go basis, meaning that benefits were paid directly via tax revenues with no attempt at prefunding. In 1947, for instance, unfunded state and local pension liabilities equaled 5.8% of GDP at a time when total pension liabilities were just 7.1%. Over time, state and local governments moved to prefund their pension benefits, such that pension assets grew considerably. By itself, that’s a good move.

But all of this pension prefunding – and then some – was offset by increases in the cost of public pension benefits. In fact, unfunded public pension liabilities today are higher than in the years when state and local governments made little effort to fund pensions at all. For instance, even in public pensions’ best-funded year of 1999, total unfunded liabilities were nearly as large as in 1947, when pension funding was almost nonexistent. This merely illustrates the degree to which state and local government pension systems have grown.

So, given all that, how does the NCPERS study conclude that public pension liabilities are both modest and sustainable? It’s a little hard to follow their calculations, and a number of mathematical steps NCPERS takes don’t affect the trends very much.

But one does: NCPERS’ standard for sustainability is “how much more money should have been contributed into pension funds to keep the ratio stable,” which NCPERS defines as “at or below the average during the 16-year period (2002–2017).”

So what NCPERS does is take a subset of the much longer period over which pension liabilities have skyrocketed and then, by looking at the average increase in pension debt over that subset, effectively cut even that amount in half. The soft bigotry of low expectations.

Specifically, from 2002 to 2017 unfunded pension liabilities rose from 13.2% of GDP to 20.6%, an increase of 7.4% of GDP. The average increase during that period would be roughly half that amount, or 3.7% of GDP. But that’s a pretty modest goal when, over the past 30 years, unfunded state and local pension liabilities increased by 10.6% of GDP, nearly three times as much. In effect, NCPERS asks how much it would costs to stabilize pension debt as of the beginning of Barack Obama’s second term, when pension debt began its long upward climb back when George Bush – the first one – entered office.

And it’s hard to portray that increase as benign, even if no state pension plan has yet gone insolvent. For instance, on paper, education funding per student has increased significantly over the years. But a substantial part of that increased funding doesn’t come anywhere near the classroom but instead goes to pay off unfunded liabilities for teacher pension plans. We see the same effects elsewhere as rising pension costs squeeze resources available for other purposes.

But there’s worse: the Federal Reserve/Bureau of Economic Analysis data show that state and local pensions aren’t even treading water, much less making up for lost ground. In fact, state and local pensions aren’t even receiving sufficient contributions to cover the new benefits accruing to employees each year. Simply to stay even, total pension contributions would need to roughly double or the rate at which future benefits are earned would need to be cut in half. That’s not a modest difference.



So what might a sustainable pension funding policy look like? And would it be affordable? I’ll make two assumptions: first, that current generations of taxpayers won’t shift costs to future generations, but that current generations also won’t pay off current pension debts in order to benefit future generations. That means, first, that the cost of newly-accruing pension benefits should be fully-funded using the lower-risk interest rates assumed in the Fed/BEA data. But second, instead of seeking to pay off unfunded pension liabilities, which costs current generations and benefits future ones, governments will simply pay interest on unfunded pension debts.

Using 2018 data, the value of newly-accruing state/local pension liabilities was $167 billion, according to the BEA/Fed data. And the cost of simply servicing the 2018 unfunded pension debt of $4.5 trillion comes out to $178 billion, for a total cost of $345 billion. But do you know what actual state and local government contributions to public pensions were in 2018? Only $151 billion.

It’s hard to say precisely what pension sustainability means. But using reasonable assumptions, we currently seem to be far from it.

Biggs's article elicited this response on Twitter form NCPERS:


Take time to read the NCPERS study, In Tranquility or Turmoil, Public Pensions Keep Calm and Carry On, which is available here.

I'll jump straight to the conclusion:

The exclusive focus on rising public pension debt is analogous to looking at a single-entry
bookkeeping system, that is, looking at one side of the ledger. The Brookings study expands this approach by looking at both liabilities and the economic capacity of plan sponsors. While public pension debt is rising, the data clearly demonstrate that public-sectors employers’ economic capacity to handle that debt is also increasing. Our analysis shows that pension debt in the United States can be stabilized – and pensions can be sustained despite current losses due to the coronavirus pandemic – with minimal adjustments on an ongoing basis.

In a recent review and critique of the Brookings paper, Keith Brainard and Alex Brown of the National Association of State Retirement Administrators noted that the finding that pensions are sustainable in the context of employers’ economic capacity is encouraging. The authors caution, this hopeful outlook, however, does not mean that we should overlook the well-accepted principles and discipline of pension funding and risk management policies and practices.

It also does not mean that state and local governments should pursue a path – a path some are already on – that makes their revenue systems regressive and volatile and increases reliance on risky revenues schemes such as casinos, lotteries, and excise taxes. Pursuing such a path will undermine their ability to effectively make use of their economic capacity.

In short, public pension debt is sustainable in perpetuity if a stable ratio of debt to GDP is maintained. This can be achieved by monitoring this ratio on a regular basis and making minor adjustments along the way. In the meantime, policy makers must continue to follow good pension funding policies and discipline and align their revenue systems with their economies to best exploit the economic capacity of their states.

When policy makers have a clear understanding of the resources available to fund pensions and make the commitment to align economic and fiscal priorities appropriately, the result of public pension policy can indeed be happiness for taxpayers and workers alike.

Now, I have an issue with any claims that state "public pension debt is sustainable in perpetuity if a stable ratio of debt to GDP is maintained."

As I keep stating on this blog, all pensions -- public and private -- are all about matching assets with long dated liabilities.

It's not about who has outperformed on any given year, it's all about the funded status and making sure when your pension never runs out of money to pay retirees and future beneficiaries.

Unfortunately, for a multitude of reasons Mr. Biggs points out in his article, the rising cost of state and local government employee retirement plans, driven by benefit increases, overoptimistic investment return assumptions and failures by governments to make full contributions as required, have made the situation in the US untenable in some states.

The latest PEW research states the following:

At $1.24 trillion, the 50-state pension funding gap—the difference between a state retirement system’s assets and its liabilities—improved slightly in 2018 primarily due to strong investment performance. However, after a decade of economic recovery, the aggregate pension funding gap remains historically high and could increase by up to $500 billion based on market returns through March 2020, including recent losses related to the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the disparity between well-funded and underfunded state retirement systems is greater than it has ever been.

As policymakers anticipate another recession and increased budget pressures, policies on pensions will play an important role in determining how well states are able to weather an economic downturn. In this brief, The Pew Charitable Trusts identifies and examines practices that can help public officials better prepare their retirement systems for a recession and help them manage through it, with particular attention to proven policies followed by the best-funded states. Specifically, Pew finds four pension management practices that contribute to strong fiscal position:

  • Following funding policies that target debt reduction.
  • Lowering investment return assumptions.
  • Adopting cost-sharing policies and plan designs.
  • Implementing pension stress testing.
This brief assesses the effectiveness of these practices using 50-state data from 230 state retirement systems covering teachers, public safety workers, and other state and local public employees. The findings are based on trends since before the Great Recession, as well as over the five-year period since 2014, when the Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) implemented new reporting standards that allow for comparable analyses of funding and cash flow across state pension plans.
Take the time to read this brief here but here are some figures worth bearing in mind:






Remember, the average funded status is 71% and that was before the COVID crisis. Goldman Sachs estimates public pensions are now less than 60% funded on average.

As US long-term interest rates drop to record low levels and risk going negative, liabilities have exploded this year and even though stocks have snapped back, the funded status has surely deteriorated because the drop in rates has a disproportionate effect on liabilities.

Now, I happen to agree with the PEW recommendations, namely:
  • Following funding policies that target debt reduction.
  • Lowering investment return assumptions.
  • Adopting cost-sharing policies and plan designs.
  • Implementing pension stress testing.
The problem? When you lower your investment return assumptions, you are lowering your discount rate and that means you need to hike the contribution rate.

Public unions which represent public pension members are against any hike in the contribution rate as are many state governments which are strapped for cash.

The same goes for adopting cost-sharing policies. It makes perfect sense to adopt conditional inflation protection to temporarily suspend cost of living adjustments when public pensions are in a deficit but US public sector unions are dead set against it.

In Canada, some of the most successful public pensions -- OTPP, HOOPP and CAAT -- have all adopted a form of risk sharing, typically in the form of conditional inflation protection.

When times are tough, they will partially or fully remove inflation protection for a brief period and typically restore it retroactively when their plan is fully funded again.

This ensures intergenerational equity between active and retired members of the plan and it ensures that as more and more members retire, the risk of the plan is borne by active and retired members.

What else? Canadian pension plans use extremely low discount rates, on average 200 basis points lower than their US counterparts. This ensures their members and respective governments are contributing their fair share to fund these pensions.

And Canada's pension have world class governance which separates public pensions from the government, allowing them to set attractive compensation packages to manage more assets internally, lowering the cost of the plans.

So, maybe the answer to US public pension woes is to look up north and see what we are doing right.

In fact, Ingo Walter and Clive Lipshitz argue in The Hill that the US should look to Canada to reform its public pension system:

Observers of the diverse and often challenged American public pension system look north to Canada with a certain degree of admiration. Canadian public pension plans tend to be fully funded — some even have healthy surpluses. Most U.S. plans are in deficit, and several are unlikely to be sustainable. So what makes the Canadian system better? The inevitable response has to do with better governance. But it goes a lot deeper. It is the legal structure of Canadian public pension plans that enables strong governance.

Based on a new, comprehensive study of the largest Canadian and U.S. public pension systems– their design and performance – we found one feature of the Canadian model to be fundamental. If adopted in the U.S., it could reorient the relationship between employers and pension beneficiaries in the public sector, and even renew interest in defined benefit pensions for a significant group of private-sector employees. 

Canadian public pension plans underwent a series of reforms starting in the late 1980s. Until then, many of them were not in good shape. In some cases, there was an unhealthy relationship between government pension sponsors and plan members. Sponsors were willing to grant benefit enhancements but did not match them with increases in pension contributions. So, both employers and employees became concerned about system solvency. Employers worried that they had made promises that would be difficult to honor. Employees worried that what seemed to be too good to be true actually was. Unions fretted that pension promises might be reneged when future governments realized they were simply not affordable.

Federal and provincial political leaders, for whom pension reform might have been fairly low on the priority list, were forced to reckon with design flaws in the pension system. Kicking the can down the road increasingly looked like a mug’s game.

First in Ontario and then in other provinces, negotiations between government and unions reached a compromise, whereby public pension plans would be restructured under so-called “joint sponsorship.” Rather than being unilateral promises from government employers to their employees, pensions would instead come under the joint control of both governments and unions.

Fundamentally, this was a shift from a paternalistic model to one in which employee representatives got a seat at the table alongside employers. Benefit and contribution levels would no longer be determined in a separate and distinct way. Unions cut back on unreasonable demands knowing they would be jointly on the hook for ensuring plan solvency if benefits were not matched by corresponding future increases in contributions. 

In Canada, the joint sponsorship model was key to ensuring greater public pension sustainability. How is it relevant to the U.S.? 

In both countries, there are few legal precedents for what happens when a public pension plan is unable to pay contractual pension benefits. By establishing a pension trust under joint sponsorship – independent of government – the responsibility for future funding is insulated from public finance. Market forces in public employment will help ensure that governments do not promise benefits they will be unable to pay, and that unions do not demand benefits future workers will be unlikely to receive. 

There are many other features of the Canadian model of sustainable public pensions that bear consideration, but joint sponsorship is at the heart of the model. The governance advantage that pervades the Canadian system emanates from this feature, as each pension constituency selects trustees to represent its interests.

Potentially, the basic features of joint sponsorship could also be used to benefit certain private sector pensions. In the United States, ERISA was enacted in 1974 primarily to protect private sector workers from egregious corporate activities such as raiding of pension funds. But it had the unintended consequence of encouraging companies to discontinue defined-benefit pension plans because the obligation to cover pension liability gaps became extremely costly. If pensions were established as trusts – independent of the sponsor – benefit and contribution levels may well move in tandem, with employee unions assuming joint responsibility for adequate pension funding. 

Retirement planning is complex for everyone. Defined-benefit plans have received bad press for decades, but if structured carefully they provide numerous benefits relative to self-directed savings. These include risk pooling, professional investment management, lower expenses and a more sensible approach to withdrawing pension assets during retirement (decumulation). The joint sponsorship model is worth considering in the public sector and perhaps even in the private sector as well.

Take the time to read Ingo Walter and Clive Lipshitz's study, Public Pension Reform and the 49th Parallel: Lessons from Canada for the U.S. which is available here.

I have long, long argued the US needs to adopt the Canadian model, but I've also stated there are powerful interest groups which don't want this to happen (basically private equity and hedge fund asset managers which gorge them on fees).

This is why I'm convinced US public pension bailouts are coming, it's only a matter of time.

In fact, with US unemployment at record levels and the GDP contracting at a record pace, there will be no choice but to bail them out if they can't make their obligations:

And remember what I keep telling you, pension bailouts are all about bailing out Wall Street which includes big banks and their big private equity and hedge fund clients that need perpetual funding.

It has nothing to do with bailing out pensioners but politicians will make it look that way.

Below, California State Senator John Moorlach explains the most consequential issues that his state's pension system currently faces. The promises that were made to participants in the pension system were made in a time of significant growth, but the time to deliver on these promises is coming at a point where pension fund managers are struggling to maintain high enough returns. California's pensions have increasingly become underfunded--and Senator Moorlach sees its story ending in bankruptcy.

Big Tech Crushes It. Now What?

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Yun Li and Fred Imbert of CNBC report the Dow closes 110 points higher amid Big Tech rally, Apple soars 10% to a record:

Stocks wiped out earlier losses and closed higher on Friday as the biggest tech companies and market leaders — Amazon, Apple and Facebook — soared after posting stellar quarterly results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 114.67 points, or 0.4%, to 26,428.32 after dropping about 300 points at its low of the day. The S&P 500 climbed 0.7%, or 24.90 points, to 3,271.12, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.4%, or 157.46 points, to 10,745.27, led by a 10% jump in Apple shares.

The major equity averages also wrapped up the month of July with solid gains and posted their fourth straight positive month. The S&P 500 gained 5.5% in July,  while the Dow and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.3% and 6.8%, respectively.

Still, a few negative headlines capped the gains in the broader market Friday:

  • Emergency unemployment benefits are set to expire Friday and Congress and the White House still seem far apart on an agreement. White House Chief of staff Mark Meadows said Democratic leaders have rejected four offers regarding the coronavirus relief bill.
  • Dow-component Chevron fell 2.7% after the oil giant reported an $8.3 billion loss in the second quarter as the pandemic “significantly reduced demand.”
  • Consumer sentiment deteriorated this month amid a resurgence in new coronavirus cases. University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index came in at 72.5 for July, down from June’s 78.1 and below Dow Jones estimates of 72.7.
  • Stocks linked to an economic recovery like banks and retailers were lower as investors assessed the biggest quarterly gross domestic product contraction on record and persistently weak job growth. JPMorgan and Home Depot both ended the day in the red.
Big Tech crushes expectations

Apple reported a blowout quarter, sending shares up 10.4% to a new all-time high. The company said its overall sales expanded by 11%, and it also announced a 4-for-1 stock split. With Friday’s rally, Apple took over Saudi Aramco to become the world’s most valuable company.

Amazon, meanwhile, jumped 3.7% as the company saw its sales skyrocket during the coronavirus pandemic. Facebook shares rallied more than 7% as the social media giant posted revenue growth of 11% even amid the coronavirus pandemic slowdown.

Google-parent Alphabet also posted better-than-expected earnings, but the company’s overall revenue declined for the first time in its history. Revenue for Google Cloud were also just below analyst expectations. Alphabet shares fell more than 3% on Friday.

“Obviously, no one was doubting any of those companies so the fact they all exceeded expectations isn’t exactly shocking,” Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge, said in a note Friday. “Investors are now trying to smooth out some of the numbers (i.e. how much of the monster upside was a function of extremely conservative guidance along w/an unsustainable spike in revenue and decline in expenses?)”

Big Tech has been the stalwart on Wall Street this year. Amazon and Apple are up 71% and 44%, respectively, in 2020. Facebook and Alphabet have risen double digits over that time period. 

Meanwhile, investors continued to flock to safe-haven assets amid the uncertainty about the economic recovery. Gold futures spiked to an all-time high of $2,005.4 an ounce on Friday, crossing the $2,000 mark for the first time.

It's Friday, here were the big moves today in shares of Apple, Amazon and Facebook:

Amazon and Apple have been leading tech shares and the entire market higher:

Apple shares actually dipped to roughly $370 a share a week ago and exploded up this week. That was a nice trade as it never pierced below its 50-day moving average but I totally missed it.

But even with all the explosive moves in a few big tech stocks today, the Dow could only muster a gain of 114 points which tells me this is a very narrow rally and once the big funds start selling, this entire stock market rally is in trouble. 

I'm also highly skeptical of Apple's revenues which conveniently "smashed" expectations. Maybe people are using their stimulus money to buy a new iPhone but that money is running out and with the economy in the doldrums, I just don't see how Apple will continue to crush its earnings.

Don't get me wrong, it's a great company, run very well, and has a balance sheet that others can only dream of, but how much of the good news is already priced into its shares?

The same thing goes for Amazon and other tech shares which seem to be levitating up in this surreal market, totally oblivious to the global pandemic.

Speaking of surreal markets, Seth Klarman said the Federal Reserve is treating investors like children and is helping create bizarre market conditions that are unsupported by economic data:

“Surreal doesn’t even begin to describe this moment,” Klarman said in a letter to investors reviewed by Bloomberg News. Investor “psychology is surprisingly ebullient even though business fundamentals are often dreadful,” he added.

The culprit is the Fed, Klarman said in the 16-page letter.

“Investors are being infantilized by the relentless Federal Reserve activity,” said Klarman, who runs hedge fund firm Baupost Group. “It’s as if the Fed considers them foolish children, unable to rationally set the prices of securities so it must intervene. When the market has a tantrum, the benevolent Fed has a soothing yet enabling response.”

Going further, he said: “As with the 30-year-olds still living in their parents’ basements, we can only wonder whether the markets will ever be expected to make it on their own.”

Klarman said “we were significant net sellers” as prices rallied in the second quarter. The hedge fund delivered a gain of about 10% in the three months ended June 30, and was down about 2% for the first half of the year, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Baupost’s cash balance was 31% on June 30, up from 26% disclosed in April, the result of selling a recently purchased portfolio of mortgage-backed securities and one corporate debt holding, as well as net stock sales.

A spokeswoman at Boston-based Baupost declined to comment.

Keynes always said markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent and the real pain trade remains up, so I wouldn't be surprised if this folly continues until the fall.

But the truth is you just don't know, these markets can turn on a dime, trying to predict them is next to impossible.

Still, when I look at the daily chart of the QQQs, it looks bullish but toppish here and I wouldn't be surprised if the big rally in tech comes to a grinding halt:

What remains to be seen is whether a rotation out of tech into other sectors occurs, giving the overall market room to continue grinding higher:

With the Fed reiterating this week that it remains in super accommodative mode, I don't see what will stop the rally in stocks unless we get renewed tensions with China or no renewal of the emergency unemployment benefits.

Investors now have a choice, to buy some beaten down value plays hoping the rally will broaden out or to continue plowing money into big tech names hoping the momentum will carry tech to another incredible year like last year despite the pandemic.

Both of these options make me very uneasy for a lot of reasons and other much larger investors face the same dilemma.

Anyway, here is the performance breakdown of the S&P sectors this week:

Not surprisingly, technology led all other sectors, gaining 5% this week and energy underperformed, declining by 4.3%.

Typically, when tech shares outperform massively like this week, quant funds take their profits, so I expect a pullback next week.

And here are the top performing large cap stocks this week:

The one that caught my attention was UPS since I was tracking it from the end of March to May but forgot about it and didn't pull the trigger when shares were below $100:

These are trading markets, you need to really pay close attention and it's not just big tech making all the big gains.

Below, CNBC's Jim Cramer raves about Apple's quarterly earnings results and how he thinks the company has managed to become so successful.

And Howard Ward, chief investment officer of growth equities at GAMCO, joins"Squawk Box" to discuss why longer-term, investors can feel comfortable buying tech stocks.

BCI Gains 3% in Fiscal 2020

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British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (BCI) announced an 8.5% annualized rate of return for the 10-year period for Fiscal 2020:
British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (BCI) ended our fiscal year on March 31, 2020, with $171.3 billion of assets under management. The $17.8 billion increase in net assets reflects investment gains of $4.0 billion and $13.8 billion of client net contributions.

Over the 10-year period, the annualized return for the combined pension plan[1] clients was 8.5 per cent compared to a benchmark of 7.2 per cent, representing $11.2 billion in added value. Over the five-year period, BCI generated an annualized rate of return of 6.0 per cent against a benchmark of 5.2 per cent, representing $4.4 billion in added value.

Despite the extraordinary societal and financial circumstances faced during the fourth quarter due to the COVID-19 global pandemic, our annualized return for the combined pension plan clients stands in positive territory at 3.0 per cent, net of all fees, slightly lagging the benchmark by 0.25 per cent.

“Our results reflect a solid performance despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting market volatility,” said Gordon J. Fyfe, CEO/CIO of BCI. “Adding $11.2 billion in value over the last ten years is a proud accomplishment for the entire BCI team. Our commitment to creating secure financial futures for plan beneficiaries, many of whom continue to endure substantial changes to their daily lives, drives BCI’s activities now more than ever.”

All asset classes contributed positively to the combined pension plan portfolio absolute return except for public equities, which were the most impacted by the recent downturn in the fourth quarter of BCI’s fiscal year as financial markets experienced one of the worst, and fastest, peak-to-trough declines in history. Our public markets program was defensively positioned heading into the pandemic: public equities were underweighted; and fixed income was overweighted. As a result, our portfolios broadly outperformed their benchmarks through the market downturn.

On a relative basis, most of BCI’s investment strategies beat their benchmarks during fiscal 2020, while a very strong 16.2 per cent performance in private equity lagged its benchmark for the year due to unhedged foreign currency exposure in the portfolio, after having outperformed the same benchmark by 15.8 per cent last year.

Our real estate program, managed by QuadReal Property Group (QuadReal), returned 8.5 per cent against a benchmark of 6.3 per cent. QuadReal marked down the value of the domestic real estate portfolio in late fiscal 2020 by 1.4 per cent to reflect more conservative valuations given the uncertainty in the Canadian market at that time. With this adjustment, QuadReal continued to reduce potential risk in the portfolio while maximizing diversity and liquidity on behalf of BCI and our clients.

BCI’s combined pension client one-year return represents a $253 million relative underperformance for the year, compared to a $2.0 billion outperformance in fiscal 2019.

“The best measure of our performance is our long-term results,” said Gordon J. Fyfe. “Since inception, BCI has focused on the long-term and diversified the portfolio across a wide range of asset classes that are aligned with our clients’ long-term return objectives and risk requirements.”

In 2020, BCI celebrates 20 years of investing globally on behalf of British Columbia’s public sector. BCI’s longer-term return exceeds the required actuarial rates of returns for most of our six major pension plan clients — currently ranging from 5.65 to 6.75 per cent. As a result, our clients’ most recent funding ratios vary from 103 per cent to 129 per cent. Over our 20-year history, through market downturns and material disruptions, BCI has outperformed the benchmark by 0.7 per cent on average per year, which represents $12.2 billion of value-added activity. Returns are important — for every $100 a pension plan member receives in retirement benefits, on average $75 is provided by BCI’s investment activity.

