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Sovereign Funds Rethink Reliable Real Estate?

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Tom Arnold of Reuters reports sovereign funds rethink once-reliable real estate:

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced sovereign wealth funds to think the previously unthinkable.

With prime office blocks lying empty around the world, hotels half-vacant and retailers struggling to stay afloat, the funds are retreating from many of the real estate investments that have long been a mainstay of their strategies.

Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) invested $4.4 billion in the sector in the first seven months of 2020, 65% down from the same period a year ago, according to previously unpublished data provided to Reuters by Global SWF, an industry data specialist.

The nature of property investments is also shifting, with funds increasingly investing in logistics space, such as warehousing, amid a boom in online commerce during the pandemic, while cutting back on deals for offices and retail buildings.

Such shifts in behaviour can have seismic effects on the global real estate market, given such funds are among the largest investors in property and have interests worth hundreds of billions of dollars in total. Three sovereign funds sit within the top 10 largest real estate investors, according to market specialists IPE Real Assets.

A big question is whether the changes are structural for the funds, for which property is an asset-class staple at about 8% of their total portfolios on average, or a temporary response to a huge, unexpected and unfamiliar global event.

"Real estate is still a big part of sovereign wealth fund portfolios and will continue to be so," said Diego López, managing director of Global SWF and a former sovereign wealth fund adviser at PwC.

"What COVID has accelerated is the sophistication of SWFs trying to build diversification and resilience into their portfolio - and hence looking for other asset classes and industries."

Sovereign funds have been more bearish on property than public pension funds, another big investor in the sector, Global SWF found. While they have outstripped the pension funds in overall investment across most industries and assets this year, by two to one, that ratio is reversed for real estate.


 

FUTURE OF THE OFFICE

Funds are nursing hits to their existing property portfolios stemming from the introduction of lockdowns and social-distancing restrictions. While other parts of their portfolio, such as stocks and bonds, have rebounded from March's trough, a real-estate recovery is less assured.

Property capital value globally is expected to drop by 14% in 2020 before rising by 3.4% in 2021, according to commercial real estate services group CBRE. Analysts and academics question whether the pandemic's impact may prove long-lasting, with more people working from home and shopping online.

"I think there's a real threat to some commercial business districts in the big cities as I can't see us all return to the 9-to-5 schlep in, schlep out," said Yolande Barnes, a real-estate specialist at London university UCL.

The value of property assets of some funds has fallen in 2020, with those experiencing the biggest drops including Singapore's Temasek Holdings and GIC, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) and Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), according to data compiled for Reuters by industry tracker Preqin.

Those four funds have collectively seen the value of such assets drop by $18.1 billion to $132.9 billion, the data showed.

Reuters was unable to confirm whether the fall was due to lower valuations or asset sales. The funds either declined to comment or did not respond.

Many sovereign funds do not publicly disclose data on property investments, with Norway's one of the exceptions.

The Norwegian fund, which has around $49 billion invested in real estate, up from $47 billion at the end of 2019, said last week its unlisted property portfolio returned minus 1.6% in the first half of 2020.

Sovereign funds have also largely steered clear in 2020 of new direct investments in London or Los Angeles, hotspots in normal times, according to property services firm Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), which said SWFs were "on the defensive".

LOGISTICS AND BIOTECH

The funds' advance in logistics properties, such as warehousing and goods distribution centres, comes at a time of high demand as people have bought everything from toilet paper to trainers from home during lockdowns.

So far this year, logistics have accounted for about 22% of funds' real-estate investments by value, compared with 15% in 2019 as a whole, the Global SWF data shows.

Meanwhile, investments in offices have fallen to 36% from 49% last year, and in retail property to zero versus 15%.

Marcus Frampton, chief investment officer at the Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation (APFC), told Reuters that real-estate deal volumes had "slowed down substantially" in general, but that, anecdotally, he saw activity in industrial facilities like logistics and "multi-family" apartment blocks.

The wealth fund's holdings have risen to $4.7 billion, up from $4 billion at the end of June, after the purchase of multi-family and industrial REIT stocks on July 1, Frampton said.

"Commercial warehouse activity is strong," he added.

In a sign of the times, Temasek participated in a $500 million investment in Indonesia-based e-commerce firm Tokopedia in June.

In contrast, physical retail, a significant part of many funds' holdings, has been hit hard. QIA-owned luxury retailer Harrods in London has reportedly forecast a 45% plunge in annual sales, as visitor numbers plummet. Many other retailers have sought to renegotiate rents.

The outlook appears brighter for some fledgling sectors such as biotech, which has come to the fore during the pandemic.

"We have seen significant demand for life sciences space. That's ranged from office to specialist lab and warehouse space," said Alistair Meadows, JLL's head of UK capital markets.


 

DISTRESSED OPPORTUNITIES

The U.S. office market is expected to face its first year since 2009 of more space becoming vacant than leased, according to CBRE.

Still, investors are betting on a rebound of sorts in some quarters. For example, Canary Wharf Group, partly owned by the QIA, unveiled plans last month for a large new mixed-use development, including business space, in London's financial district.

And while hotels face huge challenges, occupancy rates are expected to rebound near to pre-COVID levels - but not until the end of 2021.

The Libyan Investment Authority has experienced problems with the operating expenses of some of its properties, including some hotels in Africa owned by its subsidiary, Chairman Ali Mahmoud Hassan Mohamed told Reuters.

But it remains committed to its real-estate portfolio, estimated at $6.6 billion in its latest valuation in 2012, as it was able to restore its value, he said.

Crises can also present opportunities, however.

In the aftermath of the pandemic, some funds may look for bargains as distressed properties emerge.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority, which operates a fund, told Reuters it would "closely monitor market conditions with a view to capturing appropriate opportunities".

And in an uncertain world, some academics argue that property remains a solid bet for savvy investors.

Barnes of UCL said sovereign funds could be "lighter on their feet" than some other institutional funds and more able to adjust their behaviour to suit changing circumstances.

"Real estate is one of the better sectors to be in, in a world of turmoil," she added. "But it's very much about picking the right real estate." 

Indeed, you have to pick your real estate sectors very carefully these days.

Real estate is an important asset class for sovereign wealth funds and global pension funds.

The pandemic has really shook this asset class to its core. In May, I wrote a huge comment on why I believe there is a paradigm shift going on in real estate

In a nutshell, working from home (WFH) might become the new normal and the world's leading technology companies are setting this new trend. Why? Not just for health reasons, it also allows them to provide more flexibility to workers and hire the best and brightest no matter where they live.

What else? They can significantly reduce their carbon footprint, something all tech companies are committed to doing, especially a behemoth like Amazon which wants to be carbon neutral by 2040.

Tech companies are so powerful that they set trends and that places pressure on global sovereign wealth funds and pensions to invest in a way that takes these trends into consideration. 

Is working from home for everyone and will it be permanent? Of course not but mark my words, no matter what Bruce Flatt or any other powerful real estate investor says, working from home is here to stay in one form or another and global investors would be foolish to think otherwise.

Are retail shopping malls dead? No, of course not. Today, we learned the FDA authorized Abbott’s fast $5 COVID-19 test and airline, cruise line, casino stocks and REITs all jumped on the news.

It's a bit silly, I'm not so sure this test is as accurate as they claim but it shows you how the market is ready to pounce on any good health news to buy these beaten down sectors.

All this to say, there will be a vaccine, better tests, better health measures and people going stir crazy at home will venture off to their local mall wearing a mask and practicing social distancing.

But will we see pre-COVID-19 volumes? No chance, a huge subset of the population will continue to avoid malls like the plague (I avoided them like the plague pre-COVID so my behavior won't change although lately I've fallen in love with Home Depot and feel like a kid in a candy store going up and down the aisles there).

As far as real estate trends, logistics is a very hot sector right now, perhaps a bit too hot judging by the $2 trillion market cap of publicly traded logistics stocks.  

Earlier this week, I discussed how CDPQ's real estate subsidiary, Ivanhoé Cambridge, along with LOGOS, acquired a strategic development site in Broadmeadows, Melbourne.

I mentioned how Ivanhoé Cambridge is playing catch-up to CPP Investments and other large Canadian peers which are more exposed to Industrial properties.

Following that comment, Michel Leduc, Senior Managing Director & Global Head of Public Affairs and Communications at CPP Investments, sent me some information on their sector breakdown for Real Estate, Infrastructure and Real Assets as at June 30th:

Real Estate:

Infrastructure:


Real Assets:


I thank Michel for sharing this information with my readers and it shows you even though CPP Investments has 29% in industrial properties (logistics), it still has a significant exposure to Retail (23%) and Office (29%). 

Interestingly, CPP Investments also has 12% in Ports and Airports (I think it's mostly ports) and 57% in toll roads (owns a controlling interest in Highway 407, it's most significant infrastructure investment).

As I discussed yesterday when I went over Gatwick's woes, the pandemic is wreaking havoc on transportation infrastructure assets, some more than others, and it will impact Canada's large pension funds.

Still, unlike retail real estate, they will stay the course with airports, ports and toll roads, betting the long term secular trend remains intact.

CPP Investments' CEO Mark Machin is on record stating they "like airports"  and he hopes the CPP Fund can one day buy big stakes in Canada's major airports.

Now, getting back to sovereign wealth funds, they have more money than CPP Investments and all of Canada's large pensions put together but they are struggling to invest all these trillions across public and private markets during these unprecedented times.

In public markets, Reuters reports sovereign wealth funds are stampeding into stocks outside the US:

Sovereign wealth funds poured a net $7.1 billion into stocks during the second quarter, the most in several years, with the bulk outside the United States, data showed on Thursday.

The funds also pulled a net $5.2 billion out of fixed income during that period, the most since the first quarter of 2019, according to the eVestment data on strategies managed by third-party fund managers.

Global large-cap growth equity strategies took in the most investment during the quarter, a net $6 billion. U.S. equity strategies pulled in only a net $704 million during that time.

That was far short of the flows into U.S. equities in the first quarter as the coronavirus spread around the world.


"We're seeing the sovereign wealth funds doing quite a lot of active search activity now in international equities, equities excluding U.S.," said Matthew Williams, head of institutional sales in Europe, the Middle East and Africa at Franklin Templeton.

"There is usually an increased allocation to equities as a hedging mechanism, given the historical negative correlation between equities and oil prices, and I think that's evident in what the oil-dependent sovereign wealth funds have been doing."

Aversion to U.S. stocks might be due to valuations as price-to-earning ratios run at around 29 times amid the S&P 500's push to fresh highs, as well as uncertainty about the outcome of the U.S. election in November, said Williams.

"Institutional allocators are keeping some of their powder dry on the U.S. equity allocations at the moment," he said.

Stock investments in public and private markets have contributed to the proportion of sovereign funds' direct listed deals compared with unlisted ones reaching 50% so far in 2020, the highest level since at least 2014, according to International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds (IFSWF) data.

"We have seen more direct investments in public markets and this was partly skewed by large investments Saudi Arabia's PIF (Public Investment Fund) has made in U.S. equity markets in Q1 and they've since sold some holdings, which may explain some of the outflows in the data," said Enrico Soddu, IFSWF's head of data and analytics.

The biggest investor in global equities is Norway's sovereign wealth fund. 

The world largest sovereign wealth fund lost 3.4%, or 188 billion kroner ($21 billion), in the first half of the year, and is embroiled in a CEO scandal of sorts:

The world’s biggest wealth fund said it’s eager to get clarity on who will lead it, after a botched recruitment process to find a new chief executive triggered a political storm that’s still playing out.

Norges Bank Investment Management on Tuesday revealed a $21 billion loss for the first half of 2020. The result caps a turbulent period that’s been overshadowed by a CEO succession drama.

“It’s now been almost a year since Yngve Slyngstad announced his resignation” as the fund’s CEO, Trond Grande, his deputy, said by phone after a press conference in Oslo. “Everyone’s looking forward to getting clarification and a new leader in place.”

“This situation has come on top of the challenging handling of a pandemic,” he said.

Grande stood in for Slyngstad on Tuesday, after the outgoing CEO skipped what would have been his final set of results after 12 years at the helm.

The giant investment vehicle has landed at the center of a political uproar after a London based hedge-fund manager, Nicolai Tangen, was picked as its new CEO.

The central bank, which manages the fund, has met fierce criticism for its handling of Tangen’s recruitment. Its watchdog says the bank failed to eliminate potential conflicts of interest relating to Tangen’s personal wealth and to adequately address his firm’s use of tax havens. What’s more, Tangen never appeared on an official list of candidates.

Compliance

Slyngstad was himself briefly tainted by the drama after it emerged that he’d accepted a luxury flight paid for by Tangen. An internal probe found Slyngstad didn’t breach compliance guidelines, while acknowledging a review of the fund’s standards was needed. Slyngstad wasn’t involved in his successor’s selection.

Norway’s biggest opposition party, Labor, recently said it now opposes Tangen’s appointment, after the central bank’s watchdog questioned the legality of the hiring process. Other smaller parties in parliament have also voiced criticism.

Tangen is still set to replace Slyngstad on Sept. 1, though it’s now unclear whether the government might be asked by parliament to get involved and possibly postpone, or even halt, the transition. Grande said the plan remains that Tangen will start at the beginning of next month.

“What’s been important for us is to continue the important job we have been given, and try to not spend too much time and effort on what we can’t do anything about,” he said.

Investment Returns

Norway’s sovereign wealth fund lost 3.4%, or 188 billion kroner ($21 billion), in the first half of the year, it said on Tuesday. At the press conference, Grande said the fund’s performance since the end of June means it’s now managed to roughly break even overall for the year to date.

Whoever runs the fund, which was set up in the 1990s to invest Norway’s oil income into foreign securities, will continue the historic asset sales started this year to cover the government’s need for stimulus cash. Withdrawals reached a record 167 billion kroner, or $19 billion, in the first half, the fund said on Tuesday. It’s so far relied on bond sales to cover the cost, Grande said.

Stocks were the fund’s worst investment in the first half, losing almost 7% overall. Unlisted real estate also fell while fixed-income holdings rose. The investor held almost 70% in equities, just under 3% in real estate, with the rest going into fixed income.

For the second quarter alone, the fund saw an 18% rebound in its stock portfolio, leading to an overall return of 13.1%. That’s close to the record 13.5% it reported for the third quarter of 2009, when equities bounced back from the financial crisis.

The fund’s biggest holdings were in Microsoft Corp., Apple Inc., Amazon.com and Alphabet Inc., with its technology portfolio returning 14.2% overall in the first half. Financial holdings fell 20.8%.

Oil and gas stocks slumped 33.1%. After a proposal in 2017 to exit the asset class completely, the fund was only allowed to sell pure crude explorers and producers. This divestment, valued at less than $6 billion at the time of the decision last year, is well under way, and the fund’s holdings in that sub-category are now “insignificant,” Grande said.

Boy, we haven't seen so much governance drama in Norway ever.

I chuckle because Norway recently warned its citizens to avoid traveling to Greece, saying Greece is not a safe destination.

The irony is Norwegians, Danes, Fins, Germans, Dutch and Swedes generally believe Greece is a Banana Republic full or corruption. I can say the same about Canadians as Conservative Parliament member Pierre Poilievre recently called out Greece and Pakistan as "the most corrupt countries in the world." 

Hey, buddy, look at your own backyard, Canada is just as bad if not worse than Greece when it comes to corruption except we like to think we are better than everyone.

Norway has a reputation for being one of the least corrupt countries in the world. That’s partly thanks to the stabilizing influence of the oil fund, which was set up in 1996 when the Norwegian government realized that the liquid gold that had turbocharged the country’s economic development since its discovery in 1969 would eventually run out.  

It now has to address this governance lapse in an open and transparent manner. I'm not questioning Nicolai Tangen's qualifications or motives, he has his reasons for leaving his high octane hedge fund to lead Norway's wealth fund but the drama has to stop, it's tarnishing the Fund and is making Norway look really, really bad.

Anyway, enough on that topic, hopefully it will be settled shortly. 

Below, Sam Zell, chairman of Equity Group Investments, joins"Squawk Box" to discuss the state of the real estate market amid the pandemic. 

And Related CEO Jeff Blau joins"Squawk Box" to discuss why he's calling for offices to reopen in New York in his latest Wall Street Journal op-ed. I agree with his concerns but think he's dreaming if he thinks most workers will return to New York City before they get vaccinated and even then, it won't be a mass return to the office.


TikTok, Will The Fed's Liquidity Bubble Implode?

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Jeanna Smialek of the New York Times reports Fed Chair Jerome Powell sets the stage for longer periods of lower rates:

Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, announced a major shift in how the central bank guides the economy, signaling it will make job growth preeminent and will not raise interest rates to guard against coming inflation just because the unemployment rate is low.

In emphasizing the importance of a strong labor market and saying the Fed will tolerate slightly faster price gains, Mr. Powell and his colleagues laid the groundwork for years of low interest rates. That could translate into long periods of cheap mortgages and business loans that foster strong demand and a solid job market.

The changes, which Mr. Powell detailed at the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole policy symposium, follow a year-and-a-half long review of the central bank’s monetary policy strategy. In conjunction with his remarks, the Fed released an outline of its long-run policy plan.

“Our revised statement emphasizes that maximum employment is a broad-based and inclusive goal,” Mr. Powell said in the remarks. “This change reflects our appreciation for the benefits of a strong labor market, particularly for many in low- and moderate-income communities.”

Market reaction to Mr. Powell’s announcement was mixed. Investors had already penciled in years of rock-bottom interest rates and analysts will be watching for more concrete rate guidance at the Fed’s upcoming meetings.

Still, Mr. Powell’s announcement could mark a defining moment in his tenure as chair, which began in early 2018 in the midst of the longest economic expansion on record and has run straight into the sharpest downturn since the Great Depression. The Fed raised rates nine times between 2015 and late 2018, with four of those increases under Mr. Powell’s watch, as it tried to guard against inflation. Price increases instead stagnated, making the Fed’s moves seem like overkill and helping to inspire and inform the policy review.

The central bank is facing major long run challenges as price gains prove tepid and as interest rates have slipped lower across advanced economies including the United States, leaving Fed officials with less room to cut borrowing costs and coax higher growth following recessions. Those slow-burn problems are what prompted Mr. Powell and his colleagues to revamp their policy framework. At the same time, the coronavirus pandemic has created a significant short-run threat, shuttering businesses and costing millions of people their jobs.

Mr. Powell’s announcement codifies a critical change in how the central bank tries to achieve its twin goals of maximum employment and stable inflation — one that could inform how the Fed sets monetary policy in the wake of the pandemic-induced recession.

The Fed had long raised rates as joblessness fell to avoid an economic overheating that might result in breakaway inflation — the boogeyman that has haunted monetary policy ever since price gains hit double-digit levels in the 1970s. But the Fed’s updated framework recognizes that too low inflation is now the problem, rather than too high.

“It seems like a pretty subtle shift to most normal human beings,” said Janet L. Yellen, the former Fed Chair. But “most of the Fed’s history has revolved around keeping inflation under control. This really does reflect a decisive recognition that we're in a very different environment.”


The Fed’s revised statement says that its policies will be informed by “shortfalls” of employment from its maximum level, rather than by “deviations” — suggesting that the central bank is no longer planning to raise rates to cool off the economy simply because unemployment has dipped to low levels.

The central bank is also formally shifting its inflation approach, aiming to average 2 percent inflation over time, rather than as an absolute goal. In doing so, the Fed is trying to convince the public and investors that it will allow prices to rise a little bit faster. If public inflation expectations slip, it can lock in slow increases. Those feed directly into the level of interest rates, and leave the central bank with even less room to cut them during times of crisis.

“If inflation expectations fall below our 2 percent objective, interest rates would decline in tandem,” Mr. Powell said. “In turn, we would have less scope to cut interest rates to boost employment during an economic downturn.”


Higher inflation may seem like an odd goal to anyone who buys milk or pays rent, but excessively weak price gains can actually have damaging effects on the economy. A circle of stagnation has played out in countries including Japan, in which lower price gains leave less room to cut rates, limiting policymakers’ ability to stimulate the economy and resurrect inflation.

“We are certainly mindful that higher prices for essential items, such as food, gasoline, and shelter, add to the burdens faced by many families, especially those struggling with lost jobs and incomes,” Mr. Powell said. “However, inflation that is persistently too low can pose serious risks to the economy.”

In a question-and-answer session after the speech, Mr. Powell said the Fed was “talking about inflation moving moderately.”

If the Fed can achieve slightly higher price gains, it will translate into more room for future rate cuts — and buying that extra headroom is a crucial goal in 2020. Long-running economic changes, such as an aging population with different saving habits and weaker productivity gains, have weighed on the interest rate setting that neither stokes nor slows the economy. That has left the central bank with less recession-fighting wiggle room.

Still, Mr. Powell pointed out that he and his colleagues “are not tying ourselves to a particular mathematical formula that defines the average.”

Some economists questioned whether the Fed will actually manage to achieve its new inflation target.

“The Fed is announcing this policy framework in part to push up inflation expectations,” said Seth Carpenter, a former Fed research official now at UBS. “In practice, however, getting above 2 percent is a long way off.”

Many of the changes the Fed announced Thursday formalize an approach it has edged toward over the past decade. The Fed was patient in beginning to lift interest rates following the recession from 2007 to 2009, even as unemployment fell.

When it did start to raise borrowing costs in late 2015, under Ms. Yellen, it did so slowly.

Under Mr. Powell’s leadership, the Fed has increasingly emphasized the benefits of that strong labor market, which pulled long-sidelined workers into jobs and helped to foster strong wage growth for those who earn the least.

Ms. Yellen, who has long argued that a strong labor market could boost marginalized groups, said the Fed’s shift is “great” and “a recognition that tight labor markets are beneficial.”

The long-run document promises that the central bank will continue to hold reviews, roughly every five years, and will continue to consult the public as it has done over the past year through its “Fed Listens” events.

“Public faith in large institutions around the world is under pressure,” Mr. Powell said in a question-and-answer session following his speech. “Institutions like the Fed have to aggressively seek transparency and accountability to preserve our democratic legitimacy.”

The Fed also explicitly noted in its statement that financial stability ranks among its key goals. In recent decades, expansions have ended when asset price bubbles — like the mid-2000s housing boom — got out of control, rather than at the hands of too-high inflation.

“Sustainably achieving maximum employment and price stability depends on a stable financial system,” the Fed said in its statement. “Therefore, the committee’s policy decisions reflect its longer-run goals, its medium-term outlook, and its assessments of the balance of risks, including risks to the financial system that could impede the attainment of the committee’s goals.”

Mr. Powell’s remarks, and the Fed’s shift, are set against an unhappy backdrop that has highlighted the central bank’s limits.

Fed officials have taken action to support the economy as the pandemic-induced downturn drags on — cutting interest rates to near-zero, buying government-backed bonds in vast sums, and rolling out emergency lending programs. Still, more than one million people filed initial state jobless claims last week, data released Thursday morning showed.

The Fed has repeatedly emphasized that a strong job market and economy is an imperative goal, but that Congress will need to help achieve it.

“It is hard to overstate the benefits of sustaining a strong labor market, a key national goal that will require a range of policies in addition to supportive monetary policy,” Mr. Powell said.

He added that there was a strong economy under the surface of the ongoing weakness.

“We will get through this period, maybe with some starts and stops,” he said. Still, “we’re looking at a long tail” as people who work in industries heavily impacted, like travel and service, struggle to find new work in a process that could take years.

“We need to support them,” Mr. Powell said.

It's Friday and this week was a big one for Fed watchers looking forward to the most anticipated Fed speech in decades.

Here's my reading of the Fed's momentous shift in policy:

  • Fed Chair Powell basically admitted the Fed cannot attain its 2% inflation target so the focus will be on its maximum employment mandate.
  • No surprise to me. Long time readers of this blog know I've been worrying about deflation forever and even wrote a comment three years ago about how deflation is headed for the US outlining several structural factors behind my reasoning: the global jobs crisis, the demographic time bomb, the global pension crisis, excessive private and public market debt, rising inequality, and technological shifts placing downward pressure on prices and wages.
  • The global pandemic has only exacerbated this long-term deflationary trend I've been warning of.
  • And now, the Fed's policy response and that of other global central banks will only intensify the deflationary trend and augur in an era of record low rates and growth.

Why? Last week, I discussed top funds' activity in Q2 and shared this:

  • Starting in late March, the Fed cranked up its balance by $3 trillion to backstop credit and equity markets. By doing this, it infected the bears with monetary coronavirus and unleashed the mother of all liquidity orgies on Wall Street
  • Speculators which include top hedge funds and bank prop trading desks used all that excess liquidity to buy risk assets, everything from junk bonds to tech stocks, to highly speculative vaccine stocks, some of which ran up as much as 3,000 or 4,000 percent year-to-date (before cooling off recently). 
  • This is entirely rational behavior but make no mistake, we are in the midst of a massive liquidity bubble and even George Soros has publicly warned it's a liquidity bubble.
  • Anyone who thinks stocks would be up more than 50% since March lows and making new record highs without such massive Fed intervention is either a fool or completely delusional. 
  • It's the Fed, stupid. The Fed took out the big bazooka and prayed it would work. It did, asset prices are all up all over the world, including in emerging markets, but the problem is the Fed has sown the seeds of the next crisis.
  • Why? Because a handful of mega cap tech names -- Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Netflix, NVIDIA, Tesla -- are melting up to bubble territory while the rest of the market is still depressed. This concentration risk is unprecedented as a handful of stocks represent almost 40% of the S&P 500.
  • Top hedge funds knew all this, they used the "Ackman bottom" when Bill Ackman went on CNBC in late March to scare the living daylights out of investors, to front-run the Fed and take super concentrated positions in a few tech names.
  • But most investors got caught flat footed, sold out of the market and didn't participate in this parabolic liquidity bubble over the last six months. Value investors, in particular, are underperforming once again relative to growth investors and some of them are jumping into this market to try to make some gains going into year-end for fear of missing out (FOMO).
  • On top of this, you have commodity trading advisors (CTAs) with trillions under management buying every breakout on the S&P and Nasdaq because that's what their systematic models tell them to do, driving stocks even higher.
  • Moreover, you have the passive investor craze where everyone is giving BlackRock, Vanguard, Fidelity and State Street money to invest in passive indexes which also exacerbates concentration risk and forces a handful of mega cap tech shares to fly to the stratosphere.
  • Of course, you also have the dumb day traders like Dave Portnoy who used this liquidity bubble to speculate on stocks, delusionally proclaiming "it's the easiest game ever". 
  • And now, the final clincher, Wall Street strategists throwing in the towel, toppling over each other to raise their S&P 500 targets for the year based on the fact that record low rates warrant these forecast adjustments because there is no alternative (TINA).

It's enough to make any investor shake their head in disbelief. 

I'm not a conspiracy theorist but given the vast fortunes Wall Street and a handful of tech gurus made since the pandemic erupted while many people have permanently lost their job, it makes you wonder.

Importantly, once again, the Fed has bailed out Wall Street and extremely high net worth individuals who invest in stocks and left everyone else to collect the crumbs Uncle Sam is sending them every month.

This is what capitalism has been reduced to, a charade that keeps benefiting the power elite and being a student of C. Wright Mills, I should have seen it all coming. 

The late comic genius and social commentator George Carlin was dead right: "It's called the American Dream because you have to be asleep to believe it."

In his book, The Myth of Capitalism, Jonathan Tepper argues persuasively that regulators and competition bureaus are to blame, effectively killing competition to ensure monopsonies thrive.

He has many good points but the truth is capitalism is a system which thrives on massive inequality, that's its endemic engine and its ultimate demise because when this massive inequality becomes unsustainable, it will implode the system (we are seeing it every year with rising social tensions).

Why am I sharing all this with you? Because you have to think a lot bigger when looking at the stock market and ask yourself who is benefiting the most from this pandemic and what are the long-term consequences.

Top hedge funds invest on behalf of endowments, large global pensions and sovereign wealth funds but they also invest on behalf of ultra high net worth clients at Blackstone, Goldman, UBS Asset Management, and other big banks and their wealth management divisions.

The Fed has bailed them all out, at least so far, but when the next major crisis hits, even the Bezos and Gates of this world will get hit and hit hard.

What is critically important to remember is while the Fed can't influence consumer price inflation which typically comes from wage inflation which is non-existent, it can create asset inflation.

But too much asset inflation causes speculative bubbles and history has taught us that financial manias never end well.

Worse still, the Fed is knowingly exacerbating income inequality. It doesn't really care about maximum employment for minorities as long as big banks, big hedge funds and private equity funds and their high net worth clients make off like bandits.

This is great for Bezos, Gates, Musk and other plutocrats but it does nothing to materially stimulate aggregate demand (only higher wages will but capitalists and Wall Street speculators don't like that):

Meanwhile, Main Street is in a world of hurt and it will only get worse as fiscal stimulus tapers off: 

All this to say, the Fed is in a major pickle, damned if it does, damned if it doesn't, so it opted for its only real recourse, increase its balance sheet up to wazoo and inflate asset prices all over the world. 

Great, fantastic, we know this, we've seen this movie play out back in 1999-2000 and 2008-2009 and somehow we've always managed to come through all these episodes.

This time isn't different, right? 

Well, folks, that's the trillion dollar question, but if you ask me, positioning is so extreme in various risk assets (tech shares, high yield bonds, emerging markets bonds and equities, etc.) that the entire financial system is one major carry trade away from blowing up, seizing and having massive convulsions.

When will it happen? No clue but when I hear some CNBC commentator state "...the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is only 20% above it 200-day moving average, at the height of the tech bubble, it was 60% above it," I get nervous:


I kid you not, it was Carl Quintanilla who uttered this yesterday but to be fair, he was saying it in the context of how things have become overly stretched.

Right now, these markets have become so lopsided that you'd have to be nuts to keep playing the one-sided tech momentum game:

And yet, this madness will likely continue until the Nasdaq hits 15,000 or 20,000 or more as Jerome Powell and company sit idly by for years (yeah right). 

What are value investors suppose to do in this environment? Jump on the tech trend and join all those hedge funds and Robin Hoodies making a killing buying tech shares? 

My best advice to those suffering FOMO and TINA here is you have a lot to fear, especially all you newbies who have never lived through a real bear market:

On that note, enjoy your weekend, let me leave you with some more food for thought.

Here were the top performing large cap stocks this week:

Interestingly, shares of Salesforce (CRM) took off 26% on Wednesday after the company reported great earnings and after it was known it will be a new Dow component along with Honeywell and Amgen.

26% in one day and 30% for the week, all very rational in a bubble market where everyone is trying to pick the next big tech stock to break out (crazy!):


Not surprisingly, the S&P Tech sector (XLK) is outperforming all other sectors, up 34% YTD followed by Consumer Discretionary (XLY) which is up 27% YTD (Amazon is 23% of that ETF):

And what's underperforming? What else? Energy (XLE) which is down a whopping 40% YTD and Financials (XLF) down 18%, both cyclical value sectors.

The dichotomy between value and growth is so bad that everyone is waiting for a major rotation (not just mini ones).

In fact, in his weekly market wrap-up, Up, Up, and Away!, Martin Roberge of Cannacord Genuity notes the following:

Our focus this week is on the persistent outperformance of technology stocks YTD. As we show in our Chart of the Week, the relative price line of the S&P 500 technology sector is back to levels set on February 23, 2000. The ultimate relative price peak occurred on March 10, 2000, or 12 business days later. Valuations, using a PEG ratio (i.e. P/E ratio divided by long-term EPS growth expectations), tell a similar story considering the technology index peaked at a ratio of 2.16 in March 2000 vs. 2.10 currently. As for earnings, other sectors are bouncing from cyclical lows with the reopening of the US economy. Hence, despite strong earnings in Q2, technology forward earnings estimates are no longer rising but falling, relatively speaking. In short, a negative divergence is opening between relative price and earnings strength. It remains to be seen if this divergence will last past the first leg of the cyclical recovery in S&P 500 earnings. Assuming it will, we recommend investors tred carefully and keep benchmark weights in tech. With the inflation trade back on the table, we favour energy, materials and industrials.


Very interesting chart, I think he's right but my fear is tech shares will keep melting up and then I see a massive tech selloff coming out of nowhere (like last September) and the entire market will crap out and stay down (in other words, no major rotation). 

Don't worry, if that happens, I'm sure the Fed stands ready to pump more liquidity into the system at a moment's notice: 

Japanification, here we come!!

Alright, that's enough, I'm sounding like a cynical jerk, enjoy your weekend. 

Below, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivers remarks at the virtual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Powell is expected to discuss the Fed’s policy framework and specifically how it will alter its posture on inflation. The Fed has had a 2% inflation target, but in the decade since the financial crisis it has more often than not seen inflation fall below its target. 

And CNBC's Kelly Evans discusses the Federal Reserve's new average inflation targeting with Greg Ip, chief economics commentator at the Wall Street Journal. 

CNBC's Steve Liesman and Kelly Evans also talk with Robert Kaplan, Dallas Fed president, about the Federal Reserve's historic approach to inflation. 

Fourth, Jim Bianco, Bianco Research, breaks down the Fed's historic policy shift. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Guy Adami, Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman and Steve Grasso.

Lastly, Anastasia Amoroso, J.P. Morgan Private Bank head of cross asset thematic strategy, joins 'Fast Money Halftime Report' to discuss the state of the market and why she thinks the rally could continue.

OMERS Looking at Asia-Pacific Infrastructure

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Florence Chong of IPE Real Assets reports OMERS plans to ramp up exposure to Asia-Pacific infrastructure markets:

Canadian pension fund OMERS is poised to step up its exposure to Asia’s infrastructure market, focusing on renewables, telecommunications and transport.

Prateek Maheshwari, managing director at OMERS Infrastructure, told IPE Real Assets: “The intention is to further grow the success we have in the region.”

Maheshwari, who is to relocate from London to Singapore next year to spearhead the investor’s expansion in the region, said: “We believe in the long-term growth and demographics of the region.”

Last year, OMERS Infrastructure made its entry into the region, paying C$160m (€102m) for a 22.4% stake in Indinfravit Trust, which owns a collection of toll roads in India.

Maheshwari said India’s toll-road sector could offer further opportunities as the country moved to modernise its transportation network and build new toll roads.

