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Prepare for Rough Markets Ahead?

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Fred Imbert and Jesse Pound of CNBC report the Dow rallies more than 300 points on Friday as tech shares bounce, cutting losses for the week

U.S. stocks rose on Friday, recovering some of their losses for the week, as tech shares clawed back some of their big September declines. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 358.52 points higher, or 1.3%, at 27,173.96. The S&P 500 climbed 1.6% to 3,298.46. The Nasdaq Composite popped 2.6% to 10,913.56. It was the best day for the major averages since Sept. 9.

Shares of Amazon rose 2.5% and Facebook gained 2.1%. Apple advanced 3.8% and Microsoft climbed 2.3%. Netflix closed 2.1% higher. The S&P 500 tech sector jumped 2.4% and for its best day since Sept. 9, when it popped 3.4%.

Cruise operators also contributed to Friday’s gains. Carnival, Norwegian Cruise Line and Royal Caribbean were up 9.7%, 13.7% and 7.7%, respectively, after an upgrade from a Barclays analyst

The “sell-off has stabilized a bit over the last few days, but there are still no real signs of strength,” said Mark Newton, managing member at Newton Advisors, in a note. “Thus, the trend remains bearish and not much to bet on a rebound.”

Both the Dow and S&P 500 posted four-week losing streaks, their longest slides since August 2019, despite Friday’s rally. The Dow lost 1.8% this week and the S&P 500 closed 0.6% lower week to date. The Nasdaq Composite had its first weekly gain in four weeks, rising 1.1% over that time period. 

That mixed weekly performance followed concerns around the state of the U.S. economic recovery as well as uncertainty around a new fiscal stimulus bill. 

House Democrats are preparing a $2.4 trillion relief package that they could vote on as soon as next weeka source familiar with the plans told CNBC. The bill would include enhanced unemployment benefits and aid to airlines, but the overall price tag remains well above what Republican leaders have said they are willing to spend. 

The major averages have had a tough month, with the S&P 500 falling 5.8% in September. The Dow has dropped 4.4% over that time period and the Nasdaq is down 7.3% month to date. 

Much of September’s losses have been concentrated in mega-cap tech stocks, which carry a heavy weight in the indexes. Shares of Apple — the largest publicly traded company in the U.S. by market cap — have dropped 13% this month. Microsoft, Alphabet, Netflix, Amazon and Facebook are all down at least 7.9% over that time period. 

“After a buoyant and hopeful summer, financial markets are cooling in the face of reality,” strategists at MRB Partners said in a note. “High-flying tech and tech-related stocks are in a full-blown correction, and weakness has recently spread to broader indexes, with a distinct smell of risk-off in the air. We had expected a gradual, albeit choppy, economic recovery, but it appears that some investors were not prepared for setbacks along the way.”

Russ Koesterich, managing director and portfolio manager at BlackRock, said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Thursday that his team took profits in some high-flying tech stocks at the end of August and then were buying more cyclical stocks during the recent drop for the market. 

“What we’ve been trying to do in recent weeks is take the cyclical exposure up a little bit ... it’s not that we think tech is going to roll over. We still like the themes. But on a shorter-term tactical basis, we’re comfortable with the economy, we think we’re going to continue to see improvement, and we’re looking for names that are levered to that improvement,” Koesterich said.

It's Friday, my time to leave pensions aside and analyze markets.

Stocks ended on a positive note, literally melting up Friday afternoon, led by tech shares.

But it was a choppy week with stocks getting slammed earlier this week.

For the week, here is the performance of major S&P market sectors: 

 

The first thing you will note is Energy (XLE) got slammed hard this week, down 8.6%.

Last week, I wrote a comment on Big Oil for the long run and told my readers while I like the prospects of giant oil companies over the long run, in the short run, we can get a final washout.

How low can these oil stocks go? That's anyone's guess but they're hitting multi-decade lows here:

What I think is happening is the quant/ momentum managers are still shorting the sector hard and the fundamental/ value managers are quietly accumulating them here.