“Six years ago, we started transforming into an active, in-house asset manager and brought more of the investment decisions back to BCI for greater control over the strategy and risk management while increasing portfolio diversification and lowering costs,” said Gordon J. Fyfe. “Many of our clients have used their strong financial health to update their strategic asset allocations by reducing exposure to public equities, and increasing allocations to bonds, private markets, and credit.”

As at March 31, 2020:

PUBLIC MARKETS

Public markets, composed of fixed income and public equity investments, represents $112.8 billion and accounts for 65.9 per cent of net assets under management.

BCI’s fixed income program represents $57.1 billion and 33.4 per cent of net assets under management. The program invests in public and private market debt, as well as oversees our exposure to foreign currency. In fiscal 2020, we introduced a leveraged bond fund and funding desk capability to manage and optimize BCI’s internal liquidity and provide direct access to wholesale funding markets.

Our $55.7 billion public equities program represents 32.5 per cent of net assets under management. In fiscal 2020, we continued to internalize asset management by bringing $3 billion in-house and deploying the capital through BCI’s internally managed active equity pooled funds. BCI introduced the global fundamental portfolio that is mandated to create a defensive portfolio by investing in quality companies with well-established competitive advantages, as well as the internally managed active U.S. small cap portfolio. The global partnership fund was launched in fiscal 2020 to deploy active risk in more diversified strategies within less crowded markets.

In addition to fixed income and public equities, our public markets program manages $9.7 billion of leverage which equates to (5.7) per cent of the total assets under management.

Ahead of the COVID-19 pandemic, BCI’s public markets program was defensively positioned with a quality bias toward non-cyclical, large companies in equity markets and high-quality debt in fixed income. As a result, our portfolios broadly outperformed their benchmarks through the market downturn in late fiscal 2020. BCI maintains a long-term perspective and disciplined approach during this period of uncertainty. Taking advantage of dislocations and volatility in the markets and putting capital to work for our clients has been a key focus for our public equities team.

PRIVATE EQUITY

Private equity represents $17.9 billion and 10.4 per cent of net assets under management. With a sector-focused strategy, the program invested $5.3 billion in new capital for the year ending December 31, 2019, including $1.8 billion to eight direct investments. Notable investments included: Press Ganey Associates, a U.S. healthcare patient experience survey company; BMS Group, a U.K. independent specialty wholesale insurance brokerage platform; and Valence Surface Technologies, an aerospace surface finishing platform, purchased in partnership with ATL Partners.

The program also committed $3.7 billion to 17 new fund commitments and one top-up fund commitment, reinforcing strategic relationships with existing core partners, as well as seeding new partners with capital to invest as the economic cycle changes and opportunities arise. BCI completed 10 private equity fund sales for total proceeds of $800 million.

The ratio of direct investments to total private equity assets under management increased to 38.0 per cent compared to 32.0 per cent in fiscal 2019.

INFRASTRUCTURE & RENEWABLE RESOURCES

Infrastructure & renewable resources represents $18.3 billion and 10.7 per cent of net assets under management.

The infrastructure component is diversified by geographic region and sector, and consists of a global portfolio of regulated utilities in the water, electricity, and wastewater sectors; energy transmission; as well as roads, port terminals, and light rail transit. We seek meaningful equity positions allowing us to adopt an active governance approach. For the year ending December 31, 2019, we committed $1.3 billion to infrastructure assets. Notable investments included partnering with like-minded global institutional investors to own Czech Grid Holdings, the largest regulated gas distribution network in the Czech Republic, our first direct infrastructure investment in Central and Eastern Europe. We also initiated a new partnership with a global infrastructure fund manager focusing on developing markets, providing our clients with exposure to new regions and sectors.

The renewable resources component invests in long-life renewable resource assets that are essential to a growing population and increase in economic mobility. Our strategy involves investing in majority or co-controlling positions, or as a strong minority partner. For the year ending December 31, 2019, BCI initiated a new strategic partnership with Paine Schwartz, an investment management firm specializing in sustainable food chain investing.

REAL ESTATE AND MORTGAGES

QuadReal, a company owned by BCI and created in 2016, actively manages our clients’ real estate and mortgage investment portfolios, which represent $32.0 billion and 18.7 per cent of total net assets under management.

The $25.5 billion real estate program accounts for 14.9 per cent of BCI’s net assets under management, of which $16.8 billion represents domestic assets, while international assets total $8.6 billion. QuadReal sold $2.4 billion in Canadian assets in fiscal 2020, highlighted by the first tranche of planned partial interest dispositions of 42 assets to RBC Global Asset Management Inc. ($1.5 billion) for the benefit of its long-term 50/50 partnership with BCI.  In addition to preserving ownership of valuable assets, it allows QuadReal to re-deploy into more value-adding assets or developments in Canada and extend its reach in international markets. For the year ended December 31, 2019, QuadReal committed $2.5 billion to increase our clients’ international real estate holdings to 34.0 per cent of the overall portfolio, compared to 28.4 per cent in the year previous.

QuadReal is a significant lender to the commercial real estate industry, focusing on direct mortgage investments with strong-yielding and attractive risk-return profiles. The $6.5 billion-mortgage program accounts for 3.8 per cent of BCI’s net assets under management. QuadReal continues to expand the mortgage program into the U.S. to provide clients with geographical diversification. Commitments to both domestic and U.S. commercial mortgages totaled $2.4 billion for the year.

Our costs

BCI is committed to maintaining fiscal discipline as we continue to expand our global investment footprint as an active, in-house asset manager. Our pension fund and insurance fund clients, representing 98 per cent of total assets managed, are moving into more private assets, including private equity, infrastructure & renewable resources, real estate, commercial mortgages, and private credit. This entails higher investment management fees while providing the potential for higher risk-adjusted returns. BCI’s combined pension plan returns, including the returns for each asset class, are reported net of costs.

BCI’s total costs, consisting of internal, external direct, and external indirect costs, were $1.3 billion or 79.0 cents per $100 of assets under management for fiscal 2020, all of which are netted against investment returns. Internal costs, operating costs over which BCI has direct control including salaries, rent, technology, and consulting fees, represented 19.1 per cent of total costs in fiscal 2020 (or 15 cents per $100 of net assets under management) compared with 24.1 per cent of total costs in fiscal 2019.

External direct costs represented 28.2 per cent for the fiscal year (or 22 cents per $100 of net assets under management), while external indirect costs accounted for 52.7 per cent of costs (or 42 cents per $100 of net assets under management). The external direct and external indirect costs for fiscal 2020 reflect the increase in assets under management, as well as our clients increasing their allocations to include more privately-held assets. External managers and partners typically earn performance fees when their investment decisions outperform pre-established benchmarks. While strong performance results earn higher net returns, BCI’s investment management fees also increase.

As BCI provides more transparency, our total costs include indirect external asset management fees which are usually not disclosed in the industry as they are netted from external partners’ performance.

BCI Fiscal 2020 Highlights

  • Committed $11.5 billion to private markets — private equity, infrastructure & renewable resources, real estate, and mortgages. Notable direct investments included: BMS Group; Press Ganey; Waterlogic; and Czech Grid Holdings, our first direct infrastructure investment in Central and Eastern Europe.
  • Welcomed the Insurance Corporation of British Columbia (ICBC) as a new client. BCI was awarded the mandate for managing ICBC’s insurance fund and its pension fund.
  • Introduced a corporate-wide environmental, social, and governance (ESG) strategy to ensure these considerations are consistently integrated and applied across all asset classes at BCI.
  • Transitioned the responsibility for managing BCI’s commercial mortgage program to QuadReal Property Group.
  • Completed a multi-year project that resulted in the introduction of a new investment management platform, which increases BCI’s capability to process trades, provides deeper insights into our portfolios, and reduces operational complexity.
  • Implemented a new asset liability management system that allows BCI to strengthen our advice in investment strategy.
  • Recognized as one of Canada’s Top 100 Employers and one of BC’s Top Employers while adding 58 employees, strengthening BCI’s expertise in the areas of portfolio management, asset management, risk management, information technology, and corporate & investor relations.
  • Contributed $75,000 to the Rapid Relief Fund established to provide emergency assistance to those in need in the Greater Victoria area.This was a monetary reflection of the working day that our employees are allowed, but not able during the COVID-19 pandemic, to spend with a local worthy cause. BCI’s executive management team contributed a further $50,000, and BCI employees made individual donations.

KEY FACTS

BCI’s 2019–2020 Corporate Annual Report will be released on August 17, 2020 and will be available on www.bci.ca

About BCI

With $171.3 billion of managed assets, British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (BCI) is a leading provider of investment management services to British Columbia’s public sector. We generate the investment returns that help our institutional clients build financially secure futures. With our global outlook, we seek investment opportunities that convert savings into productive capital that will meet our clients’ risk/return requirements over time. We offer investment options across a range of asset classes: fixed income; public and private equity; infrastructure & renewable resources; real estate, and mortgages.

BCI is the last of the major Canadian pensions to report its results.

Its fiscal year ends at the end of March, like CPP Investments and PSP Investments, but it wouldn't be fair to make a direct comparison for a lot of reasons, the key ones outlined below:
  • BCI's active, in-house asset management started six years ago when Gordon Fyfe replaced Doug Pearce as President and CEO (Pearce retired).
  • The main thing Gordon did was shift the focus on private markets (private equity, real estate, infrastructure and natural resources).
  • He hired Jim Pittman from PSP Investments to head up private equity and launched QuadReal Property Group (“QuadReal”), an independent privately held company based in Vancouver, Canada to manage BCI's real estate assets.
  • Prior to 2016, BCI was mostly invested in public equities, fixed income and real estate with some exposure to private equity and infrastructure. Gordon's mandate was to switch the focus away from public markets to private markets and diversify BCI's massive real estate holdings away from Canada to the rest of the world.
  • Last year, BCI signed a record $7-billion partnership with RBC Global Asset Management which allowed it to sell a 50% stake of its Canadian real estate holdings to other smaller institutional investors while it retained a 50% stake. The proceeds will be used to buy more US, European and Asian commercial real estate.
  • In private equity, Jim Pittman and his team have managed to increase the  ratio of direct investments to total private equity assets under management to 38% compared to 32% in fiscal 2019 (mature PE programs in Canada have 50% or more in co-investments). Those direct investments are co-investments with partners where BCI pays no fees and it allows BCI to ramp up its private equity allocations.
  • Still, private equity equity represents $17.9 billion or 10.4% of net assets under management, which is an improvement over the last five years but well below the 25% of CPP Investments or even the 14% allocation at PSP Investments.
  • Regardless of these differences, BCI's fiscal 2020 results are in line with those of CPP Investments which gained 3.1% in fiscal 2020 and better than PSP Investments' results which was a loss of 0.6% in fiscal 2020.
  • Interestingly, BCI disclosed its public markets program manages $9.7 billion of leverage which equates to (5.7) per cent of the total assets under management. So, as in other Canadian pensions, leverage is being used for an efficient use of capital and to juice up returns.
Now, in terms of performance, public equities performed particularly poorly (not as bad relative to benchmarks). Private equity performed far better for the fiscal year, at 16.2%, although it underperformed its 22.2% benchmark.

Infrastructure showed strong returns at 8.6% (benchmark was 7%) and real estate at 8.5% (benchmark was 6.3%), with global real estate investments (12.2%) driving harder than domestic real estate (7.6%).

I must admit, I am a little surprised that BCI's real estate results are that strong given their exposure to Canadian office space and retail but I guess QuadReal is doing a great job.

I recently discussed how QuadReal launched its green bond framework to finance sustainable investments and projects through BCI QuadReal Realty.

I would have liked to have seen BCI's annual report but the press release clearly states BCI’s 2019–2020 Corporate Annual Report will be released on August 17, 2020.

This marks the first time ever that BCI releases its annual report later than its results and given it's just two weeks away, the right thing would have been to release the results and annual report at the same time.

I will make sure to edit this blog comment and provide up-to-date executive compensation figures and will then start the annual Pension Pulse compensation report where I post executive compensation at all Canadian pensions (and more).

Lastly, BCI has to do more to improve its communication strategy and while it has done incremental steps, it lags all its major Canadian peers on this front.

I want to hear more from Gordon Fyfe, Jim Pittman, Stefan Dunatov, Daniel Garant, and Lincoln Webb and see content posted on LinkedIn, YouTube, Twitter and Facebook (although, I loathe Facebook and Instagram, think it's a monumental waste of time).

By the way, BCI's executive management needs more gender diversification and like the rest of Canada's big pensions, the organization needs to improve diversity and inclusion at all levels and start hiring more people with disabilities.

It's not hard when people work from home, BCI and the rest of Canada's large pensions can literally hire disabled Canadians from all over the country who can easily work for them. That will get their numbers up from 0% to 1% (I'm being facetious but deadly serious, it's a crime at all of Canada's large organizations).

That's all from me, I will edit this comment on August 17th when I return from my vacation and BCI releases its annual report.

I'll be around tracking pension news and looking mostly at stocks in the market, so feel free to email me if you have something to discuss (LKolivakis@gmail.com).

This is also a good time to thank the few of you who take the time to donate to this blog and show your financial support, it's greatly appreciated.

The rest of you who have never contributed a dime but read my comments religiously,  you too can easily contribute using the PayPal options at the top left-hand side of this blog under my picture. Don't be shy, especially if you like the content and want me to continue this blog. 

Alright, vacation time, I'll be back posting comments on Monday, August 17th and will edit this comment then. If you need to reach me, I'll be around, just email me.

Below, in the 10 editions of the database that Postmedia has produced, executives at BCI have consistently topped the list:
Workers at that agency, responsible for investing money for government pension plans, represent more than half of those 100 top earners. CEO Gordon Fyfe was the best-paid public servant in B.C. in 2018 with a salary of $3 million and expenses of $34,000.

The Investment Management Corporation has always maintained that it manages billions worth of assets, so must offer compensation packages that are competitive with private industry to attract top employees. Its executives are paid through the pension plans they manage.

“BCI does not receive a single dollar of public funding assistance from government. As a result, the provincial government does not play a role in determining compensation rates for BCI executive and employee salaries,” the Finance Ministry said in an email.
I can guarantee you BCI's executives will once again top the list in 2019 and that's just fine by me even if British Columbia's socialist/ communist press disagrees (they really need to get a life).

When it comes to public pensions, you get what you pay for, and if you're not compensating these people properly, you will get lousy long-term results which will be far more costly to B.C.'s taxpayers.

Keep this in mind as you search through B.C.'s famous public sector salary database below.

The database is instructive on one level, however, it shows you the total remuneration of each employee at BCI making over $75,000 a year and gives you an idea of what other large Canadian pensions pay for similar positions.

BCI's 2019-2020 Corporate Annual Report

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Today, BCI released its 2019-2020 Corporate Annual Report. A few weeks ago, (BCI) announced an 8.5% annualized rate of return for the 10-year period for Fiscal 2020:

British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (BCI) ended our fiscal year on March 31, 2020, with $171.3 billion of assets under management. The $17.8 billion increase in net assets reflects investment gains of $4.0 billion and $13.8 billion of client net contributions.

Over the 10-year period, the annualized return for the combined pension plan[1] clients was 8.5 per cent compared to a benchmark of 7.2 per cent, representing $11.2 billion in added value. Over the five-year period, BCI generated an annualized rate of return of 6.0 per cent against a benchmark of 5.2 per cent, representing $4.4 billion in added value.

Despite the extraordinary societal and financial circumstances faced during the fourth quarter due to the COVID-19 global pandemic, our annualized return for the combined pension plan clients stands in positive territory at 3.0 per cent, net of all fees, slightly lagging the benchmark by 0.25 per cent.

“Our results reflect a solid performance despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting market volatility,” said Gordon J. Fyfe, CEO/CIO of BCI. “Adding $11.2 billion in value over the last ten years is a proud accomplishment for the entire BCI team. Our commitment to creating secure financial futures for plan beneficiaries, many of whom continue to endure substantial changes to their daily lives, drives BCI’s activities now more than ever.”

All asset classes contributed positively to the combined pension plan portfolio absolute return except for public equities, which were the most impacted by the recent downturn in the fourth quarter of BCI’s fiscal year as financial markets experienced one of the worst, and fastest, peak-to-trough declines in history. Our public markets program was defensively positioned heading into the pandemic: public equities were underweighted; and fixed income was overweighted. As a result, our portfolios broadly outperformed their benchmarks through the market downturn.

On a relative basis, most of BCI’s investment strategies beat their benchmarks during fiscal 2020, while a very strong 16.2 per cent performance in private equity lagged its benchmark for the year due to unhedged foreign currency exposure in the portfolio, after having outperformed the same benchmark by 15.8 per cent last year.

Our real estate program, managed by QuadReal Property Group (QuadReal), returned 8.5 per cent against a benchmark of 6.3 per cent. QuadReal marked down the value of the domestic real estate portfolio in late fiscal 2020 by 1.4 per cent to reflect more conservative valuations given the uncertainty in the Canadian market at that time. With this adjustment, QuadReal continued to reduce potential risk in the portfolio while maximizing diversity and liquidity on behalf of BCI and our clients.

BCI’s combined pension client one-year return represents a $253 million relative underperformance for the year, compared to a $2.0 billion outperformance in fiscal 2019.

“The best measure of our performance is our long-term results,” said Gordon J. Fyfe. “Since inception, BCI has focused on the long-term and diversified the portfolio across a wide range of asset classes that are aligned with our clients’ long-term return objectives and risk requirements.”

In 2020, BCI celebrates 20 years of investing globally on behalf of British Columbia’s public sector. BCI’s longer-term return exceeds the required actuarial rates of returns for most of our six major pension plan clients — currently ranging from 5.65 to 6.75 per cent. As a result, our clients’ most recent funding ratios vary from 103 per cent to 129 per cent. Over our 20-year history, through market downturns and material disruptions, BCI has outperformed the benchmark by 0.7 per cent on average per year, which represents $12.2 billion of value-added activity. Returns are important — for every $100 a pension plan member receives in retirement benefits, on average $75 is provided by BCI’s investment activity.

“Six years ago, we started transforming into an active, in-house asset manager and brought more of the investment decisions back to BCI for greater control over the strategy and risk management while increasing portfolio diversification and lowering costs,” said Gordon J. Fyfe. “Many of our clients have used their strong financial health to update their strategic asset allocations by reducing exposure to public equities, and increasing allocations to bonds, private markets, and credit.”

As at March 31, 2020:

PUBLIC MARKETS

Public markets, composed of fixed income and public equity investments, represents $112.8 billion and accounts for 65.9 per cent of net assets under management.

BCI’s fixed income program represents $57.1 billion and 33.4 per cent of net assets under management. The program invests in public and private market debt, as well as oversees our exposure to foreign currency. In fiscal 2020, we introduced a leveraged bond fund and funding desk capability to manage and optimize BCI’s internal liquidity and provide direct access to wholesale funding markets.

Our $55.7 billion public equities program represents 32.5 per cent of net assets under management. In fiscal 2020, we continued to internalize asset management by bringing $3 billion in-house and deploying the capital through BCI’s internally managed active equity pooled funds. BCI introduced the global fundamental portfolio that is mandated to create a defensive portfolio by investing in quality companies with well-established competitive advantages, as well as the internally managed active U.S. small cap portfolio. The global partnership fund was launched in fiscal 2020 to deploy active risk in more diversified strategies within less crowded markets.

In addition to fixed income and public equities, our public markets program manages $9.7 billion of leverage which equates to (5.7) per cent of the total assets under management.

Ahead of the COVID-19 pandemic, BCI’s public markets program was defensively positioned with a quality bias toward non-cyclical, large companies in equity markets and high-quality debt in fixed income. As a result, our portfolios broadly outperformed their benchmarks through the market downturn in late fiscal 2020. BCI maintains a long-term perspective and disciplined approach during this period of uncertainty. Taking advantage of dislocations and volatility in the markets and putting capital to work for our clients has been a key focus for our public equities team.

PRIVATE EQUITY

Private equity represents $17.9 billion and 10.4 per cent of net assets under management. With a sector-focused strategy, the program invested $5.3 billion in new capital for the year ending December 31, 2019, including $1.8 billion to eight direct investments. Notable investments included: Press Ganey Associates, a U.S. healthcare patient experience survey company; BMS Group, a U.K. independent specialty wholesale insurance brokerage platform; and Valence Surface Technologies, an aerospace surface finishing platform, purchased in partnership with ATL Partners.

The program also committed $3.7 billion to 17 new fund commitments and one top-up fund commitment, reinforcing strategic relationships with existing core partners, as well as seeding new partners with capital to invest as the economic cycle changes and opportunities arise. BCI completed 10 private equity fund sales for total proceeds of $800 million.

The ratio of direct investments to total private equity assets under management increased to 38.0 per cent compared to 32.0 per cent in fiscal 2019.

INFRASTRUCTURE & RENEWABLE RESOURCES

Infrastructure & renewable resources represents $18.3 billion and 10.7 per cent of net assets under management.

The infrastructure component is diversified by geographic region and sector, and consists of a global portfolio of regulated utilities in the water, electricity, and wastewater sectors; energy transmission; as well as roads, port terminals, and light rail transit. We seek meaningful equity positions allowing us to adopt an active governance approach. For the year ending December 31, 2019, we committed $1.3 billion to infrastructure assets. Notable investments included partnering with like-minded global institutional investors to own Czech Grid Holdings, the largest regulated gas distribution network in the Czech Republic, our first direct infrastructure investment in Central and Eastern Europe. We also initiated a new partnership with a global infrastructure fund manager focusing on developing markets, providing our clients with exposure to new regions and sectors.

The renewable resources component invests in long-life renewable resource assets that are essential to a growing population and increase in economic mobility. Our strategy involves investing in majority or co-controlling positions, or as a strong minority partner. For the year ending December 31, 2019, BCI initiated a new strategic partnership with Paine Schwartz, an investment management firm specializing in sustainable food chain investing.

REAL ESTATE AND MORTGAGES

QuadReal, a company owned by BCI and created in 2016, actively manages our clients’ real estate and mortgage investment portfolios, which represent $32.0 billion and 18.7 per cent of total net assets under management.

The $25.5 billion real estate program accounts for 14.9 per cent of BCI’s net assets under management, of which $16.8 billion represents domestic assets, while international assets total $8.6 billion. QuadReal sold $2.4 billion in Canadian assets in fiscal 2020, highlighted by the first tranche of planned partial interest dispositions of 42 assets to RBC Global Asset Management Inc. ($1.5 billion) for the benefit of its long-term 50/50 partnership with BCI.  In addition to preserving ownership of valuable assets, it allows QuadReal to re-deploy into more value-adding assets or developments in Canada and extend its reach in international markets. For the year ended December 31, 2019, QuadReal committed $2.5 billion to increase our clients’ international real estate holdings to 34.0 per cent of the overall portfolio, compared to 28.4 per cent in the year previous.