He also anticipates opportunities in renewables. “Electricity demand is growing in India and, given India’s climate goals and commitments to the Paris Climate Agreement, there will be further opportunities for investment,” he said.

Renewables and digital communications infrastructure are two growth sectors OMERS has idenfitied in Asia, and Maheshwari said it would look to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

The larger economies of Southeast Asia, such as Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, were also going through urbanisation, and would present new investment opportunities, he added.

Although OMERS Infrastructure did not establish a presence in Asia until 2018, when it set up an office in Singapore, it had, from 2012, established relationships with Asian investors through its Global Strategic Investment Alliance (GSIA).

The GSIA, a US$12.5bn (€10.6bn) co-investment programme, ended its fundraising in June 2014 and includes Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund, the Development Bank of Japan, the Pension Fund Association of Japan, and consortium led by Mitsubishi Corporation.

“Institutional partnerships have been and would continue to be a key element of our investment strategy,” said Maheshwari.

“The intent for me is to further develop those relationships, while also working to see if we can extend that our wider OMERS Infrastructure network to include new names in Asia.” 

Asked about Singapore’s GIC, he said the sovereign wealth fund has been a co-shareholder in some assets in other regions with OMERS.

OMERS maintained an ongoing “broad relationship dialogue” with all of its large Asian capital partners, he added.

While not going into specific targets for allocations to Asia, Maheshwari said: “When we entered Asia, we were driven by a desire to build on the success we have in North America and Europe.”

OMERS is currently heavily concentrated in North America. In 2019, 72% of its total assets (C$109bn) were located there, with 17% in Europe and 8% in Asia-Pacific.

OMERS is highly concentrated in North American assets and when you include Europe, that's 90% of its assets.

Asia-Pacific represents a mere 8% but this is where future growth will come from so just like OTPP and CPP Investments, OMERS has to shift its focus there.

That's the responsibility of Prateek Maheshwari, managing director at OMERS Infrastructure, and from reading this interview, I get a sense he knows exactly what he's talking about.

In April, 2018, I wrote a comment on why Canada's pensions are investing big in India, stating this:

Why is CPPIB investing in India? In case you haven't noticed, India's economy is booming. Rishi Iyengar of CNN recently reported that India is building a city from scratch to attract foreign investors.

If that doesn't impress you, read about how India's richest man, Mukesh Ambani, is now focusing his attention on banking after disrupting the country's telecom sector, driving weaker players into bankruptcy.

There is huge money to be made in India over the coming decades and both domestic and foreign investors are trying to grab a slice of the pie.

But unlike China, India's path to growth has been less than stellar. The country has favorable demographics, a young and educated workforce, but corruption and a bureaucratic legal system have plagued the country's growth prospects as has massive inequality which threatens India's "invisible" middle class.

Still, despite these structural challenges, there is no denying India is now the world's fastest-growing large economy, and probably will be for years if not decades to come. Some think it will even outgrow China but to do this, it first needs to invest in next-generation value chains to succeed.

In April, 2019, I discussed how PSP's Roadis and the National Investment and Infrastructure Fund (NIIF) invested $2 billion to create a platform that will invest in road projects in India.

Today, I read that India is entering a new phase of reopening that will see subway trains running for the first time in months, despite skyrocketing daily coronavirus infections that are showing no sign of slowing down:

The country of 1.3 billion people has reported more than 75,000 infections for five consecutive days -- the fastest growing caseload of any country in the world.
 
It recorded 85,687 new Covid-19 infections last Wednesday, the world's highest single-day spike since the pandemic began, surpassing the previous record of 77,255 cases set by the United States on July 16.

India's infection rate has increased exponentially in recent weeks. It took almost six months for the country to record 1 million cases, another three weeks to hit 2 million, and only 16 more days to hit 3 million.
 
At this rate, India's total number of cases, now at over 3.6 million, is on track to outnumber that of Brazil to become the second highest in the world, behind the US.
 
But India's death toll remains relatively row compared to its infection numbers. As of Sunday, India reported 64,469 coronavirus deaths -- about half of Brazil's death toll -- with a mortality rate of 1.79%, according to its Health Ministry.
 
As infections soar, the Indian government has continued to lift lockdown measures. On Saturday, the Ministry of Home Affairs announced India will enter a new phase of reopening on September 1 known as "unlock 4."
 
That includes the resumption of the country's metro rail services in a "graded manner" from September 7, according to the ministry's statement. 
 
Under the new rules, gatherings of up to 100 people will be permitted at sports, entertainment, cultural, religious and political events outside of hot-spot areas from September 21, with mandatory face-mask wearing and social distancing measures.
 
Schools and colleges will remain closed until the end of September, although up to 50% of the teaching staff will be allowed to return to campus to teach online courses, and students from Year 9 to 12 can also return on a voluntary basis. 
Up until recently, India was doing relatively well with COVID-19 infections, but that has changed dramatically and the country's infection rate has increased exponentially in recent weeks.
 
The death toll remains relatively low but this can change in a heartbeat in a country like India where there are densely populated cities and rampant poverty.  
 
Last week, I discussed how Gatwick's woes are impacting Canadian pensions heavily invested in transportation infrastructure. 

I followed up with a comment on how sovereign wealth funds are rethinking real estate and shared this:
[...] Michel Leduc, Senior Managing Director & Global Head of Public Affairs and Communications at CPP Investments, sent me some information on their sector breakdown for Real Estate, Infrastructure and Real Assets:

Real Estate:

Infrastructure:


Real Assets:


I thank Michel for sharing this information with my readers and it shows you even though CPP Investments has 29% in industrial properties (logistics), it still has a significant exposure to Retail (23%) and Office (29%). 

Interestingly, CPP Investments also has 12% in Ports and Airports (I think it's mostly ports) and 57% in toll roads (owns a controlling interest in Highway 407, it's most significant infrastructure investment).

As I discussed yesterday when I went over Gatwick's woes, the pandemic is wreaking havoc on transportation infrastructure assets, some more than others, and it will impact Canada's large pension funds.

Still, unlike retail real estate, they will stay the course with airports, ports and toll roads, betting the long term secular trend remains intact.

CPP Investments' CEO Mark Machin is on record stating they "like airports"  and he hopes the CPP Fund can one day buy big stakes in Canada's major airports.

As you can see, transportation infrastructure (ports, airports, toll roads) make up the bulk of the infrastructure investments at CPP Investments and this is the case at all of Canada's large pensions.
 
There's no question the pandemic has hit these assets hard as people work from home, drive and travel less, but once the health crisis subsides, these assets will see a significant increase in utilization. 

In the interview above, Prateek Maheshwari said India’s toll-road sector could offer further opportunities as the country moved to modernize its transportation network and build new toll roads.

He also anticipates opportunities in renewables. “Electricity demand is growing in India and, given India’s climate goals and commitments to the Paris Climate Agreement, there will be further opportunities for investment,” he said.

Renewables and digital communications infrastructure are two growth sectors OMERS has identified in Asia, and Maheshwari said it would look to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

Think about it, as more and more Indians enter the middle-class, they will be buying one or two cars, driving more and using the internet at home or their cell phones to do online shopping. 

This requires cell towers and data centers, two hot infrastructure areas (although data storage centers fall in between infrastructure and real estate).

Renewables will be huge in India, not just electric grids and transmission lines but solar and wind farms too. A country like India can ill-afford not to invest huge sums to bolster its renewable assets.

What else? Maheshwari is right to bring up strategic partnerships in this interview. 

Basically, OMERS, Teachers', CPP Investments, CDPQ and other large Canadian pensions need strategic partners to invest well in Asia-Pacific.

Typically, it's a large sovereign wealth fund like Singapore's GIC but there are others like large family offices and brand name private equity funds that are also investing heavily in the region.

Why do you need these strategic partners? Well, they are based there, know the region and players well, they can perform due diligence during the pandemic, and they are critically important if Canada's pensions plan on expanding and investing successfully in the region over the long run. 

It's also interesting to see OMERS is looking to ramp up its infrastructure investments in Asia-Pacific.

Last week, I had a discussion with Jo Taylor, OTPP's CEO, on their mid-year results, and he told me will soon open up their office in Singapore and  Bruce Crane, Managing Director, Infrastructure & Natural Resources, Asia Pacific, will be based there. 

I am willing to bet Mr. Crane and Mr. Maheshwari know each other very well and they might even team up on some deals in the region.

I'm also sure they will both do a great job in their respective roles.

Below, Bruce Flatt, CEO of Brookfield Asset Management, participated in the “Talks at Google” series in 2018, sharing his principles for real asset investing. The Q&A session following Bruce’s talk was moderated by Pranesh Srinivasan.

Flatt discussed his journey, the challenges faced by Brookfield over the decades, key ideas that have shaped its investment philosophy, and principles for enduring through times good and bad. Listen carefully to his comments on investing in real assets,
 
Brookfied is one of the biggest investors in India. In fact, BCI, alongside Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. and its institutional partners, just announced they acquired a 100 per cent stake in a telecom tower company in India from Reliance Industrial Investments and Holdings Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Reliance Industries Limited. The total equity commitment for the transaction is approximately US$3.4 billion:

The investment comprises a portfolio of around 135,000 communication towers which forms Reliance Jio Infocomm Limited's ("Jio") telecommunication network. The towers were recently constructed and strategically located for cellular network coverage across India. More towers are planned, increasing the total number of towers in the transaction perimeter to approximately 175,000, building a robust telecommunications market within the country. Jio is the anchor tenant of the tower portfolio under a 30-year Master Services Agreement, which will provide the tower company with a secure, long-term source of revenue. 

"For BCI and our clients, this investment is well aligned with our long-term strategy of investing in high quality companies and assets that fulfill essential needs of the communities in which they operate," said Lincoln Webb, executive vice president & global head of BCI's infrastructure & renewable resources program. "Data services are increasingly critical to societies and economies in today's world — promoting both opportunity for individuals and potential innovation for local communities. BCI is excited by the opportunity to invest in infrastructure that will play a vital role in enabling India's continued economic growth."  

That's a sizable infrastructure deal in India with a great partner (Brookfield) targeting communication towers. Great deal for BCI and its institutional partners.

Lastly, I embedded a clip on  FASTag, an electronic toll collection system, operated by the National Highway Authority of India (NHAI). It employs Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology for making toll payments directly from the prepaid or savings account linked to it. 

Pretty cool, India certainly has the technological know-how to be among world leaders in all infrastructure investments.

BCI, GIC and Brookfield Acquire Indian Telecom Towers

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Private Capital Journal reports Brookfield and BCI close acquisition of telecom tower business from Reliance:

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. (NYSE: BIP; TSX: BIP.UN) and British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (BCI) have completed the previously announced acquisition of a 100% stake in a telecom tower company in India from Reliance Industrial Investments and Holdings Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Reliance Industries Limited.(RIL).

Total equity investment will be approximately US $3.4 billion. Brookfield Infrastructure will be investing $600 million.

The telecom tower company owns a high-quality portfolio of approximately 135,000 recently constructed communication towers that form the infrastructure backbone of Reliance Jio’s (Jio) telecom business. Jio is an anchor tenant of the business under a 30-year Master Services Agreement, providing a secure, long-term source of revenue and incremental business plan tower build-out to drive growth that is expected to bring the portfolio to 175,000 towers in the near term.

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners put out this press release

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. (“Brookfield Infrastructure”) (NYSE: BIP; TSX: BIP.UN) today announced that it has completed the previously announced acquisition of a 100% stake in a telecom tower company in India from Reliance Industrial Investments and Holdings Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Reliance Industries Limited (“RIL”). Brookfield and its institutional partners will be making an equity investment of approximately $3.4 billion, of which Brookfield Infrastructure will be investing $600 million.

Brookfield Infrastructure has acquired a high-quality portfolio of approximately 135,000 recently constructed communication towers that form the infrastructure backbone of Reliance Jio’s (“Jio”) telecom business. This portfolio provides a well-placed platform to capitalize on the rollout of 5G across the country, as the towers are largely connected by fiber backhaul. Jio is an anchor tenant of the business under a 30-year Master Services Agreement, providing a secure, long-term source of revenue and incremental business plan tower build-out to drive growth that is expected to bring the portfolio to 175,000 towers in the near term.

“We are pleased to have closed this transaction, which was one of our top priorities for 2020,” said Sam Pollock, Chief Executive Officer of Brookfield Infrastructure. “The acquisition of this large-scale, high-quality telecom tower business significantly expands and diversifies our Data Infrastructure segment and competitively positions us in India’s growing data industry.”

“We are confident in the long-term prospects for data sector growth in India,” said Anuj Ranjan, Managing Partner and Head of India and the Middle East for Brookfield. “We are looking forward to continuing to work alongside Reliance, which has established itself as a leading telecom and technology company in India. The recent investments by leading global technology companies and private equity investors in Jio is further testimony to the platform Reliance has built and their strength as our anchor tenant.”

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners is a leading global infrastructure company that owns and operates high-quality, long-life assets in the utilities, transport, energy and data infrastructure sectors across North and South America, Asia Pacific and Europe. We are focused on assets that generate stable cash flows and require minimal maintenance capital expenditures. Investors can access its portfolio either through Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. (NYSE: BIP; TSX: BIP.UN), a Bermuda based limited partnership, or Brookfield Infrastructure Corporation (NYSE, TSX: BIPC), a Canadian corporation. Further information is available at www.brookfield.com/infrastructure.

Brookfield Infrastructure is the flagship listed infrastructure company of Brookfield Asset Management, a global alternative asset manager with approximately $550 billion of assets under management. For more information, go to www.brookfield.com.

BCI also put out a press release

British Columbia Investment Management Corporation, alongside Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. and its institutional partners, have acquired a 100 per cent stake in a telecom tower company in India from Reliance Industrial Investments and Holdings Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Reliance Industries Limited. The total equity commitment for the transaction is approximately US$3.4 billion.

The investment comprises a portfolio of around 135,000 communication towers which forms Reliance Jio Infocomm Limited’s (“Jio”) telecommunication network. The towers were recently constructed and strategically located for cellular network coverage across India. More towers are planned, increasing the total number of towers in the transaction perimeter to approximately 175,000, building a robust telecommunications market within the country. Jio is the anchor tenant of the tower portfolio under a 30-year Master Services Agreement, which will provide the tower company with a secure, long-term source of revenue.

“For BCI and our clients, this investment is well aligned with our long-term strategy of investing in high quality companies and assets that fulfill essential needs of the communities in which they operate,” said Lincoln Webb, executive vice president & global head of BCI’s infrastructure & renewable resources program. “Data services are increasingly critical to societies and economies in today’s world — promoting both opportunity for individuals and potential innovation for local communities. BCI is excited by the opportunity to invest in infrastructure that will play a vital role in enabling India’s continued economic growth.”

 About BCI

With C$171.3 billion of managed net assets as of March 31, 2020, British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (BCI) is one of Canada’s largest institutional investors within the global capital markets. Based in Victoria, British Columbia, BCI is a long-term investor that invests in all major asset classes including infrastructure and other strategic investments. BCI’s clients include public sector pension funds, insurance funds, and special purpose funds.

BCI’s infrastructure & renewable resources program, valued at over C$18.3 billion, invests in tangible long-life assets that include a portfolio of direct investments in companies across a variety of sectors spanning regulated utilities, energy, telecommunications, and transportation. These companies operate in stable and mature regulatory environments, provide opportunities for future capital investments, and have the potential to generate steady returns and cash yields for our clients. The program is diversified across North America, Asia, Australia, Europe, and South America.

And Reuters reports that Singapore's GIC, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds in the world, was also part of this deal:

GIC, Singapore's sovereign wealth fund, said on Tuesday (Sep 1) it and a group of investors, including Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP, bought an Indian telecom tower company from a unit of Reliance Industries for US$3.4 billion.

The investment by the group is for around 135,000 communication towers used by Reliance's telecoms venture Jio Infocomm, GIC said in a statement. 

The deal was signed in December last year and had been awaiting regulatory approval.

Since then, Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance has been selling stakes in its digital unit to blue-chip companies, raising billions of dollars, to cut debt.

The finalization of the deal also marks a foray into the fast-growing telecom market in India, which, in recent years, has been upended by the launch of Jio, Reliance's telecom arm, whose cut-price packages have turned it into the country's biggest telecom carrier by subscribers.

With the number of people using the internet in the world's second-most-populous country rising, the infrastructure that would widen its accessibility is a key building block.

"The portfolio offers resilient income and long-term value given India's attractive data demand growth outlook as 4G and smartphone penetration is still very low," said Ang Eng Seng, GIC's chief investment officer for infrastructure.

The investment by the group is for around 135,000 communication towers used by Reliance's telecoms venture Jio Infocomm, GIC said in a statement.

"While we remain cautious in this period of high uncertainty, we continue to seek good, long-term opportunities in India," Seng said.

Mr. Seng is absolutely right, this is a period of high uncertainty but institutional investors with a long investment horizon and very deep pockets can capitalize on long-term opportunities in India.

I mentioned this deal in my last comment covering how OMERS plans to ramp up exposure to Asia-Pacific infrastructure markets, but wanted to go over more in-depth in a follow-up comment.

The deal isn't new, it was announced back in December 2019 but closed now after regulatory approval. 

Back then, Brookfield Infrastructure Partners put out this press release:

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. (TSX: BIP.UN; NYSE: BIP) (“Brookfield Infrastructure”), alongside its institutional partners, is pleased to announce that it has entered into binding agreements to acquire a 100% stake in a telecom tower company in India from Reliance Industrial Investments and Holdings Limited (RIIHL), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Reliance Industries Limited (RIL). The total equity requirement is $3.7 billion, of which Brookfield Infrastructure will invest approximately $375 million, with the balance being funded by its institutional partners.

Brookfield Infrastructure is acquiring a portfolio of approximately 130,000 communication towers that forms the infrastructure backbone of Reliance Jio’s (“Jio”) telecom business. These are recently constructed assets that are strategically located for pan-India 4G coverage. These towers are well-positioned from a competitive perspective as they are largely connected by fiber backhaul, which provides a unique platform to capitalize on the rollout of 5G and future technologies. Jio is an anchor tenant of the tower portfolio under a 30-year Master Services Agreement, providing a secure source of revenues for the tower company.

“This is a unique opportunity to invest in a large-scale, high-quality telecom business and participate in India’s high-growth data industry,” said Sam Pollock, Chief Executive Officer of Brookfield Infrastructure. “This is an attractive business that offers downside protection with meaningful upside by co-locating equipment from other Mobile Network Operators on the towers, which to-date, have only carried Jio equipment. Further growth is anticipated through a tower build-out program, which is expected to bring the portfolio to approximately 175,000 towers.”

“We are pleased to be continuing our relationship with Reliance, following our successful Indian gas pipeline investment completed earlier this year,” said Anuj Ranjan, Managing Partner and Head of India and the Middle East for Brookfield. “Leveraging the strength of our partnership with Reliance, combined with the depth of Brookfield Infrastructure’s operating expertise, makes us well-positioned to execute on future growth for the business.”

Closing of the transaction is subject to certain regulatory approvals.

Why is this press release important? Well, it tells you Brookfield Infrastructure Partners had an existing relationship with Reliance, they obviously knew Mukesh Ambani, Asia's richest man, has been selling stakes in Reliance assets to cut debt.

When you're doing deals of this size and nature in a country like India, it pays to know the right people. Mukesh Ambani is certainly at the top of the list of anyone wanting to do deals in India.

It also helps that Brookfield Infrastructure is the best infrastructure fund in the world and is run by Sam Pollock, arguably the best infrastructure investor in the world.  

Mukesh Ambani wasn't desperate to sell these assets, he certainly got a fair price for them, and he's wise enough to sell them to a premiere fund like Brookfield who along with its partners, BCI and GIC, will develop these assets over the long run and capitalize on the rollout of 5G in India.

In short, this deal will allow these investors to be part of the country's growing data industry as more and more Indians enter the middle class and use their cell phones for everything, including watching sport events and e-commerce. 

And note what Sam Pollock stated in the December press release:

“This is a unique opportunity to invest in a large-scale, high-quality telecom business and participate in India’s high-growth data industry,” said Sam Pollock, Chief Executive Officer of Brookfield Infrastructure. “This is an attractive business that offers downside protection with meaningful upside by co-locating equipment from other Mobile Network Operators on the towers, which to-date, have only carried Jio equipment. Further growth is anticipated through a tower build-out program, which is expected to bring the portfolio to approximately 175,000 towers.”

And Lincoln Webb, executive vice president & global head of BCI’s infrastructure & renewable resources program, is spot on:

 “Data services are increasingly critical to societies and economies in today’s worldpromoting both opportunity for individuals and potential innovation for local communities. BCI is excited by the opportunity to invest in infrastructure that will play a vital role in enabling India’s continued economic growth.”

It's also worth noting BCI ranked 9th in Infrastructure Investor's newly released Global Investor 50, a list of the largest institutional investors in global infrastructure. BCI is the only new entrant in this year's top 10.

By the way, there is intense competition in India for telecom towers.

Two years ago, American Tower (ATC) expanded its footprint in India through the completion of the acquisition of Indian carrier Idea’s tower business:

The local subsidiary of ATC has acquired a portfolio of around 9,000 towers in India for 40 billion rupees ($597.2 million). Idea said the portfolio of towers had a tenancy ratio of 1.80x as of September 2017.

India’s Department of Telecommunications (DoT) recently approved the transaction, according to Indian press reports.

The transaction was part of the anticipated merger between Indian carriers Idea and subsidiary Vodafone India, which is expected to create India’s largest telecoms operator with an estimated 430 million subscribers.

After this recent acquisition, ATC now operates some 68,000 towers across India. The company has already acquired Vodafone India’s portfolio of around 10,200 telecommunications towers. “We  closed on our acquisition of the Vodafone tower portfolio in India, at the very end of the quarter, adding over 10,000 sites to our portfolio and further solidifying our position as a leading independent tower operator in the market,” ATC’s EVP and CFO Tom Bartlett said in a previous conference call with investors.

Under the terms of the deal, ATC’s majority-owned subsidiary in India, also known as ATC Telecom Infrastructure Private Limited or ATC TIPL, will have both Idea and Vodafone India as customers.

Idea Cellular added that after the completion of the merger with Vodafone India, 6,300 co-located tenancies of the two operators on the combined tower portfolio will turn into single tenancies over a period of two years without the payment of exit penalties.

“Both Vodafone India and Idea Cellular as customers, and ATC as a vendor, have agreed to treat each other as long term preferred partners, subject to existing agreements,” Idea said.

The sale of Vodafone India’s towers doesn’t take Vodafone out of the tower market in the Asian country, however. Vodafone still has a 42% stake stake in Indus Towers, which is the world’s largest tower company with a portfolio of more than 120,000 towers; that stake was not part of the Vodafone India/Idea merger deal.

In April, Indus Towers and Bharti Infratel had agreed to merge their operations in a deal that will create the world’s second-largest mobile towers company

The new company will have 163,000 towers across 22 telecom service areas in India. The entity will have an estimated equity value of $14.6 billion. The world’s largest tower company is China Tower, a joint venture established by China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom.

The new firm will own 100% of Indus Towers, which is currently owned by Bharti Infratel (42%), Vodafone (42%), Idea Group (11.15%) and Providence Equity Partners (4.85%).

I'm sharing this with you so you can appreciate that there are big global companies and funds all vying for Indian telecom towers.

In any case, this is a great deal for BCI, GIC and Brookfield, although we don't have details about how much money GIC and BCI are putting into this deal.

Brookfield is putting $600 million of the US $3.4 billion so I can only speculate that BCI and GIC are ponying up an equal amount (in equity) and the partners are financing the rest through debt (don't quote me on these figures as I am speculating but that is my best guess).

Lastly, I read that Brookfield recently raised US$23B and expects to ramp up pace of deals:

Brookfield Asset Management Inc. said it raised a record US$23 billion during the second quarter and expects to accelerate the pace of investments after the disruption caused by COVID-19.

The Toronto-based alternative asset manager said it has US$77 billion in cash, securities and other available capital, including uncalled capital commitments from clients. That figure includes US$12 billion raised in its latest distressed debt fund by its Oaktree Capital Management unit. When that fund is closed, it should be the largest ever raised for distressed debt investing, Brookfield Chief Executive Officer Bruce Flatt said in a letter to shareholders.

“While we do not expect full recovery of the global economy until well into 2021, we believe the worst is over, and our own businesses are slowly recovering,” said Flatt. “We have been keeping our powder dry, waiting for opportunities we believe will come.”

Flatt said that while the quarter was busy for raising capital, its three flagship funds are now 50 per cent committed and that the firm expects to start raising money again for their next vintages in 2021.

“We are being patient with our capital, but we expect the pace of investment to increase over the next 12 months as opportunities present themselves,” Flatt said.

The market disruption hurt Brookfield’s earnings during the quarter, with some businesses recording no income, Flatt said. The company took writedowns of US$978 million, largely in its real estate portfolio, that contributed to a second quarter loss of US$656 million, or 43 cents per share.

Its funds from operations were US$1.16 billion during the quarter, up nearly five per cent from the same period last year.

“The good news is that those operating businesses that were impacted are now all recovering, and the balance of the year should be better,” Flatt said.

Flatt said he does not believe the COVID-19 outbreak will permanently impact urbanization trends, despite what some are predicting. He said video conferencing and internet connections have allowed people to work from home during the crisis but, ultimately, it won’t work over the longer term because people are social beings.

“The same arguments about distanced working were made when the automobile became ubiquitous, the telephone allowed transcontinental conversations, and the internet enabled online communication. None of these has changed the fact that people favor being in cities and in offices,” Flatt said.

“In fact, quite the opposite has always been true in past. These communication tools historically enhanced great cities and offices rather than supplanting them. We think this will play out the same way this time as well.”

Bruce Flatt is one smart cookie and while I agree with his points, I also think he's underestimating the paradigm shift going on in real estate.  

Just today, I read that another tech giant, Shopify, is set to vacate its 170,000- square-foot Elgin Street headquarters as part of a plan to consolidate its Ottawa operations at an office tower on nearby Laurier Avenue. That's a lot of office space to absorb but maybe Brookfield will put in a bid, who knows.

All I'm saying is there's a reason why sovereign wealth funds are rethinking once-reliable real estate, and while Bruce Flatt will likely turn out to be right, he might not be as right as he thinks (but I don't fault the man for talking up his book).  

Oh, before I forget, the mystery of Mark Carney’s next job is solved. The former Bank of England and Bank of Canada Governor will join Brookfield as vice chairman and steer its environmental, social and governance (ESG) investment strategy:

Bruce Flatt, Brookfield’s chief executive officer, said in an interview he expects the new ESG group could eventually grow to the size of its real estate, infrastructure, and private equity businesses. Carney will be instrumental in that expansion because of his strong relationships with sovereign wealth funds and his range of business experience, Flatt said.

No doubt, Carney is a heavyweight and will fit nicely at Brookfield.

Below, in October 2019, Bruce Flatt, CEO of Brookfield Asset Management, and Ron Baron, Baron Capital chairman and CEO, joined CNBC's Becky Quick at the Baron Investment Conference to discuss the rise in real assets in an ultra-low rate world. Listen carefully to what Flatt said about long-term opportunities in India and why infrastructure remains a great long-term asset class.

I also embedded a 2017 clip from Zee Business which discusses how Indus Towers, India's largest telecom tower company is expanding continuously. Take the time to listen to the insights here and you'll understand why BCI, GIC and Brookfield just closed a great long-term deal. 

CPP Investments Expands Brazilian Multifamily JV

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 IPE Real Assets reports Greystar joins CPP Investments, Cyrela’s Brazilian multifamily property JV:

Greystar Real Estate Partners has marked its entry into the Brazilian rental housing market by joining Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments) and Cyrela Brazil Realty’s existing partnership.

Greystar said it joined the duo to develop a portfolio of rental housing assets across São Paulo.

In November last year, CPP Investments and Cyrela teamed up to invest R$1bn (€154m) to develop a portfolio of residential properties in the southeast region of Brazil.

At the time, CPP Investments said it will own an 80% interest in the joint venture.

The joint venture will continue to target an investment of up to R$1bn in combined equity following Greystar’s participation in the venture.

CPP Investments will maintain a majority interest in the joint venture, Cyrela will also own a significant interest and Greystar will acquire an ownership interest through the expansion of the partnership.

Greystar will manage the properties acquired through the joint venture along with contributing to the design process, with Cyrela developing and building the assets.

Bob Faith, founder, chairman, and CEO of Greystar, said: “São Paulo is one of the most dynamic and densely populated markets in the world with a significant institutional investor presence that is attracted to the multifamily asset class because of its relative stability, compelling risk-return profile, and demographic tailwinds.

“We see tremendous opportunity in Brazil, where the existing for-rent housing options lack the efficiency and sense of community that are hallmarks of Greystar.”

“We’re proud to be working alongside best-in-class partners that have a demonstrated track record of success in the local market, and we are excited to leverage our sector expertise and global experience to offer renters a hassle-free lifestyle. Together we will redefine the rental experience for South America’s largest population.”

Hilary Spann, MD, head of real estate Americas, CPP Investments, said: “CPP Investments sees increasing demand in the rental multifamily sector in Brazil, which will particularly benefit developers of modern, high-quality residential space.

“We are pleased to join our partners Cyrela and Greystar in building a best-in-class portfolio in Brazil.”

CPP Investments put out this press release going over the joint venture:

Greystar Real Estate Partners, LLC (Greystar) is joining Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments) and Cyrela Brazil Realty (Cyrela) in a joint venture that will develop, own and operate purpose-built multifamily rental housing in São Paulo. This milestone marks Greystar’s entry into the burgeoning Brazilian rental housing market, and a further step in its continued expansion in South America.

The platform and partnership first created by CPP Investments and Cyrela, which was announced in November 2019, has now expanded to include Greystar, the global leader in rental housing. Together, the joint venture partners will develop a portfolio of world-class rental housing assets across São Paulo’s most desirable, walkable and well-connected neighborhoods. Each community will have distinctive design elements and exceptional amenities, appealing to a variety of tenants who seek convenience, comfort, security and an active urban lifestyle.

The joint venture continues to target an investment of up to R$1 billion in combined equity. CPP Investments will maintain majority interest in the joint venture, Cyrela will also own a significant interest and Greystar will acquire an ownership interest through the expansion of the partnership.

Four development projects located on premium sites in São Paulo were initially identified as assets to seed the joint venture, with three already secured by the platform. This gives CPP Investments, Greystar and Cyrela’s partnership immediate scale in the market and accounts for approximately 40% of the joint venture’s target equity allocation.

“São Paulo is one of the most dynamic and densely populated markets in the world with a significant institutional investor presence that is attracted to the multifamily asset class because of its relative stability, compelling risk-return profile, and demographic tailwinds. We see tremendous opportunity in Brazil, where the existing for-rent housing options lack the efficiency and sense of community that are hallmarks of Greystar,” says Bob Faith, Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Greystar. “We’re proud to be working alongside best-in-class partners that have a demonstrated track record of success in the local market, and we are excited to leverage our sector expertise and global experience to offer renters a hassle-free lifestyle. Together we will redefine the rental experience for South America’s largest population.”

This partnership is unique in being one of the first institutionally owned and operated multifamily real estate investment platforms in Brazil, which is experiencing a confluence of consumer behavior and demographic trends, as well as structurally lower interest rates, that will continue to make this an attractive investment in Brazil over the coming years.

“CPP Investments sees increasing demand in the rental multifamily sector in Brazil, which will particularly benefit developers of modern, high-quality residential space,” says Hilary Spann, Managing Director, Head of Real Estate Americas, CPP Investments. “We are pleased to join our partners Cyrela and Greystar in building a best-in-class portfolio in Brazil.”

Greystar will manage the properties acquired through the joint venture along with contributing to the design process, with Cyrela developing and building the assets.

About CPP Investments

Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments™) is a professional investment management organization that invests around the world in the best interests of the more than 20 million contributors and beneficiaries of the Canada Pension Plan. In order to build diversified portfolios of assets, investments in public equities, private equities, real estate, infrastructure and fixed income are made by CPP Investments. Headquartered in Toronto, with offices in Hong Kong, London, Luxembourg, Mumbai, New York City, San Francisco, São Paulo and Sydney, CPP Investments is governed and managed independently of the Canada Pension Plan and at arm’s length from governments. At June 30, 2020, the Fund totalled C$434.4 billion. For more information, please visit www.cppinvestments.com or follow us on LinkedInFacebook or Twitter.

About Greystar

Greystar is a leading, fully integrated real estate company offering expertise in investment management, development, and management of rental housing properties globally. Headquartered in Charleston, South Carolina, Greystar manages and operates over an estimated $200 billion+ of real estate in nearly 200 markets globally including offices throughout the United States, United Kingdom, Europe, Latin America, and the Asia-Pacific region. Greystar is the largest operator of apartments in the United States, managing approximately 693,000 units/beds, and has a robust institutional investment management platform with approximately $35.5 billion of assets under management, including over $15 billion of assets under development. Greystar was founded by Bob Faith in 1993 with the intent to become a provider of world-class service in the rental residential real estate business. To learn more, visit www.greystar.com.

About Cyrela

Cyrela Brazil Realty is among the largest residential property developers in the Brazilian real estate market. Thousands of families have trusted their safety and comfort to Cyrela over the last 50 years and the company has grown to more than 15,000 employees. Cyrela constantly invests in its valued workforce through its Corporate University. Cyrela is also committed to social responsibility and improving the neighbourhoods it builds through many types of urban enhancements, as well as caring for the environment through advanced waste-management processes during construction. Cyrela’s brand has become a synonym for high quality through its achievements and innovations. It currently has 200 construction sites spread across 67 cities in 16 Brazilian states in the Federal District and has proudly built more than 56,000 homes.

These days, the only things you hear about Brazil is bad news, like how coronavirus has plunged the country into recession:

Brazil's economy contracted by a record 9.7 percent in the second quarter of 2020, plunging into recession as coronavirus lockdowns hit home, the official statistics agency said.

No doubt, Brazil is one of the worst hit countries but Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who has consistently downplayed the severity of the coronavirus outbreak, said on Monday that nobody will be forced to have the vaccine against the pandemic once it is developed.