The other issue I have is ESG funds buying mega-cap tech shares, contributing to the tech bubble, and ignoring any stock in the energy index.

When will this silliness stop? Again, your guess is as good as mine but it's clear energy shares (XLE) are under immense pressure and we can see a retest of March lows or worse:


That's why it's critically important to always be disciplined and never invest more than a certain percentage in any stock (say 5%), you just never know how low prices can go.

If I were to hazard a guess, I'd say there's a major carry trade that has been going on for a few years, Long Tech/ Short Energy and this is still the trade large leveraged funds are betting on.

Thing with carry trades is when they blow up, they blow up spectacularly, especially in a zero-bound world.

On technology, I remain bearish and looking at the Nasdaq 100-Index (NDX), I can see it's hovering right below its 50-day moving average:


When I step back and look at the 5-year weekly chart, I see the potential for a much more meaningful sell-off in tech shares:


Notice that on this weekly chart, I purposely chose the 10, 50 and 200-week moving average and for a reason.

When we had the huge liquidity melt-up since bottoming in March, the index never broke below its 10-week moving average. 

This week it did and it remains to be seen if this is a tiny blip or something more meaningful.

If tech stocks do start selling off again, I want to look at the 50-week and 200-week moving averages because if it goes below the 200-week, we're in a full blown bear market that can last years. 

That's the problem with this market, tech is so dominant, it literally brings the entire market up or down with it. 

And while everyone is fixated on Apple (APPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) which together make up 43% of the S&P tech Index (XLK), there are many other tech companies which are flying this year, like Square (SQ) and Crowdstrike (CRWD), just to name two.

Moreover, this week, cloud computing ETFs (WCLD and CLOU) took off led by companies like Zoom (ZM), Zscaler (ZS), Fastly (FSLY), Twilio (TWLO), Docusign (DOCU), and Shopify (SHOP). 

Many of these were among the best-performing large cap stocks this week:


Just have a look at Zoom (ZM) shares, after a big pullback, they're making new highs, in full beast parabolic mode:


I wouldn't touch this stuff  with a ten-foot pole but elite hedge funds front-running this market are trading them and making a killing. 

Speaking of elite hedge funds front-running the market, I saw this earlier today:

Here's what I wrote on LinkedIn:

"There’s a reason why Ken Griffin is the undisputed king of hedge funds. Not only is he smart as hell and hires top talent, he literally controls almost half of all retail trading, giving his firm unprecedented knowledge of total retail positioning. Doubt Ray Dalio will bring this up in his rants on capitalism."

Earlier his week, I took on Dalio and his thoughts on capitalism and basically called him out on a few things but most important, the Fed bailed him and other elite hedge fund managers out and he's incapable of admitting this.

Alright, what else? Here are some other interesting stories I read this week:

There definitely is no magic strategy to protect you from extreme volatility in these markets.

That's what happens when rates are at zero and the Fed and other central banks are manipulating markets.

The second wave of COVID is here, will it cause another bear market, that remains to be seen but I think that all market participants are realizing the initial "liquidity thrust" and fiscal stimulus is wearing off and reality is setting in. 

As for the next financial crisis, here's is what I shared on LinkedIn:

"Everyone is hailing policymakers for their quick and decisive response, both monetary and fiscal. Policymakers are trying to buy time hoping the economic recovery will gain momentum. Great if it works but it will still be the most anemic recovery ever. Worse still, what if it falters as the stimulus ends? Then you have to look at the weakest links and in my opinion, it’s in a few emerging markets. A massive EM crisis will send shock waves throughout the global financial system because it will be highly deflationary. "

Maybe that's why European bank shares hit an all-time low today, because they're heavily exposed to EM markets:

Don't worry, I'm sure the Fed and ECB are on it, increasing their already bloated balance sheets.

But my advice is prepare for rough markets ahead and manage your risk accordingly.

Below, stocks fell sharply on Monday as fears about the worsening coronavirus as well as uncertainty on further fiscal stimulus rattled traders. CNBC's "Halftime Report" team discussed how they're investing amid the trading session's market sell-off.