QuadReal is a significant lender to the commercial real estate industry, focusing on direct mortgage investments with strong-yielding and attractive risk-return profiles. The $6.5 billion-mortgage program accounts for 3.8 per cent of BCI’s net assets under management. QuadReal continues to expand the mortgage program into the U.S. to provide clients with geographical diversification. Commitments to both domestic and U.S. commercial mortgages totaled $2.4 billion for the year.

Our costs

BCI is committed to maintaining fiscal discipline as we continue to expand our global investment footprint as an active, in-house asset manager. Our pension fund and insurance fund clients, representing 98 per cent of total assets managed, are moving into more private assets, including private equity, infrastructure & renewable resources, real estate, commercial mortgages, and private credit. This entails higher investment management fees while providing the potential for higher risk-adjusted returns. BCI’s combined pension plan returns, including the returns for each asset class, are reported net of costs.

BCI’s total costs, consisting of internal, external direct, and external indirect costs, were $1.3 billion or 79.0 cents per $100 of assets under management for fiscal 2020, all of which are netted against investment returns. Internal costs, operating costs over which BCI has direct control including salaries, rent, technology, and consulting fees, represented 19.1 per cent of total costs in fiscal 2020 (or 15 cents per $100 of net assets under management) compared with 24.1 per cent of total costs in fiscal 2019.

External direct costs represented 28.2 per cent for the fiscal year (or 22 cents per $100 of net assets under management), while external indirect costs accounted for 52.7 per cent of costs (or 42 cents per $100 of net assets under management). The external direct and external indirect costs for fiscal 2020 reflect the increase in assets under management, as well as our clients increasing their allocations to include more privately-held assets. External managers and partners typically earn performance fees when their investment decisions outperform pre-established benchmarks. While strong performance results earn higher net returns, BCI’s investment management fees also increase.

As BCI provides more transparency, our total costs include indirect external asset management fees which are usually not disclosed in the industry as they are netted from external partners’ performance.

BCI Fiscal 2020 Highlights

  • Committed $11.5 billion to private markets — private equity, infrastructure & renewable resources, real estate, and mortgages. Notable direct investments included: BMS Group; Press Ganey; Waterlogic; and Czech Grid Holdings, our first direct infrastructure investment in Central and Eastern Europe.
  • Welcomed the Insurance Corporation of British Columbia (ICBC) as a new client. BCI was awarded the mandate for managing ICBC’s insurance fund and its pension fund.
  • Introduced a corporate-wide environmental, social, and governance (ESG) strategy to ensure these considerations are consistently integrated and applied across all asset classes at BCI.
  • Transitioned the responsibility for managing BCI’s commercial mortgage program to QuadReal Property Group.
  • Completed a multi-year project that resulted in the introduction of a new investment management platform, which increases BCI’s capability to process trades, provides deeper insights into our portfolios, and reduces operational complexity.
  • Implemented a new asset liability management system that allows BCI to strengthen our advice in investment strategy.
  • Recognized as one of Canada’s Top 100 Employers and one of BC’s Top Employers while adding 58 employees, strengthening BCI’s expertise in the areas of portfolio management, asset management, risk management, information technology, and corporate & investor relations.
  • Contributed $75,000 to the Rapid Relief Fund established to provide emergency assistance to those in need in the Greater Victoria area.This was a monetary reflection of the working day that our employees are allowed, but not able during the COVID-19 pandemic, to spend with a local worthy cause. BCI’s executive management team contributed a further $50,000, and BCI employees made individual donations.

KEY FACTS

BCI’s 2019–2020 Corporate Annual Report will be released on August 17, 2020 and will be available on www.bci.ca

About BCI

With $171.3 billion of managed assets, British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (BCI) is a leading provider of investment management services to British Columbia’s public sector. We generate the investment returns that help our institutional clients build financially secure futures. With our global outlook, we seek investment opportunities that convert savings into productive capital that will meet our clients’ risk/return requirements over time. We offer investment options across a range of asset classes: fixed income; public and private equity; infrastructure & renewable resources; real estate, and mortgages.

I've already went over BCI's fiscal year results here and went over some important points you need to keep in mind when looking at BCI's results and comparing them to their large Canadian peers.

But for some reason, this year, BCI delayed the release of its annual report a few weeks after it released its fiscal 2020 results.

Take the time to carefully read BCI's 2019-2020 Corporate Annual Report here. It provides far more detail than the press release a few weeks ago and will give you a much better understanding of BCI's results and operations.

On LinkedIn, BCI states the following:

"Today, we published our 2019-2020 Corporate Annual Report detailing BCI's investment returns across all asset classes for the fiscal year and our corporate activities. This year, BCI proudly marks 20 years of investing globally on behalf of British Columbia's public sector. In recognition of our 20th anniversary, the report includes a timeline of key achievements in our history."

You can view BCI's 20-year timeline below:

 

It's been quite an impressive run, first with Doug Pearce and then with Gordon Fyfe leading the organization.

In terms of a good overview, here are the key charts:

 

As you can see, BCI now manages a little over $170 billion (all figures are CAD) and 80% of those assets are managed in-house, drastically reducing operational costs. 

Over the last 20 years, BCI has added a total of $12.2 in added value, beating its benchmark by 70 basis points (6.5% vs 5.8%). 

In terms of regional exposure, 41% of its total assets are in Canada, 33% in the US, 11% in Europe, 135 in Emerging Markets and 3% in Asia.

This tells you that unlike its large Canadian peers, BCI is still too heavily invested in Canadian public and private markets but that has been changing in recent years, especially after BCI signed a record $7-billion partnership with RBC Global Asset Management which allowed it to sell a 50% stake of its Canadian real estate holdings to other smaller institutional investors while it retained a 50% stake. The proceeds will be used to buy more US, European and Asian commercial real estate.

It takes time to turn around a steam liner and in BCI's case, it's focus has shifted radically in recent years, diversifying away from public markets into private markets and away from domestic assets to international assets.

Now, I took the time to read BCI's annual report carefully. Obviously, I can't cover it all here so let me draw your attention to what caught my eye.

Peter Milburn, Chair of BCI's Board, states the following in his message:

During the year, we focused on crisis management, enterprise risk management, and communication to better understand the measures and protocols BCI had in place in the event of a crisis or natural disaster. In addition to reviewing the framework, we participated with management in a table-top exercise and role-played a crisis. The board also provided input into the approaches BCI would follow to engage with multiple and varied stakeholders during a crisis, recognizing that regular interactions and timely communication are essential.

We also encouraged and supported management’s initiatives to proactively communicate the anticipation of a downturn, despite not knowing the trigger nor the timing. During this COVID -19 period, BCI deliberately increased the amount and frequency of communication with clients, staff, the provincial government, and third parties.The true strength of an organization is demonstrated during adversity. As a board, we fully endorse BCI’s corporate response,communication and stakeholder engagement activity, and investment performance during this challenging time. It is a testament to the level of talent and commitment at BCI and the underlying performance culture.

Well, I am encouraged to see BCI is stepping up its communication game with key stakeholders but as I detailed in a recent comment on pension communication, BCI lags its large Canadian peers when it comes to communication.

In particular, apart from the corporate annual report, there isn't much you can find on its activities throughout the year. Even its website is terrible, you have to go to sitemap all the way at the bottom to find media to find any relevant news items.

To be fair, it's gotten a bit better and there are more postings and LinkedIn posts too but BCI lags way behind its large peers when it comes to regular, timely and relevant content on its operations throughout the year. Its real estate subsidiary, QuadReal, does a much better job communicating its activities. 

Anyway, let me skip to the CEO/CIO's report which begins on page 8 of the annual report.:

 

 

One thing about Gordon, he clearly communicates his thoughts. The thing that struck me from an investment point of view is this passage:

"On a relative basis, most of BCI’s investment strategies beat their benchmark during fiscal 2020, while a very strong 16.2percent performance in private equity lagged its benchmark this year due to unhedged foreign currency exposure in the portfolio, after having outperformed the same benchmark by 15.8 percent last year."

Now, that part confused me a little because BCI's private equity program has 48% of its assets invested in the US and 30% in Europe:

The US dollar was doing very well until April of this year, after BCI's fiscal year ended at the end of March. The Canadian dollar started strengthening a lot after April, so I was surprised that unhedged foreign currency exposure was why Private Equity lagged its benchmark.

Still, as shown above, over the last five years, Private Equity has handily beat its benchmark and that's because Jim Pittman came to BCI and started ramping up co-investments with BCI's PE partners to reduce fee drag. 

Importantly, in Private Equity,the ratio of direct investments to total private equity assets under management increased to 38% compared to 32% in fiscal 2019.

I expect this ratio will continue to increase until the fund investment/ co-investment program fully matures and half of it or more will be co-investments.

One thing I didn't read in BCI's annual report was a full discussion on private market benchmarks. 

Whenever I see a PE benchmark returning 16.9% on any given calendar or fiscal year, I find it ridiculously hard to beat.

And keep in mind, during the fiscal year, BCI's PE team completed 10 private equity fund sales for total proceeds of $800 million. So distributions were there to help them lock in those extraordinary gains or else they would have really lagged their PE benchmark by a wide mark.

Apart from Private Equity, I read on BCI's real estate portfolio:

As you can see, QuadReal is doing a great job managing BCI's massive real estate portfolio and in terms of sectors, it is well diversified among office, residential, industrial and retail.

On a one-year basis, real estate delivered an annualized return of 8.51%, outperforming the 2019 transitional benchmark of 6.72%.

The key passage explaining this performance was this:

The portfolio increased to $25.5 billion from $24.3 billion the year previous. Domestic and international assets accounted for $16.8 billion and $8.7 billion, respectively. Growth in Canada was driven by robust capital appreciation in industrial and residential sectors. However, the portfolio’s largest increases were attributable to the Americas and Europe, owing to strong capital growth and continued capitalization rate compression in U.S. industrial and residential real estate,and European office and residential. For the year ended December 31, 2019, QuadReal committed $2.5 billion to the global program. Commitments included $2.4 billion in direct investments, and $142 million in fund investments. QuadReal’s portfolio allocation has shifted to 34.0 per cent invested outside of Canada, compared to 28.4 per cent the year previous. The objective is to achieve a 50/50 balance between domestic and international by 2023.

Surprisingly, QuadReal didn't use the pandemic to take significant writedowns in its Retail portfolio like the Caisse's Ivanhoe Cambridge and other large pensions did. 

I don't know if that will change next year but it did catch my attention. 

Anyway, take the time to read BCI's entire annual report here, it is very well written and informative.

In terms of future communication, I'd like to see more YouTube clips featuring Gordon Fyfe, Jim Pittman, Stefan Dunatov, Daniel Garant, and others and a lot more articles discussing BCI's activities during the fiscal year.

Lastly, you can see executive compensation below:

I think it's very important to read the full discussion on compensation and analysis which starts on page 49 and to remember these figures are in line with BCI's peer group in the rest of Canada. 

More interestingly, I went through B.C.'s famous public sector salary database which hasn't been updated yet and saw that almost all the top public sector salaries are concentrated at BCI.

Again, no surprise to me, public pensions in Canada are run like huge conglomerates, effectively like a business where long-term results have to be there to justify compensation.

People reading this database and wondering why there's a wide discrepancy between compensation at BCI and say BC Hydro or some other organization are completely clueless thinking these are civil servants working at BCI. They're not, if they don't perform, they're fired and out of a job and it's the finance sector where industry compensation is very competitive, so that explains the why BCI dominates this very public database.

Also worth noting that Canada's large public pensions are the best in the world, which is good news for Canadians in the public sector, not so much for those in the private sector who don't have access to a well-governed defined benefit plan. 

Below, Bob Doll, Nuveen chief equity strategist, joins"Closing Bell" to discuss what has carried the market higher and what he's watching for now.

The World’s Best Pensions Are Canadian

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 Christine Idzelis of Institutional Investor reports the world's best pension funds are Canadian:

Canada’s pension funds are beating peers globally in investment performance and are stronger at hedging against liability risks, according to research from McGill University and CEM Benchmarking. 

Their success is partly explained by the fact they are more likely to manage their assets in-house, McGill researchers Sebastien Betermier and Quentin Spehner, along with CEM’s Alexander Beath and Chris Flynn, wrote in a July paper. The authors’ findings are based on a study of pensions, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds globally between 2004 and 2018. 

Large Canadian funds in particular outperformed in all measures of the study, which analyzed returns, asset allocation strategies, and cost structures. The authors defined large funds as those managing more than $10 billion in assets in 2018.

“Not only did they generate greater returns for each unit of volatility risk, but they also did a superior job hedging their pension liability risks,” the authors wrote. “The ability to deliver both high return performance and insurance against liability risks is notable because hedging is typically perceived as a cost.”

While the Canadian model has yet to be fully tested by the Covid-19 pandemic, the researchers said the strong performance of the country’s pension plans over the past decades kept them well-funded even as they faced the challenge of falling interest rates and rising life expectancy. U.S. corporate funds, meanwhile, are relatively expensive to run as they outsource a majority of their investments, according to the paper.

On average, Canadian pensions manage 52 percent of their assets in-house, compared with 23 percent for funds outside the country, the McGill and CEM researchers found. The gap was even wider for very large funds overseeing more than $50 billion of assets, with Canadian pensions managing 80 percent internally versus 34 percent for their global peers.

“We estimate that, by managing a high proportion of their assets in-house, Canadian funds reduce costs by approximately one third,” the researchers said. “Moving the investment team in-house requires independent corporate governance and competitive compensation schemes to attract and retain talent.” 

Another distinctive feature of large Canadian funds is the “re-deployment of resources to investment teams for each asset class,” according to the paper. While spending less on external managers, Canada’s funds outspend peers on their internally-managed portfolios, the researchers found.

“These patterns hold true within each asset class and style,” they said. “Examples of expenses include risk management units and IT infrastructure where Canadian funds spend more than their peers by a factor of 5.”

Large funds in Canada also stand out for allocating capital to assets that increase the efficiency of their portfolios and hedge against liability risks, according to the researchers. They pointed to commodity-producer stocks, real estate, and infrastructure, saying the savings reaped from in-house asset management allows the funds to invest more in real assets. Although real assets tend to be more expensive to manage than stocks and bonds, Canadian funds allocate 18 percent of their portfolios to this area — or double the allocation of their global peers, according to the paper.

In another distinction, the researchers said large Canadian pensions index their liabilities, making it easier “to hedge against their liability risks by owning a diversified mix of growth assets.”

A high proportion of their pension liabilities is indexed to inflation, driving strong asset-liability performance, according to the paper. “Indexed liabilities tend to correlate more with growth assets than nominal liabilities,” setting the funds up to invest in growth assets that strengthen both return performance and liability hedging, the authors explained.

Adopting the Canadian model could pay off in the U.S., the researchers found. 

In doing so, U.S. public funds would have seen a 15 percent absolute increase in the 15-year Sharpe ratio of their asset portfolios, a 13 percent rise in the 15-year Sharpe ratio of the asset-liability portfolio, and a 20 percent increase in the correlation between assets and liabilities, according to the paper. “These estimates do not include any additional performance resulting from the Canadian funds’ decision to spend more in each asset class,” the researchers said. 

Their back-testing similarly found that corporate funds in the U.S. would benefit from Canada’s approach to pension investing. 

“For U.S. corporate funds, which already hedge a high proportion of their liability risks, the adoption of the Canadian model would have also led to increases in all performance metrics,” the authors wrote, “but mostly in the Sharpe ratios through the reduction of costs associated with in-house management.” 

Take the time to read this academic paper here, it's very well researched and well written. 

This article came out a couple of weeks ago right when I took some time off blogging, but I posted in on LinkedIn and it was read by over 11,000 people and received 94 likes, mostly from employees at Canadian pensions. 

I must admit, this research paper was long overdue, but I can't say the findings surprised me. 

I've long known Canadian pensions are the best in the world based on some very simple principles:

  1. They got the governance right. They are run like businesses with independent boards and have zero or extremely limited government interference (none whatsoever in their day-to-day operations). This ensures the pensions are run solely in the best interests of their contributors and beneficiaries.
  2. They got the compensation right. Canadian pensions pay their employees very competitive compensation based on long-term returns (four or five year annualized returns over benchmark). This allows them to internalize asset management across public and private markets, significantly lowering costs which explains long-term outperformance. The article above is right, Canada's large pensions manage roughly 80% of their assets in-house as opposed to farming them out to asset managers and getting clobbered on fees (which add up fast and detract from long-term performance, the same way mutual fund fees in Canada can eat away up to a third of your RRSP gains over a 30-year period).
  3. They got the risk-sharing right. Canada's pension plans, especially the large successful ones which manage assets and liabilities, are jointly-sponsored plans where public-sector employees and provincial governments contribute an equal amount to the plan and have an equal say. Moreover, the risk of the plan is shared equally among retired and active members. Typically this happens through conditional inflation protection where indexation is partially or fully removed for a period when the plan is underfunded and restored retroactively once the plan achieves fully funded status again. Conditional inflation protection is an important lever to maintain fully funded status especially for mature plans where the ratio of retired to active members is 1 to 1 or higher. This effectively ensures inter-generational equity and it's much easier for retired members to temporarily shoulder a small reduction in benefits for a period as opposed to drastically increase the contributions for active members.

These are the main factors behind the long-term success of Canada's top pensions. 

Here, I will focus on the top pensions because they are the ones which set the bar for other Canadian pensions and even global peers.

Now, getting back to the academic study, it clearly states the following in the introduction: 

"We first examine the large funds and show that, between 2004and 2018, Canadian funds outperformed their peers on all fronts. Not only did they generate greater returns for each unit of volatility risk, but they also did a superior job hedging their pension liability risks. The ability to deliver both high return performance and insurance against liability risks is notable because hedging is typically perceived as a cost. Our results are in line with Ambachtsheer (2017a, 2017b) who finds that Canadian funds outperformed non-Canadian funds on a risk-adjusted basis from 2006 to 2015."

A couple of comments here which are critically important. First, since 2006, Canada's large pensions have diversified away from Canada to buy more public equities in the US, Europe, Asia and emerging markets.

Second and more importantly, since 2006, there has been a concerted effort to diversify away from public equities into private market assets all over the world. These include private equities, real estate, infrastructure, natural resources and private debt which is a hot asset class lately as the world goes ZIRP.

There were particularly sizable and important shifts into real estate and infrastructure assets all over the world and this is important because these asserts have a very long investment horizon and are a better match for their long-dated liabilities (which typically go out 75+ years).

Canada's large pensions also use leverage very judiciously and intelligently to take advantage of opportunities across public and private markets when they arise. In fact, many rightly argue that leverage is a cornerstone of the Canada model (it's not but it is an important factor).

But I would argue the main reason Canada's large pensions have delivered superior risk-adjusted returns from 2006 onward is because of the proportion of their assets in private markets.

The diagram below was taken from CPP Investments' fiscal 2020 highlights:

As shown, 21% of assets are now in Emerging Markets and 79% in Developed Markets.

More importantly, 25% of the total assets are in Private Equity, 11% in Real Estate and 9% in Infrastructure. Add Other Real Assets (4%) and Private Debt which is part of the 12% allocation to Credit and you easily have over 50% of total assets in private markets.

Now, by their very nature, private markets aren't marked to market, so they aren't as volatile as stocks and bonds which explains the better risk-adjusted returns as they are marked once or twice a year. 

But critically important is private markets tend to outperform stocks when the market is getting hit (because they aren't marked to market) and they offer important inefficiencies which aren't available in public markets, inefficiencies which the partners of these large pensions exploit.

What this means is large Canadian pensions tend to underperform their benchmark when public equities are in a roaring bull market and outperform during bear markets.

And over the long run, this adds up, which is why Canada's large pensions have outperformed their global peers over the long run, especially on a risk-adjusted basis.

This all begs the question, if Canada has the world's best pensions, why doesn't Canada have the world's best pension system?

The answer, my dear readers, is simple, only the few lucky employees in Canada's public sector get gold-plated defined-benefit plans, the rest of the schmucks in the private sector get to invest in crappy, high fee mutual funds the big banks are peddling to unsuspecting clients.

In other words, unlike The Netherlands, Denmark, Australia and Sweden, all of which have great pensions too, our coverage is woefully inadequate here and even though this is changing ever so slowly, it represents the biggest obstacle as to why Canada doesn't have the world's best pension system.  

Now, the article at the top of this post also states that the researchers found adopting the Canadian model could pay off in the US.

Interestingly, Clive Lipshitz and Ingo Walter recently wrote an article for Institutional Investor stating America’s public pension challenges can be Fixed and Canada is proof:

There are about 5,300 public pension funds in the U.S. today, overseeing some $4 trillion in assets. The 25 largest account for more than half the total. The rest of the market is highly fragmented, with thousands of public pension portfolios managed independently and locally. Fragmentation results in less efficient portfolios and higher operating costs, potentially leading to lower net returns and ultimately a greater funding burden on taxpayers. Especially given the impact of Covid-19 on public finances, there must be a better way.

In a comparative study of the largest U.S. and Canadian public pension plans, we explored pension reform in Canada in the late 1980s and 1990s. Prior to those reforms, Canadian policymakers worried about the integrity of the country’s public pension system. Decades later, the system is considered among the best in the world. Our data show that on almost all metrics the Canadians outperform their U.S. peers, so the Canadian experience offers some useful lessons for reforming the American public pension system.

One of the key lessons is that scale matters, and there are ways to achieve scale even for smaller pension funds through the pooling of assets. We call this the consortium model of pension system design.

Larger pension pools allow for staffing investment teams that exceed critical mass and for designing and developing portfolios that are diversified across asset classes and markets. Significant market footprint also helps pension managers effectively engage with asset managers to obtain access to co-investments and reduced fees for larger fund commitments. 

On the other hand, we know that scale tends to dissipate at extreme size. Some institutional investors are so large that they cannot make allocations to higher-performing strategies that move the needle in the portfolio, while concentrated positions might move prices against them. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund and Japan’s government pension fund are well known examples.

But there is a sweet spot – perhaps between $50 billion and $250 billion in AUM. In the U.S., about twenty public pension funds cross the lower threshold; in Canada, a handful do. The California Public Employees’ Retirement System and Canada Pension Plan exceed the upper bound.

Another feature of the Canadian public pension system is in-house investment management. This originated in Québec and became prevalent in Ontario in the 1990s. Over the years, the Toronto-based pension funds have become among the most sophisticated in the world. When Canada’s smaller provinces and its federal pension system underwent reform, they adopted key lessons from Ontario. Along the way, they developed the consortium model, one that also prevails in some European markets.

Formed as units of Canadian federal and provincial finance departments, investment organizations managing combined portfolios of pension plans and other government assets came into being. These include the British Columbia Investment Management Corporation, Public Sector Pension Investment Board, and Alberta Investment Management Corporation. More recently, the Investment Management Corporation of Ontario was formed for the purpose of serving smaller Ontario pension plans, while CAAT Pension evolved from serving Ontario colleges to serve smaller pension funds across the country. Preceding all of these was Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec. Other than CAAT, each is a public sector entity operating at arms-length from government and overseen by representatives of its largest clients. The model continues to evolve, and has recently been considered in Manitoba.

Might the consortium model be adopted in the United States? To some degree, it already has been. The Massachusetts Pension Reserves Investment Management Board is an investment office for the entire Commonwealth. Pennsylvania and Illinois are considering similar approaches.

We believe the consortium model is well worth wider consideration. There are hundreds of mid-size and thousands of small U.S. public pension plans. Investing the portfolios of each of these independently is inefficient.