However, on Tuesday, he extended until the end of the year payments for low-income Brazilians hit by the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, a program that has boosted his popularity but created tension with his finance team. 

I'm not going to focus too much on Brazil's economic and political woes, over the long run, Brazil remains one of the most important Latin American countries for large institutional investors, and it has remained this way since 2009 when investors fell in love with it.  

This deal is a play on Brazil's long-term economy and the boom of the middle class there, many needing rental units. 

CPP Investments now has two great partners, Cyrela and Greystar, to develop these properties. 

In fact, this marks Greystar’s entry into the burgeoning Brazilian rental housing market, and a further step in its continued expansion in South America. 

On its website, I read this:

Greystar Latin America is focused on bringing our proven vertically integrated acquisition, development, and operating platform to markets across Latin America. With offices in Mexico City and Santiago, Greystar aligns local market expertise with the power of a global investment platform. Currently, Greystar Latin America oversees nearly $370.5 million in assets under management and owns nearly 2,661 units.

Mexico

OTPP Bolsters Its Exposure to India's Credit Markets

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ETBFSI News reports Ontario Teachers’ partners with Edelweiss to invest $350 million in distressed opportunities:

Ontario Teachers’ and Edelweiss have partnered to invest $350 million with focus on performing and distressed opportunities in the Indian credit investment space.

Edelweiss Alternate Asset Advisors’ (EAAA) the largest debt manager in India with AUM over $3 billion will focus on the investment opportunities in the distressed private credit investment opportunities.

Rashesh Shah, Chairman and CEO, Edelweiss Group said, “This partnership comes at a time when there is a thrust towards empowering and enabling India to become a global manufacturing hub as vocalised by the Government’s ‘Atmanirbhar – self reliance’ vision. The need for long term patient capital in India presents a huge opportunity for private debt managers. At Edelweiss, we have built deep capabilities in this space and I am honoured by the trust placed in us by the highly respected Ontario Teachers’ team.”

Gillian Brown, Senior Managing Director, Capital Markets at Ontario Teachers’ said, “We are pleased to enter into a long-term partnership with Edelweiss Group, which has a proven track record and demonstrated ability to originate, underwrite, structure and realize on private credit investments in India. This partnership will further expand our presence in, and provide additional insights on, the important Indian market.”

Ben Chan, Regional Managing Director, Asia Pacific at Ontario Teachers’ noted, “We are excited to invest with Edelweiss to bolster our exposure to the Indian credit market.This is an important milestone in our ambition to build multi asset class exposure to India’s long-term growth story.As a global investor, Ontario Teachers’ hopes to leverage our select list of partners including Edelweiss for local insights and acumen as we navigate to grow profitably in this important market.”

EAAA is the largest private debt platform in India as a part of Edelweiss Asset Management business. The Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan Board (Ontario Teachers') is the administrator of Canada's largest single-profession pension plan, with $204.7 billion in net assets (all figures at June 30, 2020 unless noted). 

Swaraj Singh Dhanjal of livemint also reports Edelweiss' arm to get $350 million from OTPP:

Canadian pension fund manager Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board (OTPP) has agreed to invest $350 million ( 2,600 crore) in Edelweiss Alternate Asset Advisors (EAAA), the latter said on Wednesday.

The investment pact represents a long-term partnership between OTPP and the alternative investment platform of the Edelweiss Group, which will focus on performing and distressed credit investment opportunities in the Indian market, it added.

The focus of the platform is on credit and yield products. We have four products under our alternatives platform - performing credit (corporate and real estate) distressed credit and infrastructure yield. We started this platform 10 years ago with our first performing credit fund Edelweiss Special Opportunities Fund, for which we had raised $230 million," said Venkat Ramaswamy, vice chairman and executive director, Edelweiss Group. “Now, we have around $3.8 billion in assets under management including ESOF III commitments received recently," he added.

OTPP is the third major global investor to tie up with Edelweiss’ alternatives investment business. Canadian pension fund CDPQ and European insurance giant Allianz are the other investors.

Ramaswamy said EAAA is likely to raise a new fund every year. The announcement follows the recent deal between Edelweiss and PE firm PAG, which infused 2,200 crore for a 51% stake in the Group’s wealth management business.

India's Business Standard also reports Edelweiss arm secures $350 millionn investment from Ontario Teachers' Pension:

Edelweiss Group on Wednesday said it secured an investment of $350 million from Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board, Canada’s largest single-profession pension plan, in its alternate investment arm.

The investment, about Rs 2,600 crore in rupee terms, will be deployed in Edelweiss Alternate Asset Advisors’ (EAAA), a platform that manages about $3.8 billion of assets under management in performing credit, distressed credit, and infrastructure yield funds.

EAAA is part of Edelweiss Asset Management, which manages customer assets of about Rs 1 trillion across alternatives, mutual funds and distressed assets. The fund will be utilised to “focus on performing and distressed private credit investment opportunities in the Indian market,” Edelweiss said in a statement.

Global companies that have invested in EAAA include Caisse de depot et placement du Quebec (CDPQ) and Allianz Investment management.

Indeed, I've already discussed why CDPQ is investing in India's financial services, expanding its partnership with Edelweiss Group, a partnership that began in 2016. 

OTPP is also investing in Edelweiss Alternate Asset Advisors’ (EAAA), a platform that manages about $3.8 billion of assets under management in performing credit, distressed credit, and infrastructure yield funds. 

As Venkat Ramaswamy, vice chairman and executive director, Edelweiss Group, states:

“The focus of the platform is on credit and yield products . We have four products under our alternatives platform - performing credit (corporate and real estate) distressed credit and infrastructure yield. We started this platform 10 years ago with our first performing credit fund Edelweiss Special Opportunities Fund, for which we had raised $230 million," said Venkat Ramaswamy, vice chairman and executive director, Edelweiss Group. “Now, we have around $3.8 billion in assets under management including ESOF III commitments received recently," he added.

That tells me they know what they're doing and are growing this platform very nicely but carefully, always maintaining alignment of interests and focusing on returns.

In terms of this investment from OTPP’s perspective, Gillian Brown and Ben Chan explain it well:

“We are pleased to enter into a long-term partnership with Edelweiss Group, which has a proven track record and demonstrated ability to originate, underwrite, structure and realize on private credit investments in India. This partnership will further expand our presence in, and provide additional insights on, the important Indian market.”

“We are excited to invest with Edelweiss to bolster our exposure to the Indian credit market. This is an important milestone in our ambition to build multi asset class exposure to India’s long-term growth story. As a global investor, Ontario Teachers’ hopes to leverage our select list of partners including Edelweiss for local insights and acumen as we navigate to grow profitably in this important market.”

In late July, I discussed pensions' love-hate relationship with private debt, but I caution you, it's a different game in growth markets.

Specialized credit platforms like this aren't exactly burgeoning in India, you need to find groups that really know what they're doing and the people managing these platforms need to be plugged into the right people to capitalize on the best opportunities.

No doubt, Mr. Ramaswamy is plugged into the right people. You can read all about Edelweiss here to get a great overview of their business lines but I recommend you read this 2015 Forbes article on how Edelweiss built a business for the long run to really appreciate why Edelweiss Group is a leader in India's financial services.

Investing in India's credit markets, however, isn't without risks. At the beginning of the year, before the pandemic hit, KKR infused $150 million 'confidence' capital in India NBFC arm:

US buyout group Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR) is making a fresh equity commitment of $150 million, backing its wholesale non-banking credit arm KKR India Financial Services (KIFSL) that has been buffeted by rising bad loans in its portfolio, ratings downgrade, personnel changes, strategy overhaul and repayment pressures. 

This is the second time the parent is infusing ‘confidence’ capital after putting in $100 million in 2009, when the PE group launched its credit business in India in what was then hailed as a pioneering strategy. Till date its other investors Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) and Texas Teacher Retirement System have each infused $100 million. 

KKR will fund its commitment to KIFSL through the firm’s balance sheet. “This is a demonstration of the confidence KKR has in the franchise and in its India business,” said Sanjay Nayar, CEO, KKR India. “The fund infusion will help consolidate our balance sheet as well as grow the book. The demand for alternative credit in India is still very high.” 

In the last decade KKR’s loan book has grown to nearly Rs 5880 crore making it one of the largest corporate-focused shadow banks in the country. In 9 years, it has been involved in $6 billion of financing for corporate India and it's promoters. But with several of its bets going awry, the firm has been under severe scrutiny. 

NCD Repayments Due in 2020 

Nayar admitted that KIFSL will also modify its risk and underwriting standards going forward and some overhaul is expected on dealings with related-party transactions and a coherent strategy to coexist with other lenders. 

“We took the medicine early but we don’t have a definitive answer on how the strategy will evolve because the ecosystem itself is evolving. But we have learned lessons which we take with us as we look to the future,” he added. 

The capital infusion also comes at an opportune time since Rs 1,200 crore of NCD repayments are due in 2020, a bulk of which are coming up between February and April. 

KKR is understood to be seeking a $200 million relationship loan to repay the upcoming commitments and bolster the balance sheet. Sources in the know said that mutual funds have also written to KKR founder Henry Kravis expressing their concern over the India business. KKR declined that such a letter was sent. 

“All maturities on its due date will be absolutely met, there is no question about it,” said Nayar. “This narrative only goes up because the market is nervous after the high profile wind-downs of other nonbank lending names in the market. MFs at this time are considering how they will invest their own money in this environment. No letter has been sent to the most senior members of our firm on this.” 

The bondholders include DSP Mutual Fund, Franklin Templeton, HDFC Mutual Fund, ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund, Nippon India Mutual Fund, SBI Mutual Fund and UTI Mutual Fund. 

“KKR is one of the most prestigious private equity firms in the world and I do not think that there would be any problem in repayment of the dues owed to any lender,” said Hemendra Kothari, chairman, DSP Investment Managers. “The India venture is 51% owned by KKR Global and that is why investors had bet their money on this venture.” 

Sources in the know also suggested that an RBI audit in December had verified the health of the business. 

KKR’s NBFC has faced flak for backing companies as diverse as Café Coffee Day, CG Power, Kwality Dairy, Sintex, GMR, JBF Industries, Amtek Auto, Resonance Eduventures and Flexituff, among others. Close to a third of its portfolio has been under stress while as much as half of the 30-odd deals it has pursued in the last few years is estimated to have soured which led to a downgrade by Crisil last October. 

“In fiscal 2019, the company witnessed slippages of three accounts, of which they managed to recover from two, and had fully provided for the exposure towards the third. The reported GNPA (gross non-performing assets) remained at 2.0% as on June 30, 2019,” Crisil analyst Krishnan Sitaraman wrote last October. “While the reported GNPA metrics have been low so far, the potential stressed accounts in the portfolio has increased significantly in the recent past, some of which are already in various overdue buckets. Crisil notes that some of the recent stress in a few accounts manifested due to unexpected events and challenges linked to fraud and governance. Additionally, with over 60% of the portfolio still under moratorium (excluding early prepayments), some more accounts are susceptible to slippages going forward.”

KIFSL provides Indian businesses with financing solutions such as loans against shares, last-mile financing, M&A funding etc. 80% of its exposure are on its books while the rest are syndicated down to other lenders and its alternative investment funds. 
As you can read, alternative credit in India isn't easy, even KKR's NBFC has had issues lending to various companies and close to a third of its portfolio was under stress, and that was before COVID hit India.

OTPP's $350 million (2,600 crore) investment in Edelweiss Alternate Asset Advisors is a bit different but there are risks involved in financing any deals in India during this period of uncertainty.

That's why you need strong partners in India and other growth markets, you will experience ups and downs and you need strong partners to carry you through the difficult times. 

This week, I discussed OMERS looking into Asia-Pacific infrastructure, BCI, GIC, and Brookfield acquiring Reliance's Indian telecom business, and CPP Investments expanding its Brazilian multifamily joint venture with Cyrela to include Greystar. And now OTPP’s investment in Edelweiss.

In all cases, partnerships are critical to ensure the long-term success of these investments. 

OTPP's CEO told me again recently when I covered their mid-year results that "the focus remains on international expansion, especially in Asia, investing alongside our partners and finding disruptive companies there and elsewhere." 

There is a reason why OTPP is opening up an office in Singapore, it will be another Asian office (after Hong Kong) where they can focus on expanding their footprint there.

In all cases, OTPP is actively looking to partner up with the right partners to invest in infrastructure, private equity, real estate and private debt. 

Below, Edelweiss is one of India’s leading financial services conglomerates, offering a robust platform, to a diversified client base across domestic and global geographies. Customer centricity is core to Edelweiss. Being present in every financial life stage of a customer, helping them create, grow and protect their wealth, are their key lines of business.

When Nasdaq Whales Get Slaughtered?

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Fred Imbert and Katrina Bishop of CNBC report stocks fall in wild session to close out big losing week for tech:

Stocks closed lower for a second day on Friday after a wild session in which names that would benefit from the economy reopening tried to offset another steep decline in tech. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 159.42 points lower, or 0.6%, at 28,133.31. At one point, the 30-stock average fell as much as 628.05 points, or 2.2%. The Dow was also higher for a moment on Friday. 

The S&P 500 slid 0.8% to 3,426.96, but closed well off its session low. The broader-market index was down 3.1% at its session low and briefly traded positive on the day. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.3% to 11,313.13, but also closed well above its low of the day. 

Boeing shares rose more than 1% while bank stocks gained broadly. JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup were up 2.2% and 2%, respectively. Bank of America climbed 3.4%. Wells Fargo advanced 1.1%. Cruise operator Carnival climbed 5.4% and United Airlines advanced 2.2%.

“We might finally see some rotations that could lead to new market leadership,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. “That’s something we’ve been lacking for a long time.”

Shares of major tech companies closed mostly lower. Facebook, Amazon and Alphabet all lost more than 2%. Netflix slid 1.8% and Microsoft dropped 1.4%. However, Apple ended the day up 0.1% after falling as much as 8.3%. Tesla also erased a drop of more than 8%, ended the session up 2.8%.

The S&P 500 tech sector fell more than 1% a day after its worst session since March. For the week, the sector fell more than 4%. Tech’s sell-off came after the space drove the lion’s share of the broader market’s comeback off the coronavirus lows.

“We’ve had excessive valuations in the markets lately — particularly in the tech sector — and that needed to be corrected to some degree,” said Scott Knapp, chief market strategist at CUNA Mutual Group. “One needs to look no further than the recent irrational run-up in Tesla and Apple share prices after both companies announced a stock split to see overexuberance, especially among retail investors.”

Both Tesla and Apple rallied recently after announcing stock splits.

Japan’s SoftBank reportedly bought billions of dollars in individual stock options in big tech companies over the past month, driving up volumes and contributing to a trading frenzy. The heightened options trading activity was credited by many analysts for adding froth to the stock market.

We view the latest sell-off as a bout of profit-taking after a strong run,” said Mark Haefele, CIO at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Stocks are still well-supported by a combination of Fed liquidity, attractive equity risk premiums, and an ongoing recovery as economies reopen from the lockdowns.”

Tech’s decline this week led the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to snap their respective five-week winning streaks. The S&P 500 fell 1.8% this week and the Nasdaq declined by 3.7%. The Dow fell 2.3% this week. 

U.S. unemployment falls

The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 8.4% last month from 10.2% in July, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected the rate to decline to 9.8%. As for overall jobs creation, employment in the U.S. grew by 1.37 million in August, topping an estimate of 1.32 million.


“The jobs data today were solid,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. “However, now the real work begins.”

“The next 2-3% of employment gains are going to be very tough because there is no total reopening in sight. PPP funds are running dry and the impasse in Congress to reauthorize another round for struggling small businesses most affected by the pandemic are recipes for a wave of small business closures,” Cox said.

It's Friday and it was another volatile week in markets led by Thursday's massive tech rout.

Before I get to the stock market, today's US jobs report was encouraging and shows a fairly strong recovery is now underway (same in Canada), but we're far from being out of the woods:

There's no question it will be a sluggish and very uneven recovery:

Wall Street is booming because volatility has picked up in all markets and so have trading revenues on stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies (and derivatives).

Big banks make money off spread: credit cards, mortgages and other loans and buying and selling on behalf of their clients (roughly 25% of their revenues come from this activity).

Anyway, back to the US jobs report, it was encouraging, no doubt, but when you look under the hood, there's still a lot of damage there which is why some fear a K-shaped recovery that favors the wealthy:

It remains to be seen how this recovery unfolds. A lot is riding on one or more effective vaccines so economic activity can really pick up again but we simply aren't there yet.

All I can tell you is there is definitely a significant pickup in US economic activity, which was expected as states reopen their economies, and I remain confident but cautious on the ongoing recovery.

I'm also long US dollars at these levels and think too many US dollar bears have it totally wrong.

Those are my thoughts on the US economy and currency, now let's jump right into the stock market which is why everyone is really reading this comment.

Last Saturday, I posted this article on LinkedIn discussing how the market posted one of the strongest July-August rallies in history as hazard after hazard melts away:

I added this comment:

"The problem is when you see articles like this one, it typically means the melt-up has further to go. Just remember what Keynes use to say, in the short run, the market is a beauty contest and the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Having said this, my fear is when the inevitable pullback occurs, many investors will jump in to buy that dip and the market will continue to crap out and enter into the longest bear market in history, wiping out another generation of investors. Hope I’m wrong but I have a very bad feeling about what lies ahead. There’s a reason why private equity funds are raising billions in distressed debt funds."

Little did I know how things would unfold this week as the week started off on a positive note.

On Tuesday, September 1st, I posted this comment on LinkedIn after looking at the chart of the Nasdaq 100 index (NDX) relative to its 20-day moving average (I know, pros like using the 21-day moving average, I keep it simple and use the 20-day):


Basically, the Nasdaq 100 index was ramping up like crazy, leading the entire market higher. 

What was strange was as the market was making a record high, the volatility index (VIX) which gauges fear was at its highest level ever at a market all-time high:


That day, Zero Hedge  posted an interesting comment on the "Gamma crash up" and stated the insanity in the options market was the reason why Apple's market cap surpassed that of the entire Russell 2000:

What exactly is this Gamma crash up? Basically, there was huge speculative activity in the option markets, open interest went off the charts, people were buying massive short-term call options on a few mega cap tech stocks.

The dealers selling these options have to hedge their book to be delta neutral, and to do this, they need to buy the underlying stock. The activity on the options market was so extreme that it caused massive hedging which is why you saw outsized moves in some tech stocks like Salesforce (CRM) and Zoom (ZM) but mostly Apple (APPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA).

Who was buying these short-term call options on mega-cap tech shares? Initially, everyone blamed novice traders on Robinhood, but today we learned the identity of the real options whale:

Bloomberg posted an excellent article on how options traders whipped up a stock boom with Softbank buying:

Note the following:

Whether it’s a single buyer or hordes of retail day traders -- or a combination where purchases by one whip up interest in the other -- the footprint is visible in popular mega-cap tech stocks such as Facebook, Amazon.com, Netflix Inc., Google’s parent Alphabet Inc., Apple and Microsoft Corp., where total open interest had exploded higher at the fastest pace since September 2018, just before the Nasdaq 100 dropped more than 20%. The action had mostly been in bullish call options.

But again, from the FT

The overall nominal value of calls traded on individual US stocks has averaged $335bn a day over the past two weeks, according to Goldman Sachs. That is more than triple the rolling average in 2017 to 2019. The retail trading boom has played a big part of the frenzy, but investors say the size of many recent option purchases are far too big to be retail-driven.

That's why I have a hard time buying that retail speculators were behind the Nasdaq ramp-up. Sure, they might have contributed to the options insanity but it was a huge whale who started the frenzy.

And then you wonder why Canada's large pensions are allocating more and more to private markets.

Apart from the insanity of having to beat an unbeatable benchmark driven by a few large tech names, they know the game is rigged in public markets where some options whales or the biggest whales on the planet right now -- central banks -- are manipulating markets:

I'm not kidding, welcome to financial communism and just like the other communism, we will have our day of reckoning too and when we do, it will be scary as all hell. 

Anyway, don't get me started on the Fed and how it and Congress took out a fire truck to extinguish a camp fire but now it seems they are smartening up:


Of course, all eyes remain on the Nasdaq 100 and its cherished heavy lifters: Apple (APPL), Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Netflix (NFLX) and add a few others now like NVIDIA (NVDA) and Zoom (ZM).

What does this week's tech rout mean? It means Bezos and company lost a few billions in their net worth:

I wouldn't shed a tear, however, they remain on another stratosphere and their net wealth can easily recover from here as long as everyone rushes to buy the big dip on tech:


All I can tell you is we crashed below the 20-day moving average on the Nasdaq 100 but the bulls will remain confident as long as it remains above its 50-day moving average.

Don't kid yourselves, it's still a momentum market which is why I don't buy this nonsense of a "healthy rotation into value stocks."

I maintain that if tech stocks crap out, the entire market will crap out with them, it's just that the value stocks won't get beaten up as much because they haven't soared as much as tech stocks.

Still, be on guard and wary of what you hear from the claptraps on CNBC. There's no major rotation going on in this market, value stocks pop here and there but they're not catching sustained bids.

Right now the risks of a major market event are high. Just keep in mind what I stated last week when I openly wondered whether the Fed's bubble is set to implode

This time isn't different, right? 

Well, folks, that's the trillion dollar question, but if you ask me, positioning is so extreme in various risk assets (tech shares, high yield bonds, emerging markets bonds and equities, etc.) that the entire financial system is one major carry trade away from blowing up, seizing and having massive convulsions.

[...] my fear is tech shares will keep melting up and then I see a massive tech selloff coming out of nowhere (like last September) and the entire market will crap out and stay down (in other words, no major rotation). 

Keep this in mind the next time someone shows you some fancy chart on how this is the beginning of another secular bull market, similar to 2009 onward.

Nobody knows the future, including yours truly, but right remember the old adage: "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered."

Well, this week, Nasdaq options whales got slaughtered.

Alright, that's the end of my long market rant, have a great long weekend, I'll be back on Tuesday.

Below, CNBC's "Halftime Report" team breaks down how their investment strategies amid the market sell-off, led by the technology stocks. Like I said, I'm wary of this talk of "healthy profit talking" and "healthy rotation out of growth into value" but take the time to watch this discussion. 

And CNBC’s Kelly Evans discusses markets with Komal Sri-Kumar of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies; Quincy Krosby of Prudential Financial; and Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Advisory Group. Wall Street Fear Index is at the highest level since mid-June while the Nasdaq is on pace for its worst two-day drop since March. If the news about a coronavirus vaccine continues to be positive, it’s going to underpin the market’s move away from tech as a funding mechanism for the broader markets, says Krosby. 

Great discussion but you need CNBC Pro to watch it here (they should post more clips on YouTube for free!).

Trans-Canada Capital Open For New Clients

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Last week, I had a web conference call with Vincent Morin, Marc-André Soublière, Nelson Lam and Simon Guyard of Trans-Canada Capital (TCC).

A few weeks ago, I listened to a webinar featuring Vincent MorinPresident, Trans-Canada Capital, being interviewed by Caroline Côté, Managing Director, Funds, Private Markets, Quebec and International Venture Capital, CPDQ, and decided to follow up on TCC.

Let me first thank Claude Perron, founder of FiaMTL, for organizing this year's virtual  Mechoui (7th Edition) and inaugural Montreal Investment Forum on August 20th 2020 and for posting a replay online (embedded main clip below).

Let me also thank Vincent, Marc-André, Simon and Nelson for taking the time to talk to me via Microsoft Teams (not bad, first time I tried it and it went well).

Now, before I get to my discussion with the fellas at TCC, please take the time to read this 2019 comment of mine to help situate yourself. 

Basically, Trans-Canada Capital (TCC) is a new asset manager whose senior team was successfully managing Air Canada Pension.

It still is. Their main client remains Air Canada (it's the seed investor with 99.5% of the assets as of now) but in December of last year, right before the pandemic hit, the unit set its radar to find external clients:

The investment team for Air Canada’s C$21 billion ($15.9 billion) portfolio have taken a novel approach to remain in growth mode as the pension plans continue to derisk.

The 65-person team, formerly known as Air Canada Pension Investments, now manages money under a new entity, Trans-Canada Capital Inc., according to Vincent Morin, president of Montreal-based TCC. The firm operates as an investment manager, allowing the team to manage external clients’ assets.

The team is half composed of investment staff, which internally manage about 80% of Air Canada’s portfolio, with the other half including individuals in operations, accounting and other roles, Mr. Morin said. All ACPI team members transferred to TCC on Jan. 1, he added.

The launch of TCC comes as Air Canada seeks regulatory approval to form its own life insurance company, which would position the team to also manage insurance assets as Air Canada looks to buy annuities to offload pension liabilities.

Air Canada aims to annuitize about C$10 billion of its total portfolio, Mr. Morin confirmed. Buying annuities from a new Air Canada insurance company would essentially transfer assets and liabilities to one entity from another but would allow TCC to retain the assets under management, Mr. Morin said.

TCC is currently focused on managing Air Canada’s pension assets as well as the assets of other institutional investors. But in the future, the money manager might offer its services to retail clients “when the time is right,” Mr. Morin said.

Air Canada administers eight defined benefit plans that are all closed to new entrants, excluding three plans that are offered as a “hybrid structure combining a DB and DC component,” Mr. Morin said.

Air Canada’s request to create a life insurance company is still under review by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, though the company hopes for approval in the next few months, he said.

In August 2018, Air Canada announced it would create a life insurance company, noting that the large size of the pension fund “dwarfs the ability of the Canadian annuity market to absorb such a large investment and the associated risk,” Christopher Hiscock, chairman of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers Air Canada pension committee, wrote in a memo to IAMAW union members at the time.

Benoit Labrosse, a Montreal-based partner and vice president at Morneau Shepell’s asset and risk management consulting practice, said that in 2019, insurers’ appetite for such annuity purchase deals in Canada was about C$5 billion.

“If they wanted to offload to an insurer, there is not enough demand among insurers to take on these liabilities that Air Canada has. They are in the process of creating this insurance company to do it themselves,” Mr. Labrosse said. Air Canada’s pension plan had about C$21 billion in assets as of Sept 30.

Prior to 2012, annuity purchases were a C$1 billion market in Canada, and have since grown to $C5 billion, “which is quite amazing growth,” though it will still take time until insurers are able to deploy capital to handle a transaction to meet Air Canada’s needs, Mr. Labrosse said in a follow-up email.

“The largest transaction to be handed to a single insurer is approximately C$550 million. The largest single-day transaction is close to C$900 million spread among multiple insurers. We are still far from the volume required to absorb Air Canada. Again, it’s a question of prudently deploying capital for Canadian insurers,” he said.

Now that Air Canada’s pension investment team is operating under a separate entity, TCC staff will be able to manage insurance assets as well as other non-traditional investments by opening their investment management services to external clients, Mr. Morin said.

“We wanted to look at ways to continue our growth,” he added.

Air Canada’s pension fund now has a C$2 billion-plus surplus on a solvency basis — a major turnaround from the $2.6 billion deficit it faced when Mr. Morin joined the investment team in 2009.

As for its headcount, TCC is also aiming for growth in a “controlled” fashion, according to Mr. Morin. “We are slowly growing the team as the needs appear. We’ve been (hiring) in 2019 and have continued to grow our team to serve our clients and future clients,” he said.

With a portfolio increasingly moving to bonds, leadership for the Air Canada plan would have been challenged to attract and retain the best talent, Morneau Shepell’s Mr. Labrosse said. “If you have a group of people managing a portfolio that will slowly become a fixed-income portfolio over time, then your talent will most likely be seeking a place where there is a better opportunity.”

As of Sept. 30, 85% of Air Canada’s portfolio was invested in bonds, 20% in alternatives, 10% in equities and 10% in a portable alpha or hedge fund program, according to Mr. Morin, who noted the allocation totals 125% due to the fund using leverage.

Air Canada’s decision to retool its internal pension investment team into a money management firm is a rare move, but one that has occurred before at another airline.

Founded in 1986, American Beacon Advisors Inc., Irving, Texas, manages the retirement fund assets of American Airlines. The company was launched as an asset management subsidiary of AMR Corp., then parent company of American Airlines, but was sold in 2008, with AMR retaining a 10% equity stake in the firm and later selling the remaining stake.

As of Dec. 31, 2018, American Beacon Advisors managed approximately $10.5 billion in defined benefit and other health and welfare plan assets for American Airlines, as well as “certain underlying investment options” in American Airline’s 401(k) plan, a spokesman for American Beacon Advisors said.

At TCC, the firm offers four investment strategies to external clients: a multistrategy hedge fund — available to global institutional investors, including pension funds, endowments, foundations and family offices — as well as two fixed-income strategies and a hedge fund of funds available to Canadian institutional clients, Mr. Morin said.

So far, TCC has one Canadian institution invested in its flagship internally managed multistrategy hedge fund, which Mr. Morin declined to name. The manager is also planning to launch additional investment strategies and is working on an active equity fund and alternative private market fund, he said.

The minimum investment is C$5 million, and fees will be “very competitive,” Mr. Morin said, declining to provide further fee information.

According to Morneau Shepell’s Mr. Labrosse, TCC will “have no choice but to charge competitive fees” to attract clients because it is “still a relatively small manager when you compare them with the other big asset managers in Canada.”

Jana Steele, a Toronto-based partner in the pensions and benefits group at law firm Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP, said there is “an assumption of risk” involved with the Air Canada subsidiary taking on external clients, such as being aware of the fiduciary duties of other pension funds.

Furthermore, Julien Ranger, a Montreal-based partner in Osler’s pensions and benefits group, said one area that TCC would need to be mindful of from a fiduciary perspective is hiring a third party to advise the company.

If the third party, for instance, is related to or already working with parent company Air Canada, TCC would “need to consider their fiduciary obligations” as a money manager, he said.

Alright, good article, it helps set the foundations for my comment below. 

I think the main point I want to get across here is Trans-Canada Capital is a new asset manager run by a highly experienced team which continues to manage Air Canada's pension assets very diligently. 

More importantly, it's open for new clients and can offer a lot to even the most sophisticated clients who have access to the world's best hedge funds and add a meaningful, uncorrolated source of alpha.

I can't stress that last point enough. Yes, large and small Canadian and US corporate plans should approach TCC to meet their investment targets, but I also think the CPPIBs, OMERS,IMCOs, OPTrust, BCIs, PSPs, CalPERS, CalSTRS, etc. of this world should strongly consider allocating to their multi-strategy hedge fund (and even their fixed income funds but the big shops do that internally).

Why not HOOPP? HOOPP already does a lot of these strategies internally. In fact, I remember having a conversation with HOOPP's former CEO, Jim Keohane, on Air Canada Pension and he told me: "We know them well, they're very good."

Jean Michel, IMCO's current CIO, was the former President and CEO of Air Canada Pension, and he modeled a lot of the changes at Air Canada Pension post-2009 based on HOOPP's approach.

Vincent Morin and his team have taken it to another level and now want to broaden their expertise to offer their asset management services to external clients. 

The fact that their corporate sponsor, Air Canada, backed this new entity tells you a lot. They did their homework and they trust these managers can continue delivering on their mandate and grow their assets by attracting new clients.
 
It's critically important to note TCC are asset managers, they're not competing with CAAT's DB Plus or OPTrust Select by offering DB plans to new members. 

Instead, they are offering their asset management expertise to clients looking to bolster their risk-adjusted returns in a meaningful way. 
 
Below, you can see the TCC story and key highlights:
 


Now, they are pension experts, can offer some expert advice on plan design and how to better manage assets and liabilities but they're not competing with consultants and actuaries even though two of their senior members (Vincent one of them) are actuaries who previously worked at large consulting shops.

Just look at the bios of the four gentlemen I spoke with:



Simon Guyard, Senior Portfolio Manager, works with Marc-André Soublière, SVP Fixed Income and Derivatives, scanning volatility curves all around the world, to look for great relative value trades.

I used to work with Marc-André at PSP Investments years ago and can tell you he is one of the best tactical asset allocation managers in Canada. He really understands macro trends and vol regimes extremely well and knows when to buy and sell vol.
 
He and Simon Lamy, former senior fixed income portfolio manager at CDPQ, are two of the best fixed income managers I've ever met, they really understand how to find the best risk-adjusted trades using al financial instruments and they understand the Canadian and US markets extremely well.

In fact, I told the guys they should hire Simon if he's interested.

Anyway, the multi-strategy fund manages a little over $1 billion and there's a committee overseeing all the positions there.


For example, out of 130 positions, 90 are relative value trades and 40 are systematic/ discretionary.
 
They gave me a some trade examples in their multi-strategy fund:


 


Just like HOOPP and OTPP, they use derivatives extensively to express their trades, and have a strong front, middle and back office to monitor all these trades.

 
Vincent Morin told me they wanted to make sure everything was extremely tight from a governance and compliance point of view prior to accepting new clients.


How good is their performance? Well, their fixed income funds deliver 3% above benchmark and that's without being overexposed to credit risk (top decile performance). Most of this alpha is added in Canadian markets.

Their multi-strategy fund has delivered 4-5% annually with less than 10% volatility and only had one down year over the last seven years (2018):


Marc-André told me "you're not always going to be right" which is true but they have managed to deliver a really solid performance that can rival that of any top hedge fund or alpha shop.

What else? Nelson Lam, SVP Equity and Alternative Investments, told me their external hedge funds have delivered 14% net annualized over the years and he has two managers who strip out "residual beta" from other managers.

On private equity, they do a lot of co-investments and Vincent explained to me they have a super fast turnaround time (2-3 days) which makes them the partner of choice when GPs are looking for a co-investor.
 
At one point, Marc-André told me when Air Canada Pension went from a $2 billion deficit to a $2 billion surplus, "only $1 billion of that was LDI" and the rest was from investment gains. 

It shows you they really know what they're doing internally and with their external managers.

Lastly, I asked Simon Guyard who was a bit quiet to describe to me the atmosphere at TCC.

Simon told me it’s "very collegial and there's no hierarchy, anyone can bring ideas forth."

I said there's no room for conceited jerks when managing billions.

Vincent Morin interjected: "No, we are short egos here."