Also earlier this week, Morgan Stanley's Chief US Equity Strategist Mike Wilson joined CNBC's Halftime Report team to discuss markets and why he sees a further correction.

Late this afternoon, CNBC's Fast Money traders gave their final trades for the week. I agree with the guys who are short emerging markets (EEM) and long volatility (Jan calls on UVXY).

Lastly, Nassim Taleb, New York University distinguished professor of risk engineering, discusses what he sees as misconceptions about the coronavirus pandemic and comments on the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy. He speaks with Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker. Take the time to watch this. 

By the way, as far as tail risk and Universa, I wish they'd state their performance inception-to-date, not just when they're hitting grand slams.


OPTrust's CEO on Why Healthy Pensions Matter

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Peter Lindley, President and CEO of OPTrust, recently shared his insights on retirement security and why defined benefit pension plans are the best at providing it:

Every day, 1,000 people retire in Canada. As that number continues to grow, ensuring that Canadians can retire with security and stable incomes has never been more important. And that is the chief concern of Canada’s defined benefit pension plans. We are in the retirement security business, and we are best at providing it.

Those who can’t benefit from these pensions must trust the lion’s share of their retirement income to financial advisors. In recent weeks, there have been a number of opinion pieces published by financial advisors, all with a very specific perspective: they want to manage your money. Their business is related to ours – and yet, the differences are stark. Financial advisors must make profits for themselves and their employers while helping individuals maximize their savings.

Defined benefit pension plans are focused solely on earning enough money to pay pensions. There are no other factors. According to a 2018 study by the Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan, pension plan members can expect to generate retirement income at a cost of roughly one quarter of the typical individual method. Why? The advantages include internal investment management with no fees, economies of scale, and risk sharing for all.

With shared risk, plan members don’t have to navigate volatile markets on their own. They’re not concerned about whether markets are up or down when they want to retire, and the pension payments are guaranteed for life. As with managing a pandemic or any other challenge in life, we work better when we work together.

Financial advisors may tell you that with their advice, you will benefit from superior investment returns. This conveniently ignores the fact that your pension plan doesn’t charge fees for holding your money in trust, and it obscures the role of the plan – to pay you a reliable lifetime income once you retire.

If you are lucky enough to be a member of a pension plan, and you are tempted by an investment advisor to leave it because they can give you better returns, you will be taking a big gamble. You will be betting the advisor can produce returns big enough for both you and them. You will be betting that the market doesn’t crash after you take your money out of the pension plan. And you will be betting that you don’t outlive your savings.

I understand the financial advisor’s perspective. Our kind of pension plan is the competition, and it can’t be fun competing with those whose sole mandate is to provide retirement security, free from the interference of profit margins and private interests.

It certainly seems that at a quarter of the cost, our business provides people with a superior retirement experience. The defined benefit pension is the most cost-effective way to generate retirement savings, because the individuals involved are the only interested parties, and they are all in it together. That’s why investment advisors call their constituents “clients,” while we call ours “members.” 

Earlier today, I had a chance to speak with Peter Lindley on this and other topics.

First, let me thank him, Claire Prashaw and rest of the communications team which were on that call (it was actually a Teams video meeting but I had issues with Teams this morning so I dialed in).

Peter began talking to me about how the health crisis has impacted Ontario's non-profit sector.

He had a discussion with Cathy Taylor, Executive Director of the Ontario Nonprofit Network (ONN), a before we spoke and she told him that 20-25% of Ontario's non-profits might shutter their operations because they haven't been able to generate the fundraising revenues.

There are ongoing discussions with the Ontario Government but thus far, there has been no commitment from the government to help this sector (governments tend to focus on for profit businesses).

Apart from directly impacted social services, if a quarter of all of Ontario's non-profits organizations close their doors, it will impact employment and disproportionately impact women with modest incomes which tend to work  at these non-profits.

Peter was right to point this out and lest we all forget, pension poverty disproportionately hits more women than men (for a lot of reasons).