How might such entities be structured? States – or groups of smaller states – could establish investment units to manage the portfolios of consortia of pension plans. These would operate at arms-length from government, while being held to fiduciary standards set by their clients. Smaller pension funds might pool assets and establish mutually owned cooperatives to invest on their behalf. They might even collectively engage investment management firms using the scale of their aggregate AUM. Full customization would be traded for greater portfolio diversification, access to otherwise inaccessible strategies, and better control over expenses.

State and local governments are searching for innovative ideas to fortify their finances given the impact of Covid-19. The consortium model is attractive because it enhances market efficiency. The Canadian examples provide good case studies.

I had a chance to chat with Clive Lipshitz during my break and think his paper which he co-authored with Ingo Walter is important.

One thing that struck me in our conversation, public sector employees in the US don't contribute as much to their plan as the ones in Canada and Clive suggested this is because of powerful public sector unions down south. This is a glaring structural problem that needs to be addressed.

But I didn't agree with everything he stated. For example, I don't buy that "sweet spot" argument of AUM where pensions managing $50 billion to $250 billion outperform the rest.

In fact, CPP Investments which now manages well north of $400 billion CAD is in my opinion the best pension fund in Canada and size hasn't detracted from its long-term performance.

What else? I truly believe there are powerful interests in the US which don't want to see the Canadian model adopted down south. Why? Because public pensions represent an important cash cow for them, a perpetual source of funding. They don't want to see major reforms to public pensions which jeopardize that source of perpetual financing. 

Lastly, Martha Porado of Benefits Canada  wrote a great article on how Canada's DB pensions have changed over the last ten years:

Whether it’s battling the challenges of plan maturity, increasing longevity, the changing nature of work or difficult financial markets, these so-called golden handcuffs are looking pretty dented in some cases.

But the 10 years following the great financial crisis wasn’t all bad. Many public pension plans, as well as affiliated administrators and investment managers, have been busy making their organizations more efficient and effective, driven by the fundamental belief that providing the guarantee of a retirement income is worth the effort.

“I think it’s always important to come back to why are we doing this, what makes a DB plan so important to the people — in our case, in Ontario — and also to the economy?” says Annesley Wallace, chief pension officer at the Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System.

Come together

While pension organizations are taking varied approaches to boost their long-term viability, growth through consolidation was a common theme throughout the 2010s.

For example, after years of discussion, Queen’s University, the University of Guelph and the University of Toronto formed the University Pension Plan in 2019.

In the same year, major Ontario players like the Colleges of Applied Arts and Technology pension plan and the OPSEU Pension Trust both kicked off new programs to offer DB arrangements to a wide array of employers, introducing DBplus and OPTrust Select, respectively.

While the OMERS isn’t actively searching for new sources of membership growth, it’s also making some consolidations. During the last decade, it folded in four closed City of Toronto plans that had been established before the OMERS existed. “That was a great example of an opportunity for us to do some consolidation where, in some cases, some of those members were even drawing pensions from two different plans because they had an OMERS pension for service [after] the creation of OMERS and then from this other plan,” says Wallace.

The ability to add new plans into the mix is a fundamental part of the design of Saskatchewan’s Public Employees Benefits Agency, says Dave Wild, its associate deputy minister. “We don’t actively go out and seek new business, but we have structured our organization and operated with an eye to being able to add new plans without much disruption, so scalability comes into our design quite a bit. We can add a new plan and it will have its own governance and its own unique benefits structure, investment policies, everything it wants to do by itself. We can add that without being loudly disruptive to our organization.”

Kids these days

The emphasis on consolidation also plays into solutions to the changing nature of work. In 2015, the millennial generation became the largest portion of the Canadian workforce and along with them came a different approach to building a career. “People no longer spend their entire career from graduation to retirement with a single or one or two employers,” says Weldon Cowan, a trustee on British Columbia’s College Pension Board of Trustees.

He suggests that strengthening the presence of multi-employer DB plans in the overall pension landscape could be part of the solution to this trend. “There is an opportunity here to rethink the way DB works in the private sector. It’s difficult for a single employer to support a DB pension plan for just their company. There is a lot of risk with that. There are all sorts of accounting rules that may make it difficult, so the plans within the private sector need to modernize, look at moving to multi-employer plans or sector-wide plans where different companies could work together, potentially move their plans to joint-trusteeship, because it really changes the nature of how the plan is administered.”

And as multi-employer plans grow, so does the likelihood that plan members will change employers and still end up covered by their previous plan, says Derek Dobson, the CAAT’s chief executive officer and plan manager. The CAAT, in particular, has made special efforts to help members stay put. “We have 76 employers in the plan and sometimes people move between contracts for six months, so they’re out of work for six months. Rather than force them [to choose], ‘Do I take a commuted value? Do I take a deferred pension?’ we leveraged the [Pension Benefits Act] rules; we have an extension of membership so members don’t have to do anything for two full years and if they find another job with any of those 76 employers, they have time to think about it. Because when you lose your job, it’s probably not the right time to be making a decision of, ‘Do I want to manage my money forever or do I want to leave it with CAAT?’”

Grandparents these days

But for plan members closer to retirement, pension plans have to take longer life expectancies into account and that’s caused some sponsors to make some design changes, says Cowan. “Over the last decade, the plans have modernized themselves, changed their plan design to address shifts that have occurred in life expectancy, in employment patterns, peoples’ choices about retirement age. Essentially, if you would have looked at the plan designs 10 years ago, they were effectively the plan designs created in the 1960s with the rise of the [Canada Pension Plan], with some public policy elements baked in, like supporting early retirement, with strong early retirement incentives integrating with the CPP.”

In 2016, the B.C. College Pension Plan was the first of the province’s public plans to de-integrate from the CPP, establishing a flat accrual rate and significantly reducing early retirement incentives to make the early retirement reduction factors more actuarially correct, he says. The B.C. Teachers’ Pension Plan and the B.C. Public Service Pension Plan followed soon after. While early retirement becomes the goal for fewer and fewer plan members, moving away from incentives to do so also makes the plan more affordable, adds Cowan.

Saw it on the ‘gram

At the beginning of the 2010s, social media was just beginning its meteoric rise in popularity. Instagram started the decade with 15 million active users and ended it with more than a billion, half of whom use the app daily. And while the average influencer isn’t raving to followers about their pension contribution rate, effective digital communication is all about getting a message in front of its intended audience.

“We’ve started to communicate more via social media channels,” says Wallace. “We’re on Facebook and LinkedIn and, in the last six months, we launched Instagram because we have almost 100,000 members between the ages of 19 and 36 and we want to be where they are. So our Instagram account really showcases the people of OMERS, including our members and our employees.”

The prevalence of digital communications also makes it easier for pension plans to contact members who may otherwise fall through the cracks and become unreachable, she notes. And, while the OMERS doesn’t have email addresses for all of its 500,000 members, it’s aiming to close the gap. “That’s a big effort for us, trying to fill in those missing pieces so all members are able to elect to receive electronic communications. We currently have about 135,000 members who’ve elected to go paperless, which is great and we would like to see that number go even higher if we could.”

The OMERS’ members can also be more autonomous in their retirement by using digital tools. “They can now go into the member portal and actually see updates through the transaction process as opposed to having to call in and say, ‘Can someone check on the status of my transaction?’” says Wallace.

Enabling and emphasizing this type of self-service for plan members has to go hand in hand with efforts to ensure they’re able to make informed decisions, says Wild. Whether it’s providing direct information, tools or access to financial counselling, the PEBA’s aim is to reach a higher level of engagement.

“We’ve had, for several years, certified financial planners as part of our service offering. We have them on staff to do that education and counselling for our plan members. So that’s been a real drive over the last decade to put members in a better position to understand their plan and to make good decisions.”

Continuity and coronavirus

The digitization of the communication process over the last 10 years has also helped pension plans continue their normal, daily operations in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, says Cowan. “The [B.C. Pension Corp.] has roughly 400 employees. They’ve been able to get over 350 employees to work from home and continue doing their job in a secure fashion, which means much fewer employees are having to go to the worksite.”

That digitization also means employees who planned to retire in 2020 can still do so without interruption, he adds. “That would have been impossible if this event had occurred nine years ago. Everything would have ground to a halt. So it’s been a very smart move; this has been an excellent test of whether we can cope with a crisis.”

Wallace agrees, noting the implementation of tools like secure messaging just happened to coincide with a crisis where the tools became critical to business continuity. “The emphasis we’ve placed over the last two years on digital transformation and some of the things we’ve implemented like secure messaging, we never would have appreciated at the time, but we now realize how important all of those things actually are to our being able to continue to deliver service.

“We’ve seen some of the highest sign-up rates for our webinars over the last couple of days just around people interested in getting more information and likely having the time to do that. So I think we’re fortunate from an administration perspective that we are able to continue to operate and ensure that every pensioner is getting their pension cheque every month and that we are processing all of the other types of transactions that we would do on a regular basis.”

A crisis like the coronavirus pandemic emphasizes the need for pension committees and boards to always be looking around the corner for the next problem, says Joseph De Dominicis, senior vice-president for group retirement solutions at People Corp. He recalls one plan he worked with that periodically bought annuities to cover off the inactive portfolios of its member population whenever the opportunity arose.

“They were able to go back to the board every year and say, ‘Look, we know all of our competitors have gone [defined contribution]. We believe in DB and here are the steps we’ve taken to make sure it never becomes a driver of our business decisions.’ And they did that by removing liabilities from the balance sheet at opportune times; when they had the funding available and when the annuity market was primed for purchase. And I thought that was a very astute strategy.”

The temptation for DB plans to take advantage of achieving a funding surplus — by taking a contribution holiday, for instance — is very real, he says. “And then, invariably, you get a shock like we have now and all that goes away.”

Adapt or die

A decade ago, the last major financial crisis shook some pension plans into realizing they needed to regroup and revaluate whether their current systems could survive market shakeups.

New Brunswick took on this challenge by becoming the first province to allow a target-benefit or shared-risk approach, says John Sinclair, president and chief executive officer of Vestcor Corp. “I think it was helpful to be able to focus on the specific missions of these various target-benefit plans that we provide services for with unique opportunities as well. And when we find ourselves in an uncertain or volatile period, my expectation is these plans will hold up a lot better — first of all, from a more risk averse investment policy, but also having the ability, if needed in the future, to potentially have to defer indexing for short periods of time. Having that flexibility certainly is more helpful for the long-term sustainability of the pension plan.”

For some, the current crisis feels like an echo of the last historic market downturn, says Chris Brown, president and chief executive officer of Alberta’s Local Authorities Pension Plan Corp. But plans that shelter members from a number of sources are all the more significant in their ability to maintain their promises to pensioners in hard times, he adds.

“The pandemic and the resulting economic crisis really has the potential to be a tragedy that will almost undoubtedly bring on hard times for a great number of people. Plans like ours and others in the country, we have this Canadian model that is so well-respected around the world. And we have an opportunity, and perhaps even an obligation, to look at what we can do to help people who aren’t in our plans.”

You can download a PDF file of the 2020 Top 100 Pension Funds Report here.

The purpose of this post was to give you a glimpse as to why Canada has the world's best pensions.

What else does Canada have? The world's best pension blogger, someone who works tirelessly to bring you the most up-to-date and relevant content on pensions and investments.

Let me remind all of you that this blog runs on donations, is fully transparent, fair and balanced and relies on the generosity of supporters who take the time to donate via PayPal on the top left-hand side under my picture. Just because it's free, it doesn't mean you can't show your appreciation. 

I sincerely thank all of you who take the time to donate to support my efforts.

Below, Mark Machin, President and CEO of CPP Investments, discusses who invests in the Canada Pension Plan, why CPP Investments was created and a lot more (see all clips on CPP Investments' YouTube channel here). Watch these clips and you'll understand why Canada has the word's best pensions.

Update: Bernard Dussault, Canada's former (former) Chief Actuary, shared his general thoughts with me after reading this post:

I think that Canada has the best in the world public pension system because although there is more coverage under the Netherlands, Denmark, Australia and Sweden programs, none of these is as well financed at the Canadian system. 

And anyway I find that the level of the Canadian coverage is just OK.

I thank Bernard for sharing his thoughts and he's right, our pension system is much better financed than anywhere in the world.


Big Trouble at CalPERS?

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Mary Williams Marsh of the New York Times reports that after CalPERS CIO's abrupt departure, the trustees are talking about the next steps:

Trustees of CalPERS, the country’s biggest public pension fund, met on Monday to discuss next steps after the sudden resignation this month of the fund’s chief investment officer, Ben Meng.

Mr. Meng joined CalPERS, as the $410 billion California Public Employees’ Retirement System is known, in January 2019 and had produced good results in a tough market, said Henry Jones, president of the fund’s board. But he left abruptly on Aug. 5, a day after an anonymous complaint was filed with California’s Fair Political Practices Commission about possible conflicts of interest involving Mr. Meng’s personal investments.

Although the complaint did not list any specific investments, the five-member commission’s review has focused on Mr. Meng’s ownership of shares in the Blackstone Group, a publicly traded investment firm. CalPERS, which has invested in Blackstone’s private-equity funds before, committed $750 million to such a fund after Mr. Meng was hired. He had disclosed that he owned a stake in Blackstone shortly after joining CalPERS, using the standard form that state officials use when disclosing their investments. His stake was between $10,000 and $100,000, according to the form.

Mr. Meng had worked on Wall Street and at CalPERS earlier. Most recently, he was the deputy investment chief of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, a Chinese agency in charge of the country’s foreign reserves. Mr. Meng was born in China but is a citizen of the United States.

In a statement posted by CalPERS announcing his resignation, Mr. Meng said he was proud of the changes he had helped bring about at the fund, “but at this time, it’s important for me to focus on my health and on my family and move on to the next chapter in my life.”

Mr. Meng could not be reached for comment.

With tensions between the United States and China deteriorating in recent months. Representative Jim Banks, Republican of Indiana, had raised concerns about Mr. Meng’s ties to China, including on Twitter. But the concerns he highlighted don’t appear to be what the California commission is investigating.

As of now, there is no evidence that Mr. Meng made investment decisions for CalPERS that were designed to benefit his own holdings. Last Tuesday, he received, through his lawyer, a letter from the commission saying it intended to investigate the anonymous complaint but had “not yet made any determination about the validity of the allegation(s).”

CalPERS said in a statement after the resignation that it had been aware of questions regarding Mr. Meng’s personal investments, but considered them “private personnel matters” that “already have been addressed according to our internal compliance protocols.”

Mr. Jones, the board president, said in a statement that Mr. Meng had overseen a 12-month investment return of 4.7 percent as of June 30, “during the most volatile market conditions in our country’s history.” That was better than the CalPERS target of 4.3 percent at the time, he said.

CalPERS’s deputy chief investment officer, Dan Bienvenue, is serving as the interim investment chief while trustees search for a successor. Their discussions on Monday were held in a closed-door session.

“We are committed to strong compliance protocols,” Marcie Frost, the chief executive of CalPERS, said in a statement on Monday. “At next month’s meeting, we will bring to the board specific policy options for their considerations.”

CalPERS is sensitive to even the appearance of conflicts of interest, given its visibility and outsize role in the economic life of California, its cities and its taxpayers. For the past two decades, the fund has operated with far less money invested than it will need to cover all the benefits it must pay. Taxes around the state have gone up as CalPERS has billed local governments for larger and larger mandatory annual contributions.

Andrew Sheeler of The Sacramento Bee also reports that the California ethics agency is opening an investigation into the former CalPERS investment chief: 

The California agency that enforces state political conflict of interest laws confirmed it is opening an investigation into two complaints regarding former CalPERS Chief Investment Office Yu Ben Meng.

The Fair Political Practices Commission announced its review in an Aug. 11 letter to Meng’s attorney that the agency released to The Sacramento Bee on Monday.

Also Monday, State Controller Betty Yee reiterated her request for the California Public Employees’ Retirement System to launch its own “swift and thorough” inquiry into Meng.

She spoke at a special CalPERS Board of Administration meeting that primarily took place in a closed session outside of public review. She and CalPERS Board of Administration member Margaret Brown urged their colleagues to broaden a discussion about the investment chief.

CalPERS Chief Executive Officer Marcie Frost said the pension fund is preparing policy options for the board to consider next month. 

“We will always do everything we can to be transparent and accountable in our mission to deliver retirement security to California’s public employees,” she said.

Meng resigned abruptly on Aug. 5 after being on the job overseeing the pension fund’s $412 billion investment portfolio for less than two years.

His departure followed an anonymous complaint to the state ethics agency that Meng had approved a $1 billion deal with Blackstone Group Inc., a New York-based financial firm in which Meng was a shareholder.

According to Meng’s conflict-of-interest disclosure, he held as much as $100,000 in Blackstone stock.

The FPPC received a second complaint regarding Meng the day after his resignation. It cited a news article about his exit from the fund, according to the letter to Meng’s attorney.

Meng’s resignation statement said that he needed to “focus on my health and on my family and move on to the next chapter in my life.”

Meng worked at CalPERS from 2008 to 2015 before leaving to become deputy chief investment officer for China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange. He returned when CalPERS hired him as chief investment officer.

So Ben Meng resigned from CalPERS on August 5th when I was off from my blogging duties.

CalPERS put out an official statement that day: 

CalPERS announced today that Chief Investment Officer Yu (Ben) Meng is resigning, effective August 5.

Dan Bienvenue, deputy chief investment officer, will serve as interim chief investment officer. CalPERS will start an immediate search for a permanent successor.

Meng has been CalPERS’ chief investment officer since January 2019. Under his leadership, CalPERS recently announced a fiscal year 2019-20 return of 4.7%, beating its benchmark of 4.3% during a time of extreme financial market volatility sparked by the coronavirus pandemic.

“I deeply believe in the CalPERS mission of serving those who serve California,” Meng said. “I’m proud of the work we did to change the portfolio, build a skilled Investment Office, and set CalPERS on a strong path to achieve our return target. But at this time, it’s important for me to focus on my health and on my family and move on to the next chapter in my life.”

The day after, on August 6, CalPERS put out a statement from Board president Henry Jones on the CIO's resignation:

Yu (Ben) Meng played an important role helping to reshape CalPERS’ Investment Office, build a strong team, and prepare the fund for the future. We respect Ben’s decision to resign and wish him well as he focuses on his health, his family, and moves on to the next chapter in his life.

CalPERS achieved a 4.7% return in fiscal year 2019-20 during the most volatile market conditions in our country’s history. This is a testament to the dedication of our team and the strength of our plan. We beat our benchmark of 4.3%, and the Wall Street Journal has reported that public pension funds returned an average of 3.2%. This significant achievement is the result of a great team effort.

CalPERS has known about questions regarding Ben’s Fair Political Practices disclosure filings. These are private personnel matters and already have been addressed according to our internal compliance protocols.

CalPERS is moving forward and recruiting a new chief investment officer. A board meeting has been scheduled for August 17 to discuss personnel matters. In the meantime, our organization remains focused on providing retirement security to members and supporting our employer partners.

Now, I was surprised to learn Ben Meng resigned because of questions linked to his financial disclosure.

Recall, in late June, I spoke with Ben for an hour in a webcast and blogged about it here.

I've always been an ardent supporter of Ben, think very highly of him, and this disclosure gaffe, while clearly violating CalPERS's compliance rules, changes nothing in terms of what I think of the man.

Importantly, let me be clear, CalPERS just lost a great CIO, and while he will be replaced, the organization is reeling and the new CIO will start from scratch trying to implement much needed changes which Ben was trying to implement.

This isn't good for CalPERS, its management team, its employees and more importantly, its contributors and beneficiaries.

Did Ben Meng screw up? Absolutely, no two ways about it, if you're the CIO of a major pension fund or an employee of a major pension fund, you have to follow the tight compliance rules and not buy or sell stocks when they are on a restricted list. That's just basic common sense.

But do I think Ben Meng should have resigned over this alleged non-disclosure? No, I would have handled the situation in an entirely different but totally transparent way. I would have fined him and asked him to publicly apologize but certainly not demand his resignation. 

The problem is CalPERS is such a politicized shop that if you so much as sneeze the wrong way, reporters and government politicians and bureaucrats will be all over you.

It's completely and utterly ridiculous which is one reason why large US public pensions will always lag their Canadian counterparts.

Don't get me wrong, rules are rules, they're there for a reason and everyone must follow them, but it's the political charade I can't stand and all these holier than thou bloggers like Yves Smith at naked capitalism who keeps harping at CalPERS the same way some religious zealot harps on the word of God.

I honestly can't stand sanctimonious nonsense from Yves Smith (aka Susan Webber) or CalPERS's board members who think there is something very sinister that is going on.

There isn't, and unless the FBI opens a criminal investigation into Ben Meng's dealings which I don't see happening, I suggest everyone refrains from making wild accusations.

What else? Let this be a lesson to all you CIOs and pension employees, invest in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), the Nasdaq ETF (QQQ) or some balanced fund ETF (AOM, AOK, AOA or VBAL.TO) and don't risk getting embroiled in some silly non disclosure over a stock purchase.

[Note: There are now more ETFs than stocks but do your due diligence and make sure you know what you're buying, look at liquidity, top holdings, etc. and in my opinion, you're better off sticking with SPY instead of trying to pick stocks.] 

As far as Ben Meng, I wish him well, part of me thinks he will be better off very far away from CalPERS and all the political nonsense in Sacramento. He deserved a lot better treatment than this.

As far as CalPERS, it's time to move on, pick a solid CIO who will be able to lead the investment team and navigate all this political nonsense going on in California. It's not easy but try to find someone like Chris Ailman at CalSTRS and make sure the next CIO is going to be there for a minimum of five years, if not ten (you need two terms to make a difference!!).

Are there people I think can do a great job as CIO of CalPERS? You bet but I doubt they're willing to deal with the political nonsense and ridiculous scrutiny that comes with the job.

That's the CalPERS curse, a very bad curse if you ask my opinion, until they address it head on, it will weigh on the organization and detract from long-term performance.

I hope I'm wrong but Ive been around long enough to know the real deal at CalPERS and other large US public pensions. There's simply way too much political interference and it often deteriorates into a circus show whenever something bad arises. 

Like I stated above, this issue could have been handled in an entirely different way but the political hacks and vengeful bloggers screamed for blood and they got it.

Below, Ben Meng introduces Greg Ruiz, Head of PE at CalPERS, and Mario Giannini, CEO of Hamilton Lane to discuss lessons from private equity over the last three decades. This discussion took place in July before the storm hit.


OMERS Leadership Under Fire

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Satish Rai, Chief Investment Officer at OMERS, recently spoke to Oxford Properties’ President Michael Turner about his experience leading the company through the COVID crisis. With properties and investments across the globe, how has the ever-changing nature of the pandemic affected his approach to leadership? Here’s what he had to say:

Michael, what were some of the biggest challenges Oxford faced in the early days of the pandemic?

 There were many challenges, and there continue to be, but early on there were two main challenges for Oxford. First, the speed with which everything was changing and the breadth and scope of that change. We have business continuity plans to manage our 69 offices, we have emergency preparedness plans to manage our nearly 400 assets and we’ve dealt with all kind of emergencies. But, we’ve never dealt with the pace and breadth of this confluence of events happening all at once. It was very chaotic.

Second was the challenge of working in different parts of the word that were at different stages of the virus, which really meant it was difficult to provide a consistent message to our employees and partners as to how we were going to move forward.