Anyway, I thank all these gentlemen for taking some time to talk shop with me and would ask my readers to reach out to Vincent Morin (vmorin@transcanadacapital.com) or Nelson Lam (nlam@transcanadacapital.com) if you want to see the presentations and set up a more detailed discussion.

Again, these are experienced pension managers and asset managers, they really know what they're doing and it is well worth your time to reach out to them. 

Below, this year's virtual  Mechoui (7th Edition) featuring a discussion between Vincent MorinPresident, Trans-Canada Capital, and Caroline Côté, Managing Director, Funds, Private Markets, Quebec and International Venture Capital, CPDQ (fast forward to minute 36 to listen to their discussion but all presentations are worth listening to).

Bravo to Caroline Côté and Vincent Morin, they did a great job!


CPP Investments Selects First-Ever CIO

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Pensions & Investments reports that CPPIB selects first-ever CIO:

Edwin Cass was named the first dedicated chief investment officer of the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Toronto, the C$434.4 billion ($317.8 billion) pension fund said Wednesday.

The newly created role of CIO will, in part, address the “anticipated size and scale of CPP Investments by 2025 and beyond,” the news release said.

As CIO, Mr. Cass is responsible for responsible for “total fund management, including capital allocation between investment programs, long-term investment department signals, and medium- and near-term portfolio guidance and balance sheet management.”

Prior to Mr. Cass’ appointment, the CIO function was “distributed between the CEO office, the chief investment strategist and at the investment department level,” a spokesman at CPPIB said in an email.

Senior managing directors in CPPIB’s investment department “will continue to be responsible for department-level portfolio construction, security selection and asset management, and they will continue to report directly to the CEO,” the spokesman added.

Mr. Cass, who was previously global head of real assets, will work closely with President and CEO Mark Machin, Chief Financial and Risk Officer Neil Beaumont and investment department leaders to “strengthen the organization’s investment governance even further with the aim of generating greater performance gains,” the news release said.

Mr. Cass will continue to report to Mr. Machin in his new role.

Mr. Cass joined CPPIB in 2008 and went on to hold various roles within public markets. He was also the pension fund’s chief investment strategist from 2014 to 2017, according to the news release.

“Our investment governance structure has served CPP Investments well for many years,” Mr. Machin said in a statement in the news release. “However, the fund is on a trajectory to grow to $1 trillion by 2033. The time is right in CPP Investments’ evolution to create a dedicated, fit-for-purpose, chief investment officer role.”

Deborah Orida, who was senior managing director and global head of active equities, was appointed global head of real assets, assuming Mr. Cass’ former role, the pension fund also said Wednesday.

Following an internal selection process, a new senior managing director and global head of active equities are to be announced at CPPIB.

CPP Investments put out a press release on these important appointments:
Today, Mark Machin, President & Chief Executive Officer of Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments), announced the following senior executive changes and appointments, effective immediately:
  • Edwin Cass is appointed as CPP Investments’ first dedicated Chief Investment Officer (CIO). In this newly created role, Ed will work closely with the CEO, the Chief Financial and Risk Officer and investment department leaders to strengthen the organization’s investment governance even further with the aim of generating greater performance gains. He will continue to report to the CEO. Ed joined CPP Investments in 2008 and held various positions within Public Markets. He was also the organization’s Chief Investment Strategist from 2014-2017 and was most recently Global Head of Real Assets. With more than 25 years of investment experience, Ed previously held senior positions at Fortress Management Group, Deutsche Bank Canada and TD Securities. Ed holds a BS (Hons) in Theoretical Physics from Queen’s University and a Bachelor of Laws (LLB) degree from York University’s Osgoode Hall Law School.
  • Deborah Orida is appointed Senior Managing Director & Global Head of Real Assets, where she will be responsible for the Global Real Assets program, which encompasses Energy & Resources, Infrastructure, Power & Renewables, Real Estate and Portfolio Value Creation. Deborah was most recently Senior Managing Director & Global Head of Active Equities. She joined CPP Investments in 2009 and has held senior leadership roles including Managing Director, Head of Private Equity Asia, which she led after establishing the Relationship Investments Asia portfolio from Hong Kong. With more than 25 years of investment experience, Deborah spent nine years at Goldman Sachs in New York and Toronto. Deborah holds an LLB and BA from Queen’s University, Canada and an MBA from The Wharton School, at the University of Pennsylvania.

“Our investment governance structure has served CPP Investments well for many years. However, the Fund is on a trajectory to grow to $1 trillion by 2033. The time is right in CPP Investments’ evolution to create a dedicated, fit-for-purpose, Chief Investment Officer role,” said Mark Machin, President & CEO, CPP Investments. “Ed is very well positioned for this role, with his considerable investment expertise, enterprise-wide knowledge and global experience. The appointment of Deborah as Global Head of Real Assets continues to demonstrate CPP Investments’ deep bench strength of proven investment leaders.”

The CIO role was created to effectively address the anticipated size and scale of CPP Investments by 2025 and beyond. As CIO, Ed is responsible for total Fund management, including capital allocation between investment programs, long-term investment department signals, medium- and near-term portfolio guidance and balance sheet management. Investment department leaders will continue to be responsible for the execution of portfolio strategy for their respective investment departments.

The new Senior Managing Director & Global Head of Active Equities will be announced in due course after an internal selection process.

Earlier this afternoon, I had a nice chat with Mark Machin, CPP Investments' President and CEO.

I want to begin by thanking him for taking time to talk to me about these important appointments and also thank Michel Leduc, Senior Managing Director, Global Head of Public Affairs & Communications at CPP investments, for reaching out to me this morning and setting this call up.

Let me begin by stating the most critical part of my conversation with Mark. These appointments weren't done in response to the pandemic, they weren't done because CPP Investments is in big trouble, they have been in the works for years, they will bolster the organization and "it's business as usual at CPP Investments."

If anything, the pandemic delayed this announcement because they had other more pressing short-term issues to address.

What else? Mark Machin's health is just fine, he's not stepping down, he continues to love his job and is more excited and more engaged than ever and feels very "blessed and humbled" to be leading this organization and make sure over 20 million Canadians keep getting their CPP pensions.

I had to get this out of the way because the minute this announcement hit the wire, the rumor mills started swirling, most of it is pure rubbish.

So why was Ed Cass appointed to this new "fit-for-purpose" CIO role? 

Mark Machin reiterated what was stated in the press release:

“Our investment governance structure has served CPP Investments well for many years. However, the Fund is on a trajectory to grow to $1 trillion by 2033. The time is right in CPP Investments’ evolution to create a dedicated, fit-for-purpose, Chief Investment Officer role,” said Mark Machin, President & CEO, CPP Investments. “Ed is very well positioned for this role, with his considerable investment expertise, enterprise-wide knowledge and global experience. The appointment of Deborah as Global Head of Real Assets continues to demonstrate CPP Investments’ deep bench strength of proven investment leaders.”

He told me the Chief Actuary of Canada projects CPP's assets will grow to more than $1 CAD trillion sometime between 2033 and 2044. 

He has been thinking hard about this over the last four years and realized the current investment governance structure has served the organization well over the last 21 years but change was needed as assets mushroom.

As the press release states: "The CIO role was created to effectively address the anticipated size and scale of CPP Investments by 2025 and beyond."

He came up with this "fit-for-purpose" CIO role which isn't exactly like what other CIOs do. 

"We have great investment leaders at the Fund. For example, Shane Feeney knows private equity, he can invest in top funds, do direct deals (co-investments). John Graham is in charge of credit, he and his team know what they're doing, etc. We don't need a CIO who reaches down for security selection."

Moreover, Mark told me each investment leader will continue reporting to him and he will still steer investment committees and has the right to veto decisions but "it defeats the purpose when you ave a dedicated CIO."

So what exactly will Ed Cass be doing? As the press release states, he will work closely with the CEO, the Chief Financial and Risk Officer and investment department leaders to strengthen the organization’s investment governance even further with the aim of generating greater performance gains. He will continue to report to the CEO. 

More specifically, he is responsible for total Fund management, including capital allocation between investment programs, long-term investment department signals, medium- and near-term portfolio guidance and balance sheet management. Investment department leaders will continue to be responsible for the execution of portfolio strategy for their respective investment departments.

Basically, from what I understand of the role, he will be recommending capital allocation to various asset classes based on short-tern and medium-term trends. 

Each investment leader will continue reporting to Mark Machin as will Ed Cass but it's Cass's job to make sure they are allocating to the right strategies/ asset classes across public and private markets.

That's a huge responsibility at a fund the size of CPP Investments but Mark told me he has "huge confidence in Ed" and has worked closely with him since joining back in 2012.

I mentioned that there are other excellent candidates at CPP Investments who could have been CIO and specifically mentioned Geoff Rubin, Senior Managing Director & Chief Investment Strategist of Total Fund Management.


Mark agreed, told me "Geoff is incredible and highly qualified " as are others in the organization but in the end, Ed Cass was selected for this new role because he had experience in public and private markets (was most recently Global Head of Real Assets) as well as international experience having worked in the London office.

It's this combination of public market experience, private markets experience and running a global business which landed Cass this coveted job.

Interestingly, in 2018, Ed Cass came in number 5 in Institutional Investor's Most Wanted Allocators: First team and here is what they wrote about him: 

Cass “could be the CEO of any fund in the world, let alone the CIO,” one industry insider says. “Not that it looks like he’s having any fun. He’s a bit like Eeyore, a contrarian.” Cass took over the real assets arm to fill a need for solid leadership, adding yet another CPPIB division to the list of groups he’s run. The question about Cass is not whether he’s wanted as a CIO — he is — but rather if he wants to be one.

How prophetic! And let me make another prediction, if all goes smoothly, Ed Cass will succeed Mark Machin when the time comes and Geoff Rubin will be the next CIO. 

Deborah Orida will be replacing Ed Cass as the next Global Head of Real Assets. 

Mark Machin spoke very highly of her too. And he filled me in, stating she has the requisite experience in private markets to take on this new role.

In fact, he specifically mentioned she's a lawyer by training who did M&A work at Goldman and ran Relationship Investing for CPP Investments in Asia.  

She's obviously more than qualified to take on this new role and when I look at her experience and qualifications, I wonder if she might be the next CEO or CIO:


Clearly, CPP Investments has incredible bench strength, it's what you'd expect for the biggest and best pension fund in Canada.

One thing I did mention to Mark Machin was how the pandemic has hit certain segments of private markets very hard, like retail real estate and transportation infrastructure assets (toll roads, ports and airports).

I told him with all due respect to Brookfield's CEO, Bruce Flatt, I'm convinced there's a paradigm shift going on in real estate which is why sovereign wealth funds are rethinking once reliable real estate.

I'm convinced there is something profound going on and I'm seeing evidence of this every week:

Mark told me CPP Investments' Thematic group did a deep dive into these trends and found "some things will stick" and that I should talk to Deborah one day to gain more insights (I will).

What else did we talk about? In a world of zero or negative rates, where should pensions invest? 

Mark mentioned Bridgewater's studies on a zero bound world and how they allocated 5% to gold.

"We aren't there yet and not sure we will ever do that but it's the type of things we need to think carefully about."

I told him I have tremendous respect for Bridgewater and its founder, I was one of the first to invest in their Pure Alpha fund back in 2000 when I was investing in directional hedge funds at CDPQ and even met Ray Dalio subsequently when I worked at PSP.

Told him flat out: "I like Ray and some (not all) of his principles, think they're running a great shop but I don't agree with everything they recommend or do there." 

I also have strong opinions of my own on deflation and there's nothing Ray or Stan Druckenmiller will say to change my mind.

We ended our discussion by talking about diversity and inclusion at the workplace.

I told Mark I posted this article on LinkedIn going over how the pandemic has affected people with progressive multiple sclerosis (MS):

"Minimal effects were not what we expected to see," said Dr. Chiaravalloti, noting that the findings were consistent across different continents. "People with progressive MS appeared to have adapted more effectively to the lockdown conditions. Knowing their increased risk, they may have been early adopters of safety precautions, which may have provided a sense of control that countered negative emotional reactions," she speculated. "They are also accustomed to living with medical uncertainly and social isolation, two major factors that fueled high levels of psychological discomfort in the general population." 

I shared my thoughts on this study on LinkedIn:

Of course, the findings of this study don’t surprise me. MS and all chronic diseases teach you the values of resistance, persistence, kindness, empathy and a lot more. What is sad is these people living in social isolation while companies talk up diversity and inclusion. In reality, public and private organizations are doing nothing to reach out to people with disabilities or chronic diseases to help them become gainfully employed and combat the scourge of unacceptably high unemployment among these groups. That’s why I’m very cynical when I see companies talk up how they value diversity and inclusion. It’s easy to talk it up while you systematically discriminate against the most vulnerable and disadvantaged groups. What this study shows is these people are a lot stronger than you think and are a source of inspiration, strength and true diversity at any workplace. 

As you can read, I don't mince my words, especially on issues I feel very strongly about.

I asked Mark Machin to do what he has always done, be a great leader and start doing something to incorporate more Canadians with disabilities at CPP Investments.

Mark told me hiring more people with disabilities is something he has discussed with his senior managers and he takes diversity and inclusion very seriously and is always trying to improve it.

On that note, I'm running late, I thank Mark Machin once again for taking the time to chat with me, he's a superb leader and I truly love talking with him, super nice and smart guy.  

Below, former MetricStream CEO Shellye Archambeau discusses how boardrooms are talking about improving diversity with CNBC's Scott Wapner.

Scott Wapner also talks about how companies are committing to building a diverse boardroom with Merck CEO Ken Frazier and Les Brun of the Sarr Group. Great discussion, take the time to watch these clips.

CDPQ and DP World Expand Port Platform

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Ship Technology reports DP World and CDPQ to expand port investment platform:

Port operator DP World and its partner Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ) have announced plans to expand their investment platform for ports and terminals with an additional commitment of $4.5bn.

This will increase the total platform size to $8.2bn.

In December 2016, the companies announced their partnership to create a $3.7bn platform to invest in ports and terminals worldwide.

DP World owns a 55% stake in the platform, while the remaining 45% is held by CDPQ.

So far, the platform has invested in ten port terminals around the world and across different stages of the lifecycle of the asset.

The enhanced platform is expected to target assets around the world with an increased focus to expand the footprint in current locations, including Europe and the Asia Pacific.

The investment platform will follow its implementation and diversification goals with the expansion to the wider parts of the integrated maritime supply chain.

DP World group chairman and CEO Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem said: “The partnership between DP World and CDPQ has been very successful and we have benefited from each other’s expertise. 

“The opportunity landscape for the port and logistics industry is significant and the outlook remains positive as consumer demand triggers major shifts across the global supply chain.

“Best-in-class well-connected ports and efficient supply chains will continue to play an active role in advancing global trade and cultivating the business environments closest to their operations.

“Alongside CDPQ, a steadfast partner whose long-term vision we share, we look forward to working together on new investments that will connect key international trade locations worldwide.”

In May, CDPQ acquired a 45% interest in DP World Chile.

In February, DP World and CDPQ acquired Canada’s Fraser Surrey Docks from Macquarie Infrastructure Partners (MIP). 

CDPQ put out a press release on this deal last week: 

  • DP World and CDPQ global investment platform established in 2016
  • Platform has achieved its investment target of US$3.7 billion since launching, investing in 10 port terminals and financing the development of its existing portfolio
  • Current portfolio of ports and terminals spans across North America, Latin America and Asia Pacific 
  • DP World and CDPQ will explore opportunities to expand in existing and new geographies with new US$4.5 billion commitment
  • Platform will also explore new investments in diversified and integrated supply chain support services

DP World, a global infrastructure-led supply chain solutions provider, and Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ), a global institutional investor, announce the expansion of their ports and terminals investment through a new commitment of US$4.5 billion, that will increase the total size of the platform to US$8.2 billion. DP World holds 55% share of the platform, and CDPQ the remaining 45%.

Since its launch in December 2016, the platform has invested in 10 port terminals globally and across various stages of the asset life cycle. The enhanced platform will continue to target assets globally, but with an increased scope to broaden its footprint in existing geographies, as well as new regions such as Europe and Asia Pacific. The investment platform will pursue its deployment and diversification objectives by expanding across a wider part of the integrated marine supply chain, such as logistics services linked to terminals.

Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem, Group Chairman and CEO, DP World, said:“The partnership between DP World and CDPQ has been very successful, and we have benefited from each other’s expertise. The opportunity for the port and logistics industry is significant and the outlook remains positive as consumer demand triggers major shifts across the global supply chain.Best-in-class, well connected ports and efficient supply chains will continue to play an active role in advancing global trade and cultivating the business environments closest to their operations. Alongside CDPQ, a steadfast partner whose long-term vision we share, we look forward to working together on new investments that will connect key international trade locations worldwide.”

Emmanuel Jaclot, Executive Vice-President and Head of Infrastructure at CDPQ, said:“Building on the success of the first collaboration with our strategic partner, DP World, a world-class leader in ports and marine terminals, the enhanced platform will seek investments in high-quality port and terminal infrastructure assets that will help design the future of smart trade and logistics. As we take the next step in our partnership, we will further diversify our geographic reach and look to seize new opportunities in a sector that, even during a uniquely challenging period, is driven by long-term fundamental trends.”

Despite the impacts of COVID‑19 and shifts in the global supply chain landscape, the ports sector has demonstrated a fair degree of resilience. Through recent strategic investments in automation and digital technology, DP World has strengthened its logistics capabilities, combined with their maritime services operations and worldwide network of ports and terminals, to provide a full suite of end-to-end smart supply chain solutions. As such, DP World is well positioned to face the current challenges experienced by the industry and to continue to provide innovative solutions to their customers worldwide.

This is a fantastic deal for CDPQ, expanding the initial one which was announced back in December 2016:

DP World announces the creation of an investment vehicle in partnership with Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ), one of North America’s largest pension fund managers. The investment platform totals CA$ 5 billion (US$ 3.7 billion), with DP World holding a 55% share and CDPQ the remaining 45%.

The platform will invest in ports and terminals globally (excluding the UAE) across the life cycle of the asset, with a focus on investment grade countries. It will also invest mostly in existing assets, but with up to 25% invested in greenfield opportunities. Through this platform, DP World will share new investment opportunities and CDPQ will have the option of co-investing alongside DP World.

The investment vehicle will be seeded with two of DP World’s Canadian container terminals, located on the Pacific Coast in Vancouver and Prince Rupert, with CDPQ acquiring a 45% stake of the combined assets for CA$ 865 million (US$ 640 million).

Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem, Group Chairman and CEO, DP World, said:“As a global trade enabler, DP World is proud to announce the partnership with CDPQ to invest in growth opportunities in port and terminal businesses around the world.

In CDPQ we have found a partner with shared vision who is willing to participate in the risk and reward of investing throughout the life cycle of trade-enabling assets across the globe. The partial monetization of our Canadian assets further strengthens our balance sheet.

The opportunity landscape in the port and terminal sector remains significant and this partnership offers us greater flexibility to capitalise on these opportunities while maintaining a strong balance sheet and retaining control.

By combining our in-depth knowledge of container handling and CDPQ’s expertise in infrastructure investing and long-term horizon, we can continue to develop the port and terminal sector globally.”

Michael Sabia, President and CEO, CDPQ, added:“Through this new investment platform with DP World, a world-class port and terminal operator, CDPQ will have unique access to high-quality transactions, and the opportunity to invest in the best port infrastructure worldwide. As a first step, we are pleased to announce two key investments in British Columbia. We look forward to leveraging our in-house infrastructure expertise and DP World’s strong track record in the port sector to deliver attractive long-term returns for our clients.”

Recall, a little over a year ago, I discussed CDPQ's first investment in Chile's port:

Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ) has acquired a 45% stake in DP World Chile, which operates terminals in Puerto Central and Puerto Lirquen, serving Chilean consumption and industrial centers. This is CDPQ's first infrastructure investment in Chile and the transaction will be executed at the same price as DP World’s acquisition of the asset in April 2019:

Two years ago, CDPQ partnered with DP World to create a US$3.7-billion platform to invest in ports and terminals globally. DP World holds 55% of the platform and CDPQ holds the remaining 45%. The two new assets in Chile join a portfolio of ports, which includes terminals in Vancouver and Prince Rupert in Canada, that are already owned by the platform.

This is our first infrastructure acquisition in Chile and our first Latin American ports. It marks an important step in the growth of our platform with DP World and aligns well with its geographic diversification objective,” stated Emmanuel Jaclot, Executive Vice-President and Head of Infrastructure at CDPQ. “We are delighted to continue working alongside DP World, a strategic partner for CDPQ that has a long track record in the port business and provides us with access to high-quality investment opportunities.”
DP World is a leading enabler of global trade and an integral part of the supply chain. Container handling is the company’s core business and generates more than 50% of its revenue.

The company has long-standing relationships with governments, shipping lines, importers and exporters, communities, and many other important constituents of the global supply chain.

In 2018, DP World handled 71.4 million TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units) across their portfolio. With its committed pipeline of developments and expansions, the current gross capacity of 91.2 million TEU is expected to rise in line with market demand.

This is another long-term infrastructure deal where CDPQ will benefit from growth in Latin America. Recall, CDPQ signed deals to co-invest in Colombia's infrastructure, so this is another exciting opportunity to invest in Chilean infrastructure.
Now, obviously the global pandemic hit all transportation infrastructure assets hard, especially airports and toll roads, but I found this passage in CDPQ's press release above interesting:
Despite the impacts of COVID‑19 and shifts in the global supply chain landscape, the ports sector has demonstrated a fair degree of resilience. Through recent strategic investments in automation and digital technology, DP World has strengthened its logistics capabilities, combined with their maritime services operations and worldwide network of ports and terminals, to provide a full suite of end-to-end smart supply chain solutions. As such, DP World is well positioned to face the current challenges experienced by the industry and to continue to provide innovative solutions to their customers worldwide.
So, according to this, ports demonstrated a fair degree of resilience but don't kid yourselves, ports were hit and the pandemic created logistical nightmares when they reopened:

Now, it is true that different ports were hit differently throughout the last six months depending on where they were located. It's not fair to use the Port of Los Angeles which is the busiest seaport in the western hemisphere to extrapolate trends everywhere.
 
Generally speaking, the ports that got hit the hardest initially were the ones that trade the most with China but volumes at these ports, including the Port of Vancouver, have rebounded.

Longer term, we don't know the effects of the pandemic on ports because we don't know how the pandemic will impact global GDP (port revenues are tied to global trade and global GDP), but there's no doubt ports are resilient and here to stay.

DP World is a unique operator with a proven business model which allowed them to adapt quickly to the pandemic. 

And while they do have ports in North America, like Prince Rupert, they operate ports all over the world and this diversification also helped them weather the storm.

For CDPQ, they partnered up with a great port operator, one of the best in the world, and are co-investing alongside them on all these ports. 

For its part, DP World gets a great partner with deep pockets and a long investment horizon. It can expand its operations all over the world and diversify the risk.

In other words, it's a win-win for all parties.

On another topic, this morning I listened to virtual talk featuring Nathalie Palladitcheff, President and Chief Executive Officer of Ivanhoé Cambridge, CDPQ's real estate subsidiary.

Ms. Palladitcheff was being interviewed by Michel Leblanc, President of Montreal's Chamber of Commerce, and she discussed accelerating real estate trends: adapting, innovating, engaging:


It was a great discussion (in French) and Ms. Palladitcheff was superb, very fluently and cogently answering all questions, even some tough ones.

She emphasized three critical points of real estate: flexibility, technology and service.

She discussed the "emotional aspects" of real estate and how important it is to add value to these assets so it can be a place where people go to escape and enjoy working away from home.

She said following the pandemic (but even before), there are cyclical and structural changes going on in real estate. The rise of e-commerce has led to more demand for logistics properties and the pandemic accelerated this trend.

Interestingly, she said retail malls aren't dead. They shed many retail assets but invested in others (Eaton center) and she said they invested in Montreal's downtown core (Queen Elizabeth hotel, Manulife office building and Eaton center) and believe when the REM is completed, it will benefit the downtown core (true but thank god it wasn’t completed now).

She talked a lot about international and sector diversification, stating not all regions were hit the same and that they are focusing on logistics in Europe and Asia but also investing in mobile homes in the US which I found interesting (unless I didn't get that part). 

According to her, multifamily assets will continue doing well in a challenging economic environment but traditional offices will suffer which is why she said it's really important to add value to these assets.

She talked about the need for diversity at an organizational level and how different viewpoints from within her office and from their partners around the world have enriched their working environment.

She discussed the "S" in ESG investing and how important it is in their operations and that of all their partners. She said deep knowledge of local markets is crucial which is why it's important to have great partners with boots on the ground.

Lastly, she discussed how real estate is undergoing changes but it remains one of the most important asset classes for pensions because it provides steady cash flows and price appreciation if you can properly execute on your value creation plan.

"Real estate is indispensable in a world where we live most of our life indoors."

I'm giving you the major highlights and admittedly need to review this clip again but it was well worth the $40 I spent to listen to her speak, she's an exceptional leader and communicates extremely effectively in her native French.

That's it from me, another packed day which included a Zoom meeting with someone representing Chinese asset managers and a long and interesting phone conversation with a former colleague of mine from PSP who brought some great research on total fund management he's working on to my attention (more on this in the weeks ahead).

Lastly, if there are still people out there who aren't taking COVID-19 seriously, take the time to read this:

 
It's deadly serious, there's still a lot we don't know about this virus, so don't take it lightly.

Below, some clips on DP World which explain why it's one of the best port operators in the world. CDPQ is very lucky to have partnered up with this company to expand its investments in ports and terminals worldwide.

Markets Struggle to Find an Equilibrium?

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Fred Imbert of CNBC reports the Nasdaq closes lower to end its worst week since March as tech continues to struggle:

The Nasdaq Composite fell in another volatile session on Friday as the continuing tech sell-off drove the benchmark to its worst week in months. 

The Nasdaq closed 0.6% lower at 10,853.55. At its session high, the composite rose as much as 1%; it was down more than 1.7% at one point as well. Apple dropped 1.3% and Amazon fell by 1.9%. Facebook, Alphabet and Microsoft were all down.

Tech selling briefly picked up after Bloomberg News reported, citing sources, that SoftBank was considering changes to its options trading strategy. Last week, SoftBank was identified as the “Nasdaq whale” that bought billions in stock options in a bet for higher prices in Big Tech. 

The S&P 500 eked out a small gain after gyrating between solid gains and steep losses. The broader-market index closed about 0.1% higher at 3,340.97. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day up 131.06 points, or 0.5%, at 27,665.64. The 30-stock average was up 294.24 points, or 1.1%, at its session high and fell as much as 86.46 points. 

“Markets continue to struggle finding an equilibrium,” said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide. “This market is more akin to the emotional swings of March and April than in recent months. We are likely to continue in a period of directionless volatility as bulls and bears wrestle between the strong Fed liquidity and improving economic backdrop and the continued uncertainty and elevated valuations.”

All three of the major averages posted steep losses for the week. The Nasdaq fell 4.1% week to date for its biggest weekly decline since March. The S&P 500 had its worst one-week performance since June, falling 2.5%. The Dow fell 1.7% this week. 

“The next couple of sessions will be crucial in judging the possible extent of the pullback, and bulls will be looking for signs of positive divergences as the major indices approach their 50-day moving averages,” said Ken Berman, strategist at Gorilla Trades.

Big Tech was also down sharply week to date. Facebook and Amazon each lost more than 5% this week. Apple and Netflix slid 7.4% and 6.6%, respectively. Alphabet and Microsoft were both down more than 4% week to date. Tesla, meanwhile, plunged 10.9% this week. At the S&P 500 sector level, tech fell 4.4% week to date for its biggest one-week loss since March.

Wall Street was coming off a session in which the major averages closed sharply lower after a steep downturn in tech names. Those losses came after the benchmarks gave up solid gains. 

Douglas Busch, founder of ChartSmarter.com, said a “hallmark” of a healthy market is closing near its high after a weak start. “The opposite of that action could be the definition of how the benchmarks fared Thursday,” he said.

“Decent early gains quickly faded, and as many stated last week’s lows were critical to hold,” Busch said in a note to clients. “Perhaps, for the first time in a while, we can say advantage bears.”

The market is on track to post big losses for the holiday-shortened week. The Dow is down 1.6% this week while the S&P 500 has fallen 2.4%, set for its second straight weekly loss for the first time since May. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has dropped 4.2%, and is headed for its worst week since March.

Consumer prices jump in August

The Labor Department said Friday its U.S. consumer price index rose by 0.4% in August. Eonomists polled by Reuters expected an increase of 0.3%.

That larger-than-expected advance was driven the biggest cost increase for used cars and trucks in more than 51 years. 

“The resurgence in economic demand following the pandemic lock down has turned the direction of consumer prices on its head with pent-up purchases from the consumer dramatically changing the deflation trend to an inflation trend,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG. 

It's Friday, time to kick back and look at this week's market action.

If you haven't done so, you should begin by reading last week's market comment on when Nasdaq whales get slaughtered

A lot of the price action this week has been textbook in the sense that after three days of selling, the Nasdaq bulls came in to defend the 50-day moving average on the Nasdaq-100 index (NDX):


It's pretty much the same thing for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which is heavily weighted toward tech (roughly 30%):


So, where do we go from here? It's important to note six mega cap tech names make up 50% of the Nasdaq-100 index and even more if you include the top ten constituents, that's why bulls keep looking at the same stocks to gauge the strength in the Nasdaq:


As you can see, it wasn't a great day for the Nasdaq's top hitters and that leads many market commentators thinking the big tech rally has "exhausted itself" and there's a "healthy rotation going on out growth into value".

The problem with that argument is I don't see it this week in the S&P sector performance:


In fact, Energy (XLE) got hit hard this week, down 6.7% (these are all price, not total returns), followed by Tech (XLK) which slid 5.7%, and the only sector which posted a gain was Materials (XLB), up 1%.

Of course, given the dominance of tech in the overall market, everyone is focused on this dominant sector. 

Andrea Cicione of TS Lombard wrote a comment stating the tech selloff may soon be over - but for how long?:

Bubble behaviour is clearly visible in the marketplace… Calling the top of a bubble is as hard as winning the lottery. The signs of the mature stage of bubble formation are becoming increasingly evident – leveraged risk taking being the main one. However, the surge in call buying that propelled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new highs seems to have started only in late July (see bottom-right chart). This suggests that the risk overhang may not take much longer to unwind.

…but the leverage accumulation so far may not be enough to burst the bubble just yet. If the recent selloff does not intensify further, the whole episode may end up simply emboldening the bulls to buy the dip and take even more risk. The Nasdaq experienced three 17%+ selloffs between 1997 and 1998, only to remerge stronger every time and rise four-fold from the last of those selloffs to the 2000 peak. Leverage is a key characteristic of all bubbles, and almost invariably it is the mechanism that leads to their collapse. But there may not have been enough leverage for the dot-com 2.0 bubble to burst just yet.

Whether or not there's been enough leverage for the dot-com 2.0 remains to be seen, but one thing is for sure, there's plenty of speculative activity and that hasn't subsided which tells me there's more volatility ahead:

And while some well known bulls aren't concerned, one smart quant who correctly predicted last week's rout says the selling isn't over:

Sure, all of the stocks in the FANG+ index have moved out of overbought territory and are now neutral or oversold, but that doesn't mean they can't become more oversold:

Just have a look at how oversold and undervalued global value stocks have become:

Of course, the liquidity guys are telling you there's ample liquidity to drive PEs a lot higher:

In fact, Jeroen Blokland, Multi Asset Portfolio Manager at Robeco, posted this on LinkedIn:

Equities should be trading at a PE of 100! 

Well at least according to one metric. Today’s chart depicts the relationship between excess liquidity, measured as the difference between money supply growth and growth in nominal GDP, and the PE of the S&P 500 Index. The idea behind this is that if there is more money being created than needed for economic growth, in case of excess liquidity, this will find its way into the stock market. The positive relationship between the two lines, the rise in excess liquidity coinciding with the rise in PE, underpins this assumption. Currently, growth in excess liquidity is unprecedented. This is not so surprising considering the Federal Reserve has increased its balance sheet by trillions of USD. It would take a PE of 100(!) for the two lines to converge. Obviously, this is not going to happen, also because nominal GDP growth is expected to bounce back sharply. But it does point out that from a liquidity perspective, valuation looks far from stretched.


I couldn't resist a snide remark:

I surmise you can find many indicators to make up a fairy tale about how tech stocks are only beginning to bubble up but in the end, the market has the final say and the Tech/ momo crowd will get crushed. Be very careful reading too much into this liquidity indicator.

One young analyst posted a nicer comment on LinkedIn:

Very interesting chart, Jeroen! Quoting Martin Zweig’s timeless statement from ‘Winning on Wall Street’, “the monetary climate - primarily the trend in interest rates and Federal Reserve policy - is the dominant factor in determining the stock market’s major direction”

Sure, don't fight the Fed, Marty Zweig, David Tepper, Stanley Druckenmiller and may others have been making a killing over the years reading the tape based n the Fed.

But the Fed has been tapering its asset purchases lately, admittedly nothing huge, and it doesn't seem too concerned about tech stocks selling off. Also, with an upcoming election, it might sit on the sidelines for now.

Speaking of Druckenmiller, he was on CNBC earlier this week warning the stock market is an 'absolute raging mania' and that inflation could reach 10%:

Well, I agree with the first part, not the part on inflation:

Druckemiller is a trading genius, he holds the best long-term track record ever, but he's not always right:

And neither are his hedge fund buddies buying the dip on tech stocks:

There's a reason why portfolios of connected hedge fund managers overlap by as much as 50 percent more than the average. According to new research, they share information which isn’t surprising to those of us who have been tracking their holdings very closely over the years:

Here is what I shared on LinkedIn:

Professional allocators are typically looking for uncorrelated alpha because beta is cheap. What this study demonstrates is there is a lot of herding going on in L/S Equity funds and some multi-strategy funds, which works well when the tech stocks are going to the moon (most of them take concentrated bets in tech stocks), less well when tech stocks are getting slammed. My thinking with hedge funds is why pay 2&20 to a group of hedge funds doing the same thing? If you're going to pay fees, make sure it's to hedge funds which consistently deliver uncorrelated alpha in all market environments (not easy to find them but they exist).