Anyway, I asked him if this has put a dent on OPTrust Select garnering new members and he said "not at all, in fact, we  surpassed 1000 members from 42 organizations, four more organizations will join and demand is strong."

We then got into an interesting conversation on investing in a zero-bound world.

I mentioned to him my recent discussion with HOOPP's CEO Jeff Wendling on LDI 2.0 and my comment on CPP Investments reviewing its massive bond portfolio.

Peter told me  no doubt, as rates decline to zero and central banks commit to keeping them low for longer, it will impact pensions in three critical ways:

  1. It will make pension look less sustainable
  2. It will impact future returns as they will be lower
  3. It will place more pressure on pensions for scenario analysis

On that last point, he told me what keeps him up at night is a second wave of COVID-19 impacting economic activity and financial markets and rates declining further.

In terms of abandoning the LDI approach, he said they will proceed very slowly in terms of rejigging their asset mix as long bond yields approach zero but offered some insights:

  • Shortening up duration and focusing on spread products
  • Investing in more real return bonds (RRBs)
  • Looking for more selective deals in private markets

On private markets, he said 40% of their assets are in privates and there are two issues:

  1. The ability to influence businesses directly, make them more profitable over the long run and harvest the results. You can't do this investing in public markets.
  2. managing your liquidity risk very tightly.

On liquidity risk, he told me they ran a stress test and under a 2008 GFC scenario, still had $3 billion of excess liquidity at the end of March, which is excellent for a $22 billion pension plan (keep in mind, they can also borrow if things get really bad).

Now, in terms of the article above he posted on LinkedIn, I was surprised to hear no major newspaper (Globe or National Post) would publish it, so they decided to post it on a social media site.

Well, I can't say I'm too surprised, the financial industry pays for most of the ads at these major newspapers and anything that goes against them or is perceived to go against them will be blocked by their editors (sad state of affairs when these major newspapers refuse to publish different opinions).

Peter told me there four critical points that people need to understand:

  1. There are major tax implications to taking money out of your pension to invest with an advisor, especially if you're at your maximum tax bracket when doing this. "That means, on day 1, you'll be left with 2/3 of your savings to invest."
  2. The major risk of taking money out of a pension is you're underestimating longevity risk -- ie. the risk of outliving your savings. A well managed and well governed pension pools longevity and investment risk so you never outlive your savings and you won't retire in poverty if markets crash. 
  3. As you get older, investment advisors typically tell you to reduce risk, but if you're in a well managed pension, you leave it up to professionals to opportunistically take risks across private and public markets as they arise.
  4. And last but not least, investment advisors charge hefty fees whereas well managed pension pool assets to reduce fees drastically. Over time, fees eat away up to a third of your gains, something IAs don't like to share with you as they drive around in their Porsche or Land Rovers (there are many good IAs but a bunch of overpaid bozos).

Lastly, I did ask him about OPTrust's performance this year and he said it turned positive but was very cautious as the year isn't over and he brought up some good points:

  • The second wave of COVID is happening right now and it can have a big impact on markets regardless of who is elected in November.
  • Private markets (Real Estate, Private Equity and Infrastructure) are typically appraised during the last quarter of the year and some sector will be hit while others will be fine.
  • Most importantly, Canadian long bond yield went from 1.75% at the end of 2019 to 1% now, so liabilities "will be disproportionately impacted" as the duration of liabilities is a lot bigger than the duration of assets.

Keep in mind, unlike large pension funds (CPP Investments, BCI, CDPQ, PSP Investments), OPTrust, OTPP, OMERS and HOOPP are large pension pans which manage assets and liabilities and they measure success through their funded status, not their annual rate of return over a benchmark. 

Also, on Sunday, Lisa Abramowicz of Bloomberg shared this FT article tweeting: Commercial properties hit by the economic effects of Covid are being written down by 27% on average: Wells Fargo data. “The numbers themselves are atrocious. A 30% markdown in appraisals pretty much across the board is horrific.”

You can bet there will be some significant witedowns in some real estate assets at all major pensions.