As a global business, this last point is particularly challenging. How were you impacted by the fact that different geographies in which you operate were hit by the virus much later than others?

There was contradiction everywhere. We had some governments saying we are going to carry on and everything will be business as usual, then you had jurisdictions where governments were deciding to shut down.

On the same day, I had politicians calling me to say “You need to close. It’s irresponsible” while in the same jurisdiction politicians were telling us “You must remain open. You’re a critical infrastructure.” So that was a very demanding period on all of us personally and on our teams and it was very intense because it had such a human dimension to it. In some cases, we were requiring people to work, and in others we were telling them to. We made some mistakes along the way, but you make the best decisions you can in the time you have, and with the information you have. The one thing that was consistent everywhere at all times was our focus on the health and well-being of our customers, colleagues and communities.

Beyond ongoing changes to health protocols, how did government guidelines alter the way you ran the business day-to-day?

There were numerous changes, some of which seem simple enough to work through but actually require a tremendous amount of back-end work, which adds to the confusion. For example, the City of Toronto advised businesses in mid-March that their April 1 taxes due and payable for the next six months of the year didn’t have to be paid. It was a great initiative to provide relief to businesses impacted by the shutdown.

Well, that may sound like an easy thing to manage, but when you have thousands of tenants with electronic banking set up to automatically going to remit those funds, it’s an enormous task to manage. 

Over a period of weeks, we had upwards of 100 different policy directives from jurisdictions around the world that we had to manage. And on top of that volume we had over 2,000 requests from our occupants to restructure terms of existing contracts. All of this takes a tremendous amount of time and resources. So as a leader you are trying to find ways to adapt your approach and mobilize your teams to work as quickly and creatively as possible to meet these challenges.

And how did you adapt?

For me it was trying to get to a place of clarity as quickly as possible. Where we could feel confident in the decisions we were making – decisions that would benefit not only the health of the business but the health and safety of our people and the communities where we work.

We recently had the pleasure of General James Mattis, the former United States Secretary of Defense, joining us for an Oxford Town Hall and he described the crux of a crisis being the confluence of unpredictability coupled with a lack of control. Of course, this is the exact opposite of what business leaders strive for when they make decisions. We want predictably and control. So the real challenge these past few months has been to lead from a place of unpredictability and confusion, to a place of clarity.

 How do you get to that place of clarity?

Information is critical, but in reality during a crisis you never have all the information, or time to gather all the information, that you want. So you have to imagine the range of potential outcomes. You have to be creative and imagine things that you hadn’t experienced before and talk through those possibilities with your teams with full transparency. That is what helps you get to a point of clarity.

And we had to do that from both an operational standpoint and an investment standpoint. So as an example, as an operator, we had to figure out months ago what it would look like when we reopen. What are the protocols and practices that we are going to have to put in place? Are we going to health screen our employees? Are we going to health screen customers coming into a facility? These scenarios hadn’t even been raised yet, and wouldn’t be resolved by privacy departments or HR. We had to anticipate what those eventualities were likely to look like and prepare ourselves for that possibility.

On the investment side, we had to discuss our entire playbook and approach to investments given the state of the market. Should we change our approach? Might we consider things with a different risk lens than we had even only a quarter ago?

Keeping the lines of conversation and keeping leadership teams engaged and empowered as you go through these scenarios is critical for bringing overall clarity.

Over the past few weeks I have shared highlights of my discussions with leaders across OMERS and its portfolio companies around leadership lessons learned during the COVID-19 pandemic. What has really stood out to me through these conversations is the important role that organizational trust and making quick decisions, even if they prove to be wrong and need to be changed, play in moving a company through a crisis. It has also become clear that companies that value their people and the communities in which they live and work, and where compassion and care is shown, stand a much better chance of getting through the crisis strong and united

Good interview with Oxford Properties’ President Michael Turner. 

The focus was on leadership during a crisis, a timely topic, but being an investment person at heart, I would have liked more detail on Oxford Properties’ massive real estate portfolio and how they're coping with the pandemic.

In particular, are they following Ivanhoé Cambridge and taking massive writedowns on their retail assets? What do they see in the office space? Do they agree or disagree with me that there is a paradigm shift going on in real estate which will significantly impact the asset class going forward? Is the red hot logistics space way overvalued now and due for a major pullback in the post-pandemic world or is the secular trend still intact? Where do they see opportunities now regionally and internationally and across which sectors?

Again, I'd love to ask all these questions to Michael Turner, Nathalie Palladitcheff, Dennis Lopez, John Sullivan, Peter Ballon, Neil Cunningham, Darren Baccus and other top Canadian pension real estate experts.

When I chatted with Blake Hutcheson, OMERS' President and CEO and the former President of Oxford Properties, back in June, he said Retail is suffering due to the pandemic and that will remain a challenging area but they brought it down to 15% of  the total portfolio. 

Where I found his comments interesting was in the office space. He said that some companies will need more "elbow room" and increase their rental space, others will not as their employees work from home, and the WeWorks will find it hard to rent rotating office space. But he added "building a culture is very tough" via remote work. He estimates demand for office space will fall by "15% over the next 5 years in a worst case scenario" and reminded me these are long-term leases so the decline in demand won't be felt all at once (maybe 3% a year).

Anyway, all Canadian pensions are dealing with some major challenges in parts of their real estate portfolio.  

In terms of what lies ahead, some real estate lawyers I know tell me developers with cash are rushed in to buy land and are deploying it in hot areas.

Maybe, but as I keep telling these lawyers, I watch what the big tech giants (Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, etc.) are doing because they set the major trends, as well as what the big banks, big accounting firms and big law firms are doing, and so far, I don't see people rushing back to the offices and that includes all of Canada's pensions.

One of my friends rents office space at 1250 René-Lévesque West here in Montreal which is where PSP Investments has its offices (it used to be owned by PSP) and he tells me it's a ghost town now, all these protocols for entering, couriers can't go up, all the coffee shops and restaurants are closed (except Madisons downstairs and the Provigo at the next door building), and you can't be more than two people in an elevator. Just that alone is a logistical nightmare, waiting for hours to get to your floor!

Yes, the pandemic will end, there will be a vaccine, life will resume but if you think it will be business as usual at the office, airports, and elsewhere, you're in for a major surprise. 

Just like 9/11 is etched in our collective psyche, nobody will forget this pandemic, not in our lifetime.

Getting back to Michael Turner's comments above, I like the part where he said: "We recently had the pleasure of General James Mattis, the former United States Secretary of Defense, joining us for an Oxford Town Hall and he described the crux of a crisis being the confluence of unpredictability coupled with a lack of control."

Boy, if it's anyone who knows how to navigate through chaos and unpredictable situations, it's 'Mad Dog' Mattis, he's seen it all, especially being part of  the Trump administration. I would have loved to be part of that Oxford Town Hall.

Now, while I was off, there were other important interviews OMERS’ CIO had with other senior managers at that organization. 

In particular, Mr. Rai spoke with Mike Graham, who on April 1 was made Global Head of OMERS Private Equity. Here are some insights into what he learned about taking over in a time of upheaval, and about leadership under fire: 

Mike, you took on the role of head of Private Equity April 1, just a couple of weeks into the pandemic hitting North America. How difficult was it to take over in that environment and how did you adjust your leadership style to manage through it?

It certainly wasn’t ideal and I’ve definitely had to adapt my leadership style and my approach. I was excited and prepared to start planning out a broader vision for the Private Equity group and instead we’ve been focused almost exclusively on shorter-term goals and getting through the ups and downs of the reality of what COVID has brought upon our portfolio companies. So, from a leadership standpoint that presents a very different set of skills that you have to use.

On the other hand, what I have enjoyed as a leader is that this crisis has allowed us to get to know each other better in a short time. Together we’ve worked through some very stressful situations which has built trust, and in particular I think the team has seen the trust that leadership has in them at all levels.

Trusting your people and your processes is crucial in crises like these.

We can’t make decisions quickly if there’s no trust. We all push and prod each other all the time and test our thinking within the Private Equity group, but ultimately we trust each person to make good calls. We’ve made it clear to the team that when it comes to making decisions our mantra is that speed in a crisis is more important than perfection. We’ve tried not to dwell or vacillate on decisions because it’s easier and more effective in these changing environments to adapt than it is to stand with your heels planted on the ground.

Successful decision-making has to be based on information and the sharing of information. How did you manage that with so many different portfolio companies in such a variety of sectors, each being impacted in different ways by the shutdown?

It’s all about over communication. We communicated all the facts that were available to us as much as we could to help arm people with the information they needed to make sound decisions.

The fact that we had insight into different sectors, and geographies, was a huge benefit. We saw early on the impact COVID was having on our businesses in Europe. We were able to draw on the consumer and the government actions we were seeing over there. We could also draw on data and trends from our portfolio companies in the earliest hit sectors to then help forecast what we might expect across the other businesses in the portfolio. A consistent cadence of open and transparent communication was essential through this process. We kept our eye on the short-term prize, which was to come out the other end of the crisis intact, so we could begin to focus anew on creating long term value at our portfolio companies.

On a personal, human level, what have you learned from this situation?

The most important thing I’ve learned is the need to act with compassion and humility. We’ve had some very tense moments but through it all, we respected each other, we supported each other and we’ve acted as true partners. Each of us is experiencing not only business hardships but personal anxiety on some level. In recognizing this, we try to set the proper tone in each of our meetings – a tone of respect, gratitude and compassion.  

Lastly, on the point of humility, I think one thing that has become clear to me as a new leader is that I don’t know all the answers, and that’s ok. I ask other people for help more than I used to, and I think we’ve all been much more willing to ask for help these days, and that’s a great thing.

It is this last point of Mike’s that really stuck with me. Always be grateful and take care of those around you, whether it’s colleagues, friends or family. Kindness and compassion are the best medicines in a crisis. 

I've heard really nice things about Mike Graham from various contacts of mine.

The point he makes on humility is so important, this pandemic has taught all of us how important it is to stay humble because we simply don't know everything about this virus and its long-term effects.

Lastly, Satish Rai spoke with Bruce Power's President and CEO Mike Rencheck to learn about the leadership principles that guided his company through these stormy waters (Bruce Power is owned by OMERS). Here’s what he had to say.

Mike, as an organization that provides power to nearly a third of Ontario’s homes, businesses and communities, Bruce Power didn’t have the luxury to stop and reflect on the pandemic and how best to adapt to it. How did you manage to keep the lights on and the province running under such difficult circumstances?

It was not just the lights, but also essential services that were critical to helping the medical community deal with the crisis itself. For example, harvesting isotopes that are used to sterilize medical equipment for front line workers, or continuing with some of our life extension projects. As you say, we could not pause, so we turned to four leadership principles to keep us moving forward. We had to be able to execute, clarify, adapt and soothe.

The first principle, execute, is based on the need to prioritize and make a plan, no matter how short-term, and execute on that plan immediately. Every decision we make, even during good times, is difficult, because the stakes are so high. But a leader cannot be afraid to make decisions as long as they are trying to do the right thing, even if it means risking making mistakes.

 In a scenario like this, which none of us have ever gone through before, how do you determine what is the right thing to do?

Information and the sharing of that information are vital. That’s where the need to clarify comes into play. As long as the information and rationale behind the decisions are clear and are being constantly communicated, then leadership teams, staff and other stakeholders feel comforted in that shared understanding, as much or as little as there may be. Knowing what the right thing is to do can be difficult but, in these scenarios, almost any decision is better than no decision, or delaying a decision for too long. Remember, it is never too late to do the right thing as more information becomes available or a crisis unfolds.

And as things evolve that’s where the need to adapt comes into play?

Exactly. Making these tough decisions is easier when you go into the process with an understanding that you will need to adapt. Plans will change more than once or twice. Accepting this allows you to be less rigid and more creative in your decision-making.

As an essential service how did you balance the need to keep providing Ontarians with the power they need, while still ensuring the safety and wellbeing of your teams and the people in the communities you serve.

It’s a delicate balance. When you have 6,500 people working for the organization and you know operations must continue, you have to take immediate actions, and with that you’re evaluating risk the entire time. For example, a spread of the infection in a facility where you need highly trained individuals working at a reactor would mean the need to shut down the operation entirely. We couldn’t afford that, and neither could the province.

Once deployed, our business continuity planning teams looked at various scenarios of how the virus could expand and progress, not only in the community but at site. We then actioned accordingly to ensure controls are in place to protect those people.

We also knew from the onset that we would need to make changes to our human performance toolset to help our workers with the added stress of this uncertain new reality. This toolset was just recognized by the World Association of Nuclear Operations for Excellence. It was developed by our frontline leadership and then deployed to the roughly 3,500 people we have working from home. It’s just as stressful having to look at critical components and calculations for the project work we’re doing, while you’re sitting at home without anybody to talk to, as it is to be in the frontline.

That level of stress and responsibility must take a great toll on your workforce. How do you manage that as a leader?

I will start first by saying that we have the very best and most professional and qualified workforce in the world, I really believe that. These jobs are always highly stressful, but when you add in the unique dynamics of COVID-19 to the equation, leaders need to have the ability to soothe. In order to do that, leadership must be present and accounted for. That means being physically present if the expectation is for others to have to be present. It means keeping lines of honest communication open all the time. And, it means creating and promoting a culture of compassion and care for one another and for the communities we serve. In difficult times, senior leadership being present – physically and emotionally, means everything.

There are many valuable lessons to be learned from this discussion with Mike, but one he touched on and that I feel is often overlooked is that there’s no time to worry about perfection in a crisis. There’s simply no time. Sometimes good is good enough, and then you can adapt as the crisis evolves. 

Amen to that, he's right, there’s no time to worry about perfection in a crisis. 
 
With this latest installment, I brought you the latest from OMERS on leadership under fire. 

Remember to read the first one here where Annesley Wallace, OMERS' Chief Pension Officer, chatted about the impact of COVID-19 and the importance of leadership during unprecedented times.
 
Below, John Ruffolo, founder of OMERS Ventures and co-founder of the Council of Canadian Innovators, spoke at the TechTO Health conference via a webcast earlier this summer discussing his thoughts around the impact of a global pandemic on innovation in health tech.

And CGTNBizTalk spoke with Bruce Flatt, CEO of Brookfield Asset Management. Take the time to watch both interviews, lots of great insights.

Top Funds' Activity in Q2 2020

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Naeem Aslam of Forbes reports that Warren Buffett dumps US bank stocks and buys a gold mining stock and that hedge funds dump tech shares:

On August 14th, we had a 13F filing update in the U.S., which gives more insight about the smart money and how it is deploying its capital. Investors are always keen to know and relate this information to their trading strategy. For retail traders, this information can be seen as confirmation of whether their investment strategy is correct and how they can fine-tune it.

Buffett Buys Barrick Gold

The most significant headline of the 13F filing was about Berkshire Hathaway’activity. It has purchased stock in Barrick Gold, a Canada-based mining company. Its position in Barrick Gold (GOLD) is worth nearly $565 million.

Buffett Dumps Goldman Sach, Still Owns Bank Of America

The Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, reduced Berkshire Hathaway's positions in U.S. banks: JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and PNC. It is critical to mention that Buffett still holds some U.S. banks, and Bank of America (BAC) is one of them.

Overall, it may not be a stretch statement to say Warren Buffett's fund was more busy selling its positions— the fund sold its airline stocks—than buying stocks during the coronavirus pandemic.

Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund Sells Disney, Facebook, BP

The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund exited its positions in Disney (DIS), Facebook (FB), Boeing (BA) and BP. Disney stock is mainly beaten down due to coronavirus, as the Disney theme parks are still under the influence of Covid-19. Apart from that, Disney is the stock among its peers that can see massive upside in the coming quarters because of its new initiatives such as Disney+ streaming and also Disney premiering its new movies online—a new territory.

The BP stock is very much an energy story. BP is making efforts in the renewable sector; these bets can pay off in the long term.

Facebook is the giant in the social media space, and with the introduction of Instagram Reels, it is ready to take on its competition, TikTok. As for the Boeing stock, yes, the company is under pressure as the entire airline sector is suffering massively. However, most of the airlines are selling their old planes, and when the traffic does return, we will likely see a surge.

Pershing Square Dumps Berkshire Hathaway

Pershing Square, which acts as more of an event-driven fund, has exited its position in Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) and Blackstone (BX). The fund has increased its exposure in the restaurant industry, as the coronavirus has adversely influenced the sector. There are several bargains here, such as Chipotle (CMG).

Aparna Narayanan of Investor's Business Daily also reports that Tesla and Apple are among the ten hottest stocks hedge funds bought in Q2:

Tesla stock saw strong interest from top hedge funds' in the second quarter, with companies gaining from pandemic trends such as online work and play generally in favor, the latest quarterly 13F filings with the SEC show.

Here are the 10 stocks that were most popular among 150 winning hedge funds last quarter, as per new 13F filings tracked by Whalewisdom.com. The website uses a proprietary calculation to rank the stocks.

Individual investors use the regulatory data to assess where the "smart money" is placing its bets. The 13F filings reflect hedge funds' stock portfolio holdings at the end of each calendar quarter.

  1. Workday (WDAY)
  2. MercadoLibre (MELI)
  3. Zoom Video Communications (ZM)
  4. Apple (AAPL)
  5. Tesla (TSLA)
  6. Shopify (SHOP)
  7. Coupa Software (COUP)
  8. Zillow (Z)
  9. Nvidia (NVDA)
  10. Pinduoduo (PDD)

While hedge funds were generally hot on Tesla stock in Q2, the Scottish fund manager Baillie Gifford, its largest institutional shareholder, trimmed its stake by 2%. Tesla stock remains No. 1 in Baillie Gifford's portfolio, at 10% of assets.

Apple kept its place as the No. 1 stock in Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio in Q2. Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett began gathering Apple shares in Q1 2016 and is now one of the iPhone maker's three biggest institutional shareholders. Apple stock accounts for more than 44% of Berkshire's portfolio.

Workday stock is on the IBD 50 list of top growth stocks. So are Zoom Video and Nvidia.

Meanwhile, Zillow stock was recently featured in an IBD Stock of the Day column, which highlights stocks worth watching as they make notable moves on their charts.

Hedge Funds' Stock Buys And Sells

Among other notable hedge fund moves in Q2, activist investor Dan Loeb of Third Point reduced its Raytheon Technologies (RTX) stake by 17%. Loeb had opposed the merger of United Technologies and defense contractor Raytheon Company, which produced Raytheon Technologies.

Third Point also added more than 4 million shares of Disney (DIS) to his portfolio. Disney stock now the biggest stock in Third Point's portfolio at 8.4% of assets.

David Tepper's Appaloosa Management boosted its Alibaba (BABA) stake by 49%, pared Amazon (AMZN) by 10%, and bought 5 million more shares of T-Mobile (TMUS). Those are now the top three stocks in its portfolio, accounting for roughly a third of Appaloosa's portfolio combined.

Hedge fund filings confirmed that Bill Ackman's Pershing Square fully exited its large stake in Berkshire Hathaway last quarter, dumping nearly 5.5 million shares. The sale was first reported in May, with Ackman calling Berkshire Hathaway stock a "strong investment" but suggesting he wished to act on new growth opportunities in the pandemic-hit market.

Zero Hedge also posted a summary of what the most prominent hedge funds did in the second quarter, courtesy of Bloomberg:

ADAGE CAPITAL PARTNERS

  • Top new buys: RPRX, ABBV, W, HZNP, FIVE, ST, CCK, TRV, USB, JCI
  • Top exits: BMY, GILD, ETN, PNC, MAS, EXC, AON, CCMP, NI, CX
  • Boosted stakes in: BURL, PYPL, FTV, ITT, LOW, GOOGL, TMUS, EYE, AZO, BMRN
  • Cut stakes in: LMT, JNJ, PFE, HON, VZ, VRTX, TGT, VMC, PXD, LLY

APPALOOSA

  • Top new buys: T, V, MA, PYPL, DIS, SYY, EMR, MO, SQ, TEN
  • Top exits: INTEQ, XLU, BKLN
  • Boosted stakes in: TMUS, BABA, MU, HCA, MSFT, BSX, TWTR, WFC, CRM, GT
  • Cut stakes in: PCG, UNH, TSLA, HUM, VST, AMLP, AVGO, NFLX, QCOM, ADBE

BALYASNY ASSET MANAGEMENT

  • Top new buys: SCHW, ABT, TGT, HD, ADBE, SHOP, ITW, COST, C
  • Top exits: JCI, AMTD, INTC, CHTR, KR, TMUS, TTWO, NVDA, ICE, ROST
  • Boosted stakes in: PYPL, FISV, BABA, JPM, FLT, NSC, LITE, DKS, QCOM, LHX
  • Cut stakes in: BSX, LOW, DG, FIS, ABBV, BAX, INTU, JD, BK, ETFC

BAUPOST GROUP

  • Top new buys: HCA, VRNT, VTR, SSNC
  • Top exits: LNG, ET, XPO, SPR, CARS
  • Boosted stakes in: LBTYK, TBIO, QRVO, ATRA, HDS
  • Cut stakes in: FB, GOOG, PCG, UNVR, ABC, HPQ, CLNY, VIST, AKBA

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY

  • Top new buys: GOLD
  • Top exits: DAL, LUV, UAL, AAL, QSR, GS, OXY
  • Boosted stakes in: STOR, KR, SU
  • Cut stakes in: WFC, JPM, SIRI, PNC, MTB, BK, MA, V, CHTR, USB

BRIDGEWATER ASSOCIATES

  • Top new buys: UPS, ZLAB, CSX, ECL, TT, RNG, PAYC, ROP, GWW, FICO
  • Top exits: TLT, HYG, EMB, RY, TD, TIP, CNI, BNS, TRP, BCE
  • Boosted stakes in: SPY, GLD, IVV, FXI, BABA, MCHI, IAU, JD, PDD, VEA
  • Cut stakes in: EWZ, LQD, INDA, EWY, EEM, IEMG, VWO, EWW, BAM, EWT

COATUE MANAGEMENT

  • Top new buys: BA, DOCU, INO, DXCM, WYNN, HWM, LYV, ALGN, TDG, DHT
  • Top exits: RNG, SNAP, BYND, LKNCY, GLUU, ISRG, CGC, STNE, MCD, VGK
  • Boosted stakes in: DIS, PYPL, ZM, SQ, CRWD, PTON, LRCX, SHOP, MU, PODD
  • Cut stakes in: MSFT, LBRDK, BABA, TWTR, JD, NKE, GPN, CREE, GH, NFLX

CORSAIR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT

  • Top new buys: IWO, IWM, WMB, NATR, MFIN
  • Top exits: LAUR, RHP, ECPG, ATKR, NMRK, TROX, KRA, FSK, HHC, SATS
  • Boosted stakes in: VRT, WSC, GDDY, CC, BH, BBCP, METC, BRK/B
  • Cut stakes in: HGV, HMHC, FMC, NWSA, REPH, GOOG, CHDN, C, CUBI, PLYA

CORVEX MANAGEMENT

  • Top new buys: TMUS, EXC, EVRG, CMCSA, JPM, IAA, TIF, LYV, PCG
  • Top exits: ZEN, CRM, FANG, UNP, VMC, MPC, UNH, ANTM, SPY
  • Boosted stakes in: MGM, GLD, BABA, CNP, NFLX, HUM, CNC, MSGS
  • Cut stakes in: ADBE, ATUS, ATVI, AMZN