If you don't believe me that there's a lot of herding activity among hedge funds, go check out what top finds bought and sold in Q2.

Anyway, I'm rambling, Here are the top performing large cap stocks this week:


And the worst performing large cap stocks for the week:


As you can see, it wasn't a good week for energy and tech stocks and Lululemon (LULU), down 17% this week but keep it under perspective, the stock ran up a lot since March lows as did another market darling, Peleton (PTON):



I'd be shorting both these stocks on further weakness, think there's a lot of hot air that needs to be let out of these stocks and many more in this ridiculous market that seems to favor dummies:

Alright, let me wrap it all up here, this Friday, September 11th.

I can't believe it has been 19 years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. It is a sad and somber day but let this story bring some solace to some of those who suffered tragic losses that day:

Below, the stock market is in a mania fueled by the Federal Reserve and investor speculation that will end badly in the coming years, longtime hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday.

Second, Degas Wright, Decatur Capital Management chief investment officer, and Steve Weiss, Short Hills Capital, join 'Fast Money Halftime Report' to discuss what's driving the markets and Peloton.

Third, and most important, Jonathon Krinksy of BayCrest Partners joined CNBC's "Halftime Report" Thursday to talk about the trends he is seeing in the market action. Pay very close attention to what he said, it's very insightful from a technical point of view.

Lastly, US commemorates 9/11 with mournful ceremonies and by remembering and honoring the men, women and children killed in the attacks at the World Trade Center site, the Pentagon, aboard Flight 93, and those who died in the February 26, 1993 WTC bombing.

HOOPP's CEO on LDI 2.0 in a Zero Bound World

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Yaelle Gang, the Canadian Investment Review recently wrote a comment on how HOOPP is looking to LDI strategy 2.0 amid low interest rates:

The Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan is well-known for its liability-driven investing strategy, which helped it successfully weather the 2008 financial crisis.

During the coronavirus fallout, in an era of historically low interest rates, the HOOPP is working on developing LDI 2.0. “We’re very focused on liabilities, but what you do when interest rates are at really extreme lows, in our view, is different than what we did in the past,” said Jeff Wendling, the plan’s president and chief executive officer, during Benefits Canada and the Canadian Investment Review‘s 2020 Plan Sponsor Week in mid-August.

In 2006 and 2007, the HOOPP had very large fixed income holdings, he said. “We’ve ridden those fixed income positions all the way down to these lows [in yields] here now and that’s worked out very well for the fund. But at this point, we think fixed income assets provide minimal returns going forward. So that’s a big challenge for us.”

For instance, he noted, fixed income assets don’t hedge the plan’s liabilities as well as they did when yields were higher nor do they provide the same kind of diversification benefits. “We’re really looking right now at what we need to do, or what we can do differently, to generate the returns that we need and manage the risk appropriately.”

Of late, the biggest change the HOOPP has made is implementing an infrastructure program. “That is underway now and I think that will be one of the assets that we’ll use to provide a replacement to some of the returns that we’re looking to get out of the fixed income assets. And I think it provides some hedging benefits as well, whether it’s to inflation or to a decline in rates,” said Wendling.

In addition to infrastructure, the HOOPP has launched an insurance-linked securities program. And although the pension plan has historically been largely internally managed, it’s selectively starting an external manager program focused primarily on hedge fund managers. “We’re looking at other sources of return — types of other return that we need that we’re not going to get from those fixed income assets. Infrastructure is a big part of it. There are many other assets there. I think, at the end of the day, we will also own more equities than we have for the last number of years.”

The pension fund is also changing the mix of its bond portfolio and is looking at diversifying its international exposure to find higher yields, he said.

While Wendling said he believes deflation is a risk, it’s not the plan’s base scenario. “Our primary scenario is that we’re in a low inflation period of time, a low interest rate period of time for a number of years and then we think you may get inflation at some point after that.”

That said, he noted the risk of deflation is why the HOOPP doesn’t want a zero nominal bond portfolio weighting. “We’re going to have significant exposures there and that would actually help us in a deflationary scenario. Those are assets that are very important for liquidity purposes for a fund like HOOPP as well.”

In addition to looking at generating required returns in a low interest environment, Wendling said the HOOPP is also focused on ensuring the fund continues to manage risks well as it grows larger and more complex. “We’re looking at new risk systems to bring into HOOPP, new tools on the risk side and we’re actually going to be hiring our first-ever chief risk officer.”

Of note, the HOOPP entered the coronavirus crisis with a very strong funded position and remains fully funded today.

Alright, this afternoon I had a long discussion with HOOPP's CEO, Jeff Wendling, on its LDI strategy 2.0 amid low interest rates.

Before I get to this discussion, let me first thank Jeff Wendling for taking the time to chat with me and also thank James Geuzebroek, Senior Manager, Media and Public Affairs, for setting up a Microsoft Teams meeting where I got to see them both for the first time.

And today, I only called Jeff "Jim" once and apologized as it is a force of habit (Jim Keohane and I used to have long conversations. Jeff told me he's doing well, isolating with his wife in their country house).

So, I began by asking Jeff some operational questions regarding to how HOOPP employees have adapted working from home.

He told me "surprisingly well" and that pensions are being paid, contributions are being made, servicing their members well remains a top priority.

He also told me they haven't missed a beat on the investment side, doing extensive trades using total return swaps and they've been holding their regular investment committee meetings at 8 a.m. and that doing it from home has made it easier for more people to join in (I think he said three times a week).

Recall, back in June, I wrote a comment on HOOPP's successful IT journey, profiling Reno Bugiardini, HOOPP’s Senior VP, IT and the great work he and his team have done to allow all of HOOPP's operations to continue seamlessly working remotely.

In terms of getting employees back at the office, Jeff told me their priority remains on the health and safety of their employees and that he doesn't see a full return to the office before January 2021 or potentially later, depending on circumstances.

Having said this, they did internal surveys and some team meetings will be allowed at the office but "this will only be on a voluntary basis, we are not imposing on anyone and we will be tracking people closely and making sure all precautions are taken."

Again, the health and safety of all employees is their top priority but some employees feel cooped up and it might do them some good to interact socially with their colleagues. 

HOOPP's LDI 2.0

Let's get into HOOPP's LDI 2.0 approach, after all, that's why you're all reading this comment.

Jeff told me that HOOPP has an extensive allocation to bonds which has served the plan's members well over the years. "It has provided us with liquidity, diversification benefits and meaningful returns, especially on a leveraged basis" (HOOPP repos out its bond portfolio to invest in other asset classes).

But with bond yields at record lows and many sovereign bonds yielding negative or flirting with negative yields, it's clear HOOPP has to diversify away from its massive bond portfolio and look into other ways to generate yield.

Jeff Wendling reiterated what his predecessor Jim Keohane told me on many occasions, namely, "we will never invest in negative-yielding bonds" (even if you can make a lot of money if bond yields go more negative, it's not something they want to do as it's very risky).

He also admitted they don't want to take on more leverage in bonds to invest elsewhere.

So if not bonds, then what? Well, Jeff said they're slowly ramping up a few things:

  • Infrastructure: HOOPP has been late to embrace infrastructure because they thought the asset class was overvalued for many years. Jeff told me only 25% of their assets are in private markets, "much lower than our peers" (they are closer to 50%). But with bond yields continuing to go lower, they decided to start investing in infrastructure. "We set up a team, we committed $1 billion in two infrastructure funds and will co-invest alongside them in bigger deals but it's still early, so we haven't deployed a lot of that billion dollars yet."
  •  Insurance-linked securities: In addition to infrastructure, it launched an insurance-linked securities (ILS) program. I'm not an expert on this but read a great comment on it from Marsh here. Basically, "ILS is another form of reinsurance available to insurance entities. However, instead of facing a rated balance sheet, the insurance entity faces a fully secure, collateralized form of funding dedicated to a precise risk requiring coverage. Usually the collateral takes the form of highly-rated, highly-liquid investments, such as government gilt funds or pure money market funds. Premium flows are determined by the type of risk and investor appetite."
  • Allocating more to external absolute return managers: HOOPP has prided itself over the years for delivering great risk-adjusted returns in a very cost effective way. They do a lot of absolute return strategies internally but as the size of the Fund approaches $100 billion (they're at $99 billion now), they need to find scalable alpha strategies they can't replicate internally to help them continue delivering great risk-adjusted returns. Jeff confirmed to me they are using Innocap's managed account platform (the same one OTPP and CPP Investments use for their external hedge fund managers) to onboard new hedge fund managers but they are proceeding very selectively and cautiously. I told him I used to allocate to external hedge funds and warned him: "When things go well, it runs like a car in cruise control, but when things start to falter, get ready to hear all sorts of lame excuses as to why they're not performing. Proceed with great caution." He agreed and told me they have smart people internally working on finding good managers offering unique alpha they cannot replicate internally.
  • Taking more concentrated positions in higher yielding equities and bonds: This was an interesting topic, Jeff told me back in March/ April, they moved quickly to buy more Canadian banks at low prices because they were "yielding 7%" and they also gorged on provincial bonds when "spreads widened". He said they're looking to be more opportunistic and more concentrated in public equities. "Traditionally, we invested synthetically in the S&P 500 and the S&P/TSX but we will be adding to our holdings of high yielding securities when opportunities arise. That's what we did with Canadian banks and provincial bonds." 

I'll give you another good example of this last strategy. My friends and I have been looking at shares of Exxon Mobil (XOM) which along with other energy shares have been hammered over the last five years:


Exxon Mobil shares currently yield over 9% , they have been hammered because of the rise of ESG investing, but the world still needs oil and yet its shares keep dropping as if everyone switched to driving a Tesla and is heating their house using solar panels.

Now, I warned my friends that "it will make a double-bottom so don't rush to buy it" but they didn't listen to me. Still, when you have a huge oil company trading at these valuations, you need to take some risk and adopt a long-term view, which is what pensions do. 

Can Exxon Mobil cut its dividend? Sure but I strongly doubt it and even if they cut it in half, it's still a great yield for pensions starving for yield. 

What about pensions that divested from oil and gas? Well, that's a dumb move if you ask my frank opinion.

Anyway, I'm getting off topic but you see the point. If you don't like oil, look at Simon Property Group, a REIT offering a great yield, or some utilities, etc.

The point being, in a zero or negative rate world HOOPP and other pensions will be looking to make yield everywhere they can, and that requires taking more risk but more intelligent risk.

What else? We talked a little about real estate, private equity and private debt.

Jeff told me HOOPP doesn't have as much retail real estate as its peers because "they bought most of the prized assets in Canadian retail and office space a long time ago. We have some retail and will take some writedowns there like others have done."

Instead, HOOPP diversified and bought US offices and even took development risk by building their current office tower One York which was awarded LEED platinum certification. 

What else did HOOPP do in real estate? They got into industrial properties (logistics, warehouses) early on and are now the biggest Canadian logistics landlords (see my comment on how HOOPP will develop Waterloo's iPort Cambridge).

HOOPP also invested in logistics properties in Western Europe and has teamed up with Amazon on a few deals there and in Canada (like Delta iPort in Vancouver). 

In private equity, Jeff told me they look at deals very closely and depending on terms, "sometimes they take on more equity, other times more debt". 

I asked him specifically about private debt given that pensions have a love-hate relationship with it and he told me they have done some deals over the last five years but on an opportunistic basis (they made a killing on the Home Capital deal).

I ended by asking Jeff a question on his dual role. I asked why he holds the dual title of CEO/ CIO and whether he plans on holding both titles indefinitely. He said he was still CIO when COVID hit (became CEO on April 1st) and that he wanted to continue that role for now but that he will revisit it next year.

Interestingly, he told me they adopted BlackRock 's Alladin risk system and hired their first ever Chief Risk Officer and are excited to bring this person into the organization. I told him "make sure to give this person power or else it won't make a difference" and he assured me that they will play a critical role as the Fund grows and takes more risk across public and private markets.

Jeff told me that coming off a great 2019, the Fund was positioned more cautiously going into this year and that helped cushion the blow of the pandemic. "We had a better Q1 than our peers and bounced back nicely in Q2". 

However, he did admit the drop in long bond yields impacted their liabilities but they remain fully funded.

Lastly, I mentioned to Jeff that I read a conversation with Ray Tanveer, HOOPP's Vice President of Interest Rates & Inflation. 

I told Jeff I'm still in the deflation camp and he told me they don't see deflation but rather "a long period of low growth and very low inflation". Still, he said they don't see runaway inflation either.

By the way, I shared the conversation with Ray Tanveer with a former colleague of mine from PSP Investments, Mihail Garchev, the now former VP and Head of Total Fund Management at BCI, and here is what he shared with me: 

Liquidity and leverage are at the center of the interplay between public and private assets and the liabilities and are key aspects of total portfolio management. It is because of liquidity that one can invest in private assets to start with. It is the public assets that provide liquidity and leverage and meeting the liabilities critically depends on liquidity. Leverage is also important to increase the expected returns but also at times for the purpose of diversification, risk mitigation, and even better alignment with partners in certain cases in private assets.

Therefore, it is crucial for investors to understand the interplay and impacts. As funds grow in size and complexity it becomes more and more challenging manage all these effects for an optimal total portfolio outcome and with a clear and managed process.

While the key aspects of liquidity and leverage are well-understood by practitioners, there are few perspectives related to total portfolio management worth considering avoiding any potential blind spots and unintended consequences.

First, whether one applies leverage depends on the expected returns of the assets being levered, both absolute and relative. If the expected returns are negative or lower on the relative basis, and depending on the horizon, one might be better off of not levering, or even doing the opposite whichever way this could be achieved. There are great examples of perceptive investors de-levering even private asset classes (e.g. real estate) during the Global Financial Crisis (it is not only about having leverage but also its second derivative - how leverage is structured and achieved in the portfolio might matter a lot).

Second, when the process is based on levering bonds, a lot of the total portfolio benefits presume some risk mitigation properties of the bonds and immediate liquidity to liquidate. Considering some of these properties in quantitative models sits very well. As an exaggeration to illustrate the point, if it were not for liquidity, one can generate arguably infinite leverage in the repo market. Now the problem is whether bonds will have the same properties as they had in the past, or they will be less efficient going forward.

A lot of this depends on the equity-bond correlation which is highly dependent on inflation and a few other factors. One could argue bonds may not be that efficient going forward.There is one more aspect related to this lowered efficiency. In the context of risk mitigation, even if the correlation works in favor, in exceptionally low yield environment, the magnitude of the benefit is much lower. This means that yes, one might get the diversification benefit (correlation impact), but if the total portfolio goes, say from $100 to $80, and the bonds only help offsetting $5, the total has shrunk and nothing can bring the size back to $100. One needs something which would produce dry powder. In the past, the bonds might had have added say $10. Therefore, in risk mitigation, dry powder is a key consideration, not only correlation.

The third aspect is the liquidity of the bonds. In many cases, government bonds are assumed as “highly liquid” when added to the various risk measures, such as liquidity coverage ratios, for example. It is an intuitive assumption, but have we tested it? Who would provide this backstop liquidity? It is assumed that the banks will purchase back at any time and the Bank of Canada will step in. In a true liquidity event, however, where cash and only cash is king, if banks need hard cash, they might not be purchasing back the bonds. Like the Fed, the Bank of Canada would need to provide an explicit guarantee so that this assumption is 100% tested. There could also be potential political and social aspects related to topic of “moral hazard” that might come into play. Such an assumption of ultimate liquidity of bonds might provide level of comfort, but if this one assumption is not hard tested (not just presumed), it may lead unforeseen consequences. Always ask the question – what is this one thing that we take for granted that if not true, could lead to ruin?

Last aspect is related to where actually the leverage flows. In some cases, leverage is created via repos in the bond portfolio and it is assumed that one has levered bonds. It is important to know where this leverage is sitting in the asset mix table. The total pie is certainly not 100% anymore but say 140%. If leverage is not explicitly shown in the bond line of the asset mix, then it means that leverage is re-distributed in some fashion in the other assets of the portfolio. There are two implications of this: first, it might create a situation of adding leverage on leverage without realizing it – e.g. if some of this leverage ends up in say, in a private asset which already uses non-recourse leverage (with all the risk and performance implications to consider).

The other more important question is about decision-making and the importance of being cognizant to which asset leverage actually flows. Without this consideration, it may lead to a completely wrong decision. And this is fundamental. As an example, if the leverage is truly in bonds (and presuming bonds are a good risk mitigator), when markets fall, it would be good to lever the bonds. This is the right decision. Now imagine that this leverage was actually in an equity-like private asset (with or without additional leverage at the asset level). Then levering (even if it is done via bonds as a transition mechanism) may potentially be the wrong decision, because the private asset would most likely have a negative return (exacerbated if additional leverage is there). To make such a decision, one needs a good process to determine short- to medium-term relative and absolute expected returns. Fundamental to this is to understand the how leverage flows through the portfolio (e.g. the bond transmission mechanism) but also the ultimate impact on the performance of the individual asset classes and the total portfolio. Important in this aspect are also risk, performance measurement and attribution.

The discussion above provides some initial aspects to consider. Particular circumstances, like portfolio structure, accounting, valuation, or actuarial practices, among others, may support, negate, or mitigate some of the impacts and conclusions, and make this an investor-specific consideration.

Mihail is a phenomenal mind, one of the best people in the country when it comes to understanding all aspects of total fund management, a topic which will be increasingly more important in a record low-rate world.

Anyway, there's a lot of coverage and food for thought here, I thank Jeff Wendling and James Geuzebroek once again and thank Mihail Garchev for his great insights.

My only problem with HOOPP -- and I let Jeff know about it -- is they are flying too low under the radar. I'd like to see Jeff a lot more in the traditional media, just by talking to him, I can tell he's a gifted investment professional and great communicator. He needs a lot more coverage. 

Below, Mark Machin, chief executive officer of the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, discusses the lessons he's learned while investing during the Covid-19 pandemic. He spoke with Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker on "Bloomberg Markets: The Close" last Friday.

Second, Jim Keohane, former CEO of HOOPP, spoke to Real Vision's Ed Harrison back in March about the remarkable obstacles pension funds face and how they can survive and thrive in the face of these challenges. Great long discussion, well worth listening to it.

Lastly, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday: "If you look at the supply side, it is unambiguously inflationary. What we need for inflation is for the demand side to come back. That is where the uncertainty is right now."

The Rise of Constructive Capital?

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The Investor Leadership Network (ILN) took further action in the fight against climate change today, releasing its latest report Climate Change Mitigation and your portfolio:

The Investor Leadership Network (ILN) today released its latest report Climate Change Mitigation and your portfolio: Practical Tools for Investors. The report provides detailed guidance for investors on strengthening climate-related disclosures, focused on decarbonization scenarios in line with the Paris Agreement.

The report has been developed as part of the ILN’s climate change initiative, which focuses on developing tools and resources to help investors understand climate change risks and opportunities across diversified portfolios. It provides information to support investors in evaluating the maturity of companies’ decarbonization scenario analysis and how it aligns with the Paris Agreement and a pathway to limiting the increase in average global temperature to 1.5°C.

As investors work to improve their climate change risk analysis, there is a need for a credible, consistent fact-base. The ILN recognizes that climate scenario analysis is a relatively recent practice and that it is challenging. The new report aims to address some of these challenges and offers a structured approach for investors to evaluate the scenario analysis disclosures of companies.

In addition, this guidance provides a sector-level 1.5°C scenarios across ten sectors including Oil & Gas, Mining, Food and Agriculture, and Transportation.

Amy Hepburn, CEO of the ILN Secretariat, commented: “Creating an ecosystem of stronger climate-related disclosures and recognition of climate risk requires close collaboration between investors, companies across sectors, and regulators. As institutional investors managing over US$5 trillion in assets around the world, ILN members are committed to supporting the ongoing efforts of investors and companies in their goal to fight climate change.” 

The ILN hopes to increase the maturity and standardization of the climate data landscape, drive more effective climate-related engagement between companies and investors, and ultimately improve climate resiliency. The ILN believes that investors can lead our economy and society towards better understanding and management of climate risk, enabling action on climate change, and that enhanced disclosure will enable the investment industry to accelerate recognition of climate risks, and the transition towards a more sustainable economy. 

This report follows the TCFD Implementation, Practical Insights and Perspectives from Behind the Scenes for Institutional Investors report published September 2019. 

Access the full report.

Access the executive summary.

Access the investor guide.

Take the time to read this report here, it isn't too long and very well written, packed with great insights.

If you think climate change is all a big hoax or a man-made conspiracy, let me bring to your attention something that caught my attention earlier today:

There's a reason why an enormous chunk of Greenland’s ice cap has broken off in the far northeastern Arctic, and it's not because planet Earth is cooling down.

Those of you who have read my blog over the years know my cynical thoughts on climate change: humanity is screwed, we are past the point of no return, and the biggest problem is there are too many people wanting to be part of the middle class, buying cars, flying off to trips, and just polluting our planet.

I also agree with a friend of mine, the most important thing we can do to combat climate change over the long run is close coal plants for good and switch over to nuclear power:

Of course, the Lefties and the Righties don't like the "nuclear solution" so it will never see the light of day, which is another reason why I think we are screwed.

Anyway, let me spare you my opinions on climate change and get into an interesting panel discussion I saw earlier today.

It featured:

  • Charles Emond, President & CEO, CDPQ; Co-chair, ILN CEO Council
  • Amy Hepburn, CEO of the ILN Secretariat
  • Jean Raby, CEO, Natixis Investment Managers; Co-chair, ILN CEO Council
  • Moderator: Tracey Flaherty, SVP, Head of Diversity and Inclusion & Public Affairs, Natixis Investment Managers

Here is a brief description:

In a climate of growing political polarization, people are increasingly asking the private sector to tackle the world’s greatest challenges. Asset managers and asset owners are well-positioned to influence the global business agenda, but how can they really move the needle on important societal challenges such as diversity, climate change and sustainable infrastructure? And how can those efforts best complement the efforts of other stakeholders, such as corporates, governments, supranationals, and NGOs? Our panel of CEOs will discuss their own approach and the role of industry coalitions such as the Investor Leadership Network (ILN) in advancing economic and social change.

The ILN, a G7 initiative, is a coalition of 14 leading global investors that is partnering with governments, multilateral institutions, philanthropic organizations and other groups to advance sustainability and long-term global growth. Its three major initiatives are centered on diversity in investment, climate change disclosure and sustainable infrastructure.

Now, before I give you my coverage of this panel discussion, please refer back to two earlier comments of mine on how G7 investors unite on global initiatives and when Canadian pension CEOs met in Davos in 2019. It provides a good background to situate readers who don't know why the ILN was started in the first place.

You should also note that Barb Zvan, the former Chief Risk & Strategy Officer at OTPP who was recently named the inaugural President and CEO of the UPP, did a lot of the heavy lifting to set the ILN up and give it a purpose and direction. It's fair to say she was instrumental to laying the foundations of this organization.

A brief recap of the ILN's mission and mandate:

For a background on this meeting in Davos, I refer you to a comment I posted last June on how G7 investors unite on global initiatives. The focus is on three initiatives:

  1. Enhancing expertise in infrastructure financing and development in emerging and frontier economies;
  2. Opening opportunities for women in finance and investment worldwide; and
  3. Speeding up the implementation of uniform and comparable climate-related disclosures under the FSB-TCFD framework. 
If you go to the ILN's website here, you will read the following
The Investor Leadership Network is an open and collaborative platform for leading investors interested in addressing sustainability and long-term growth. A direct outcome of Canada’s 2018 presidency of the G7, the ILN focuses on concrete actions and global partnerships (click on image).

Now, as stated in the press release above, ILN comprises a group of twelve leading institutional investors, representing over $6 trillion of assets under management working together to facilitate and accelerate collaboration on key issues related to sustainability and long-term growth.

This morning's panel discussion which took place over the web focused on these areas and more.  

Charles Emond, CDPQ's President and CEO, talked about "doing the right thing" and moving from "capital to being constructive capital". 

In light of events since the start of the year, he emphasized the need to focus on the "S" in ESG investing and said social justice will be a big theme for years to come as the pandemic accelerated certain trends like the rise of inequality with wealth being concentrated in technology industry, and protectionism which can breed nationalism and a turn inward.

Amy Hepburn liked the rise of constructive capitalism which Charles referred to and said the ILN needs to bridge the gap between research and practice to offer real, measurable ways to move forward on the three themes the ILN is focused on. 

Charles Emond, however, was careful to state the purpose of the ILN isn't just to benefit society, there are also opportunities for global allocators in climate change and investors and companies can contribute to their bottom line if they do the right thing. 

Jean Raby discussed the need to deliver "tangible results" on the three broad themes the ILN is focused on. 

Charles Emond also discussed concrete needs, concrete projects and concrete results, mentioning these examples:

  • IDBs in infrastructure
  • Diversity in the curriculum of the CFA Institute all over the world
  • PwC's work on climate risk and how to measure it

Partnerships were discussed at length because they are instrumental to this organization.

Jean Raby said asset managers can learn from asset owners who have a long tradition of working together on big projects. 

Charles Emond discussed how engaging companies in a way that shows it is beneficial to them.

He warned that as the private sector assumes more responsibility in these areas, it doesn't mean others (like governments) should abdicate their responsibility. 

There was a good discussion on having the right standards and metrics to work toward a collective solution.

They also discussed the need to broaden out diversity past gender diversity.

Amy Hepburn said the last ILN meeting between CEOs took place right after George Floyd's death and the BLM movement was on everyone's mind.

Charles Emond referred to the BlackNorth Initiative and said the three areas of focus of the ILN are "now more important than ever".

He said "COVID will hopefully last 18 to 24 months but climate change will last for decades".

Importantly, and quite tellingly, he warned investors: 

"We are standing at the edge of a cliff. Climate change has become a risk management issue and now more than ever, we need to focus on investing in a sustainable way. Markets are not fully efficient to capture all these risks and those who ignore them will be left behind."

I really liked those comments and he's absolutely right. He also discussed this:

  • Thinking in a bold manner
  • Leveraging off of partnerships as "we don't have a monopoly on truth"
  • The worst thing that can happen is members abandon now

Jean Raby discussed diverse approaches but the need to maintain focus and the need to "track and measure success."

Let me end it there and say while I thoroughly enjoyed this panel discussion, I was deeply disappointed that it was not recorded and posted on the Investor Leadership Network's Vimeo site here.

I reached out to Charles Emond earlier to ask him if it was posted and he was kind enough to get back to me and tell me his team is looking into it.

In my opinion, it defeats the purpose of the ILN if these great exchanges are not posted on the web so everyone can get to know the ILN, its mandate and its evolution in an open and transparent way.

Like I said, I really do hope they post this great exchange online for the benefit of all.

Luckily, I have another great clip to share with you. 

Below, Mark Machin, President and Chief Executive Officer, CPP Investments; and Christopher Ailman, Chief Investment Officer, California State Teachers’ Retirement System speak with Bloomberg’s Sonali Basak at the Bloomberg Green virtual event about how they are approaching sustainability in their portfolios and what they see as the most significant developments over the past few years.

This is a thirty minute discussion and I implore all of you to please take the time to listen to Mark and Chris, they offer so many invaluable insights here as they discuss their approach to sustainability in their portfolios. This is really a great discussion which took place on Monday, September 14th.

There is also an older ILN clip on the Sustainable Infrastructure Fellowship Program seeks to enhance the expertise of emerging market leaders in developing sustainable, investment-ready infrastructure projects, and to give them concrete exposure to the criteria used by institutional investors to evaluate infrastructure investments. 

Unfortunately, the ILN isn't very social media friendly and I can't embed this clip below (they need to get up to par on these clips and make them easy to embed). 

Lastly, Natixis Portfolio Manager Amber Fairbanks discusses ESG integration, impact investing and Mirova’s global sustainable equity investment strategy.

Come to think of it, Natixis sponsored today's event so they should post it on their YouTube channel and then I can embed it here.

The Case For a Chief Performance Officer

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Ioannis Segounis, founder of Athos Investment Services, wrote a guest comment for me on why pensions need a chief performance officer:

What is the most focused on and talked about subject in the investment industry? Performance, and yet this industry still lacks the role of a chief performance officer (CPO).

Although all companies can benefit from one, the Pension Fund sector of the industry stands to benefit the most. Pension Funds differ from other investment firms in that their objective is to meet the pension obligations of their beneficiaries. The actual benchmark for every pension fund is the ability to meet all pension liabilities and not some broad market index. Furthermore, the pension boards overseeing these funds exist to protect the interests of the beneficiaries and to play a critical role in ensuring the best management is in place.

In terms of governance, pension funds resemble for the most part other investment firms with a CEO leading the firm, a CIO in charge of strategy, a CRO overseeing the management of risk, a COO ensuring operations can meet the demands of the fund and a CCO making sure controls are in place and the rules are being followed. These C-Suite individuals all speak to the board directly providing their feedback on their areas of expertise. The CCO, the CRO and the COO are independent (or should be) but only the CEO and CIO provide feedback on performance. In other words, there is no independent feedback on performance to the board.

Pension Funds Organizational Structure

Oversight is important in any kind of business but more so when it comes to pensions. Pensions represent income that employees are dependent on for when they retire, at an age where their opportunities for income generation will be limited.

While funds have made great strides in governance, there are still pension funds that have individuals occupying multiple roles. For instance, it is not unusual to find the CEO hold the CIO title (chief investment officer) or the COO (chief operating officer) hold the CCO title (chief compliance officer). 

Sadly, there have been circumstances where the CEO holds the CIO and CCO titles. In these cases, there is very limited oversight and practically no independence. For arguments sake, let’s assume that each title is held by a separate individual and that the CRO, CCO and COO titles are independent. The roles of the CEO and CIO are to help guide the fund’s investment strategy and ensure its being executed by its portfolio managers and traders. The CRO (chief risk officer) provides feedback to the risk management portion to help guide investment decisions. The COO runs the operations to ensure the data, reporting and its underlying calculations, and technology can meet the fund’s needs. Lastly, the CCO provides oversight with respect to the rules and regulations the fund must comply with, usually with support from legal counsel.

The Board’s role in all this is to oversee the proper management of the fund and provide independent oversight to the fund. Unfortunately, they don’t receive independent feedback of the firm’s performance. This includes what kind of strategies have been employed, how they have been executed and everybody’s contribution to performance, including that of the board’s. What they do get to review is what comes from the same people managing the fund and whose compensation is directly tied to the fund’s return. 

In addition, the board lacks the skill set to fully understand the underlying components of performance and accurately identify the sources of out-or-underperformance. There are still stories coming out in the media where pension funds experienced “sudden” significant losses. They only seem sudden because there was no truly independent review and understanding of what was going on. If you keep ignoring the sound of dripping water in your home and one day your roof caves in, did it all happen “suddenly”?

A chief performance officer (CPO) would provide the feedback that the firm and board greatly need. From the firm’s point of view, the CPO’s performance team can provide a greater understanding of the effectiveness of strategies and the managers behind them. From the boards point of view, gone will be poor explanations of underperformance and over exuberant ones for outperformance. A more consistent and balanced approach would be taken providing the board an independent and detailed explanation in words they can understand, placing them in a better position to do their job. 

Moreover, on a more technical and operational point of view, a CPO would bring to the firm true operational independence when it comes to performance and the skill set that no other department has. Portfolio managers and risk managers do not understand the return mechanics of a basic return formula, especially how they impact the more complicated products that are all the rage. Operationally, unbeknownst to most, the performance department is beholden to whomever has access to the data. It is not uncommon for the front office to request the back office to adjust trade dates or make adjustments on transactions or market values without the knowledge of the performance team. The CPO position would put an end to this since the performance department would have final say on the data it uses for its calculations, all based on best practices. Lastly, and most importantly, it would bring independence in performance. The pension fund would have a more complete independent and oversight structure with a CPO than without one.

Independence

The lack of independence in the area of performance analysis and review is most striking for a pension fund when you take into consideration the care that was taken to ensure Risk and Compliance are independent. Not to minimize these areas or make them seem less important, because they are vital to well-functioning fund, but performance is the most talked about aspect of any portfolio or investment product and there is little to no independence when providing feedback to the board.

The CPO office would be able to provide independence in performance analysis/review and operations. Some might say to just put performance under Risk, but assigning performance to the Risk department would not be ideal since the risk department plays a role in the management process of the fund and they contribute to performance. Their analysis is not limited to ex-post but as well as on an ex-ante basis. Their forward looking analyses contribute to the decision making process of the portfolio management team. As such, they are not independent of any performance analysis review. Furthermore, their skill set and understanding differs from that of performance specialists. The danger here is that common sense decisions by the performance members might not seem reasonable to the risk team thus running the risk of having the right performance analysis/review/process be overturned because risk sees it differently.

In the area of performance analysis and review, to maintain independence, the CPO would only analyze on an ex-post basis, this way the performance department avoids being part of the fund’s asset management process. Any ex-ante analysis should be done by the front office who is responsible for the investment decisions of the fund. The CPO would provide invaluable feedback to identify the true alpha generators from the pretenders. Keep the right people in place and hold the investment management department accountable. Vague explanations of underperformance using inappropriate benchmarks as a reference would become things of the past.

The CPO would report directly to the Board providing him/her the support to do his/her work. Performance is an area that is tightly guarded by the c-suite for one reason: the bonus structure. Past experience has shown that the front office will not hesitate to prevent performance from doing its job. Furthermore, past experience also shows that CCOs and CROs don’t always provide the best control mechanism in a firm, if they are led by weak individuals. This is not to say any CPO would fix everything, because if you hire a poor CPO, one with little to no understanding of performance and poor ethics, the CPO position would prove to be no better than just assigning it to a portfolio manager.

Adding a truly independent CPO who is not tied to the performance compensation structure, who is not involved in the investment management decisions, and can report to the board without fear of reprisals is what can set apart a pension fund. An environment where the best people are in the best position will provide the long term health the fund needs to support its beneficiaries.

Who to hire

In the previous section, I mentioned CROs and CCOs that are not up to task but if you hire the wrong person for the CPO position, you are gaining nothing and wasting a lot. It already has occurred where a large pension fund filled the position of Director of Performance with someone with no prior experience in the field to lead the performance department. Due to the sensitivity of performance great caution must be taken when looking at filling the CPO position with the right individual.