D1 CAPITAL PARTNERS

  • Top new buys: JPM, AVB, EXPE, TGT, DEI, AAP, ESS, CVNA, SMAR, PNC
  • Top exits: LIN, GWRE, TME, NKE, UNH, BAC, PDD, DHI, INMD
  • Boosted stakes in: BABA, USB, JD, LVS, MSFT, HPP, KRC, CCC, LYV, HLT
  • Cut stakes in: NFLX, FB, AMZN, DIS, RACE, ORLY, PPD, AZO, SBUX, GOOGL

DUQUESNE FAMILY OFFICE

  • Top new buys: TMUS, JPM, XBI, SBUX, BKNG, SMAR, CCL, WFC, LYV, CB
  • Top exits: ABT, QCOM, NOW, ADBE, INDA, COUP, TWOU, EDU, SNE, TWLO
  • Boosted stakes in: MSFT, JD, FCX, FSLY, BABA, CRWD, RETA, PLAN, FLEX
  • Cut stakes in: NFLX, FB, AMZN, WDAY, ATVI, GOOGL, GE, IQV, FIS, DISH

ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT

  • Top new buys: WELL, FSCT
  • Top exits: LQD, RRTS, ESI, HYG, XOP, NEWR, CSOD, NTNX, CNHI, EGHT
  • Boosted stakes in: DELL, TWTR, RYAAY

ENGAGED CAPITAL

  • Top new buys: JACK, MGLN, SMPL, IWM
  • Top exits: APOG
  • Boosted stakes in: STKL, NCR
  • Cut stakes in: HAIN

FIR TREE

  • Top new buys: SQ, LYV, PS, SNAP, VG, EIX, SABR, EXPE, J, PCPL
  • Top exits: FLT, FPAC, BKNG, SHLL, CCH, GOOG, APXT, OAC, DMS, EXPC
  • Boosted stakes in: CNC, CTXS
  • Cut stakes in: DIS, MSFT, TMUS, LAUR, ANTM, DELL, EXC, CMCSA, SLM, TRNE

GREENLIGHT CAPITAL

  • Top new buys: GDX, AAWW, TECK, REZI, JACK, GLD, APG, TPX, SATS, WHR
  • Top exits: ATUS, ADNT, CNC, MO, PAYX, AXP, GS, DHR, BRK/B, DIS
  • Boosted stakes in: AER, CHNG, NBSE, GPOR
  • Cut stakes in: CNX, XELA, CC

ICAHN

  • Top exits: HPQ, HTZ, FCX
  • Boosted stakes in: IEP, LNG, TEN
  • Cut stakes in: CLDR

IMPALA ASSET MANAGEMENT

  • Top new buys: LAD, DRI, NSC, HES, CMI, VAC, TOL, ADNT, DOOO, MU
  • Top exits: MSFT, PCAR, CSX, KBH, VMC, MA, AMZN, FDX, EXP
  • Boosted stakes in: HOG, RIO, AAWW, FUN, WYNN, UFI
  • Cut stakes in: TGT, QCOM, KSU, SBLK, TTWO, SIX, KNX, TCKRF, NVR, TECK

JANA PARTNERS

  • Top exits: NEWR, JACK
  • Boosted stakes in: PRSP, SPY
  • Cut stakes in: AXTA, HDS, HI, BLMN, ELY, CAG

LAKEWOOD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT

  • Top new buys: HDS, CRL, LBTYK, LBTYA, UE, CDK, NKLA, ABG, CROX, SHAK
  • Top exits: WUBA, AMZN, ICE, FNF, TWO, YY, RNR, TPR, WW, REAL
  • Boosted stakes in: FAF, BABA, ANTM, AXS, BIDU, BHC, HCA, SKX, C, ACGL
  • Cut stakes in: GOOGL, CI, FB, MA, DELL, GS, AGNC, APO, CMCSA, BC

LANSDOWNE

  • Top new buys: C, VMC, LUV, ED, FCX, RYAAY, AES, COG, TMUS, BKNG
  • Top exits: DHT, NKLA, AGI, TT, IQ, BABA
  • Boosted stakes in: MU
  • Cut stakes in: UAL, DAL, FSLR, GE, ETN, ADI, REGI, LRCX, TSM, SMMT

LONG POND

  • Top new buys: PEAK, LVS, DEI, EQR, SHO, WELL, SEAS, UDR, INVH, MAR
  • Top exits: H, DHI, VNO, PEB, PGRE, MGM, VAC, RRR, JLL, CUZ
  • Boosted stakes in: CPT, AVB, MAA, AIV, HLT, ESS, FR, KRC, JBGS
  • Cut stakes in: WH, HGV, RHP, HPP, SBRA

MAGNETAR FINANCIAL

  • Top new buys: ADCT, NVS, PKI
  • Top exits: HPQ, TSG, DLR, DKNG, ET, EPD, KMI, LHCG, CRL
  • Boosted stakes in: GRUB, WLTW, LH, BDX, LCA, CPAA, SYNH, ABBV, CRSA, DGX
  • Cut stakes in: PFE, ADSW, TIF, UBER, NVST, BAX, WMB, PPD, MEET, FREE

MAVERICK CAPITAL

  • Top new buys: AXP, LIVN, VFC, MKC, GE, BGS, THS, GIS, CRI, FL
  • Top exits: QSR, COMM, ALKS, H, BX, GME, WING, ARMK, ORCL, LB
  • Boosted stakes in: FB, AMZN, DLTR, MSFT, LRCX, APD, ATRA, NFLX, NKTR, UBER
  • Cut stakes in: FLT, BABA, DD, CCK, STNE, PRSP, TMUS, CNC, ADBE, KKR

MELVIN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT

  • Top new buys: DOCU, TWLO, SE, GOOGL, AEO, LOW, NUAN, HLT, TPX, PINS
  • Top exits: TTWO, CPRT, EDU, DG, ADYEN, EFX, ADI, LKNCY, IQV, QSR
  • Boosted stakes in: FISV, AZO, BKNG, JD, PYPL, LB, AAP, MA, FICO, DPZ
  • Cut stakes in: FIS, FB, CSGP, LH, NFLX, DRI, VRSN, AMZN, EL, PLAN

OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT

  • Top new buys: PCG, GTH, API, SRNE
  • Top exits: CEO, SRLP, WMB, BRFS, ASRT, ORCC, PVAC, MDRIQ
  • Boosted stakes in: TMHC, AU, TSM, CX, ITUB, MELI, BIDU, AFYA, IBN, AZUL
  • Cut stakes in: BABA, BCEI, CZR, CCS, SMCI

OMEGA ADVISORS

  • Top new buys: DNRCQ
  • Top exits: GOOGL, SSSS, TWO, GPMT
  • Boosted stakes in: COOP, JPM, FOE, GTN, MGY, SNR, SRGA, AMCX
  • Cut stakes in: VICI, GCI, FCRD, NBR, ASPU, OCN, EFC, MVC, PE, ABR

PERSHING SQUARE

  • Top exits: BRK/B, BX, PK
  • Boosted stakes in: QSR, LOW
  • Cut stakes in: HHC

SOROBAN CAPITAL

  • Top new buys: RTX, CMCSA, HLT, MAR, YUM
  • Top exits: LHX, QSR, NSC
  • Boosted stakes in: BABA, SNE
  • Cut stakes in: NOC, UNP, CSX, ATUS, AMZN, MSFT

SOROS FUND MANAGEMENT

  • Top new buys: IGSB, SLQT, HAIN, PCG, DKNG, DRI, SPSB, BAC, MS, C
  • Top exits: XLU, WMGI, UNH, LNT, SHW, ALL, CBOE, LEN, DIS, CVE
  • Boosted stakes in: LQD, TMUS, NLOK, VICI, TDG, ARMK, BK, GS, ETFC, FOCS
  • Cut stakes in: PTON, TIF, TCO, ORCC, VST, KKR, CLVS, AVTR, ATVI, DHI

STARBOARD

  • Top new buys: IWM, IWR
  • Top exits: REZI
  • Boosted stakes in: MD, ACIW
  • Cut stakes in: EBAY, IWN, CERN, NLOK, CVLT, BOX, MMSI, GDOT

TEMASEK HOLDINGS

  • Top new buys: BLK, PDD, SBUX
  • Top exits: BMRN, UNVR, RDS/B, PAGS, STNE, TOUR, FSLY, WORK
  • Boosted stakes in: BGNE, HDB, IBN, CBPO, VMW
  • Cut stakes in: BABA, FIS, VIRT, NIO, DDOG, VNET, INFO

TIGER GLOBAL

  • Top new buys: ZI, API, DADA
  • Top exits: IQ, LVGO, BILL, STG, JCPNQ
  • Boosted stakes in: JD, AMZN, MSFT, CRWD, SPOT, PDD, DDOG, CRM, WDAY, ZM
  • Cut stakes in: ATH, SVMK, RDFN, MA, STNE, PYPL

TUDOR INVESTMENT

  • Top new buys: ADSW, PCG, TMUS, TME, LHX, ATHM, BXMT, NFLX, ESS, EQR
  • Top exits: TIP, DEI, ABBV, FHN, KRC, GLPI, COP, PEG, LAD, MS
  • Boosted stakes in: AMTD, ETFC, GLIBA, SOXX, X, O, AAPL, UBER, CRWD, TCO
  • Cut stakes in: SPY, JAZZ, CERN, TEAM, HPQ, MCD, EA, LRCX, CUZ, PSB

VIKING GLOBAL INVESTORS

  • Top new buys: TMO, HLT, APG, NUAN, MCO, PH, ADI, SHW, DRI, ZNTL
  • Top exits: ANTM, GOOGL, FB, NSC, ORLY, A, NOW, PGR, BMRN, AJG
  • Boosted stakes in: AXP, CMCSA, FIS, LVS, TMUS, PLAN, JPM, AON, CB, SE
  • Cut stakes in: NFLX, BSX, JD, LOW, UBER, CME, MELI, MU, CRM, CHNG

WHALE ROCK CAPITAL MANAGEMENT

  • Top new buys: SQ, NXPI, MELI, CREE, VRM, ZI
  • Top exits: DIS, BABA, INTC, MU, MIME, ZS, ATVI, TSM, KLIC, PLAN
  • Boosted stakes in: FSLY, SHOP, DOCU, TSLA, COUP, AMZN, W, FB, OKTA, BILL
  • Cut stakes in: NOW, MSFT, NET, PTON, SMAR, FTNT, CRWD, AVLR, ZM, DDOG

Source: Bloomberg, HSBC

It's that time of the year again, we get a sneak peek into the portfolios of top funds, with the customary 45-day lag.  

Before I get into my thoughts on what top funds bought and sold in Q2, a little detour to bring you more up-to-date information on markets.

Earlier this week, Lu Wang of Bloomberg News reported the stock market is at a record forcing everyone to become a believer:

From professional investors to market handicappers, it’s becoming next to impossible to stay bearish in the face of the rally in equities.

Fund managers who went to cash when the pandemic broke out have been forced back in to stocks, pushing measures of positioning toward historical highs. Wall Street forecasters, some of whom threw up their hands in surrender four months ago, are pushing up targets each day. Even Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which once warned that bad loans and falling dividends could drive a second leg of the bear market, now sees another 6% of upside in the S&P 500.

While testament to the career pressure missing a $12 trillion rally creates, the unanimity has become one of the biggest risk factors in markets right now, with positions getting crowded as everyone is forced to buy. A custom gauge of sentiment compiled by Citigroup Inc. showed “euphoria” just hit the highest level since the dot-com era.

relates to Stock Market at Record Forcing Everyone to Become Believer

“While a new all-time closing high would certainly be encouraging, it’s not always the pedal to the metal trade that it would seem,” said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at Bay Crest Partners. “There is lot of optimism out there, which often makes breakouts harder to sustain.”

Fear of missing out gave birth to the rally and now it’s downright rampant after stocks staged a powerful rebound from the fastest bear market ever. Up more than 50% in less six months, the S&P 500 is poised for the quickest recovery on record. The index rose to as high as 3,395.06 Tuesday, surpassing its prior intraday record reached in February, before trading little changed on the day.

Money managers are embracing the equity rally after cutting their exposure to historically low levels during the downdraft, according to a survey by the National Association of Active Investment Managers. The group’s exposure index, tracking investment advisers from 200 firms overseeing more than $30 billion, has risen to a two-year high. Even the most bearish respondents are 50% long equities, something not seen since late 2017.

Fund managers raising equity exposure to a two-year high amid rally

“Takeaways from discussions with institutional investors indicate significant comfort with central banks’ willingness to keep rates low for an extended period,” Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equity strategist at Citigroup, wrote in a note last week. “This is a marked shift from commentary heard a month or two ago and reflects both complacent/ebullient investor sentiment and a sense of rationalization for the relentless bull run.”

Wall Street strategists, who rushed to cut price targets for the S&P 500 during the March selloff, are now trying to catch up with a rally that has defied most of their predictions. More than half of the strategists tracked by Bloomberg have raised their projections since June, when their projections were way below the market.

The latest skeptic giving in is Goldman’s David Kostin, who boosted his 2020 target by 20% to 3,600, the most bullish among peers. The call ended his months of skepticism over the market’s resilience, including a warning in May that the S&P 500 would probably drop to 2,400 over the next three months. Like the others, Kostin’s bullish case is centered around near record-low interest rates.

“Share prices reflect not just the expected future stream of earnings but also the rate at which the profits are discounted to present value,” Kostin wrote in a note. “A plunging risk-free rate partially explains why equities have performed so well despite downward revisions to expected earnings.”

As stocks keep rising and turbulence subsides, demand from computer-driven investors who buy and sell stocks on momentum or volatility signals, is also returning. At Deutsche Bank AG, strategists including Binky Chadha aggregated positioning among stock pickers and quant funds, and found their overall exposure has increased to a one-year high.

Fund positioning tends to show an inverse relationship with future market returns, Deutsche Bank study shows. That is, the more bullish fund managers are, the poorer the market performs in coming coming months. While the current reading still signals positive market returns, with gains averaging 1% over the next month, it also points to one third of chances to go negative.

So much faith is put in the Federal Reserve that investors are willing to pay up for earnings that’s estimated to drop 20% this year. At 26 times forecast profits, the S&P 500 was traded at the most expensive level in two decades. To Peter Cecchini, founder of AlphaOmega Advisors LLC, all the index’s gains above 3,000 are unjustified.

“The equity markets are now like an old elevator way over capacity,” said Cecchini. “It’s just a matter of time before the cable snaps and its passengers end up in the basement. That’s where the Fed will be waiting.”

Now, let me give you a few of my market thoughts:

  • Starting in late March, the Fed cranked up its balance by $3 trillion to backstop credit and equity markets. By doing this, it infected the bears with monetary coronavirus and unleashed the mother of all liquidity orgies on Wall Street
  • Speculators which include top hedge funds and bank prop trading desks used all that excess liquidity to buy risk assets, everything from junk bonds to tech stocks, to highly speculative vaccine stocks, some of which ran up as much as 3,000 or 4,000 percent year-to-date (before cooling off recently). 
  • This is entirely rational behavior but make no mistake, we are in the midst of a massive liquidity bubble and even George Soros has publicly warned it's a liquidity bubble.
  • Anyone who thinks stocks would be up more than 50% since March lows and making new record highs without such massive Fed intervention is either a fool or completely delusional. 
  • It's the Fed, stupid. The Fed took out the big bazooka and prayed it would work. It did, asset prices are all up all over the world, including in emerging markets, but the problem is the Fed has sown the seeds of the next crisis.
  • Why? Because a handflul of mega cap tech names -- Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Netflix, NVIDIA, Tesla -- are melting up to bubble territory while the rest of the market is still depressed. This concentration risk is unprecedented as a handful of stocks represent almost 40% of the S&P 500.
  • Top hedge funds knew all this, they used the "Ackman bottom" when Bill Ackman went on CNBC in late March to scare the living daylights out of investors, to front-run the Fed and take super concentrated positions in a few tech names.
  • But most investors got caught flat footed, sold out of the market and didn't participate in this parabolic liquidity bubble over the last six months. Value investors, in particular, are underperforming once again relative to growth investors and some of them are jumping into this market to try to make some gains going into year-end for fear of missing out (FOMO).
  • On top of this, you have commodity trading advisors (CTAs) with trillions under management buying every breakout on the S&P and Nasdaq because that's what their systematic models tell them to do, driving stocks even higher.
  • Moreover, you have the passive investor craze where everyone is giving BlackRock, Vanguard, Fidelity and State Street money to invest in passive indexes which also exacerbates concentration risk and forces a handful of mega cap tech shares to fly to the stratosphere.
  • Of course, you also have the dumb day traders like Dave Portnoy who used this liquidity bubble to speculate on stocks, delusionally proclaiming "it's the easiest game ever". 
  • And now, the final clincher, Wall Street strategists throwing in the towel, toppling over each other to raise their S&P 500 targets for the year based on the fact that record low rates warrant these forecast adjustments because there is no alternative (TINA).

It's enough to make any investor shake their head in disbelief. 

I'm not a conspiracy theorist but given the vast fortunes Wall Street and a handful of tech gurus made since the pandemic erupted while many people have permanently lost their job, it makes you wonder.

Importantly, once again, the Fed has bailed out Wall Street and extremely high net worth individuals who invest in stocks and left everyone else to collect the crumbs Uncle Sam is sending them every month.

This is what capitalism has been reduced to, a charade that keeps benefiting the power elite and being a student of C. Wright Mills, I should have seen it all coming. 

The late comic genius and social commentator George Carlin was dead right: "It's called the American Dream because you have to be asleep to believe it."

In his book, The Myth of Capitalism, Jonathan Tepper argues persuasively that regulators and competition bureaus are to blame, effectively killing competition to ensure monopsonies thrive.

He has many good points but the truth is capitalism is a system which thrives on massive inequality, that's its endemic engine and its ultimate demise because when this massive inequality becomes unsustainable, it will implode the system (we are seeing it every year with rising social tensions).

Why am I sharing all this with you? Because you have to think a lot bigger when looking at the stock market and ask yourself who is benefiting the most from this pandemic and what are the long-term consequences.

Top hedge funds invest on behalf of endowments, large global pensions and sovereign wealth funds but they also invest on behalf of ultra high net worth clients at Blackstone, Goldman, UBS asset management, and other big bank and their wealth management divisions.

The Fed has bailed them all out, at least so far, but when the next major crisis hits, even the Bezos and Gates of this world will get hit and hit hard.

Now, let me get back to top funds' activity. Have a look at these charts:

 

Everyone knows tech shares have outperformed the entire market but two stocks -- Apple and Microsoft -- make up almost 44% of the S&P Technology ETF (XLK) and ten companies which include names like Visa, Mastercard, NVIDIA, PayPal, Adobe and Salesforce, make up 70% of the holdings of this ETF (they've all done well except for Cisco).

This brings me to my next point: who cares what top funds are buying and selling, most of them are buying concentrated positions in the XLK and they're severely underperforming this ETF on an absolute and risk-adjusted basis over the last six months.

Yes, this can and will change when these high-flying tech mega caps get clobbered but why pay hedge funds 2&20 when the XLK only charges 13 basis points (0.13%)?

I'm being facetious, of course, but very serious investors have implemented a portable alpha strategy to invest in hedge funds where they swap into a stock or bond index and invest in non directional hedge funds which add pure alpha over a cash benchmark (typically T-bills + 500 basis points or 5%).

Paying fees to a hedge fund for beta bets is a losing strategy in these markets. Even the great Warren Buffett has a portfolio that looks awfully similar to the XLK but not quite which is why he's underperforming again this year.

Still, Buffett isn't stupid, he's raising billions in cash, and for good reason:

 

 

Other top hedge funds are undoubtedly doing the same thing and many of them are likely worried we might get a repeat of last September's Quant Quacke 2.0

Can Apple and NVIDIA shares go to $600? Amazon and Tesla shares to $4,000? Sure, anything is possible in this Fed induced liquidity madness but be very careful chasing all these high-flyers because when the top hedge and quant funds pull the plug and decide to sell, it will be a bloodbath.

But what about the Fed? What about it? The tweet below summarizes everything you need to know:


 

Lastly, here are the large cap stocks which have outperformed over the last six months:

And here are large cap stocks making new 52-week highs:

 

Notice, in the first table there's a bunch of speculative vaccine stocks and in the second, you have Apple, Google but also other names like Fedex, Chipotle, Domino's Pizza and Lululemon.

I was talking to a trader I know earlier today and told him Target (TGT) popped this week and it seems like all the quant funds are just going long anything making a new 52-week high (classic momentum trade).

He told me he sees a market of stocks and too many people are focusing just on mega cap tech names.

It's kind of hard not to when they're measuring their performance relative to the S&P 500.

By the way, maybe all these large powerful hedge funds should measure their performance relative to the S&P Tech ETF (XLK) but that will just decimate them.

Anyway, I've rambled on long enough, wanted to give you a lot of food for thought here.

Have fun looking at the latest quarterly activity of top funds listed below.

The links take you straight to their top holdings and then click on the column head "Change (%)" to see where they increased and decreased their holdings (you have to click once or twice to see).

These funds are run almost exclusively by men but one of the most impressive ones, ARK, is run by a lady called Cathie Wood, the best investor you never heard of (she's a Tesla bull and upped her stake in Q2).

Top multi-strategy and event driven hedge funds

As the name implies, these hedge funds invest across a wide variety of hedge fund strategies like L/S Equity, L/S credit, global macro, convertible arbitrage, risk arbitrage, volatility arbitrage, merger arbitrage, distressed debt and statistical pair trading. Below are links to the holdings of some top multi-strategy hedge funds I track closely:

1) Appaloosa LP

2) Citadel Advisors

3) Balyasny Asset Management

4) Point72 Asset Management (Steve Cohen)

5) Peak6 Investments

6) Kingdon Capital Management

7) Millennium Management

8) Farallon Capital Management

9) HBK Investments

10) Highbridge Capital Management

11) Highland Capital Management

12) Hudson Bay Capital Management

13) Pentwater Capital Management

14) Sculptor Capital Management (formerly known as Och-Ziff Capital Management)

15) ExodusPoint Capital Management

16) Carlson Capital Management

17) Magnetar Capital

18) Whitebox Advisors

19) QVT Financial 

20) Paloma Partners

21) Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisors

22) York Capital Management

Top Global Macro Hedge Funds and Family Offices

These hedge funds gained notoriety because of George Soros, arguably the best and most famous hedge fund manager. Global macros typically invest across fixed income, currency, commodity and equity markets.

George Soros, Carl Icahn, Stanley Druckenmiller, Julian Robertson  have converted their hedge funds into family offices to manage their own money.

1) Soros Fund Management

2) Icahn Associates

3) Duquesne Family Office (Stanley Druckenmiller)

4) Bridgewater Associates

5) Pointstate Capital Partners 

6) Caxton Associates (Bruce Kovner)

7) Tudor Investment Corporation (Paul Tudor Jones)

8) Tiger Management (Julian Robertson)

9) Discovery Capital Management (Rob Citrone)

10 Moore Capital Management

11) Element Capital

12) Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Trust (Michael Larson, the man behind Gates)

Top Quant and Market Neutral Hedge Funds

These funds use sophisticated mathematical algorithms to make their returns, typically using high-frequency models so they churn their portfolios often. A few of them have outstanding long-term track records and many believe quants are taking over the world. They typically only hire PhDs in mathematics, physics and computer science to develop their algorithms. Market neutral funds will engage in pair trading to remove market beta. Some are large asset managers that specialize in factor investing.

1) Alyeska Investment Group

2) Renaissance Technologies

3) DE Shaw & Co.

4) Two Sigma Investments

5) Cubist Systematic Strategies (a quant division of Point72)

6) Numeric Investors now part of Man Group

7) Analytic Investors

8) AQR Capital Management

9) Dimensional Fund Advisors

10) Quantitative Investment Management

11) Oxford Asset Management

12) PDT Partners

13) Angelo Gordon

14) Quantitative Systematic Strategies

15) Quantitative Investment Management

16) Bayesian Capital Management

17) SABA Capital Management

18) Quadrature Capital

19) Simplex Trading

Top Deep Value, Activist, Event Driven and Distressed Debt Funds

These are among the top long-only funds that everyone tracks. They include funds run by legendary investors like Warren Buffet, Seth Klarman, Ron Baron and Ken Fisher. Activist investors like to make investments in companies where management lacks the proper incentives to maximize shareholder value. They differ from traditional L/S hedge funds by having a more concentrated portfolio. Distressed debt funds typically invest in debt of a company but sometimes take equity positions.

1) Abrams Capital Management (the one-man wealth machine)

2) Berkshire Hathaway

3) TCI Fund Management

4) Baron Partners Fund (click here to view other Baron funds)

5) BHR Capital

6) Fisher Asset Management

7) Baupost Group

8) Fairfax Financial Holdings

9) Fairholme Capital

10) Gotham Asset Management

11) Fir Tree Partners

12) Elliott Associates

13) Jana Partners

14) Miller Value Partners (Bill Miller)

15) Highfields Capital Management 

16) Eminence Capital

17) Pershing Square Capital Management

18) New Mountain Vantage  Advisers

19) Atlantic Investment Management

20) Polaris Capital Management

21) Third Point

22) Marcato Capital Management

23) Glenview Capital Management

24) Apollo Management

25) Avenue Capital

26) Armistice Capital

27) Blue Harbor Group

28) Brigade Capital Management

29) Caspian Capital

30) Kerrisdale Advisers

31) Knighthead Capital Management

32) Relational Investors

33) Roystone Capital Management

34) Scopia Capital Management

35) Schneider Capital Management

36) ValueAct Capital

37) Vulcan Value Partners

38) Okumus Fund Management

39) Eagle Capital Management

40) Sasco Capital

41) Lyrical Asset Management

42) Gabelli Funds

43) Brave Warrior Advisors

44) Matrix Asset Advisors

45) Jet Capital

46) Conatus Capital Management

47) Starboard Value

48) Pzena Investment Management

49) Trian Fund Management

Top Long/Short Hedge Funds

These hedge funds go long shares they think will rise in value and short those they think will fall. Along with global macro funds, they command the bulk of hedge fund assets. There are many L/S funds but here is a small sample of some well-known funds.

1) Adage Capital Management

2) Viking Global Investors

3) Greenlight Capital

4) Maverick Capital

5) Pointstate Capital Partners 

6) Marathon Asset Management

7) Tiger Global Management (Chase Coleman)

8) Coatue Management

9) D1 Capital Partners

10) Artis Capital Management

11) Fox Point Capital Management

12) Jabre Capital Partners

13) Lone Pine Capital

14) Paulson & Co.

15) Bronson Point Management

16) Hoplite Capital Management

17) LSV Asset Management

18) Hussman Strategic Advisors

19) Cantillon Capital Management

20) Brookside Capital Management

21) Blue Ridge Capital

22) Iridian Asset Management

23) Clough Capital Partners

24) GLG Partners LP

25) Cadence Capital Management

26) Honeycomb Asset Management

27) New Mountain Vantage

28) Penserra Capital Management

29) Eminence Capital

30) Steadfast Capital Management

31) Brookside Capital Management

32) PAR Capital Capital Management

33) Gilder, Gagnon, Howe & Co

34) Brahman Capital

35) Bridger Management 

36) Kensico Capital Management

37) Kynikos Associates

38) Soroban Capital Partners

39) Passport Capital

40) Pennant Capital Management

41) Mason Capital Management

42) Tide Point Capital Management

43) Sirios Capital Management 

44) Hayman Capital Management

45) Highside Capital Management

46) Tremblant Capital Group

47) Decade Capital Management

48) Suvretta Capital Management

49) Bloom Tree Partners

50) Cadian Capital Management

51) Matrix Capital Management

52) Senvest Partners

53) Falcon Edge Capital Management

54) Park West Asset Management

55) Melvin Capital Partners

56) Owl Creek Asset Management

57) Portolan Capital Management

58) Proxima Capital Management

59) Tourbillon Capital Partners

60) Impala Asset Management

61) Valinor Management

62) Marshall Wace

63) Light Street Capital Management

64) Rock Springs Capital Management

65) Rubric Capital Management

66) Whale Rock Capital

67) Skye Global Management

68) York Capital Management

69) Zweig-Dimenna Associates

Top Sector and Specialized Funds

I like tracking activity funds that specialize in real estate, biotech, healthcare, retail and other sectors like mid, small and micro caps. Here are some funds worth tracking closely.

1) Avoro Capital Advisors (formerly Venbio Select Advisors)

2) Baker Brothers Advisors

3) Perceptive Advisors

4) Broadfin Capital

5) Healthcor Management

6) Orbimed Advisors

7) Deerfield Management

8) BB Biotech AG

9) Birchview Capital

10) Ghost Tree Capital

11) Sectoral Asset Management

12) Oracle Investment Management

13) Palo Alto Investors

14) Consonance Capital Management

15) Camber Capital Management

16) Redmile Group

17) RTW Investments

18) Bridger Capital Management

19) Boxer Capital

20) Bridgeway Capital Management

21) Cohen & Steers

22) Cardinal Capital Management

23) Munder Capital Management

24) Diamondhill Capital Management 

25) Cortina Asset Management

26) Geneva Capital Management

27) Criterion Capital Management

28) Daruma Capital Management

29) 12 West Capital Management

30) RA Capital Management

31) Sarissa Capital Management

32) Rock Springs Capital Management

33) Senzar Asset Management

34) Southeastern Asset Management

35) Sphera Funds

36) Tang Capital Management

37) Thomson Horstmann & Bryant

38) Ecor1 Capital

39) Opaleye Management

40) NEA Management Company

41) Great Point Partners

42) Tekla Capital Management

43) Van Berkom and Associates

Mutual Funds and Asset Managers

Mutual funds and large asset managers are not hedge funds but their sheer size makes them important players. Some asset managers have excellent track records. Below, are a few funds investors track closely.

1) Fidelity

2) BlackRock Inc

3) Wellington Management

4) AQR Capital Management

5) Sands Capital Management

6) Brookfield Asset Management

7) Dodge & Cox

8) Eaton Vance Management

9) Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co.

10) Geode Capital Management

11) Goldman Sachs Group

12) JP Morgan Chase& Co.

13) Morgan Stanley

14) Manulife Asset Management

15) RCM Capital Management

16) UBS Asset Management

17) Barclays Global Investor

18) Epoch Investment Partners

19) Thornburg Investment Management

20) Kornitzer Capital Management

21) Batterymarch Financial Management

22) Tocqueville Asset Management

23) Neuberger Berman

24) Winslow Capital Management

25) Herndon Capital Management

26) Artisan Partners

27) Great West Life Insurance Management

28) Lazard Asset Management 

29) Janus Capital Management

30) Franklin Resources

31) Capital Research Global Investors

32) T. Rowe Price

33) First Eagle Investment Management

34) Frontier Capital Management

35) Akre Capital Management

36) Brandywine Global

37) Brown Capital Management

38) Victory Capital Management

39) Orbis

40) ARK Investment Management

Canadian Asset Managers

Here are a few Canadian funds I track closely:

1) Addenda Capital

2) Letko, Brosseau and Associates

3) Fiera Capital Corporation

4) West Face Capital

5) Hexavest

6) 1832 Asset Management

7) Jarislowsky, Fraser

8) Connor, Clark & Lunn Investment Management

9) TD Asset Management

10) CIBC Asset Management

11) Beutel, Goodman & Co

12) Greystone Managed Investments

13) Mackenzie Financial Corporation

14) Great West Life Assurance Co

15) Guardian Capital

16) Scotia Capital

17) AGF Investments

18) Montrusco Bolton

19) CI Investments

20) Venator Capital Management

21) Van Berkom and Associates

22) Formula Growth

23) Hillsdale Investment Management

Pension Funds, Endowment Funds, and Sovereign Wealth Funds

Last but not least, I the track activity of some pension funds, endowment and sovereign wealth funds. I like to focus on funds that invest in top hedge funds and have internal alpha managers. Below, a sample of pension and endowment funds I track closely:

1) Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMco)

2) Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan

3) Canada Pension Plan Investment Board

4) Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec

5) OMERS Administration Corp.

6) British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (BCI)

7) Public Sector Pension Investment Board (PSP Investments)

8) PGGM Investments

9) APG All Pensions Group

10) California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS)

11) California State Teachers Retirement System (CalSTRS)

12) New York State Common Fund

13) New York State Teachers Retirement System

14) State Board of Administration of Florida Retirement System

15) State of Wisconsin Investment Board

16) State of New Jersey Common Pension Fund

17) Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio

18) STRS Ohio

19) Teacher Retirement System of Texas

20) Virginia Retirement Systems

21) TIAA CREF investment Management

22) Harvard Management Co.

23) Norges Bank

24) Nordea Investment Management

25) Korea Investment Corp.

26) Singapore Temasek Holdings 

27) Yale Endowment Fund

Below, CNBC's Dominic Chu joins "Closing Bell" to discuss financials in the Berkshire Hathaway 13F filing. Is there a reason why Buffett dumoed so many US banks?I think he sees low growth and low rates are here to stay and hedged this deflation call with a stake in Barrick Gold.

More importantly, Howard Marks, co-founder and co-chairman at Oaktree Capital, the largest investor in distressed securities worldwide, warns the Federal Reserve and US Treasury can't keep stimulating the economy forever. He speaks with Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker on "Bloomberg Markets."

Ivanhoé Cambridge and LOGOS Acquire Broadmeadows

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CDPQ's real estate subsidiary, Ivanhoé Cambridge, put out a statement stating along with LOGOS, it acquired a strategic development site in Broadmeadows, Melbourne:

Ivanhoé Cambridge and LOGOS are pleased to announce they have entered into an agreement to acquire a strategic development site in Broadmeadows, one of Melbourne’s key infill northern industrial suburbs. Ivanhoé Cambridge plans to develop the site into a $230 million logistics estate with LOGOS to act as the manager and developer.

Located at 120 Northcorp Boulevard in Broadmeadows, the property offers excellent access to Melbourne’s key transport network including the Western Ring Road, Tullamarine Freeway and the Hume Highway interchange, as well as the Victorian Government’s planned North East Link. Leveraging this premier location, LOGOS will transform the former Woolworths distribution centre to deliver over 120,000sqm of modern, high-quality logistics assets within the renamed LOGOS Broadmeadows Logistics Estate.

Ivanhoé Cambridge’s Senior Vice President for Asia Pacific, George Agethen, said: “This transaction continues our strategy for logistics in the APAC region and our partnership with LOGOS. We remain focused on assembling a sizeable portfolio in Sydney and Melbourne, which has shown remarkable resilience through the COVID-19 pandemic. We are confident that we will deliver an environmentally leading Estate that will meet the demands of our users for the long-term.”

LOGOS’ Head of Australia and New Zealand, Darren Searle, said: “This is a strategic acquisition for our business as a number of our existing customers have been looking to expand into the north of Melbourne, an area which has long experienced limited supply of prime grade logistics assets, for some time.”

The Estate, which is targeting to commence construction in early 2021, will be focused on supporting the core logistics sectors of e-commerce, distribution, food and cold storage. Warehouses within the Estate, ranging from 15,000sqm to 50,000sqm, are now available for lease.

“We look forward to bringing our global design and development expertise to develop this state-of-the-art property. The Estate is targeted to achieve a 5 Star Green Star rating in line with our commitment to our customers and capital partners in delivering on our obligations towards creating a sustainable future,” Mr Searle added.

The transaction was brokered by CBRE’s Chris O’Brien and Daniel Eramo with the site acquired by a LOGOS venture on behalf of Ivanhoé Cambridge.

This acquisition aligns with Ivanhoé Cambridge’s portfolio repositioning with a strong accent on industrial and logistics assets on the five continents where the company has investment platforms.

LOGOS’ Asia Pacific portfolio comprises 100 logistics estates across nine countries with AUM of approximately $13.8 billion. LOGOS counts some of the world’s largest fund managers as its shareholders, including ARA Asset Management and Ivanhoé Cambridge.

In terms of portfolio repositioning, the key passage in this statement is at the end:

This acquisition aligns with Ivanhoé Cambridge’s portfolio repositioning with a strong accent on industrial and logistics assets on the five continents where the company has investment platforms.

Recall, last month I discussed how CDPQ appointed a new Head of Liquid Markets, Vincent Delisle, and mentioned this:

[...] Ivanhoé Cambridge, CDPQ's massive real estate subsidiary, recently hired New York based Raider Hill Advisors to help it with its troubled Retail portfolio (La Presse discussed this here and I wish them a lot of luck restructuring these assets).

I've already gone through Ivanhoé Cambridge's "99 problems" and won't go over them again here.

Suffice to say that for legacy reasons, there was way too much exposure to Retail in their portfolio and Nathalie Palladitcheff', Ivanhoé Cambridge's President and CEO, took the difficult decision to cut down the staffing in the Retail portfolio, reduce their exposure there, and take some major writedowns there which they can hopefully write up when the health crisis subsides and the cycle turns back up.

On top of this, there has been a concerted effort to focus more on logistics properties in North America, Europe, Asia and emerging markets to play the secular trend of the rise of e-commerce.

In this respect, Ivanhoé Cambridge is paying catch-up to CPP Investments and other large peers which are more exposed to Industrial properties.

For example, in December 2017, CPP Investments (CPPIB) invested HK$1.94 billion (C$320 million) to acquire an interest in Goodman Hong Kong Logistics Partnership (GHKLP or Partnership):

GHKLP is one of Goodman’s flagship logistics partnerships, with the largest portfolio of high quality, modern logistics properties in Hong Kong.  

he Partnership has seen strong performance since its inception in 2006, with positive economic and market fundamentals such as limited supply of quality industrial real estate in Hong Kong combined with growing demand from international retailers and distribution companies, supporting consistent market outperformance. 

“There is tremendous opportunity for growth across the logistics sector in Hong Kong, which benefits from growing domestic consumption and the city’s strategic position as a gateway into China,” said Jimmy Phua, Managing Director and Head of Real Estate Investments Asia, CPPIB. “We are pleased to deepen our excellent global relationship with Goodman through this investment in GHKLP, while at the same time increasing our exposure to the fast growing logistics sector,” he added.

At 30 September 2017, GHKLP had total assets of HK$28.7 billion invested across 13 assets, including a 50% interest in Goodman Interlink that is co-owned with CPPIB under a 50/50 JV.

“E-commerce will be one of the major drivers of growth in the logistics sector in Asia and Hong Kong is in a prime geographic position to benefit as more players enter the market,” Mr. Phua added. 

That was 2017, fast forward to 2020 in the midst of a global pandemic and logistics properties all over the world are more in demand than ever.

Now, to my surprise, I went over CPP Investments' results in detail and couldn't find a detailed breakdown of sector exposure for Real Estate and Infrastructure assets. 

I'm sure they are available somewhere but I know for a fact that logistics properties have been an important part of their thematic investments for years.

Are logistic properties overvalued now that we are in a pandemic? No doubt but it's important to note that we aren't in a logistics bubble, at least not yet, and large pensions investing in these properties are doing so with experienced partners like LOGOS, Goodman and others. 

They're also investing for the long run, not looking to flip these investments like a real estate speculator high on crack, so over the long run, these properties will benefit from the rise in e-commerce.

And Ivanhoé Cambridge and LOGOS didn't pay an obscene amount for developing the site in Broadmeadows. Marc Pallisco of Real Estate Source Australia reported on the deal with the numbers:

Growthpoint Properties Australia has decided against redeveloping a 25 hectare Broadmeadows distribution centre vacated in February by Woolworths – instead selling it to a joint venture partnership which will.

LOGOS and Ivanhoe Cambridge are paying $50.2 million for 120 Northcorp Boulevard, in a deal scheduled to settle in 10 days.

The asset includes multi-connected warehouses, truck parking and several undeveloped tracts including a corner abutting the train line between Gowrie and Upfield stations.

The incoming owners have earmarked the holding, 17 kilometres north of Melbourne, for a $230m business park.

Branded LOGOS Broadmeadows Logistics Estate, it will comprise 120,000 sqm of warehousing available for food and cold storage, ecommerce and distribution.

LOGOS will be the developer and manager.

CBRE’s Daniel Eramao, Chris O'Brien, Rorry Hilton and Ben Hegerty represented Growthpoint.

Pandemic made us review options, including divestment: Growthpoint

The vendor will use sale proceeds to repay debt.

“Prior to the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus, [we] had been progressing development plans for this asset,” a company statement said.

The ex-Woolworths distribution centre contains several interconnected warehouses.

“However, as part of its response to the pandemic, Growthpoint delayed all non-essential capital projects and decided to review its options for this site, including divestment”.

Managing director Timothy Collyer added “after reviewing our options…we decided to sell this asset as undertaking a lengthy development project was outside of our risk and return appetite in the current operating environment”.

The new LOGOS Broadmeadows Logistics Estate

The Broadmeadows property is a risk and return match, however, for LOGOS – which just last week, with MaxCap, acquired a c$70m distribution centre under construction in Epping, adding it had been looking for opportunities in the city’s north “for years”.

That asset, branded LOGOS Epping Logistics Estate, is 10 kms east of 120 Northcorp Blvd.

Ivanhoe Cambridge’s senior vice president, Asia Pacific, George Agethen, said its investment “continues our strategy for logistics in the APAC region and our partnership with LOGOS” .

“We remain focused on assembling a sizeable portfolio in Sydney and Melbourne, which have shown remarkable resilience through the COVID-19 pandemic,” the executive added.

“We are confident that we will deliver an environmentally leading estate that will meet the demands of our users for the long-term.”

Broadmeadows property to get makeover for 21st

The Broadmeadows property was purpose built for Woolworths in 1999.

It contains 60,044 sqm of area within several interconnecting warehouses, accessed by 21 B-double finger docks and 40 recessed loading ones.

A two level office also forms part of the design as does 344 car parks.

There are several undeveloped tracts including a high-profile corner abutting the train line between Gowrie and Upfield stations.

In 2017, Growthpoint banked $90.75m selling a Woolworths-leased distribution centre and Victorian head office, in Mulgrave, to local private investor Harry Stamoulis.

Our customers have been looking north with us: LOGOS

LOGOS’ head of Australia and New Zealand, Darren Searle, said the Broadmeadows acquisition is strategic “as a number of our existing customers have been looking to expand into the north of Melbourne, an area which has long experienced limited supply of prime grade logistics assets, for some time.”

The Northcorp Blvd estate, construction of which is expected to begin next year, is already seeking tenants, the landlord penning configurations between 15,000-50,000 sqm.

“We look forward to bringing our global design and development expertise to develop this state-of-the-art property,” the executive added.

LOGOS Asia Pacific’s portfolio, some 100 logistics assets in nine countries, is estimated to be worth about $13.8 billion.

ARA Asset Management, like Ivanhoe Cambridge, is a major shareholder.

The property is about 17 kilometres north of Melbourne.
The site is near the Metropolitan Ring Road which will hook into the proposed North East link.
LOGOS intends to re-purpose much of the existing automation.

As you can see, there is a lot of thought going into the development of this site and LOGOS is going to be an excellent partner to develop and manage it.

Why did Growthpoint Properties sell? Simply put:

Managing director Timothy Collyer added “after reviewing our options…we decided to sell this asset as undertaking a lengthy development project was outside of our risk and return appetite in the current operating environment”.

It wasn't in their  plans but is in the risk and return appetite of a large global pension with deep pockets and a much longer investment horizon.

It also warms my heart to read about a successful Greek-Australian property investor like Harry Stamoulis:

Harry Stamoulis is the Head of Stamoulis Property Group, founded by his father, and together with his sister Melina he currently runs the company. Stamoulis Property Group owns land and property in Australia and Greece. The Stamoulis family ranks among the wealthiest Greek families in Australia and during the latest years they have also achieved an important ranking among the top wealthiest Australians.

Harry’s father Spyros Stamoulis had origins in Epirus and relocated to Australia at the age of 12 to later build a financial empire. He’s also the founder of the Melbourne’s Hellenic Museum.

The Stamoulis family’s worth is estimated at $540 million and derives from the refreshment company Gold Metal, founded by the ever memorable Spyros Stamoulis. He sold the company in 2004 and later created a real estate and investment business. Harry took control of the business after his father decease in 2007.

Recently, he sold his luxury loft at the Royal Domain Tower for $13.3 million. The group has also developed the Vogue offices and stores compound of 30.000 square meters in the suburb of South Yarra in Melbourne. The company’s near future agenda also involves the development of a large residence compound on a total budget of $750 million.

Moreover, Harry Stamoulis is the owner of 3XY Greek radio station, Hellas television channel and Ta Nea newspaper in Melbourne.

The Stamoulis family also owns the island of Nausika (Oxia) in the Ionian Sea.

Outside of Greece, Melbourne has the most Greeks of any city in the world.

Here in Canada, we also have a some very successful Greek-Canadian real estate investors like Sam Kolias, chairman and CEO of Boardwalk REIT, and Andreas Apostolopoulos, a Greek-Canadian billionaire businessman, primarily concentrated on real estate investment and redevelopment. He is best known for his ownership of the Silverdome in Pontiac, Michigan (the Apostolopoulos family are one of the richest Greek families in North America and the richest Greek family in Canada).

Anyway, it looks like Ivanhoé Cambridge is on the right track repositioning its massive real estate portfolio away from Retail into Industrial (logistics) properties.
 
It's a slow process but Nathalie Palladitcheff and her team are executing on their strategic plan and I have no doubt Ivanhoé Cambridge will emerge a lot stronger three to five years down the road.
 
Below, CGTNBizTalk spoke with Bruce Flatt, CEO of Brookfield Asset Management. I posted this last week but take the time to watch this interview, lots of great insights from one of the best investors in the world.
 
Update: Justinas Baltrusaitis of Buy Shares sent me an article he wrote showing leading logistic companies’ market cap rockets by 83% to over $2tn amid pandemic:

Data presented by Buy Shares indicates that the cumulative market capitalization of leading ten selected publicly-traded logistic companies grew by 83.27% on a Year-to-Date basis. By the close of markets on August 24th, 2020 the companies had a total capitalization of  $2.25 trillion.

Market cap grows by over $1 trillion in eight months

On January 1st, the ten firms have a cumulative market capitalization of  $1.23 trillion representing. The capitalization grew by  $1.02 trillion within eight months.