The person required is someone who has dedicated his/her career to the field and, unlike a “rising star” who gets fast tracked to climb the corporate ladder, has spent a considerable amount of time doing the grunt work and gaining invaluable experience. Experience that can be only gained through on the job training. There’s a reason why you need to accumulate flying hours as a pilot to progress. There are no rising stars there.

Furthermore, they need to have the CFA and CIPM designation at the minimum, the only performance designation in the industry, a strong knowledge of both the theoretical and practical side of performance (this part only comes with experience), vision, courage to support the department’s staff, an ethical character to stand up for what’s best for the pension beneficiaries and not the front office. Someone who is able to evaluate portfolios and managers and has a strong analytical side as well to the practical.

Change is never easy in life and even harder in the corporate world, but Pension Funds have a golden opportunity in front of them by opening up their minds and see the potential to grow in ways unimaginable a few years back. The Chief Performance Officer should become a staple in Pension Funds helping protect the livelihood of millions of individuals in a world that becomes more uncertain by the day.

First, let me thank Ioannis Segounis for sharing this superb comment with me, it is packed with unique insights that can only come from someone who has worked in the pension industry and has extensive experience in performance analysis.

Second, let me apologize to him for sitting on this comment for two weeks, I've been busy covering large pensions and today is the day I decided that enough is enough, I'm posting this gem of a comment.

Third, I'm sick and tired of hearing my own voice, I talk up diversity & inclusion but I need to practice what I preach and the best way to do this is to bring my readers more diverse views from industry experts.

And Ioannis Segounis is an industry expert when it comes to investment performance analysis. He has the fancy titles to prove it -- BEng, MBA, CFA, CIPM -- but if you meet him, he's one of the nicest and most humble guys you'll run across in the industry.


He previously worked at CN Investment Division and briefly worked at another consulting shop prior to setting up Athos Investment Services, named after the famous Mount Athos in Greece, an important center of Eastern Orthodox monasticism.

Like me, Ioannis isn't a particularly religious person but he has unquestionable integrity and he works extremely hard on behalf of his clients. 

In my opinion, he makes a very persuasive case for a) hiring a qualified and experienced chief performance officer and b) having that person report directly to the Board provided he or she has the full backing of the Board and CEO.

Did I ever tell you the time I was in a board meeting at PSP and we ended up talking about governance and real estate benchmarks?

I remember this like it happened yesterday. Two heavyweight board members -- Carl Otto and Jean Lefebvre -- started huffing and puffing about the real estate benchmark.

At one point, Carl Otto (God rest his soul, he died a few years ago) turned directly to me and asked me: "Leo, do you think the real estate benchmark (at the time is was CPI + 500 basis points) accurately reflects the risks the real estate group is taking?".

I took a deep breath, looked at Gordon (Gordon Fyfe, the then CEO) and he looked at me and said: "Answer the question".

I looked at Carl and Jean and said: "Well, no, they are taking huge opportunistic risks which is why they're delivering 20 or 30%+ returns in some of their investments and trouncing their benchmark."

At the time, I can see André Collin, PSP's then Head of Real Estate, was fuming and if looks can kill, I'd be a dead man (little did I know at the time, I was a dead man, my time at PSP was quickly expiring).

What followed immediately after, I'll never forget. Gordon asked me to leave the boardroom for five minutes. I was right outside and can hear them shouting and screaming.

After a few minutes, Liette Richard, Gordon's trusted assistant, asked me to come back into the boardroom.

Paul Cantor, the then Chair of the Board (God rest his soul too), took a vote on the real estate benchmark, it was approved to stay unchanged but Jean and Carl abstained.

After a long day, I went to see Gordon and asked him why he put me on the spot like that. He said I did my job, answered truthfully but it didn't matter, nothing was going to change.

I didn't understand until he told me straight out: "I brought André here to lead Real Estate and I promised him some things, I kept my promise."

That's when I remembered George Orwell's Animal Farm when the pigs said: "All animals are equal but some are more equal than others". 

And let me tell you, André Collin was part of the "untouchable pigs" at PSP back then (pigs in the Orwellian sense, not literally). He moved a couple of years after I left that organization, joining Lone Star Funds, quickly climbing up the ranks there to lead that Fund. 

He's now president of North America and Latin America at Lone Star, reporting to William Young, Global President and Chief Legal Officer, but still making more money than he could have ever dreamed of, and a hell of lot more than his old pension peers (good for him, he's in the major leagues and is very good at opportunistic real estate which is why John Grayken hired him).

Anyway, I'm getting off track with this walk down memory lane at PSP. My point being, if we had a Chief Performance Officer back then, I could have been spared all this third degree at that board meeting and someone else could have had a target on their back!!

But like Ioannis Segounis rightly states in his comment above, there is no independent feedback on performance to the boards at Canada's large pensions. None, zero, zilch!

Sure, there is a CFO and they make sure that performance is calculated according to industry's best practices across public and private markets, but that's not the same as having an independent, dedicated Chief Performance Officer who is able to analyze the numbers carefully and thoroughly, offering the Board expert analysis and advice.

In an ideal world, both the Chief Risk Officer and the Chief Performance Officer would report directly to the Board and have their full backing. 

In practice, the CRO reports to the CEO and has an in-camera session with the Board that typically lasts 15 to 30 minutes.

Also, I am fine with a CEO carrying both hats (CIO/ CEO) as long as this doesn't impact their performance and duties as CEO or CIO. 

Jeff Wendling at HOOPP and Gordon Fyfe at BCI are carrying both hats and it can be done but in my opinion, a large pension needs a dedicated CIO because there is simply too much going on to be good at both jobs (not that I blame them, the investment side is the fun part, being CEO isn't always fun).

But I agree with Ioannis, a CEO can't hold the Chief Compliance Officer title too, it then opens the door to conflicts of interest.

Anyway, the point of this comment was to provide the case for a Chief Performance Officer at all pensions, especially large ones engaging in complex internal and external strategies. 

I think Ioannis Segounis makes a very persuasive case and I would ask my readers to contact him directly at Athos Investment Services to ask him how he can help your organization improve its performance measurement and reporting (he truly is top notch at what he does). You can join him directly at ioannis@athoservices.com.

Let me put it to you this way, if you don't have a dedicated Chief Performance Officer, you are flying blind and need a little prayer to make sure everything is up to snuff.

Below, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke Wednesday following the central bank's two-day policy meeting. The Federal Reserve announced  that it will keep interest rates near zero for years until the US economy heals from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the labor market normalizes. 

The Federal Open Market Committee will provide its quarterly update on where it sees GDP, unemployment and inflation heading. It also will take up the issue of whether it should provide clearer guidance on what it will take to raise rates in the future, and it could switch its bond-buying strategy to go beyond supporting market functioning to one that backstops the broader economy as well. 

Also, an older 60 Minutes clip, a pilgrimage to the Byzantine monasteries of Mount Athos, the spiritual center of the Orthodox Church. My father has been there a few times and told me: "It's stunning and spiritual but they wake you up in the wee hours of the morning to pray and you pray a lot throughout the day, so I don't think you would enjoy it."

Yeah, definitely not for me, I value my sleep too much but who knows, maybe I'll go some day and discover the mystical beauty of Mount Athos for myself.  

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PSP Investments' Revera Disaster?

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Kevin Skerrett, a Senior Research Officer assigned to pensions for CUPE and co-editor of The Contradictions of Pension Fund Capitalism (2018), wrote a comment in The Bulltet on pension fund capitalism and the COVID-19 pandemic: the case of Revera:

Of the many crises provoked by the COVID-19 pandemic across Canada, the dire situation in long-term care facilities and retirement housing may be the most widely and urgently recognized. Even Ontario Premier Doug Ford, whose own party engineered the significant shift to more privatized and ‘marketized’ long-term care (LTC) provision in the 1990s, recently declared the system to be “absolutely broken.”

A scathing report prepared by Canadian military specialists sent by the Ontario government to provide emergency staff support to five (eventually six) of the province’s worst-hit homes described the conditions found as “gruesome.” A subsequent report from the Canadian Institute for Health Research (CIHI) found that Canada has had the highest proportion of total COVID-19 related deaths in LTC facilities (81%) among the 17 OECD countries studied. Public policies promoting the partial commodification, deregulation, and underfunding of seniors’ care in the LTC system by neoliberal governments in Ontario and across the country have now been exposed as nothing short of catastrophic.

While less discussed, the media has also reported on the peculiar role being played within this “broken” system by one of Canada’s largest pension funds. The Public Sector Pension Investment Board (PSP) is a federal crown corporation established in 1999 to invest the pension funds of federal public service workers, along with most of military personnel and RCMP employees. Since its acquisition in 2006, PSP has owned and operated the second-largest for-profit LTC company in the country under the name ‘Revera’. PSP’s ownership of Revera is not in the familiar passive form of a pension fund buying a small packet of equity shares in the company and collecting dividends. Rather, as part of a recent wave of ‘private equity’ corporations getting more directly involved in for-profit healthcare, PSP bought an existing chain of care homes in 2006 and consolidated it under a new management structure that it fully controls. As its 100% owner, PSP is Revera.

Privatization, Deregulation, and Mismanagement

The social implications of this ownership are especially troubling in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The terrible consequences of the privatization, deregulation, and mismanagement of so much of our long-term care have provoked serious questions. How could such an important system have become so broken? Who broke it, and for whose benefit? Most importantly, this crisis has generated a wave of demands for the entire LTC sector to be taken into full public ownership. These demands, which polls indicate have wide popular support, put the spotlight on the central involvement of PSP and other workers’ pension funds in this “business.”

Even prior to the pandemic, long-term care was well known for its exploitative labour regime, a system imposed on a workforce that is very disproportionately comprised of women and racialized workers. The direct care work involved has been systematically deregulated and shifted from nurses to lower-paid personal support workers (PSWs) and care aides. Very low wages are often combined with part-time and precarious scheduling systems that force workers to take up multiple jobs at different facilities to get enough hours to survive. Subcontracting key functions, such as food service, laundry, and cleaning, to private for-profit companies is pervasive. (Some non-profit and public homes in Ontario are now privately contracting out the management of entire facilities.) In combination, these business practices have made owning, operating, and managing LTC homes highly profitable for their corporate owners and managers, and also unstable and under-resourced places to work and to live. It is for these reasons that LTC facilities have been left incredibly vulnerable to an outbreak of serious viral infection.

In this context, PSP’s move into this sector is an especially revealing example of what has been referred to as “pension fund capitalism.” This term has been used to signify the shift that has aligned and implicated pension fund investment managers in neoliberal policy shifts – favouring deregulation, privatization, and intensified worker exploitation. The phrase also signals the fact that pension funds themselves have become key actors within sectors where longer-term ‘fixed capital’ investment, such as public infrastructure and real estate, play a central role in this reconfigured kind of capitalism.

This crisis – a combination public health, social, and economic crisis sparked by the COVID-19 pandemic – offers an opportunity for the left, the labour movement, and pro-public healthcare groups to respond to these developments by building a political challenge to capitalist business-as-usual as it relates to healthcare. It seems clear that most workers do not want their retirement incomes to be derived from the worker exploitation and diminished care provision that is so central to the profit making in long-term care. If so, a serious effort to mobilize pension plan members in support of a campaign to decommodify and transform long-term care could play a role in blocking these processes of capitalist restructuring and at the same time meaningfully strengthen Canada’s public healthcare system. Achieving this would literally save lives.

The COVID-19 Crisis in Long-Term Care

A review of some details of how the pandemic initially unfolded in the LTC sector is instructive. Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam reported in early May that some 81% of the country’s COVID deaths were “linked to long-term care facilities.” It is also clear that these death rates are far worse among those facilities owned and operated on a for-profit basis – including many owned by large chain operators. The Ontario Health Coalition has published data showing that these death rates are far higher among the for-profit facilities. An investigative report published by the Toronto Star showed that per capita death rates were four times higher in for-profit LTC homes compared to those publicly owned. Of those residents in Ontario LTC homes that have died of COVID-19, more than half were residents at homes owned by just six for-profit companies. (Revera had the second-highest number of resident deaths in that list as of that report, with 230; data published by journalist Nora Loreto put this figure at 261 as of July 21.)

A more recent study of available data on Ontario’s COVID-19 experience in LTC published by the Canadian Medical Association Journal (July 2020) confirmed that “for-profit LTC homes have larger COVID-19 outbreaks and more deaths of residents.” This study also underlined previous research that found that for-profit homes “tend to deliver inferior care,” which they summarize as including “lower levels and quality of staffing, more complaints from residents and family, higher rates of emergency department visits, more acute care hospital admissions, and higher mortality rates.”

This direct relationship between for-profit ownership and death rates should surprise no one. It is fully consistent with the evidence published by a comprehensive, ground-breaking research collaboration led by York University’s Pat Armstrong. Over many years of comparing Canada’s increasingly private and under-funded system to those of several other countries (including Sweden and Norway), this research has repeatedly shown that profit-driven ownership consistently generates negative outcomes for residents and workers:

“Private, for-profit services are necessarily more fragmented, more prone to closure and focused on making a profit. The research demonstrates that homes run on a for-profit basis tend to have lower staffing levels, more verified complaints, and more transfers to hospitals, as well as higher rates for both ulcers and morbidity. Moreover, managerial practices taken from the business sector are designed for just enough labour and for making a profit, rather than for providing good care.”

They point out that this adoption of practices “from the business sector” exerts downward pressure on wages and working conditions – and quality of care – even in the not-for-profit and publicly-owned facilities. Among their recommendations is an end to such practices, including the extensive subcontracting of so-called “ancillary” services now recognized as crucial to both quality of care and infection control. They also confirm that the disproportionately racialized and feminized labour force has been subjected to increasingly exploitative working conditions.

Crucially, such conditions translate directly into degraded care and living conditions for residents, which these researchers suggest opens up important potential for alliances between workers, residents, and family members who share an interest in transforming this system.

New Calls for Public Ownership of Long-Term Care

The suffering of the pandemic’s hardest hit populations has obviously given significant new force to these recommendations. In recent weeks there has been a steady stream of new and ambitious appeals for long-term care to be treated as vital healthcare – and made fully public, following the model of the Canada Health Act. The Canadian Labour Congress, the Canadian Health Coalition, the federal NDP, and a growing number of public healthcare advocates are demanding a full-scale overhaul of the entire LTC sector so that it can be properly integrated into the public healthcare system. The Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE) has launched a major new campaign to this effect, calling for a “well-funded, well-staffed, public long-term care system.” More recently, CUPE was joined by two other unions (SEIU and Unifor) to launch a joint campaign to “end profit-making” in the provision of residential care.

Such a transformation would obviously be no small matter. It would require not only new funding commitments from governments, but also a legal mandate to transfer existing facilities from private to public (or, at a minimum, not-for-profit and strictly regulated) ownership. But the calls for such public control are finding widespread public support. An Angus-Reid poll on the issue showed that fully two-thirds (66%) of respondents supported the full-scale “nationalization” of long-term care. An Abacus Data poll recently released by NUPGE indicates an even larger 86% majority of respondents support having long-term care facilities brought under the ‘universal, accessible’ mandate of the Canada Health Act.

With such a strong mandate – galvanized by the especially catastrophic performance of the for-profit care homes throughout the COVID-19 pandemic – a genuine transformation for this sector suddenly seems achievable. The mechanics of implementation are not clear, but some measure of financial compensation for the homes’ existing private owners would likely be attached. Any such compensation should be closely scrutinized and debated, particularly given the millions of dollars in public subsidies and supports that the companies have been channelling to shareholders and owners.

Of course, the for-profit industry and its extremely well funded lobby have already launched their defence. The largest companies involved – including Extendicare, PSP-Revera, and Chartwell – have been issuing statements to the media rejecting outright the suggestion that private, for-profit ownership of so many facilities has anything to do with the crisis. Industry organizations such as the Ontario Long-Term Care Association (OLTCA) have begun to mobilize such self-interested arguments against these popular pressures, taking full advantage of their links to Doug Ford’s cabinet and Ontario’s governing PC party. The battle is now on. So, what does this mean for the pension fund-LTC operator PSP-Revera?

Pension Fund Capital in For-Profit Healthcare

PSP and Revera are already engaged in a fulsome defence of their ownership rights in this sector, so understanding some basics of their history may be useful. The full, legal name of PSP is Public Sector Pension Investment Board (PSPIB), and it was established as a federal crown corporation in 1999 after the Liberal government of the day decided to build up a fund of financial market assets linked to federal government-sponsored pension plans. One of the largest such funds in the country, they now manage some $170-billion in assets, with about $66-billion of that amount held in private equity, infrastructure, or real estate.

Among PSP’s earliest major acquisitions was a friendly $800-million takeover of an existing for-profit LTC and retirement home company (Retirement REIT) whose Board was chaired by former Tory Premier Bill Davis and also included former Ontario Finance Minister (and later premier) Ernie Eves. Once “Revera” was launched, Davis was invited to join the Board of the new company – and he is still there. These close PC-LTC industry relationships were developed even further in 2003 when former Premier Mike Harris joined the Board of Chartwell Retirement Residences shortly after leaving politics. He is still there today. This means three of the last four PC Ontario premiers have spent time on the boards of these companies – with Doug Ford the only exception.

After Revera was launched as a “private” entity, PSP quickly consolidated it into a multinational operation with more than 500 LTC and retirement homes in Canada, the US, and the UK. According to one recent study, it is now the second largest corporate LTC chain in Canada.

PSP’s move into this sector was rooted in the politics of privatization that marked the neoliberal turn of the 1980s and 1990s. Following the recession of 1991, the federal and most provincial governments worked to cut taxes and social transfer payments, reduce the role of public ownership in the economy, and make private ownership of various types of public infrastructure easier and more profitable. This was particularly the case in Ontario, where the hard-right governments of Mike Harris and Ernie Eves (1995-2003) showed an ideological preference for private, for-profit ownership in, among other areas, long-term care. According to Justin Panos’ brief history, regulatory and legislative changes in that period significantly shifted a sector that had previously been primarily public or not-for-profit into a far more attractive field for private capital to occupy.

In Ontario, these policy changes included the elimination of a minimum-hours standard of care per resident, the de-linking of public funding flows from staffing levels, and the provision of 20-year streams of government payments to for-profit corporate operators to build new LTC facilities. When combined with serious shortages of available beds for a rapidly growing senior population, these policies greatly enhanced the sector’s profitability. Real estate and financial firms began buying up and consolidating individual homes (both private and non-profit) into larger, for-profit chains operating both publicly-supported LTC as well as what have come to be called “retirement residence” facilities or “retirement homes.” (In 2015, the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan expanded their interest in the retirement residences sector by combining the Amica chain of facilities with an existing portfolio of homes under the name Baybridge.)

As a result, investors in private LTC companies, such as Chartwell, have been rewarded with consistently high profit rates, ranging from 9.6% to 12.6% from 2007 to 2012 according to one study. While Revera’s profit rates are not disclosed – even to federal public service plan members – its tax-exempt status, bestowed as a result of its pension fund ownership, suggests that its annual profits may be even higher than this. But these profit levels are not disclosed, and most financial information is even redacted out of reporting required by requests using federal Access to Information legislation.

The Contradictions of ‘Pension Fund Capitalism’

The historic shift of pension fund practices, from primarily passive investment in stocks and bonds into active, direct operation of corporations such as Revera, raises challenging questions about the relationship between pension plan members and these controversial new portfolios. It has been suggested that this could have a perverse impact on the political views of plan members and their unions with respect to sensitive policy topics such as the private ownership of healthcare facilities. A columnist with the Toronto Sun recently suggested that trade union advocates of full public control over LTC facilities don’t appear to “have much to say” about care homes that are owned by “workers’ pension funds” – citing PSP’s ownership of Revera (along with the ownership of the Amica-Baybridge chain of residences noted above). When the workers who belong to such pension plans learn that “their” funds own and profit from these companies, the columnist argued, their perspective on the legitimacy of such private ownership will become more positive simply out of financial self-interest.

However, there are several reasons that this columnist’s confidence about this is misplaced. First, it is quite clear that until recently, very few members of the federal government pension plans that use PSP were even aware that “their” pension fund owns and operates Revera. Pension plan members are told very little about the portfolios or investment practices of their funds, with managers generally limiting such communication to their latest annual ‘rate of return’ and some very abstract commentary about their investment ‘principles’. If the 850,000 members of PSP’s client pension plans were told about its Revera operation, and the real, brutal basis of its profitability, it seems likely that a very large number would want nothing to do with it – if they had any choice in the matter.

Secondly, the membership of the pension plans that have their funds invested by PSP is composed primarily of public sector workers, most of whom are, or were, members of unions with strong commitments to public services and public ownership. It also includes over 400,000 retirees and survivors receiving benefits – at least some of whom are themselves likely to be residents of a troubled LTC facility operated by Revera or one of the other for-profit facilities. These members of the client plans of PSPIB may well be even more likely to support moving to a fully public long-term care system than the general public recently polled.

Third and most significantly, the recent exposure of Revera’s ownership by PSP has prompted the largest union representing federal public service workers – the Public Service Alliance of Canada (PSAC) – to follow up on previously-expressed concerns with a public call in May for the full-scale transfer of Revera to public ownership. PSAC president Chris Aylward argues that his union has long believed that these facilities should be publicly owned and managed. He argues that the growing number of recent class action lawsuits against Revera and the grave problems exposed by the COVID-19 crisis illustrate that the PSP’s ownership of this company now poses a clear “material risk” to plan members.

PSAC appears to be quite right about this risk. According to a Toronto Star investigation, some $1.5-billion in dividend-profits have been flowing into the pockets of private LTC company shareholders over the last decade – a figure that does not even include the unreported profits captured by Revera. Now, the disaster of the COVID-19 pandemic has provoked a number of multi-million dollar class action lawsuits citing negligence causing death against Revera, Sienna, and other private operators. This litigation, combined with concerns relating to both pandemic and pre-pandemic problems, has triggered a collapse in the share values of the large for-profit LTC companies. Will these companies continue to reap significant profits in the coming years?

The PSAC, other unions, and plan members, have a very good reason to oppose “their” fund being invested in this risky and socially harmful profiteering. The pro-public control statements, campaign launches, and other responses to this crisis from the labour movement suggest that the private corporate operators in this sector have already lost a great deal of their legitimacy. This includes PSP-Revera.

Revera and the For-Profit LTC Lobby

Whether these companies can survive financially may well be decided in the battle over public policy now being waged. Will governments bail out these troubled companies, which have for years extracted large profits by underinvesting and understaffing their facilities, while underpaying workers? In the past, it has been public policy decisions that determined the portion of public funding taken in by these private providers, and it has been government policy that protected the companies from the “costs” of minimal staffing standards – despite pressure from both resident advocates and unions.

But the pandemic has provoked an intensified policy “engagement” from the for-profit LTC sector in Ontario, which is likely to have parallels across the country. It was recently reported that five of the for-profit LTC corporations (including Revera) have enlisted the services of professional lobbyists who previously worked inside the Ford cabinet to lobby their former employers on their behalf. Their agenda in doing so is no secret – they will be looking to counter the popular momentum behind moving to public ownership and management of the LTC sector.

These lobbyists will press for urgent increases in the public funding that flows to them, such that their ongoing profitability will be secured. In fact, they have already scored an important victory with the Ford government’s rapid passage of quasi-bailout legislation (Bill 161) that will provide at least some measure of “immunity” to the for-profit providers, and itself, even from entirely valid COVID-19 death-related class action lawsuits. This measure was then supplemented by an announcement of a massive infusion of public funding for new and redeveloped LTC beds, much of which will flow to the for-profit entities.

Of course, such lobbying may not even be necessary, as established neoliberal reflexes are reinforced by the close links between the for-profit LTC industry and Ontario’s PC party (noted above). In addition to his appointment to the Board of LTC operator Chartwell, former Premier Mike Harris has also spent time as a ‘Fellow’ of the hard-right Fraser Institute, arguing alongside former Reform Party leader Preston Manning for the further privatization of Canada’s public healthcare system. As noted above, former Tory premier Bill Davis has had a seat on the PSP-Revera Board from its inception. His presence surely continues to serve a useful purpose, even symbolically. While both former Tory premiers have presumably received generous compensation for their services over the years, their most important role may be as communications conduits for company agendas.

Notwithstanding such existing linkages, these corporate-political relationships are further organized and brokered through the province’s industry lobby group mentioned above, the Ontario Long-Term Care Association (OLTCA). Alongside all of the other major for-profit firms, Revera is represented on the OLTCA Board of Directors by its Senior VP for Long Term Care, Wendy Gilmour, whose personal background is in private sector lab service companies CML and Lifelabs. The primary spokesperson for OLTCA, Donna Duncan, is yet another LTC industry player with past connections to Ontario Tory politicians, having served as policy director for then-PC leader John Tory in 2006 as well as “various” roles in the Government of Ontario in the 1996-2001 period (most of the Mike Harris years).

But Revera also intervenes politically on its own accord. From the time of its formation, the company – again, a subsidiary of a federal crown corporation – has made thousands of dollars in direct donations to those provincial political parties it sees as representing its interests. (Notably, according to the National Post’s donations database, the company has not reported any donations to the NDP.) In this context, we can anticipate that Revera, alongside its fellow for-profit LTC operators in Ontario and across Canada, will be working hard in the coming weeks to defend for-profit long-term care, and to politically oppose the growing popular calls to make the entire sector public.

Challenging Revera and ‘Pension Fund Capitalism’

Most workers do not want their pension benefits, or their RRSP or mutual fund investments, to be built from the exploitation of other workers, or the privatization and degradation of public services such as healthcare (including long-term care). For this reason, it should not be surprising that the pension and retirement fund industry appears to limit disclosure of their most politically sensitive investments. The PSAC’s call for relinquishing PSP’s ownership of this company, and its transfer into public hands, is an exceptionally bold demand. Similar calls from other unions representing federal public service workers, and from members of the general public, may well follow.

But while the Revera case may be a particularly disturbing example of predatory pension fund investment, it is not exceptional. The PSP also holds significant private equity stakes in corporate entities that own and operate other kinds of public infrastructure, including airports, electricity generation and transmission, toll highways, child care centres, and even a US company specializing in for-profit physician outsourcing. These are among the most socially and politically sensitive types of “public infrastructure,” and include investments into functions that many people in Canada (and many pension plan members) feel should be publicly owned and managed in the public interest.

These kinds of investment holdings and practices reflect an industry-wide 20-year trend among Canada’s large pension funds, including CPPIB, Ontario Teachers, Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ), and OMERS. Such pension fund strategies reflect the ongoing ‘financialization’ of vital public services and infrastructure. Virtually all of the largest Canada-based pension funds have channeled billions of dollars into these very same sectors, often in other countries where their controversial social impacts are less likely to be reported. As with the case of Revera and long-term care, these large pension funds have not only taken advantage of the opportunities that neoliberal policies have created, they have also collaborated and formed partnerships with other giants of global finance to maintain and extend them ever further.

These powerful collaborations and agendas must be politically challenged. When institutions of private capital like PSP-Revera run into inevitable clarifying moments – such as the COVID-19 pandemic – social movements of workers and public interest advocates need to seize them to build the counterweight we need. In this case, two key strategic initiatives present themselves. First, the tragic case of Revera, and the loud new calls for long-term care to be made fully public, offer an opening for those of us arguing that this system can only be fully fixed through a combination of accountable public ownership and enough public funding to allow the care work at its centre to be fully decommodified, valued, and properly compensated. Along with trade union and social advocacy campaigns in this direction, pension plan members and their unions can insist that any pension investments involving privatization or private for-profit management of public services and infrastructure be, at bare minimum, fully disclosed. As a principle, we should know what is being done in our name, with what we are told is “our” money. From there, we can entertain the serious debates needed about how we can work to ensure that the role currently played by pension funds and other forms of private capital in the provision of healthcare, social care, and other vital public services is phased out entirely.

Secondly, and over the longer term, the labour movement and the retirement security movement need to develop a strategy for reversing the expanded “financialization” of our pension system. That process has involved more than just workplace pension plans and fund managers like PSP. Through a series of public policy measures, the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and the Québec Pension Plan (QPP) were re-engineered into massive financial asset funds that now hold over $750-billion in global financial markets. As these funds were being built up, retirement security was being re-framed as an individual under-investment problem, to be solved through more private savings into individualized RRSPs and investment savings accounts – highly profitable products that channel these savings into financial markets with ecologically destructive and anti-social appetites. In that light, the Revera case and the COVID-19 pandemic have underlined the serious risks of building our vital social systems on a foundation of private financial profits. The alternative we now urgently need is a universal and adequate public pension system that is secured – like public healthcare – by our collective commitment to each other. 

Oh boy! I wasn't going to touch this with a ten-foot pole but after reading it, I decided it is definitely Pension Pulse worthy.

First, let me thank Sam Boskey for sending this comment. Sam is a proud Montreal and an even prouder Lefty. He he has been a provincial civil servant for many decades. He represented south-eastern NDG on Montreal City Council for most of the 1980s and 1990s, first for the Montreal Citizens’ Movement and later for the Democratic Coalition of Montreal, under three different Mayors.

Sam is part of an old email distribution list (called UGLYNEWWORLD) started by the late Sam Noumoff, a "radical Leftist" who taught politics at McGill University for decades (he was one of the nicest and smartest professors I ever had when I took an elective course he taught and I enjoyed many dinners with him and the rest of the Men's Club at Alep restaurant here in Montreal).

My own political and economic leanings are right of center but I've learned a lot about capitalism from guys like Sam Noumoff, Tom Naylor, George Archer, Jonathan Nitzan, Robin Rowley, Sam Boskey and others.

I have also openly stated on a few occasions that greatest intellectual tour de force I ever came across is professor Charles Taylor, a renowned political philosopher who is a card carrying member of the NDP. 

So if I used to hang around with all these Lefties and admire their intellectual prowess, why do I lean right of center? Maybe because I've worked in finance and genuinely believe in the primacy of the private sector. Without a strong, vibrant private sector, you simply can't afford to have a strong and vibrant public sector.

It doesn't mean I think capitalism is perfect, far from it, and I will touch more about it tomorrow when I go over Ray Dalio's latest warning on the crisis of capitalism:

Now, let me get back to Kevin Skerrett's comment above as it's extremely critical not just of PSP-Revera, but also of the process he has dubbed as "pension fund capitalism" which according to him, pervades all of Canada's large public pensions and is a real cause for concern as it exposes all these large public pension to "predatory pension investments".

Before I share my thoughts with you on the comment above, please note I did send it to PSP's President and CEO, Neil Cunningham, as well as to Darren Baccus, Senior Vice President and Global Head of Real Estate and Natural Resources, over the weekend. 

Not surprisingly, they didn't get back to me and are probably reluctant to discuss this comment publicly for legal reasons (Mr. Baccus used to head up PSP's Legal department so I'm sure he told Neil not to comment and PSP generally avoids making any public comments).

That's fine, I totally understand PSP's corporate culture but I would have appreciated some feedback.

I think it's fair to state Revera has been an unmitigated communications disaster for PSP Investments:

From that last article:

In a column on May 11, I reported that the federal government owns 100 per cent of the second largest chain of for-profit nursing homes and retirement residences in Canada, Revera Inc., which, as it happens, is also the second largest for-profit operator in the United States.

That ownership is held through a Crown corporation, the Public Sector Pension Investment Board, which invests the pension contributions of federal public servants, Canadian Armed Forces and the RCMP. PSP Investments, as it known, created Revera in 2007 when it purchased retirement residences and LTC homes from the Reichmann family.

Although none of the five nursing homes in the military report is owned by Revera, the company has been the focus of considerable controversy and legal activity. Its Forest Heights Long-Term Care Centre in Kitchener has been the epicentre of the COVID-19 crisis in Waterloo Region, as another Revera property, McKenzie Towne Continuing Care Centre, has been in Calgary.

Dozens of lawsuits have been filed over deaths at Revera homes in Western Canada and Ontario. In the largest COVID-related class action in Canada, six representative plaintiffs are seeking $120 million in damages against Revera and Sienna Senior Living Inc., another for-profit chain.

Even without the COVID-19 deaths and lawsuits, why the government would want to be in the business of squeezing profit from the care of frail, elderly citizens is a question that deserves to be asked.

It was not until last Thursday, however, that the question finally got asked, by NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, and answered, after a fashion, by Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland. She said federal pensions funds are managed by independent Crown corporations — in addition to the PSPIB, there is a separate Crown corporation for the Canada Pension Plan. But, she added, the “ownership structure” of LTC facilities “is something that needs on be on the table.”

I am puzzled by the PSPIB. In its 2019 annual report, the investment board expresses sensitivity to environmental issues: “We strongly believe that environmental, social and governance factors — such as climate change, health and safety and ethical conduct — are material to long-term returns and that we need to integrate them into our investment decision-making processes.”

But there is no indication in the report that the board has any interest in the care, or lack of care, of patients in the LTC homes it holds for the federal government.

I went over PSP's 2009 Annual Report. Back then, they used to post the compensation of Revera's CEO:


And they added a footnote: "Mr. Watchorn is not an employee of PSP Investments, but is employed by Revera Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of PSP Investments. His compensation is based on a contract with Revera Inc. Revera Inc.’s financial year ends on December 31."

Today, Revera Inc. is run by Thomas G. Wellner, and his senior managers:


I'm not sure how much Mr. Wellner earns but I'm sure it's market rate which is a few million a year.

Now, to be fair and completely honest, I haven't reached out to anyone at Revera, I don't know them at all and I'm sure they have been extremely busy ever since the pandemic hit Canada.

It's also worth noting that this isn't the first time Revera has received bad press. 

In 2016, a Toronto malpractice lawyer launched an unprecedented multimillion dollar class-action lawsuit against Revera, charging that it routinely neglected or mistreated elderly residents.

The multimillion-dollar suit was prompted by the case of Ross Jones, a 68-year-old man who allegedly spent the last days of his life in agony, an infected pressure sore left untreated by a Revera Inc. facility.