Japan-based SG Holding had the highest market capitalization at $1.56 trillion as of August 24th,  a 100.05% growth from $781.3 billion on January 1st. XPO Logistics has the least market capitalization at $7.85 billion, representing a growth of 7.09% from January 1st.

An analysis of the data shows that the surge in market capitalization which correlated with the global coronavirus pandemic. According to the research report:

“With most people staying at home, they turned on logistic companies for the delivery of essential supplies. When the pandemic broke out, stocks for logistic companies plunged. However, they later rebounded thanks to their role in home deliveries that were boosted with a surge in e-commerce. For example in China, when the government imposed lockdowns, only logistics and delivery companies were allowed to carry out the delivery. The strategic role the delivery companies played during the pandemic contributed immensely to the surge in market capitalization of the selected companies.”

The full story, statistics and information can be found here.
No doubt, the pandemic has inflated the value of publicly traded logistics companies but they also benefited from the massive liquidity injection from global central banks. There is a lot of beta in these stocks. Don't confuse private logistics deals with publicly traded logistics stocks but it goes to show you just how hot this sector has become.

Jo Taylor Discusses OTPP's Mid-Year Results

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 Ontario Teachers’ put out a statement stating net assets total $204.7 billion at mid-year 2020:

Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board (Ontario Teachers’) today announced its net assets totaled $204.7 billion as of June 30, 2020. The total-fund net loss was 0.4% for the first six months of the year.

“The first half of this year has brought significant challenges for investors, with financial markets experiencing unprecedented volatility due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which in turn has had a devastating impact on the global economy, as well as companies and communities around the world,” said Jo Taylor, President and Chief Executive Officer. “Our diversified and high-quality portfolio has so far been quite resilient, highlighting the benefits of our balanced capital allocations and long-term investment approach. That said, we expect this pandemic to have lasting repercussions, and we want to remain vigilant and agile until the full impact can be established.”

“In the years before the crisis we had positioned the portfolio more defensively, including raising our exposure to fixed income and gold, employing a hedge against a downturn in equities and fortifying our liquidity position. These moves provided stability and helped offset losses experienced by our private assets that were disproportionately affected by COVID-19 such as airports, energy and retail real estate,” said Ziad Hindo, Chief Investment Officer. “The unprecedented volatility and dislocations in the markets provided us with an opportunity to rebalance the portfolio to position it for long-term success.”

Mid-year results provide a snapshot of performance over a six-month period, while long-term returns provide a true measure of the effectiveness of Ontario Teachers’ investment strategy. As at June 30, 2020, Ontario Teachers’ had an annualized total-fund net return of 9.5% since inception in 1990. The five- and 10-year net returns, also as at June 30, 2020, were 6.2% and 9.6%, respectively.

“The shock COVID-19 has delivered to economies around the world has been severe, but we are confident that our strong foundation and long-term investment strategy will see us through this turbulent period,” added Hindo. “Given our strong liquidity and access to capital we are well placed to pursue attractive investment opportunities as they emerge.”

 

Investing globally is an essential element of Ontario Teachers’ investment strategy and ability to meet its long-term investment objectives. During the first six months of the year the organization was able to successfully secure attractive investment opportunities in North America, Europe, the Middle East and Asia-Pacific. It also announced the appointment of London-based Karen Frank as Senior Managing Director of Equities, and our first Singapore-based employee, Bruce Crane, as Managing Director, Infrastructure & Natural Resources, Asia Pacific, both of whom will join the organization in the coming months.

Ontario Teachers’ invests in 35 global currencies and in more than 50 countries but reports its assets and liabilities in Canadian dollars. In the first half of 2020, currency had a positive 0.5% impact on the total fund, resulting in a gain of $1.2 billion that was mainly driven by a stronger U.S. dollar relative to the Canadian dollar.

Ontario Teachers’ took decisive action to protect its employees and communities from the spreading pandemic. By mid-March the organization had fully restricted all business travel, asked members not to visit its offices in person and most employees began working remotely. Despite the major changes, Ontario Teachers’ core investment and member services businesses were able to continue operating normally.

“I want to thank the entire team for their tremendous efforts during the COVID-19 pandemic. They have demonstrated an incredible adaptability and positive spirit while continuing to fulfill their duties on behalf of our members,” concluded Taylor.

About Ontario Teachers’
The Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan Board (Ontario Teachers') is the administrator of Canada's largest single-profession pension plan, with $204.7 billion in net assets (all figures at June 30, 2020 unless noted). It holds a diverse global portfolio of assets, approximately 80% of which is managed in-house, and has earned an annual total-fund net return of 9.5% since the plan's founding in 1990. Ontario Teachers' is an independent organization headquartered in Toronto. Its Asia-Pacific region office is located in Hong Kong and its Europe, Middle East & Africa region office is in London. The defined-benefit plan, which is fully funded as at January 1, 2020, invests and administers the pensions of the province of Ontario's 329,000 active and retired teachers. For more information, visit otpp.com and follow us on Twitter @OtppInfo.

You can read the financial statements here.

Earlier today, I had a chance to catch up with Jo Taylor to discuss OTPP's mid-year results. 

I want to begin by thanking him for taking some time to speak to me on short notice and also thank Dan Madge for setting this call up. 

I began by asking Jo how it has been adapting to to the pandemic. He told me just like other pensions, early on a decision was made to ensure the health and safety of OTPP's employees all over the world.

"Our employees in Toronto are all working remotely. We will bring some back later this fall taking a staggered approach and on a voluntary basis depending on how the health situation develops. Our Hong Kong office is closed and in London, it's difficult because most employees take public transit into work."

In other words, it's not easy to open up all offices at once and for the foreseeable future, they will be working remotely. 

He said they will soon open up their office in Singapore and  Bruce Crane, Managing Director, Infrastructure & Natural Resources, Asia Pacific, will be based there.

We then got into mid-year results and he told me going into 2020, they had raised their allocation to fixed income and were positioned more defensively. 

He said the results were flat for the first six months and that proved to be very good given the damage the pandemic caused in public and private markets.

"The focus remains on international expansion, especially in Asia, investing alongside our partners and finding disruptive companies there and elsewhere."

I noticed the bond allocation was significantly cut as at June 30 and it was much higher at the end of 2019 mostly owing to repos where they leverage their fixed income portfolio. 

Jo told me they trade bonds depending on where yields are but given rates are at record low levels, they will need to focus on Real Assets and some other ways to make up for the low yields on bonds.

In terms of private markets, he told me OTPP has suffered in some areas (Retail real estate assets, transportation infrastructure assets and some private companies) but they value these assets very conservatively (I suspect they will take some writedowns in these assets in 2020 as will other large Canadian pensions).

But Jo also said they have ample liquidity to provide support to companies who need it in 2021 and even 2022 if needed. 

I told him there is a dichotomy going on in public markets where a few mega cap tech companies are leading the S&P 500 higher while most of the market doesn't participate.  

Not surprisingly, pensions and well balanced mutual funds are trailing the market compared to hedge funds taking concentrated tech bets

The other thing I noted is how the massive expansion of the Fed and other global central banks' balance sheet is fueling this liquidity bubble benefiting tech and creating a dichotomy between public and private markets.

Basically, central banks have created a liquidity bubble which favors tech stocks over private equity, real estate and infrastructure.

Jo told me this presents a challenge when some of their benchmarks are made up of the S&P500 but over the long run, he still believes the value add will be in private markets.

This is true, I'm just observing that in the short-term, most pensions are trailing their public and private market benchmarks because of this liquidity bubble which is benefiting a handful of mega cap tech shares.

What else? Jo told me they are focusing on disruptive technologies/ companies.

He specifically mentioned their investment in KRY, Europe’s largest digital healthcare provider, where they invested in a series C to help the company raise US$155 (€140) million in order to help the business accelerate its ambitious growth plans in Europe and transform the way millions of patients access health services in a digital age.

He also mentioned their partnership with see Sidewalk Infrastructure Partners (SIP) which recently announced the first phase of a project that will bring a first-of-its-kind connected and autonomous vehicle corridor to the State of Michigan:

Sidewalk Infrastructure Partners (SIP) is building the future of infrastructure. Today, we are thrilled to announce the first phase of a first-of-its-kind connected and autonomous vehicle (CAV) corridor in partnership with Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and the State of Michigan, the Michigan Department of Transportation, the Michigan Economic Development Corporation, and the City of Detroit.

Cavnue, a company launched by Sidewalk Infrastructure Partners and announced today, was selected to lead the project in partnership with the Michigan Department of Transportation. Cavnue’s mission is to build the world’s most advanced roads, that are safer, offer greater throughput, improve access to affordable and high-quality public transit and shared mobility, and enable more efficient movement of goods.

The first phase of the project will test technology and explore the viability of a more than 40-mile driverless vehicle corridor between Downtown Detroit and Ann Arbor. We are thrilled to work with initial project partners the University of Michigan, Ford, and the American Center for Mobility, and stakeholders and communities throughout Michigan as the connected corridor project moves forward.

What else? He mentioned OTPP's investment in SpaceX and other exciting areas like their recent investment in Epic games, operator of Fortnite, one of the world’s largest games with over 350 million accounts and 2.5 billion friend connections.

We didn't get into that investment in detail but I noted today that a judge, , through a temporary restraining order, blocked Apple’s move to revoke Epic Games’ developer accounts.

I noted in a world of low growth, OTPP and other large pensions have no choice but to invest in disruptive companies but they need to do so carefully and make sure these investments are scalable or else it won't move the needle over the long run.

Jo agreed but he said OTPP's investments in traditional businesses will continue and provide support to invest in and capitalize in disruptive companies.

Recall and earlier conversation I had with OTPP's CIO Ziad Hindo where he told me they are looking for cross pollination where investments in disruptive technologies benefits their entire portfolio. 

In terms of funded status,  Jo told me OTPP has an $11 billion surplus and the plan's stakeholders filed their actuarial report in January and there will be no changes to the contribution rate or benefits over the next three years.

I ended the conversation by commending Jo on the steps OTPP is taking to improve diversity & inclusion at the organization, referring to the pledge they signed to be part of the #100blackinterns movement:

Jo told me they are looking to broaden diversity & inclusion beyond "just gender" and want to hire and mentor these interns so they have opportunities to succeed within the organization.

"At Teachers', we are always looking to do the right thing, not just at our organization but in our investee companies."

I couldn't agree more and told him to continue pushing the boundaries on diversity & inclusion.

Lastly, I asked Jo how this pandemic has impacted him personally.

"Well, I am not traveling as much and I used to travel often. I'm taking advantage however to recharge and the pandemic has put more of a pressure on all of OTPP's senior managers to communicate often and effectively to all our employees. Communication is critical during these times."

He also added: "Doing due diligence on a company is far more challenging when you can't walk the floors with their management to see their operations."

He's right on all fronts, communication is critical and due diligence is a lot harder during these unprecedented times.

It is also worth noting that OTPP's CFO, David McGraw, announced he will be retiring from Ontario Teachers’ in summer 2021 after 16 years with the organization. 

 

Jo Taylor said: “David has had a substantial impact across the fund and played a key role in helping us become a world-class pension plan. He has also enabled the business by creating strong oversight and governance processes and using analytics and insights to enhance our financial decision-making tools and capabilities.”

Once again, I thank Jo for taking some time to chat with me earlier today and look forward to our next conversation.

Below, take the time to listen to Beth Tyndall, Chief People Officer, Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan and Glain Roberts-McCabe, President, The Roundtable discuss how to keep your head above water during times of extreme uncertainty. Very good conversation.

Will Gatwick's Woes Strike Canadian Pensions?

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Rob O'Connor of Infrastructure Intelligence reports that Gatwick cuts 600 jobs after 80% drop in passenger numbers:

Gatwick Airport has announced 600 job cuts after an 80% fall in passenger numbers due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The proposed job cuts come as part of the UK's second largest airport’s plans for a significant restructure across its business, designed to further reduce operating and staff costs in light of the dramatic impact Covid-19 has had on its passenger and air traffic numbers. 

The new proposals could result in the region of 600 job roles being removed from across the business, which is approximately 24% of the current number of employees. The company will now enter into a formal consultation process with employees.

Compared to this time last year, the airport is operating at around 20% of its capacity and therefore still has over 75% of its staff on the UK government’s Job Retention Scheme, which is due to end in October. Current traffic and passenger volumes are such that Gatwick is currently operating from just its north terminal. 

In August, usually one of the airport’s busiest months, passenger numbers are over 80% down when compared with the numbers of passengers Gatwick saw that month in 2019. The company took rapid action to protect the airport back in March to preserve as many jobs as it could by reducing costs, managing cash outflows, and securing a £300m bank loan.

Stewart Wingate, Gatwick Airport chief executive officer, said: “If anyone is in any doubt about the devastating impact Covid-19 has had on the aviation and travel industry then today’s news we have shared with our staff, regarding the proposed job losses, is a stark reminder. We are in ongoing talks with government to see what sector specific support can be put in place for the industry at this time, alongside mechanisms which will give our passengers greater certainty on where and when they can safely travel abroad. This support will not only help Gatwick but the wider regional economy which relies on the airport. 

“I want to take this opportunity to thank all of our staff, those who have worked tirelessly to keep Gatwick open throughout the pandemic and those who have had to remain on furlough, for their dedicated tenacity, professionalism and team spirit. We will continue to do all we can to preserve as many jobs as possible.

“Gatwick will recover from this pandemic and we will emerge from the restructuring we are proposing a fitter and stronger organisation which is best placed to offer our passengers and our airlines a modern and innovative airport, ready for growth.”

A bit of interesting history on London Gatwick Airport, the UK’s second largest airport.

In April 2009, major Canadian pension funds were lining up to buy it:

Major Canadian and British funds are understood to be one step closer in their rivalry to purchase London's Gatwick airport after the Competition Commission ordered the British Airports Authority (BAA) to sell three of its airports within the next two years.

The Competition Commission announced its final decision at the end of March and said separating BAA's airports - Gatwick and Stansted and either Edinburgh or Glasgow - under different ownerships was the only way to address the lack of competition, improve the quality of service and speed up investment spending in the airports for passengers and airlines.

Christopher Clarke, chairman of the BAA Airports inquiry, said: "We recognise that in using our powers in this way, we will have a significant impact on BAA's business. However, given the nature and scale of the competition problems we have found, we do not consider that alternative measures, such as the sale of only one of the London airports or greater regulation, will suffice."

BAA, which is partly owned by Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, put Gatwick airport up for sale last year and hopes to sell it this year.

Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) and Borealis, the infrastructure branch of the Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System (OMERS), are all reportedly participating in consortiums bidding for Gatwick airport, which is hoped to sell for around £2bn (€2.1bn).

The three consortiums still in the running for Gatwick include Global Infrastructure Partners, Lysander Investment Group and Manchester Airport Group.


The Manchester Group is understood to have called on one of its key investors, the Greater Manchester Pension Fund, to get involved in the deal to buy Gatwick, though officials at GMPF were unavailable for comment at the time of publication.

A consortium made up of the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, the Canada Pension Plan and 3i Group withdrew their offer last month, saying the price tag was too high.

Final bids for Gatwick airport were originally due 31 March 2009, however, the Competition Commission has extended the deadline until the end of April 2009.

The Competition Commission published a report in august 2008 revealing competition problems at BAA's seven UK airports - Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, Southampton, Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen.

The report said BAA's common ownership was the main cause, but also argued there were also problems stemming from the regulatory system and government policy.

Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) ended up winning that bid.

In 2018, CPP Investments and a group of investors made another unsuccessful bid to buy a£3bn stake inLondon Gatwick Airport in an effort to buy out Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), Gatwick's biggest shareholder since 2009.

In May 2019, Vinci Airports, the world’s leading private airport operator, bought a controlling stake (50,01%) in London Gatwick Airport. The remainder is owned by a consortium of investors and managed by Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), who have operated Gatwick since 2009.

In July 2019, I wrote a comment on how CalPERS struck gold in Gatwick Airport stating:

Gatwick has been an incredible investment for CalPERS even after accounting for fees it paid out to Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP).

Unlike CalPERS, most of Canada's large pensions buy direct stakes in infrastructure assets through their specialized platforms -- wholly owned subsidiaries (companies) that manage specific infrastructure assets (like airports, ports, toll roads, etc.)

And Canadian pensions have also made great returns on airports. For example, Ontario Teachers' made a boat load on Brussels, Copenhagen, Bristol and Birmingham airports, all of which were marked in the last three years at materially higher values.

But now that airports have been re-rated and are considered core infrastructure assets, the returns going forward are likely to be much lower.

In fact, one expert told me: "Airports used to be on the periphery of what was considered infrastructure and now they are viewed as core and the valuations and expected returns reflect this."


Still, a strong global economy, more baby boomers traveling, the rise of the middle class in emerging markets like India and China, all bode well for air travel in general and that should support strong airport revenues for years to come.

Are valuations stretched and is competition fierce? You bet. Also, as the article above indicates, there are no airports for sale in the United States and they infrequently change hands overseas.

This is the basic problem, lack of supply and fierce competition are driving prices higher and higher and that will impact returns going forward. 

This is where Canadian pensions with specialized airport platforms have an advantage over others who do not have dedicated resources to manage airports properly, adding value-add in every aspect of an airport.

And fast forward to today, Gatwick and pretty much all major airports all over the world are operating at 10, 20 or 30% capacity if they're lucky and investors in these assets are bearing the brunt of the drop in revenues as the pandemic has significantly impacted demand for air travel.

Airports are important to Canadian pensions. For example, who can forget London City Airport. In February 2016, AIMCo, OTPP and OMERS led a group of investors that bought that airport at a steep premium:

According to people with knowledge of the matter, the winning bid, from Alberta Investment Management Corp., Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan and OMERS, is about 44 times London City’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization of 45.8 million pounds in 2014, the latest year with available data. No price was given when the deal was announced Friday.

The average multiple for airport deals in 2014 was 17, including debt, according to aviation consults ICFI. Investment funds are increasingly willing to pay top dollar for assets offering stable long-term returns after years of low interest rates.

When you pay top dollar for an airport asset, you'd better work that asset hard to generate added value over the long run and I remember a lot of experts back then were telling me the premium was "insane".

By contrast, in May 2013, Hochtief sold its 40% stakes of Athens International Airport to PSP Investments for 1.1 billion euros. 

I thought that was a great investment, reasonably priced. I love that airport and tourism in Greece has ballooned every year since then until this year as tourism is down significantly:

The Ending Summer of tourism for Greece is approaching fast with September on the horizon and opening the country to visitors in July has turned out to be a dud, with far fewer numbers than expected and disappointing revenues, people scared off by COVID-19 and restrictive health measures.

The President of the Greek Tourism Confederation (SETE) is asking the government to extend measures such as subsidizing employers’ social security contributions for employees and allowing tourism businesses to suspend contracts, said Kathimerini.

While eager for tourists to get the economy going again to offset losses from a COVID-19 lockdown, Greece barred those from hard-hit critically important countries such as the United States and Russia and restrictive health measures put in place proved such a deterrent that arrivals were way down.

The tourism group said it hoped visitors would bring in as much as 5 billion euros ($5.9 billion,) a huge drop from 2019's more than 18.5 billion euros ($21.82 billion) in another record year brought to a halt by the pandemic.

Instead, only about 3.5 billion euros ($4.13 billion) is expected and the industry didn't hire 160,000 seasonal workers, adding to the unemployment rate that's expected to reach levels unseen since a near decade-long crisis began in 2010.

Tourism is Greece's biggest revenue engine and brings in as much as 18-20 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 169.56 billion euros ($200.3 billion) and in 2019 some 33 million visitors spent 18.5 billion euros ($21.85 billion.)

But the second wave of the Coronavirus has dampened moods and hopes tourists would come, Greece relying on a 32-billion euro ($37.8 billion) aid package of loans and grants from the European Union to offset losses.

Adding to the woes is other countries, such as Norway, saying Greece is not a safe destination although the United Kingdom pulled back on doing the same, which means British tourists in Greece won't have to quarantine on return.

Greece is not a safe destination? Rubbish! Trust me, I'd rather be in Greece right now than any other country even if coronavirus cases are creeping up there and the Turks are up to no good again (free travel tip: September is by far the most beautiful time to visit Greece after the mad summer herd leaves and don't be a fish, there are plenty of other islands apart from Mykonos and Santorini!).

Anyway, the point of my comment is airports have been hit hard, all airports and pensions who paid a lot of money to acquire big stakes in some airports are seeing significant drop in asset values as revenues get hit.

In general, transportation infrastructure assets are getting whacked hard because of the pandemic and that's to be expected. Zero Hedge posted a comment today on how New York's MTA is losing an astounding $200 million a week.

No surprise, these assets and other private market assets (like shopping malls) need volume (riders, shoppers, air travelers) to generate the required revenues for their owners. They can't operate in a zero revenue world, not for long at least.

What about the $3 trillion increase in the Fed's balance sheet? Yeah, great for tech stocks and speculators betting that tech stocks only go up, but it does nothing to ignite demand for airlines and cruise ships during a global pandemic.

Just like the great FAAMG divide, there's a huge divide within private markets and between public and private markets (to be more precise, between tech stocks and private markets as most stocks still registering losses for the year).

Some segments in private markets are getting hit extremely hard, there's simply no way they will recover this year, and maybe not next year.

Airports are one of those segments. What will Canadian pensions with major stakes in airports do?

Well, to be honest, nothing, they will write these assets down and wait for the health crisis to subside and write them back up when the cycle turns.

Also, go read my last comment where OTPP's CEO Jo Taylor told me they have plenty of liquidity to help their portfolio companies this year and beyond if needed. 

OTPP is fully funded, so are other major Canadian plans, they don't need to sell private market assets at a deep discount to meet their pension obligations, so they can easily sit this mess out and patiently wait for the cycle to turn.

Will the drop in airport revenues hit them this year and potentially next year? You bet but that's why they have a diversified portfolio overall and even within their infrastructure portfolios (some infrastructure segments like cell towers and data centers are booming, helping offset losses in airports, toll roads and ports).

So don't fret, Gatwick isn't going under and neither are other major airports, they are just experiencing a mini depression until the world gets one or a few successful vaccines to nip this bloody virus (let's hope so). 

Of course, what remains to be seen is if business and leisure air travel experiences a sustained hit in demand because of the coronavirus,

Still, unlike shopping malls, I am more confident stating airports will bounce back and reemerge as very important investments for Canada's large pensions over the long run.

Below, Gatwick Airport is set to cut 600 jobs due to the "devastating impact" of the coronavirus pandemic. The number of job losses equates to around 24 percent of the current number of employees and the company will now enter into a formal consultation process with employees, a statement said.Passenger numbers are down 80 per cent compared to August last year, the company said.

Trust me, this isn't unique to Gatwick, the pandemic is impacting revenues at all airports and you'll be seeing all airports take similar measures to cut costs as revenues plummet. 

Also, Sven Carlin discusses while many investors have been attracted by airline stocks recently, he thinks it is better to look at airport stocks.

The only reason I embedded this is because I agree with his thinking and analysis, everyone is focused on Air Canada and US airline shares (JETS) but maybe real long-term investors should be thinking airport stocks, not that they're easy to find on North American stock exchanges. 

Anyway, right now, if it ain't tech, it ain't moving, the Fed has succeeded in inflating yet another tech bubble. Hopefully it crashes soon and the rest of the market takes off but I doubt this will happen in a market where large quant funds keep feasting on mega cap tech shares.

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