At the time, John Beaney, a former Revera vice-president, said he could not comment on the specifics of the allegations, but argued the suit lacks merit:

“We’ve been operating as an organization for more than 50 years … and have successfully cared for hundreds of thousands of people,” he said.  “We’re very proud of our dedicated employees who provide that care.”

He also noted that nursing home residents have increasingly complex health issues, their deaths often a result of multiple factors.

“When a resident passes away … it’s not black and white and this can understandably make it difficult for loved ones, who seek answers in those cases.”

Mr. Beaney is still with Revera, SVP Retirement, and I never found out the fallout from this class action lawsuit. 

He is right about one thing, nursing home residents have increasingly complex health issues, and their deaths often are a result of multiple factors. 

It's easy to point the finger at neglect and mistreatment, sometimes it's just that there are underlying health conditions which are very complex and can make the old and frail a lot more vulnerable to death.

We saw this with COVID-19. Canada's long-term care facilities (LTC) got hit very hard. 

We have one of the worst track records among any OECD nation, if not the worst. 

From Quebec to Ontario to British Columbia, public and private long-term care facilities got hit hard during this pandemic, and we lost too many people that quite honestly, shouldn't have died.

Importantly, we as a nation failed our most vulnerable citizens, we should all be ashamed of this.

But to politicize this tragedy the way Kevin Skerrett does above and to blame it on "pension fund capitalism" and "predatory pension investments" is just ridiculous and plain wrong.

I can tell you for a fact, one of the worst hit long-term care facilities in the country was Town of Mount-Royal's Vigi Home, right in my backyard.

Investigators are still looking into catastrophic outbreak that infected all residents of TMR seniors' home, killing over 70 people. 

The Canadian Armed Forces were called in, I saw them in the parking lot loading up dead bodies, it was horrific.

Anyway, the Army report found workers at this publicly run facility stole PPEs (personal protective equipment) and neglected patients, it was a disaster.

Now, to be fair, another bigger catastrophe in Montreal was CHSLD Herron, a privately run long-term care facility run by incompetent fools who were tied to the mob and where abuse and neglect was rampant.

The point is there are plenty of cases of mismanagement, neglect and abuse at both private and public long-term care facilities in Canada, and I question Mr. Skerrett's biased comment which basically claims abuse and neglect was much worse at for profit facilities.

This isn't to say we don't need a commission to investigate what went wrong and how we can make sure this never happens again but to blame private long-term facilities and neoliberal deregulation is just a bunch of left-wing nonsense. 

I can't stomach that crap and I don't care if it comes from Mr. Skerrett, CUPE or PSAC.

What else do I find ridiculous in his comment? His entire discussion on pension fund capitalism and predatory pension investments is so ill-informed and just plain ludicrous.

Canada's large pensions are known to be the best pension in the world. That's a fact.    

They are run like businesses and are run by professionals who have extensive experience managing public and private assets in the best long-term interests of their members. 

Importantly, the cornerstone to their success is a governance model which keeps government out of their day-to-day operations.

All this is totally lost on Mr. Skerrett and these public sector unions whose members benefit the most from the success of the Canada model".

Is the governance at Canada's large public pensions perfect? No, it isn't, it's a work in progress, but to lambast them and accuse them of "predatory pension investments" is so wrong on so many levels.

I know Neil Cunningham, PSP's President and CEO. I guarantee you he has had multiple calls with Mr. Wellner, Revera's CEO, over the past six months to discuss the pandemic and how they are treating and caring for their patients.

There's no doubt in my mind Neil cares about these people, none whatsoever, and if he thought Revera was doing a lousy job, heads would have rolled. I'm convinced of this.

All this to say it's easy for Mr. Skerrett and others to criticize form the outside, they have no clue what is going on in the background.

And I'd rather have PSP Investments managing long-term care facilities than some bozo government agency where there's literally no accountability whatsoever.

Having said all this, I do agree with Mr. Skerrett on one thing, the pandemic has exposed PSP and its members to litigation risk and this can go on for years and potentially cost cost hundreds of millions of dollars. There will also be increased regulations and much more scrutiny on all long-term care facilities.

That all remains to be seen, however, so it's hard to gauge the fallout right now.

The other problem for PSP and other large pensions investing in long-term care facilities is how the pandemic will impact demand in the years to come.

On the one hand, more people are getting older with all sorts of health conditions and will require long-term care, on the other, I'm not so sure people will be carting their loved ones off to a long-term care facility as they have been doing pre-COVID. I wouldn't want to see my loved ones die like that, nobody would. 

Alright, I realize this is a long comment, but I needed to cover this topic and give you my thoughts.

If you have anything to add, feel free to reach out to me at LKolivakis@gmail.com.

Below, Revera CEO Thomas Wellner welcomes you to Revera .He doesn't sound like an evil capitalist to me. 

Also, a Director of Care explains a day in her life at Revera. Remember, Revera is global now.

Lastly, the Canadian military's report into Quebec's long-term care homes during the COVID-19 crisis found ongoing staff shortages and issues with the use of personal protective equipment. 

As I stated above, this is a national tragedy, a disgrace that needs to be thoroughly investigated and we need to learn and make sure it never happens ever again at public and private long-term care facilities.

Update: Wayne Kozun, CIO at Forthlane Partners and former SVP at OTPP, shared this with me after reading this comment:

 I enjoyed your response to this Leo.  A couple of other things I would add.

  • The story implies that it was just recently "revealed" that PSP owns Revera.  You showed that there was info on Revera in PSP's annual report from 11 years ago.  This was not a secret. If PSP members were not aware that the plan owned Revera then that is their own ignorance of failing to pay attention. 
  • The story talks about privatization of LTC. I am not an expert on this, but I don't think that LTC homes were ever primarily government owned institutions.  These were always privately run. You can argue that for profit is not a good model, but that is a different issue.
  • Amica/Baybridge is mentioned in the article.  I was part of OTPP creating Baybridge. Baybridge owns and operates independent living and assisted living homes, not LTC.  The difference is that LTC are nursing homes that are populated by very old and frail people. Independent living and assisted living are different and have much less of a healthcare component. They are more like apartment buildings for seniors with food service and some lighter nursing care.

I thank Wayne for sharing his wise insights with my readers.


Big Oil For the Long Run?

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Fred Imbert and Yun Li report the Dow drops 200 points, S&P 500 and Nasdaq fall for third straight week:

Stocks fell on Friday to end a volatile week as investors continued to dump shares of high-flying tech companies. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 370 points, or more than 1%. The S&P 500 dropped 1.7% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.2%.

Those losses put the major averages on track for their third straight one-week losses, which would be their longest weekly losing streaks in about a year. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down more than 1% each week to date; the Dow has lost 0.3% in that time. The S&P 500 also hit its lowest level this month after reaching an all-time high on Sept. 2.

Shares of Apple dropped more than 3%. Microsoft and Alphabet also pulled back by more than 3% along with Amazon. Netflix slipped 2.3%. Facebook was down by 1.5%. Oracle, meanwhile, slipped 1.1% after the U.S. government said it will block all TikTok and WeChat downloads in the country on Sunday. Oracle is trying to take a minority stake in TikTok-parent ByteDance.

Big Tech is down broadly week to date. Facebook and Amazon have each dropped more than 5.5% week to date. Alphabet, Netflix, Apple and Microsoft are also down sharply over that time period. For the month, all six stocks are down more than 11%. Apple, specifically, has plunged more than 17% in September. 

“We’re seeing short-term under performance from these stock but also outperformance over the long term,” said Mark Travis, CEO of Intrepid Capital. However, he noted that tech’s struggles are likely to be short-lived. Many of these companies “generate a lot of cash and have impenetrable balance sheets. They are also ubiquitous in terms of people’s use of them.”

The S&P 500 tech sector was down 2.6% and was on pace for its first three-week losing streak since September 2019.

Friday’s moves come as a series of individual stock, ETF and index options are set to expire. This could lead to volatile trading as small and large investors alike unwind these positions ahead of the expirations. 

 “If you look at the options activity, we knew it was elevated in the technology names for the month and the quarter,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities. “It’s definitely going to have a large influence on the underlying activity...It’s probably had an impact on stocks today and earlier in the week.”

Wall Street was coming off a sharp drop in the previous session as investors were on edge about the outlook on further coronavirus stimulus as well as the timing of a viable vaccine. Republicans and Democrats are still struggling to agree on how much aid to continue to provide in a follow-up bill to the previous $2 trillion package. President Donald Trump said Wednesday he liked “the larger numbers,” urging GOP lawmakers to go for a bigger coronavirus stimulus, but his comments left Republicans skeptical.

“The signs point to a decelerating U.S. economic recovery and increasing thematic risks,” analysts at MarketDesk Research said in a note. “It feels as if the bullish market narrative is changing in real time. Given all of the headline risks, we would error on the side of caution in the coming months.”

Meanwhile, the path to a Covid-19 vaccine, which is critical to the economic recovery, still seems unclear. Health officials said vaccinations would be in limited quantities this year and not widely distributed for six to nine months.

“A safe and transparent vaccination process is critical to encouraging widespread inoculations once effective vaccines are identified and tested.” Mark Haefele, UBS Global Wealth Management’s chief investment officer, said in a note. “In our central scenario, we expect widespread vaccine availability by 2Q21.”

It's Friday, has been a long week so let me get right into it as there's lots to cover on markets.

First, late this afternoon, President Trump said the US will manufacture enough coronavirus vaccine doses for every American by April, putting him at odds with CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield said earlier this week that the US wouldn’t start vaccinating people until November or December at the earliest and the doses would be limited at first. 

Dr. Redfield initially said a vaccine wouldn’t be widely available until the summer or early fall of next year before walking those comments back after Trump said he was mistaken:

Welcome to the final stretch of US election season, my prediction is we are going to be hearing a lot about the "vaccine" and how everyone will be vaccinated early next year.

My prediction? Don't expect widespread vaccine availability by 2Q21, it will be more like the third or fourth quarter if we're lucky.

Luckily, there is some good news on the treatment front but we need to be patient:

Till then, wash your hands often, wear your mask in public, keep your distance from people (or avoid them altogether), take your daily dose of vitamin D, eat properly and get plenty of sleep to make sure your immune system remains strong.

There's no "magic bullet" for COVID, if everyone adopted the steps I outlined above, we would collectively beat this bloody virus with or without a vaccine.

Alright, back to markets. Here is the performance of the major S&P sectors over the past week (price returns, not total returns):


No,  your eyes aren't deceiving you, Energy (XLE) was the top performing sector this week, up 2.9%, followed by Industrials (XLI), Materials (XME) and Healthcare (XLV), each gaining roughly 1%. Consumer discretionary (XLY) was the worst sector, down 2.3%, and that's mostly due to the pullback in Amazon (AMZN).

Interestingly, here are the 5-year weekly charts of Energy, Industrials and Materials:



A few brief comments. I'm bullish Energy over the long run here. I know it's not "ESG sexy" to recommend traditional energy companies but they're selling at historically low multiples, providing great dividends and five years from now, they will be selling at materially higher prices.

Now, someone on LinkedIn posted BP's Energy Outlook 2020 and it has a bunch of bearish graphs on oil demand plummeting. 

Initially, I found this report concerning, then I spoke to a friend who told me to "ignore it" because "BP is still reeling from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill that occurred ten years ago and it wants to promote its shift to renewable energy to score ESG points with investors."

My friend has been buying Exxon Mobil shares (XOM) lately and he plans on waiting them out, like he did with Home Depot (HD) years ago when it fell to $25. "Exxon won't cut its dividend, it will continue borrowing to make it and what will likely happen is they will cut capital expenditures and that's when shares will really take off."

In the short-term, however, he agreed with me that anything can happen as there may be one final washout in energy shares going into year-end, but that remains to be seen and they could just as easily continue to rally based on the Economist's cover:

Just keep this in mind, Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) make up almost 50% of the Energy ETF (XLE), so either one of them is a good stock to pick or stick to the ETF (XLE).

Industrials (XLI) have been on fire since bottoming in March led by components like Union Pacific (UNP), Honeywell (HON), United Parcel Service (UPS), 3M (MMM), and Caterpillar (CAT). Even General Electric (GE) woke up this week to join the industrials party.

Will they make a new high? There I'm skeptical unless we see clear evidence that global growth is coming back strong or emerging markets are ready to take off. 

And right now, I'd say emerging markets shares (EEM) are at a critical point and look ready to roll over:


So, based on this, it's hard for me to get all excited about Industrials making a new high.

The same goes for Materials (XME) which have had an incredible run lately led by Newmont (NEM), Freeport (FCX) but also smaller components like US Steel (X) and Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) .

For me, these are tradable rallies but don't overstay your welcome, I'm much more comfortable in Energy if you want to play the long game.

What about tech shares? I'm bearish but admit you might see a bounce off the 20-week moving average in the near term and one last hurrah going into year-end:


We shall see, but my inclination is to sell any tech rip and if you're looking to buy the big tech dip, wait till you see the Nasdaq-100 plunge below its 200-week moving average.

That might sound "catastrophic" to Nasdaq bulls and hedge funds loading up on tech shares but truth be told, the top Nasdaq heavy hitters are selling at ridiculous multiples and it's such a crowded trade that if something goes wrong, these stocks are toast.

The problem with tech is if it tanks, it will bring the entire market down:

So be careful investing in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), it is vulnerable to a tech wreck.

Alright, I was going to discuss Ray Dalio and the crisis of capitalism but think I'll leave that for early next week, I've covered enough here and want to rest a little as it's been a long week.

Still, Dalio spoke to Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker earlier this week stating that very large deficits are on the way no matter who is elected in the 2020 presidential election and says he's very concerned about U.S.-China tensions. Take the time to watch this clip.

And Paul Sankey, Sankey Research analyst,spoke with CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Guy Adami, Tim Seymour, Brian Kelly and Pete Najarian three weeks ago stating Big Oil isn't dead forever. It certainly isn't so be weary of those Economist covers.

On Ray Dalio's Latest Shocking Warning

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Jonathan Burton of MarketWatch reports that the founder of the world's largest hedge fund thinks the world is going to change ‘in shocking ways’ in the next five years: 

Ray Dalio certainly is no radical idealist, but in his frequent writings and media appearances the veteran investor consistently calls for Americans to rewrite their longstanding contract with capitalism so that it is fairer and more generous to more people.

Otherwise, he predicts, life in the U.S. could become more difficult: mountainous debt that stunts economic growth; fewer opportunities for ordinary citizens to get ahead financially; and a worldwide lack of trust in the U.S. dollar that diminishes Americans’ purchasing power and could lower their standard of living.

Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, which has made him a billionaire. So it’s not surprising that he champions capitalism as a proven way to expand economic growth and living standards.

“Capitalism and capitalists are good at increasing and producing productivity to increase the size of the economic pie,” he says.

Then Dalio stands this tenet on its head. Capitalists don’t divide the economic pie very well, he says, and so today the capitalist system, the foundation of the U.S. economy, is not working efficiently and effectively enough for all.

“Capitalism also produces large wealth gaps that produce opportunity gaps, which threaten the system,” Dalio says — a system that has been and still is key to the health and success of U.S. business, workers, government and investors alike.

Unless the U.S. takes steps to make systemic repairs designed to provide greater opportunity for more Americans to achieve personal growth and financial security, the consequences likely will be painful for the country, as Dalio explains in this recent telephone interview, which has been edited for length and clarity:

MarketWatch: You have written and spoken about three big domestic and international problems facing the U.S. over the next five to 10 years and how a failure to address these challenges could threaten America’s standing in the world. What are these three pressing problems?

Ray Dalio: I look at it mechanically, like a doctor looking at a disease. If asked what is the issue here, I would say that it is a certain type of disease that has certain patterns which are timeless and universal, and the United States is broadly following that progression.

There are three problems that are coming together, so it’s important to understand them individually and how they collectively make a bigger problem. 

There is a money and credit cycle problem, a wealth and values gap problem, and an emerging great power challenging the existing dominant power problem. What’s going on is an economic downturn together with a large wealth gap and the rising power of China challenging the existing power of the United States.

It’s a fact that there has been a weakening of the competitive advantages of the United States over the last couple of decades. For example, the United States lost a lot of the education advantage relative to other countries, our share of world GDP is reduced, the wealth gap has increased which has contributed to our political and social polarization.

But we haven’t lost all of our competitive advantages. For example in innovation and technology, the United States is still the strongest, but China is coming on very strong and at existing rates will surpass the United States. Militarily, the U.S. is stronger but China also has come on very strong and is probably stronger in the waters close to China that include Taiwan and other disputed areas. Finances for both countries are challenging, but for the U.S. more so. The U.S. is in the late stages of a debt cycle and money cycle in which we’re producing a lot of debt and printing a lot of money. That’s a problem. As a reserve currency status, the U.S. dollar DXY, 0.78% is still dominant though its being threatened by its central bank printing of money and increasing the debt production problem. 

MarketWatch: Focusing on the money and credit problem, excessive debt can be a killer for businesses and families, but most people don’t seem to recognize that debt plays havoc with their country’s finances as well. Government runs the money printing press, which buys time, but eventually something’s got to give.

Dalio: If you look at the history — for example, the Dutch Empire, the British Empire — both experienced the creation of debt and the printing of money, less educational advantages, greater internal wealth conflict, greater challenges from rival countries. Every country has stress tests. If you look at British history, the development of rival countries led them to lose their competitive advantages. Their finances were bad because they had accumulated a lot of debt. So, after World War II those trends went against them. Then they had the Suez Canal incident and they were no longer a world power and the British pound is no longer a reserve currency.  These diseases almost always play out the same way.  

The United States’ relative position in the world, which was dominant in almost all these categories at the beginning of this world order in 1945, has declined and is exhibiting real signs that should raise worries. There’s a lot of baggage. The U.S. has a lot of debt, which is adding to the hurdles that typically drag an economy down, so in order to succeed, you have to do a pretty big debt restructuring. History shows what kind of a challenge that is.

I just want to present understanding and facts. There’s a life cycle. You’re born and you die. As you get older you can see certain things that are symptoms of being later on in life. To know the life cycle and to know that these symptoms are emerging is what I’m trying to convey. The United States is a 75-year-old empire and it is exhibiting signs of decline. If you want to extend your life, there are clear things you can do, but it means doing things that you don’t want to do.

MarketWatch: Let’s put it bluntly: Is capitalism broken?

Dalio: I wouldn’t say broken as much as I’d say it has problems that have to be fixed. As I said, I’m not ideological, I’m mechanical. I look at everything operationally like a machine and what has been shown is that capitalism is a fabulous way of creating incentives and innovation and of allocating resources to create productivity. All successful countries have uses for it. For example, communist China has chosen capitalism, which has been essential to its growth.

But capitalism also produces large wealth gaps that produce opportunity gaps, which threaten the system in the ways we are seeing now. Wealth gaps give unfair advantages to the children of rich people because they get a better education, which undermines the equal opportunity notion. As the number of people who get equal opportunity diminishes, this reduces the possibility of finding talented people in that population, which isn’t fair and undermines productivity. Then the have-nots want to tear down the capitalist system at a time of bad economic conditions. That dynamic has always existed in history and it’s happening now. 

The capitalist system is based on profit-seeking being the resource allocation system, which generally works well but doesn’t always. So, capitalism and capitalists are good at increasing and producing productivity to increase the size of the economic pie, but they’re not good at dividing the economic opportunity pie. Socialists are generally not good at increasing productivity and the size of the economic opportunity pie, but they are better at dividing the pie. 

We now have too much emphasis on distributing wealth and getting it from producing debt and printing money, and not enough from increasing productivity. Wealth cannot be created by creating debt and money. We have to be productive together, so we have to look at the good investments that we can make together that make total sense, like in education, and create equal opportunity in order to be productive.

We have to be in this together. The system needs to be reengineered to do this. But if we don’t do this engineering well, we’re going to spend in an unlimited way and deal with that by creating debt that won’t ever be paid back, and we will risk losing the reserve currency status of the dollar. If we get into that position — and we’re very close — things will get much worse because we are living on borrowed money that’s financing our consumption. 

MarketWatch: About the dollar being threatened as the world’s reserve currency — what does “close” mean, and what would the decline of this status mean for Americans?

Dalio:Within the next five years you could see a situation in which foreigners who have been lending money to the United States won’t want to, and the dollar would not be as readily accepted for making purchases in the world as it is now.

We have to realize that we’re spending more than we’re earning. Every individual, every company and every country has an income statement and a balance sheet. The income statement is how much is your earnings are relative to your expenses. If your earnings are greater than your expenses, great, you will increase your balance sheet. If your earnings are less than your expenses, then you have to draw on your balance sheet. 

The United States doesn’t have a good income statement and balance sheet in dealing with the rest of the world. It is running a deficit to the rest of the world that is financed by borrowing money so that we are producing liabilities. Our living standards are based on our spending, not on our income statement or balance sheet. If the U.S. loses that ability and it doesn’t force itself to be more productive, one day it will lose that ability to borrow and then will have to cut spending, which is painful.

When that pain happens at a time when you have the population at each other’s throats over money, that’s a toxic combination. People can’t take a downturn and have less buying power. So, necessarily the poor will have to be getting money from the rich and the rich are going to want to prevent that, and then if it gets bad enough, that it messes up productivity. 

MarketWatch: What steps do politicians and business leaders need to take now to create and implement reforms that will fortify the U.S. balance sheet and the dollar’s status?

Dalio: In brief, productivity and equal opportunity are most needed. If we could at least agree that we must have these things, that would be great. What we have now is a situation in which we’re fighting each other, we are not providing equal opportunity, and we are losing our productivity gains. 

One of the greatest problems is that everybody’s fighting for their cause. When the causes people are fighting for are more important to them than the system that binds them together, the system is in jeopardy. This seems to now be happening. Everybody has their cause and they’re almost losing sight of the overall picture. Democracy depends on compromise. It’s the notion of compromise and working together and being able to have a negotiation to get what the most people want rather than have one side beat the other.

You really have to take the relative parties and make them agree on what’s going to be best. The group has got to be bipartisan and they have to be knowledgeable. Bring together parties of opposing ideologies who are also knowledgeable, not just smart but who are on the ground, to come up with a  plan together that all can support so that we’re productive, increasing the size of the pie and dividing it well. It would be great if whoever the president is could draw upon people from both parties and different perspectives.

MarketWatch: As Americans prepare for a presidential election in November, the three major problems you mentioned earlier would seem to be important factors for voters to consider.

Dalio: Yes. The world is going to change in the next five years in shocking ways in relation to the three big issues we have been talking about. 

First, there’s a debt-money cycle — what is the value of money? What will happen to the debt? Will the dollar retain its value? The finances of this — who is going to pay for it? How? What will work? That’s number one.

Second, the wealth, opportunity and values gaps will have to be dealt with. Are we going to be at each other’s throats in a way that is harmful or are we going to be working together even if things get worse? 

Third is the rising of a great power in China to challenge the existing power of the United States. Will this be well handled?

We will be dealing with these issues in the next presidential term, which will have a huge effect on our outcomes. The last time those three things existed as they do now was the 1930 to 1945 period. That’s the last time you had zero interest rates and money printing. That’s the last time you had the wealth and political gaps as large as they are today, and it was the last time you had rising powers challenging the existing world order. This and many analogous times before it help to give us perspective. 

MarketWatch: These and other domestic and international challenges will clearly affect Americans financially. What would be a smart, proactive strategy for investors to both protect a portfolio and take advantage of market opportunities?

Dalio: First, worry as much about the value of your money as you worry about the value of your investments. The printing of money and the debt should make you aware of that. That’s why financial asset prices have gone up — stocks, gold — because of the debt and money creation. You don’t want to own the thing you think is safest — cash. 

Second, know how to diversify well. That includes diversification of countries, currencies and assets, because wealth is not so much destroyed as it shifts. When something goes down, something else is going up so you have to look at all things on a relative basis. Diversify well and worry about the value of cash. 

Americans look at the value of everything in U.S. dollars, but they don’t look at the value of the dollar. You’re in an environment where you have to be cautious about that, because the easiest way out for government is to do what the U.S. just did, which is to borrow and print a lot of money. They don’t have to get it from anyone, because when they raise taxes they have to get it from somebody and that somebody squawks. The population doesn’t pay much attention to the debt and the printing of money. They all appreciate the giving of money. So you hear the population say, “I need more money,” and get angry if they don’t get it. So you’ve got to give them more money, and it’s easier not to take it away from someone else. 

Ray Dalio is at it again, talking about the crisis of capitalism. 

Recall, back in January 2019, I discussed Dalio and the limits of capitalism

One of the best quotes after I wrote that comment came from Jonathan Nitzan, professor of political economy at York who shared this:

Conventional economics associates income -- and therefore its distribution -- with factor productivity. This theory, formulated by J.B. Clark in 1899, remains dominant. Its main claim is that if the Dalios of this world earn 25,000 times the salary of their workers, it is only because they are 25,000 times more productive, and if society wants to reduce this inequality gap, it can do so only by making workers more productive.

The problem with this 'modest proposal' is threefold.

First, their claims to the contrary notwithstanding, economists do not know how to measure factor productivity, and therefore have no proof whatsoever that that this "productivity" correlates with income.

Second, income does correlate, and rather tightly, with measured hierarchical power -- see the 2018 article of Blair Fix on 'The Trouble with Human Capital Theory' (http://bnarchives.yorku.ca/568/).

Third and finally, calls by "enlightened investors" to do something about growing inequality betray their built-in schizophrenia: on the one hand, their very quest for power forces them to increase income inequality without end, while, on the other hand, they realize that ultimately, this very process is bound to spell their own demise

Jonathan is absolutely right, the very problem with capitalism is it flourishes when capitalists are in power and inequality continues to rise and if we divide the pie more fairly, it will impact the very elite who are warning of rising inequality.

These days, Dalio isn't a good capitalist as the hedge fund firm he founded is reeling after suffering massive losses thus far this year:

Of course, like a good capitalist, he responded to his own internal crisis:

And his lieutenant has a plan to come out of this mess:

We shall see if Bridgewater bounces back, I think this year is a write-off unless markets continue to deteriorate, which is a real  possibility:

Interestingly, Dalio is criticizing and warning of the very capitalist system which has propelled him and other hedge fund and private equity moguls to the elite club of global billionaires.

Let me give you my quick comments on what Ray Dalio spoke about at the top of this comment:

  • First, Ray Dalio is impressive and formidable. I met him long ago and he has a strong character, can be very intimidating when he disagrees with you and for good reason, he built the most successful hedge fund franchise to a global powerhouse (I still consider Ken Griffin to be the real king of hedge funds). 
  • But as smart as Ray Dalio is, he's an intellectual lightweight when it comes to understanding what ails capitalism. And I'm not saying this to denigrate the man. Long before Ray, there was another formidable and intimidating mind who literally wrote the book on what ails capitalism. His name? Karl Marx and if you really want to understand (and save) capitalism, you'd better read Das Capital a few times. The other book I keep mentioning on my blog, is C. Wright Mills' classic, The Power Elite. If you really want to understand modern day capitalism, read this book too, it will open your eyes and I guarantee you will become more informed and a better trader/ investor/ citizen of the world once you understand who is making all the decisions in the background.
  • The reason why we are so fixated on what Ray Dalio has to say is because we live in a world where people glorify the rich and famous. Ray Dalio and George Soros are two of the richest hedge fund managers, we'd better pay attention to what they say. The same goes for Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos. I say bullocks! I'd rather read what real intellectual powerhouses like Charles Taylor or Martha Nussbaum have to say about the world we live in.
  • Having said this, Ray Dalio and George Soros are part of the power elite, so it is worth paying attention to what they have to say, always with a critical eye.
  • In his comments above -- and I'm not just saying this to be critical -- there's a lot I disagree with. For example, the US debt bomb is inherently bad and will ultimately lead to the decline of Pax Americana and the greenback. Rubbish! The US economy has grown the most when debt was rising, and declined the most when fiscal conservatives took over and tightened the purse strings. I'm not saying that debt is good, it's good when used productively and harnessed to build long-lasting growth.
  • I don't buy the argument that America's lenders will stop lending to the US. And where will they go? There's a reason why everyone invests in US stock and bond markets. They are the biggest, most liquid and the most transparent markets in the world. They have the best growth companies listed on their exchanges as well as many unlisted but domiciled in the US. And in a world of ultra low rates where all investors are starving for growth, that puts the US at a competitive advantage over everyone else. Importantly, America will always have a current account deficit and that necessarily means it is running a capital account surplus which benefits Wall Street and Ray Dalio and his macro team at Bridgewater know this all too well (or they should). This is why I am a long-term bull on the US dollar and think a lot of dollar bears have it all wrong.
  • What about the rise of China? What about it? China is an economic powerhouse but China remains a communist country. There is an indissoluble incompatibility between being a communist country and creating the top technological firms in the world, unless of course, you steal technology from abroad. Ray is right about one thing, there most definitely is a geopolitical showdown going on right now, but it's China not the US, that stands to lose the most over the coming decade(s). And that power struggle might threaten China's power elite and their quest to maintain social order in a system that is already strained and faces huge demographic problems.
  • What about Ray's comments on rising inequality? He's right about that, has been beating this drum for some time, but the problem is we live in a world of financial communism, not capitalism. Let me explain. After each and every crisis, the Fed and other central banks lower rates and are now engaging in massive quantitative easing (QE), inflating their balance sheets to unprecedented levels. This isn't debt in the traditional sense. Central banks are making a killing off these transactions because they're buying assets on the cheap, holding them indefinitely in their books, waiting for the cycle to turn. But in doing so, they are creating asset inflation and housing inflation, not widespread consumer price inflation which can only come via sustained wage gains. 
  • Asset inflation benefits asset managers, especially elite hedge funds and private equity funds front-running the Fed and other central banks. It doesn't benefit the rest of the population in any meaningful sense. Sure, 401(k) balances have risen since March lows and some Robinhoodies are making a killing trading Tesla and tech shares but these are paltry gains compared to what the elite are making. Not just hedge funds, private equity funds too stand to make the most as the Fed buys junk bond debt so they can load their companies up with debt and pay themselves big fat dividends.
  • It's not all black and white, the world is far more complex than I'm portraying it but it's fair to say the pandemic has been a boon for tech moguls, Wall Street's elite and some corporate titans buying back their shares with free money the Fed is providing by snapping up high yield and investment grade bonds.
  • Meanwhile, the people on Main Street are hurting as restaurants, retail stores, hotels, bars and casinos close up, some for good. A whole new class of permanently unemployed people are rightly wondering who's going to bail them out?
  • Good question and here's my answer. No matter who wins the next election, get ready, we will see universal basic income (UBI). It's coming, not because the ultra wealthy elites want it, they don't, but because it's a way to assuage the masses while the elites continue to make off like bandits. Karl Marx once noted "religion is the opiate of the masses". Today's capitalists have taken that one step further: "government handouts will be the new opiate of the masses". In short, let them have their crumbs, watch their Netflix, play with their TiKTok app, spend hours perusing nonsense on Instagram, pretty much anything to lobotomize and assuage the masses so we can continue to steal trillions and become richer than ever.

I realize some of you might find my opinions harsh but if you want to see harsh, look at the Fed's unorthodox policies and how central banks have systematically screwed pensioners all over the world while enriching financial speculators.

In fact, Jeroen Blokland recently posted this on LinkedIn, on how the traditional 60/40 portfolio won't work as well buffering during downturns because bond yields are at ultra-low levels:


I replied:

"Central banks have been systematically screwing pensioners by forcing everyone to take on more risk in search of yield. The result of all this financial repression will be catastrophic for those who don’t have access to a gold-plated defined benefit plan, which is the majority of the global population." 

I stand by those comments, we are entering a period where private and public pensions are at risk, as are the billions in private savings in 401(k) plans.

Pension poverty is a big theme of this blog, it is deflationary because it exacerbates rising inequality. The more people retire with little to no savings, the worse off it is for the economy and governments trying to generates sales and income taxes.

Anyways, I've rambled on way too much but tried to give you all my thinking on important trends and issues and why I take a lot of what Ray Dalio says with a grain of salt. 

If it's one thing I'd like all you young financial analysts to develop is critical thinking, don't be intimidated by any hedge fund or private equity hot shot, form your own opinions and don't be afraid to stick your neck out.

If you get your head handed to you, that's fine, it's all part of the long game. 

Lastly, if you don't think the next Supreme Court Justice matters for capitalists, think again:


Below, Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio spoke to Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker last week stating that very large deficits are on the way no matter who is elected in the 2020 presidential election and says he's very concerned about U.S.-China tensions. Take the time to watch this clip.

CPP Investments Reviewing its Bond Holdings?

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Saheli Roy Choudhury of CNBC reports that Canada’s massive pension fund is reviewing its bond holdings in light of near zero interest rates, CEO says:

Central banks have slashed interest rates this year in an effort to revive economies ravaged by the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. But low interest rates are proving to be a challenge for investors, even ones who have long-term, multi-generational views on investments such as Canada’s massive pension fund. 

While the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board’s (CPPIB) long-term game plan hasn’t changed much in light of the virus outbreak, the one thing that’s challenging the fund is the zero-bound, according to Mark Machin, president and CEO. 

“The fact interest rates are now zero-bound – does that change the diversification benefit of bonds in the long term? I think we, like a lot of long-term asset owners, are looking at reviewing that,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Wednesday. Machin is an attendee of the Singapore Summit, which is being held virtually this year. 

Zero-bound refers to an expansionary monetary policy tool used by central banks to lower short-term interest rates to zero to stimulate the economy by reducing the cost of borrowing. But for bond investors that would mean they may receive less than their initial investment at maturity despite paying a large premium as bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.  

For example, a week and a half after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate to near zero in March, yields on both the 1-month and 3-month Treasury bills dipped below zero.

“We have a lot of other fixed income alternative in our portfolio so we have things like infrastructure, power renewables, we have credit exposure, we have hedge fund exposure — we have a lot of other things in that space but that holding government bonds in large size is something that we will continue to examine, whether that’s the right thing to do at the zero-bound,” Machin added. 

CPPIB manages about 434.4 billion Canadian dollars ($329.75 billion) as of June 30 and a bulk of its investments are in North America — around 34% of total assets are allocated in the United States — followed by Asia. 

The fund is heavily invested in both the technology and health-care sectors and continues to invest, according to Machin. Companies in both industries have benefited from a change of consumption and corporate habits due to the pandemic. 

“Digitization is a massive theme across the world, it is being talked about — it’s probably a five to 10 year acceleration across many sectors,” he said. He pointed out how online education has taken off in Asia due to more specialized companies dealing with the changing trends and predicted that adoption would pick up over time in Europe and the U.S. 

Sustainable investing

CPPIB on its website says it factors in environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks and opportunities into its investment analysis and actively engages with companies to promote “improved management of ESG.” 

“We think no company can survive and thrive in the long term if they are not considering their impact on the environment, if they are not considering their impact on the communities they are in, if they are not considering the quality of the governance that they are running their companies with,” Machin said.

So, CPPIB is joining HOOPP and others rethinking the diversification of bonds in a zero-bound world. 

Recall, last week, I spoke with HOOPP's CEO, Jeff Wendling, on its LDI strategy 2.0 amid low interest rates. You can read that comment here

Jeff reiterated what his predecessor told me, namely, HOOPP will never invest in negative-yielding instruments so they're looking at slowly ramping up a few things:

  • Infrastructure: HOOPP has been late to embrace infrastructure because they thought the asset class was overvalued for many years. Jeff told me only 25% of their assets are in private markets, "much lower than our peers" (they are closer to 50%). But with bond yields continuing to go lower, they decided to start investing in infrastructure. "We set up a team, we committed $1 billion in two infrastructure funds and will co-invest alongside them in bigger deals but it's still early, so we haven't deployed a lot of that billion dollars yet."
  •  Insurance-linked securities: In addition to infrastructure, it launched an insurance-linked securities (ILS) program. I'm not an expert on this but read a great comment on it from Marsh here. Basically, "ILS is another form of reinsurance available to insurance entities. However, instead of facing a rated balance sheet, the insurance entity faces a fully secure, collateralized form of funding dedicated to a precise risk requiring coverage. Usually the collateral takes the form of highly-rated, highly-liquid investments, such as government gilt funds or pure money market funds. Premium flows are determined by the type of risk and investor appetite."
  • Allocating more to external absolute return managers: HOOPP has prided itself over the years for delivering great risk-adjusted returns in a very cost effective way. They do a lot of absolute return strategies internally but as the size of the Fund approaches $100 billion (they're at $99 billion now), they need to find scalable alpha strategies they can't replicate internally to help them continue delivering great risk-adjusted returns. Jeff confirmed to me they are using Innocap's managed account platform (the same one OTPP and CPP Investments use for their external hedge fund managers) to onboard new hedge fund managers but they are proceeding very selectively and cautiously. I told him I used to allocate to external hedge funds and warned him: "When things go well, it runs like a car in cruise control, but when things start to falter, get ready to hear all sorts of lame excuses as to why they're not performing. Proceed with great caution." He agreed and told me they have smart people internally working on finding good managers offering unique alpha they cannot replicate internally.
  • Taking more concentrated positions in higher yielding equities and bonds: This was an interesting topic, Jeff told me back in March/ April, they moved quickly to buy more Canadian banks at low prices because they were "yielding 7%" and they also gorged on provincial bonds when "spreads widened". He said they're looking to be more opportunistic and more concentrated in public equities. "Traditionally, we invested synthetically in the S&P 500 and the S&P/TSX but we will be adding to our holdings of high yielding securities when opportunities arise. That's what we did with Canadian banks and provincial bonds." 
Now, unlike HOOPP which is a pension plan with huge bond portfolio (50%) which served it well as it implemented an LDI approach over the last 20 years, matching assets with liabilities, CPP Investments is a massive pension fund which actually has a small amount invested in government bonds.

As shown below, as at March 31, 2020, CPP Investments had 5.2% of its total portfolio invested in government bonds:

Still, 5% of a $435 billion dollar portfolio represents more than $20 billion and they need to figure out what to do with that money if yields remain zero-bound or go negative.

Luckily, the Fund is mature and has developed expertise in all public and private assets, so they can figure what it needs to be done with their bonds if rates continue going lower.

In the article, CPP Investments' CEO Mark Machin states: 

“We have a lot of other fixed income alternative in our portfolio so we have things like infrastructure, power renewables, we have credit exposure, we have hedge fund exposure — we have a lot of other things in that space but that holding government bonds in large size is something that we will continue to examine, whether that’s the right thing to do at the zero-bound.”

While not a perfect substitute, infrastructure and real estate investments offer yields in between stocks and bonds, but with higher risk. The same goes for private debt, power renewables or hedge funds.

By the way, in my last comment covering Ray Dalio's shocking latest warning, some people interpreted my criticism on some points Ray made on capitalism as me recommending to redeem from Bridgewater's Pure Alpha II Fund.

I made no such recommendation and to be brutally honest, if I was a large investor in Dalio's fund now like CPP Investments and other large Canadian pensions, I'd use this opportunity to deploy more capital with his firm.

When I first invested in Dalio's hedge fund back in 2002, they had just come off a bad year, I spent time on-site talking to their managers to understand what went wrong.

One thing about Bridgewater, they know exactly why they lose money and can adapt quickly to any market.

All this to say, no, I never recommended redeeming from Bridgewater's Pure Alpha II and people who don't read my comments carefully and make these assertions are totally wrong and quite foolish.

I might disagree with Ray on capitalism, US debt, the greenback and China, but that has nothing to do with my call on his flagship fund.

One thing I did post in my last comment was this:

[...] Jeroen Blokland recently posted this on LinkedIn, on how the traditional 60/40 portfolio won't work as well buffering during downturns because bond yields are at ultra-low levels:


I replied:
"Central banks have been systematically screwing pensioners by forcing everyone to take on more risk in search of yield. The result of all this financial repression will be catastrophic for those who don’t have access to a gold-plated defined benefit plan, which is the majority of the global population." 

I stand by those comments, we are entering a period where private and public pensions are at risk, as are the trillions in private savings in 401(k) plans.

When Mark Machin says the diversification of bonds won't be there in an ultra-low-rate environment, it's not that bonds offer no diversification, it's that ultra-low rates will make them more volatile than ever before, and that's not the type of volatility CPP Investments or any pension fund wants to experience. 

There are better alternatives over the long run, that's all. 

And CPP Investments'new CIO, Ed Cass, and the senior managers there are more than capable of finding suitable alternatives.

Canada pension plan's fossil-fuel investments raise climate risks, study says:

Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB), which manages the pensions of 20 million Canadians, is investing billions of dollars in fossil fuel companies, exposing it to significant climate-related risks, research by two universities said on Thursday.

The study was done by Canada Climate Law Initiative (CCLI), a project of the University of British Columbia and Toronto’s York University.

The research acknowledged the progress made by Canada’s biggest pension fund, including the doubling of its renewable energy holdings, but found the board’s continued fossil fuel investments revealed a “troubling incrementalism.”

Six of CPPIB’s 15 private transactions in the past six years were in fossil fuels, and an earlier analysis found the fund has invested in 79 of the world’s top 200 public oil, gas and coal companies.

The energy sector has “the strongest of motives to adapt, have the access to capital to do so and the technology know-how to innovate,” CPPIB spokesman Michel Leduc said. “The idea, through divestment, of starving them of capital, would... likely be harmful or counterproductive.”

The report says globally, climate risk is recognized as a material enterprise risk, impacting supply chains, future cash flows and disrupting business models across industries. CPPIB’s public and private investments raise questions about its ability to cope with sudden or unexpected changes in consumer and investor preferences or in government policy.

CCLI called for the fund, which had C$434 billion in funds under management as of end June, to set “transparent and aggressive” targets for a carbon-neutral portfolio.

Fossil fuel producers and services made up 2.8% of CPPIB’s investments as of March 31, from 4.6% two years earlier. CPPIB CEO Mark Machin told Reuters in May the fund is comfortable with its energy exposure.

I'll try to keep my cool and remain respectful to the Canada Climate Law Initiative (CCLI) and all the tree-hugging granolas who are highly critical of CPP Investments' fossil fuel investments.

These people simply don't know what they're talking about, they are dangerous critics who think the answer for all pensions is to divest from fossil fuel industry altogether.

I can't stand this Al Gore holier-than- thou sanctimonious nonsense! And this is me talking, not CPP Investments!!

I suggest all these environmental zealots stay out of pension investments, period.

Alright, let me regain my composure.

CPP Investments does take ESG investing seriously but that definitely doesn't mean divesting from oil & gas. To do so would be to contravene their fiduciary responsibility which is to maximize returns without taking undue risks.

I suggest all these environmental groups read my recent comments on the rise of constructive capital and Big Oil for the long run.  

If you ask me, at just less than 3% of its total portfolio, I'd say CPP Investments is under-invested in fossil fuel producers. If it were up to me, I'd get out of bonds and invest that 5% in companies like Enbridge, Exxon and Chevron, all of which pay a great dividend yield.

I'd better stop there before I receive nasty emails from environmentalists who think they know more about pension investments than me or the folks at CPP Investments.

What these people need to realize is all of Canada's large pensions take climate risk seriously but they also have a fiduciary responsibility to their members and are better off engaging the fossil fuel industry rather than divesting from it.

On that note, Marie-Josée Privyk, Head of ESG and Customer Innovation at Novisto, posted this article on ESG 2.0 on LinkedIn and I liked what she stated: 

"ESG integration has never claimed to be seeking impact - it is seeking better risk-adjusted returns from a more fulsome and granular analysis of all the fundamental factors that contribute to a company’s long-term success, including those that fall in the environmental, social, and governance categories. It does support the notion that companies that manage their material risks and opportunities well make better companies."

Lastly, CPP Investments' former CEO, Mark Wiseman, has been discussing Canadian public policy recently and you should definitely read his comments:

Mark is a smart guy, maybe he should run for office one office one day.

What else? It looks like Alberta is getting cold feet on APP and my prediction is it won't opt out f the CPP (it would be a very dumb and costly mistake):

Finally, this October, CPP Investments is holding virtual public meetings to provide an update on the CPP Fund’s performance and answer questions. Register for your region’s meeting here. Below,the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board is currently reviewing its bond holdings in light of central banks slashing interest rates to nearly zero to cope with the coronavirus fallout, says Mark Machin, president and CEO.

Should We Create Another Caisse?

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Miville Tremblay, senior fellow at the C. D. Howe Institute, wrote an op-ed for La Presse advocating for a second Caisse de dépôt (translated from French):

Quebecers have reason to be proud of their Caisse de dépôt et placement, which efficiently manages the assets of their pension plan and those of the pension funds of almost all public sector employees. Unfortunately, municipal and university employees are not so fortunate.

I know a lot of city and university pension plan managers and I know they are dedicated and competent people. However, because their funds are smaller, they do not have access to the same resources, the same investment opportunities and must bear higher costs, which penalize their members as well as their employers and, ultimately, taxpayers.

The Caisse de dépôt and Teachers’, the pension plan for Ontario's teachers, pioneered the Canadian model of pension fund management, a success envied around the world. Montreal is home to a second institution of its kind, PSP Investments, which manages the fund for federal civil servants. It is time to create a third one for employees of Quebec municipalities and universities.

The Canadian model boils down to a few characteristics: large size, which generates economies of scale; a high proportion of funds managed in-house, rather than entrusted to private firms, which reduces costs; a significant proportion of investments in so-called real assets, such as real estate and infrastructure; an elaborate risk management system; competitive compensation with the private sector to attract the best managers; and rigorous governance ensuring the long-term interests of beneficiaries and independence of decisions from political pressures.

A quantitative study has just demonstrated the undeniable superiority of this formula by comparing the costs and performance of Canadian funds with American and European ones.

The authors are Sebastien Betermier, professor at McGill, Alexander Beath, Chris Flynn and Quentin Spehner, analysts at CEM Benchmarking, a Toronto-based firm that compiles an international database on pension funds.*

The large Canadian funds (US $ 10 billion and more) manage just over half of their assets internally, while their peers elsewhere in the world, it is just under a quarter. The very large Canadian funds ($50 billion and more) manage 80% of their assets themselves, against 34% for their foreign counterparts.

The savings thus made allow Canadian pensions to allocate significantly more resources to their teams, analysts, information technology and risk management. They can afford the best specialists.

The authors find that this translates into somewhat lower costs first. Large Canadian funds average 57 cents per $ 100 in assets, compared to 62 cents for foreigners.

A Superior Performance

Pension funds take varying levels of risk. We must therefore compare their returns per unit of risk with the Sharpe ratio. With an average of 0.93, the large Canadian funds dominate the rankings and beat the American public funds, which post a disastrous 0.48. Large US corporations do little better at 0.55.

But the revelation of this research is the superior performance of Canadian funds when taking into account the nature of their financial liabilities to retirees, who in the public sector often enjoy some protection against inflation.

This success is largely due to the three times the weight of their investments in real estate and infrastructure, which although expensive to manage, in the long run are more protective against the ravages of inflation.

For example, we can bet that the performance of the Caisse in the REM will follow the cost of living with normal price increases. The large Canadian pensions have experienced teams who develop large-scale real estate projects, whose rents tend to keep pace with inflation.

Even the largest municipal and university funds, with assets ranging between $ 1 billion and $ 5 billion, do not have this capacity. They have to settle for a watered-down version of the Canadian model, which still does better than petty cash elsewhere in the world.

But if we entrusted the management of the funds of some 200 municipal plans and those of Quebec universities to a new common fund, this one, with assets exceeding $50 billion, could play in the big leagues. The pension plans and committees would remain separate, with investment policies adjusted to their needs.

To date, Quebec has entrusted everything to the Caisse de dépôt et placement. Instead, Ontario has relied on several large institutions, even if they are smaller than the colossi of Caisse de dépôt and CPP Investments, which administers the funds of the Canada Pension Plan.

Granting an additional $50 billion to the Caisse de dépôt, which already has $340 billion, would give it no additional advantage. It would also be prudent not to put all of our eggs in one basket. Creating a new flagship institution would be preferable for Quebec and the employees of cities and universities. The idea deserves careful consideration.

Alright, it's Wednesday, another crazy day in markets but let me put my pension hat on to tackle Miville Tremblay's opinion piece.

First, full disclosure, the first time I worked at the Caisse on contract for a year was back in 1999 (later full-time in 2002). I worked in a small intelligence team headed by Ginette Hains and we gathered the best research from brokers and independent shops and presented their ideas to the Caisse's senior VPs every quarter and our write-ups more often. 

Fun job, got to read a lot of market research and coming from BCA Research prior to that, I learned a lot about the stock and bond markets. Back then, the focus was a lot more on stocks and Nortel (the Caisse got its head handed to it on Nortel as did others but that had nothing to do with our team).

We also organized to bring guest speakers to speak at offsite strategy sessions for the senior VPs. I discovered Jim Bianco's research back then and brought him in to speak at one of those strategy sessions and he blew the socks off the senior VPs and the then president and vice-president of the Caisse (Jean-Paul Scraire and Michel Nadeau). 

Like I said, those were fun times but I was still a novice learning the ropes (was far less jaded).

Anyway, Miville was part of my team, he worked for a few years at the Caisse, got a CFA at a late age which is impressive, and then he went on to work for the Bank of Canada at its Montreal office where he covered Canadian pensions (nice gig, especially for a French Quebecer like Miville).

He obviously knows Canadian pensions very well which is why C.D. Howe asked him to join as a senior fellow.

But as much as I respect his credentials and experience, I totally disagree with him on what he's advocating and will explain why:

  • First, Caisse de dépôt et placement du Quebec (CDPQ) is now a global powerhouse, at the same level or very close to CPP Investments. This is not the CDPQ of 1999-2000 when Scraire, Nadeau and his boys ruled the day and played fast and loose on governance and oversight or even 2008 when Henri-Paul Rousseau ruled the day was completely unaware of the excessive risks being taken in the ABCP portfolio (or was aware and turned a blind eye). Importantly, CDPQ was transformed during the Michael Sabia era, the initial focus was to clean up house, set tight governance and oversight and while Sabia was far from perfect, he did leave solid foundations for his successor, Charles Emond.
  • Why is this history important? Because I trust the CDPQ's governance and oversight over that of any or all Quebec municipal or university plans. I'm not saying there aren't good people working at these plans, but there is a lot more potential for fraud and lack of oversight there and a lot less transparency (obviously, many good plans too but lots of shady ones too).
  • Second, and equally important, why do we need to create a new pension plan when we already have one of the best large public pensions and it is run very efficiently? Just from a cost advantage, Quebec's taxpayers are better off having this $50 billion managed at the Caisse, but when you add long-term performance, it's there where the real cost advantage comes into play. Importantly, CDPQ has major investments in public and private markets all over the world, invests in the best private equity funds and hedge funds, does a lot of of sophisticated strategies internally, and this gives it a comparative advantage over smaller plans. It wouldn't be impossible for a new pension to compete but it would be very hard. Just look at my recent comment on CDPQ and  DP World expanding their port platform. Which $50 billion pension is going to compete with that? Good luck!
  • In short, CDPQ and CPP Investments have structural and developed advantages that are simply too hard to replicate at smaller funds. Yes, it's true, HOOPP and OTPP managed very well at $50 billion but they attracted the right people to do sophisticated things internally, not sure we want to waste time and taxpayers' money after the pandemic to start a new Quebec pension fund. The ramp-up takes time and you need a lot to think about. Just look at my recent conversation with Barbara Zvan who is heading up UPP, it will take her a year before operations commence and they have been thinking about this new pan for years (and  she can attract top talent there because it's based in Toronto, the epicenter of top pensions). If anything, maybe UPP should also manage the assets of all Quebec and rest of Canada university pensions, that would also make sense to me.
  • If we are to create a new public pension in Quebec and Canada, it's my recommendation to create a second CPP Investments of sorts which focuses solely on amalgamating and managing badly managed corporate DB pensions in this country, backed by the full faith and credit of the Canadian government but with a shared risk model (jointly sponsored plan).
  • But another CDPQ? Non merci, Miville, that doesn't interest me and reading your comment, I think you make more of a case for having the assets managed by CDPQ.

Now, I shared Miville's article on Twitter and Ludovic Dumas, VP Direct Investments at Claridge, shared his thoughts:

He basically thinks the idea merits some exploration to avoid too much concentration at the Caise and introduce more competition into the ecosystem.

Again, I'm not convinced and that argument doesn't address my governance and oversight concerns, or the other arguments I've laid out above. 

We don't need new pensions to compete with the Caisse, that's neither necessary nor in our best interests. And again, it's not that easy competing with the Caisse or CPP Investments in 2020, many other smaller pensions investing largely in public markets in a zero-bound world will underperform over the next 20 years (see me last comment on why CPP Investments is reviewing its bond portfolio). 

Now, it's not all peachy and there are things we need to keep in mind if the Caisse gets this $50 billion in assets to manage:

  • CDPQ has a dual mandate to maximize returns without taking undue risks and to promote Quebec's economy. Sometimes that dual mandate is good (Lightspeed, Nuvei) and sometimes it's bad (SNC-Lavalin and Bombardier). When the Caisse is managing your pension assets, you have to accept there will be some hiccups along the way because this dual mandate can expose it to making some risky investments locally (but they manage all risks very diligently).
  • Getting rid of a lot of smaller Quebec pension plans means a lot of high and medium paying jobs will be wiped, including consultants, and that represents a loss of income taxes for the Quebec government. In some cases, it makes sense, in others, it might not because the pensions are being properly managed. There is a lot to think about here and it's not that obvious.

Having said all this, I'm convinced we are heading into a very tough, turbulent period for all investors and many smaller pensions will really struggle to survive and won't be able to fulfill their mandate.

I hope I presented the arguments for and against a second Caisse very clearly but feel free to email me your opinions at LKolivakis@gmail.com.

A few more newsworthy items on CDPQ and on this first one, also read this article on Wes Hall, a man on a mission:

Like I said, it's really hard to compete against CDPQ and other large Candian pensions.

Below, Nuvei Corporation (TSX: NVEI) recently started trading its shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange. 

The payment processing company raised $700 million in the biggest initial public offering of a technology company in the history of the TSX. 

Nuvei provides payment solutions to merchants, technology, and distribution partners, serving companies in North America, Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin America. Nuvei counts over 780 employees and services more than 50,000 customers around the world. The company supports a vast number of local and alternative payment methods in nearly 150 currencies and is backed by Novacap and Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ). There were 211 technology companies listed on both TSX and TSX Venture Exchange as of August 31, 2020, with a combined market capitalization of $289 billion (CAD). 

Watch the clip where Loui Anastasopoulos, President, Capital Formation, Toronto Stock Exchange and TSX Venture Exchange joined Philip Fayer, Chairman and CEO, Nuvei Corporation and his team to open the market to celebrate the company’s listing on Toronto Stock Exchange.

Real Estate's Looming Liquidity Crunch?

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Siobhan Riding of the Financial Times reports property funds stay shut amid fears of liquidity crunch:

Large UK property funds are keeping trading suspensions in place because of fears that low cash buffers and regulatory uncertainty could trigger an investor run. 

All of the UK’s major commercial property funds suspended trading in March, trapping close to £22bn of investor money, after the coronavirus-induced halt in economic activity made it difficult to value real estate. 

Yet while three investment managers — St James’s Place, Columbia Threadneedle and most recently L&G — have announced they will reopen their property funds, most others remain suspended as groups weigh whether they will be able to cope with redemption requests on reopening. 

A chief concern is that UK regulatory proposals, which are designed to prevent fund liquidity mismatches by introducing longer redemption notice periods, could have the opposite effect by encouraging investors to withdraw en masse before the rules come into force. 

This risk, which could ultimately lead funds to suspend again, is compounded by the low cash balances of some property funds. Aegon Asset Management’s fund holds cash equivalent to 7.3 per cent of its portfolio, while M&G’s holds 8.2 per cent. This compares to 24.4 per cent and 18.5 per cent held by L&G and Columbia Threadneedle’s funds respectively. 

“Property managers will be fearful that just when they are ready to reopen they lurch straight into another crisis brought about by the potential rule change,” said Ryan Hughes, head of active portfolios at AJ Bell. He warned an investor exodus could lead to a “liquidity death spiral” as managers try to sell assets in an uncertain market. 

One property fund manager who asked not to be named said: “The FCA proposals seriously bring into doubt whether people will want to remain invested.” Resolving outstanding questions surrounding the rules was “vital to the ongoing health of property funds”, the manager added. 

John Forbes, an adviser to property fund managers, said that one of the main issues was whether property funds would continue to be eligible to be held through Individual Savings Accounts (ISAs) or Self-invested Personal Pensions (SIPPs) tax wrappers following the reforms. 

The FCA acknowledged this was an issue in its August consultation paper but is yet to propose a solution. The regulator told the Financial Times: “We appreciate that ISA eligibility is an important consideration for retail investors, and will take this into account in our final decisions.”

But Mr Forbes said the FCA’s statement did not go far enough. He urged the regulator to “make it clear that there will be no instant implementation of new rules” and that it intended to find solutions to the current sticking points before going ahead. 

Aegon portfolio manager Richard Peacock said uncertainty around the reforms, combined with other redemption risk issues, were factors affecting whether his fund would reopen. “For this reason we are engaging with all our investors to discuss the outlook and their intentions,” he said. 

Canada Life said it expected its fund to be reopened after its month-end valuation date. Standard Life Aberdeen and BMO said they would continue their suspensions and reconsider at month end. Janus Henderson, M&G and Aviva Investors said they would focus on raising liquidity to meet potential outflows. 

The FCA said it expected managers to conduct “as much due diligence as possible” to ensure they have enough cash to fulfill redemptions on reopening

I was wondering how long before I'd start reading articles like this about the looming liquidity crunch in publicly traded commercial real estate funds.

The article focuses on UK property funds and how onerous regulations are adding to uncertainty but I can assure you, all publicly traded REITs (listed funds) all over the world are worried about a similar outcome hitting their fund.

And the evidence is piling up.

Nathalie Wong of Bloomberg News reports Brookfield Properties will cut 20% of employees in retail unit:

Brookfield Property Partners LP, a large owner of malls in the U.S., is cutting its workforce as the pandemic batters the retail industry.

The job cuts will hit approximately 20 per cent of the employees in the real estate company’s retail arm, according to a memo to staff on Monday. The unit has more than than 2,000 workers, according to a spokeswoman, who declined to comment beyond the memo.

Brookfield bet big on retail in the U.S. with its purchase of mall owner GGP Inc. for about US$15 billion in 2018. Since then, pressure has been mounting across the industry, with the pandemic pushing even more customers to embrace the convenience of e-commerce.

The firm’s shares have dropped about 40 per cent this year. In May, Brookfield Asset Management Inc., the parent company of Brookfield Property Partners, announced a plan to invest US$5 billion to take minority stakes in retailers that have been hit hard by the pandemic.

The job cuts were reported earlier by CNBC.

Brookfield Property shares (BPY) are down 40% this year but they were down considerably more in March:

They rallied today, gaining 2.7% but it remains to be seen if they will continue paying that big fat dividend of 12.4% (unlikely but they are cash rich and can borrow for nothing to keep paying it out, and besides, even if they cut it in half, it's still a nice divvy!).

It doesn't surprise me that retail real estate operations at Brookfield or anywhere else are struggling.

It's offices that concern me right now as most institutional portfolios are more exposed to office and multi-family real estate. 

On that topic, Brookfield Insights put out some interesting research stating the future of the office isn't what you think. 

You can view it here and download the PDF file here.

Note the following in their short-term outlook:

Throughout the pandemic, Brookfield’s commercial properties, including offices, have remained largely open to enable tenants to maintain critical infrastructure and operations. Our primary focus is currently on helping our tenants implement back-to-operations best practices—and on communicating the steps we are taking to make our office properties safe for workers to return.  

As part of this process, we have considered the potential short-term effects of the crisis on the office sector, surveying our tenants and seeing the implications play out firsthand. What we’ve found suggests that the sector impact in the near term will be limited.

Lease payments throughout the pandemic have been stable for high-quality office properties—in fact, our collections through June remained largely unaffected. Moreover, since office leases are long-term in nature (10 years or more), we believe the sector should be well protected against any short-term market downturn or negative sentiment that might arise over the next 12 to 18 months.

When it comes to working from home, we have seen employers take different approaches throughout this period. Some highly visible tech companies have announced that their employees will continue to work remotely for an extended, or even indefinite, period. However, we remain skeptical that a significant number of tenants will end up with a truly remote workforce for any longer than they need to under their regions’ reopening plans. Indeed, after having announced that up to half of its employees would work from home within the next 10 years, Facebook recently signed a lease for 730,000 square feet in Manhattan’s West Side—in addition to another lease it signed late last year for 1.5 million square feet just a few blocks away.1

The decisions by certain companies to keep their employees at home for the foreseeable future do not necessarily reflect long-term strategic shifts. In many cases, these companies cannot fit more than 50% of their workforce in the office while maintaining social distancing, and many government guidelines and plans have been in flux with uncertain timelines. Finally, it’s worth pointing out that some tech companies are in the business of selling cloud services, online goods and apps, and therefore are in no rush to encourage their people to come back.

In the meantime, many of our own tenants are actively engaged in developing and executing return-to-office plans, the pace of which varies across regions. In many Asian countries, including China and South Korea, we have seen much of the workforce return to the office.  

When employees return to the office, they will find that their environment has undergone significant changes. These may include heightened cleaning procedures in line with revised health guidelines, policies to ensure that sick employees do not come to the office, company-provided personal protective equipment and social distancing requirements. Employees may also notice new office layouts and upgraded features, such as spaced-out workstations with transparent barriers, no-touch elevator systems and new air filtration systems to circulate cleaner air. In fact, at Brookfield, we are piloting advanced air ventilation and filtration systems in our New York, Toronto and Calgary offices, with an eye toward utilizing this technology in all our leased office properties.

And this in their long-term outlook

Certainly, potential shifts in office demand will hinge on broader factors. Governments need to balance safety concerns with reopening goals, which will play a major role in determining corporate plans. The development of an effective vaccine or treatment for COVID-19 will, when it comes, also clearly be a game-changer in the evolution of the pandemic and its effects on employment.

Regardless, based on our investment experience across real estate markets, we already see some trends emerging over the longer term:

Working from home will ultimately become a supplement to, rather than a substitute for, the office. While remote work can provide flexibility for employees, office work allows for collaboration, connection and culture—essential ingredients for enterprise growth, risk management and control, and employee development. According to a recent report by the FICC Markets Standards Board, widely distributed remote workforces pose over 40 specific risks to companies, including those related to cybersecurity, confidentiality, execution, staff treatment and productivity.2

In-person interaction is particularly important when onboarding and mentoring younger employees—which, of course, are key to a company’s long-term growth. Our tenants tell us that these processes cannot be replicated and maintained through video conferencing over the long term.

It appears the tide may already be turning on the idea that working from home will last forever. According to The Wall Street Journal, more companies are now saying that they don’t see working from home as a long-term solution.3 Barclays CEO Jes Staley recently commented on the importance of having workers in the office over the long term: “We want our people back together, to make sure we ensure the evolution of our culture and our controls, and I think that will happen over time."4 Indeed, most of our tenants tell us they are excited to get employees back in the office and interacting. A recent survey of over 2,300 workers in the U.S. shows that many employees feel the same way.

Very interesting research and again take the time to view it all here and download the PDF file here.

I must admit, when I first read this, I thought "there goes Brookfield, talking up its real estate book again". 

But then I thought this is Brookfield, one of the best alternatives funds in the world, so take the time to read it carefully a few times.

I will admit, however, I remain unconvinced and still feel strongly there is a paradigm shift going on in real estate led by premiere tech firms dead set on cutting their carbon footprint over the next decade.

Moreover, if class B buildings are losing tenants, you can bet it's going to impact class A buildings too.

Anyway, I shared Brookfield's research with an astute blog reader of mine in Vancouver who shared these thoughts:

Seems to me this is the key statement: "Working from home will ultimately become a supplement to, rather than a substitute for, the office." 

It always was a supplement to the office. I think all reasonable people can agree that it will be more of a supplement than it was in the past, but also that it will remain a supplement to the office. The question that no one can answer now is how much of a supplement? Brookfield's arrogance in purporting to be able to accurately answer that question derives from its desire to talk its book. 

But to my mind the big issue that is not being discussed is the extent to which white collar jobs will be outsourced to low cost jurisdictions. If executives can WFH, they can work from home in India. The WFH crowd may regret what they wished for. While the low end of the income spectrum has suffered the most to date, I wonder whether the shoe is about to drop on the higher income workers. If it is, demand for office space in some areas might suffer just as it benefits other places. 

Complex adaptive systems are hard to predict. 

He's absolutely right, working from home sounds great until you sit down and really think about what it means for a lot of high-paying tech and finance jobs that can easily be outsourced to India, China and elsewhere.

In fact, some big tech companies are already cutting salaries of employees working from home:

And then there are bigger issues in the US labor market that will likely impact real estate for a long time:

I'm not trying to sound bearish on real estate, just realistic, I think it's really important that institutional investors stop only viewing the glass half full and start preparing for what can be a long tough slug in real estate ahead. 

This is what sovereign wealth funds are doing and I suspect others as well.

And the pandemic might also impact mutli-family properties as rents take a beating in major cities as everyone rushes out to the suburbs to buy single-family homes.

Mark Obrai, Director of Investment Solutions at CIBC Asset Management, posted this chart on LinkIn earlier today showing the flood of new condo rentals in Toronto:


I added my two cents:

"Canadians are short condos/ long single-family homes. The pandemic has killed Airbnb market and a lot of condo speculators in Toronto and Vancouver are getting wiped which is why condo prices are declining in these markets. It also doesn’t help that international students aren’t coming to Canada and immigration is down. The pandemic has increased demand for single-family homes but there’s a big problem brewing. As the Bank of Canada slashed rates to zero, and stated they will keep them there for years, more Canadians are taking on record amount of mortgage debt through banks and increasingly through subprime mortgage lenders because big banks are clamping down. What happens when CERB and extended unemployment insurance ends and permanent unemployment spikes? If housing market gets hit hard, a lot of households putting everything they make into their homes will be sitting on negative equity as their payments are only covering interest payments. And God forbid rates rise along with unemployment, then the great Canadian housing bubble is really toast!"

I don't know, Canada's fragile housing market makes me really nervous, too many young households buying houses (and cars) they can't afford, all on credit, it's a disaster waiting to happen (yes, I know, the Bank of Canada will follow the Fed and keep rates at zero for years, cough, cough!).

Interestingly, the head of the CMHC seems to be on the same page as me:

By the way, the same thing is happening down south where Americans are fleeing to suburbs, pouncing on record low mortgage rates:

I guess the one good thing about multi-family is people need somewhere to live and if they can't afford to buy, they will rent.

Lastly, if you need more evidence that a liquidity crunch will hit segments of the real estate market, check out the leader, Blackstone, which just raised the biggest real estate distressed debt fund ever, an $8 billion fund ready to lend to distressed real estate operators.

There's a reason why Blackstone raised a record amount to lend to distressed real estate operators, it's because they see the writing on the wall and there are a ton of opportunities out there:

Keep all this in mind the next time someone tells you all is well in real estate, the pandemic was just a hiccup and longer term there won't be any meaningful residual effects.

Always exercise humility when analyzing public and private markets, we simply don't know what the future holds.

Yes, in a zero-bound world, real estate and infrastructure look like a much better alternative to long bonds, but you'd better pick your spots carefully and make sure you add value over the long run.

Below, in a recent episode of "Talks At GS Presents: Insights From Great Investors," Blackstone President and COO Jon Gray discusses the historic dislocation in markets brought on by the pandemic, the themes driving Blackstone’s investment strategy moving forward, and the importance of “high conviction” in his approach to investing.

Listen carefully to Jon Gray, he's one of the best real estate investors of our time (he used to run Blackstone's real estate before being promoted to President and COO).

In another recent episode of "Talks At GS Presents: Insights From Great Investors," TPG co-CEO Jim Coulter talks about investment trends accelerated by the pandemic and why he thinks a good investment strategy is “not consensus.” 

Both these episodes are packed with great insights from two of the world's best investors (one in real estate and one in private equity) and I suggest you listen to them very carefully, but with a critical ear.

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