Alright, I think I covered the main gist of my conversation with Peter Lindley.

Once again, I thank him for taking the time to speak with me earlier today.

Before I forget, Peter told me he was feeling a "little off" because of social distancing and not being able to see people at the office. "There are some days where it gets to you."

Take it from me, working from home has its benefits and drawbacks, chief among them is you don't interact with colleagues on a regular basis (albeit, sometimes that's a blessing).

The most important thing is to stay disciplined and focused but also to take care of  yourself:

  • Take your vitamin D every day, a minimum of 1,000 IUs a day, and I would recommend three to five times that amount every day during the winter months. Not surprisingly, the 'sunshine vitamin" may be COVID shield and curb severity and even Dr. Fauci recommends you take it, especially if you're deficient (I've been taking it for 20 years and now take 20,000 IUs in one shot, once a week).
  • Start your morning off right. Forget the gym, try to go for a short brisk walk first thing in the morning, suck in some oxygen, then come home and make yourself a delicious smoothie. My go-to morning smoothie consists of frozen wild blueberries, a handful of almonds, walnuts, pumpkin seeds, one Brazilian nut, one large table spoon of Greek yogurt, an apple (cut it in four slices) and I add half unsweetened coconut milk and cold water and mix it all together. This smoothie isn't just delicious, it packs lots of fiber and nutrients and will keep you full well into early afternoon (it also packs a lot of calories so take it easy on the nuts). I have it three times a week, and twice a week, like making scrambled eggs (only use omega-3 eggs), brown toast and cherry tomatoes with sea salt and drizzle extra virgin Greek olive oil on them. If you feel really full in the morning because you ate a heavy dinner the previous night, have a coffee and skip breakfast altogether and wait to eat a healthy lunch (intermittent fasting is actually healthy).
  • Contact people you like to talk to. Sure, check in on your parents, family and friends to make sure they are ok, but also talk to your colleagues and don't just talk about work or markets. Talk about politics, health, their kids, whatever, connect with them, let them know you're there if they need someone to talk to (too many people take themselves way too seriously).
  • Focus on those less fortunate. There are a lot of people in very dire situations during this pandemic and it's good to remind yourself that organizations need help in helping these people cope with all sorts of issues, like providing them food and clothing and addressing extreme poverty, homelessness, drug addiction or all the above (don't be self-absorbed, it's bad for your mental psyche).
  • Get quality sleep. You can be eating right (the Pesco-Mediterranean diet is the best), exercising right (learn about HIT), but if you're not getting quality sleep, you're doing major damage to your mind and body. You should be sleeping a minimum eight hours a night (seven is fine but not enough). Invest in a great mattress (try them out, don't be cheap) and pillow (the regular flat pillows are what I prefer since I'm a side sleeper). I detest memory foam mattresses and pillows, sleep at the same time and always in a very cool room. Also, if you're not waking up refreshed, go see a sleep doctor, you're probably suffering from sleep apnea and don't know it (affects more men than women but it is more common that you think).  You might also be suffering from magnesium deficiency, very common among those with poor diets.

The only reason I'm sharing all this is too many people are feeling down and very anxious these days.

It's perfectly normal, we are living in a pandemic, lots of stressors to deal with but if you feel you're unable to cope, don't hesitate to talk to your doctor and get some professional help (intelligent people seek help when needed, dummies are too stubborn or proud to seek help and it catches up with them).

Alright, enough with my health pep talk, you get it, take good care of yourself so you can take care of your loved ones and colleagues, even if it's done through distancing. 

And that goes for all of you, from junior analysts to CEOs.

Below, a video which highlights how OPTrust Select complements existing social security programs and private savings. It also provides a brief background on OPTrust and the key benefits of the Defined Benefit pension model. Great clip, shows you why OPTrust Select and DB plans are the way to go.

And for or decades, researchers have studied what diet is best for good health. New findings show a twist on the traditional Mediterranean diet may be ideal for cardiovascular health.

CBS Miami reports a review of research in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology shows a Pesco-Mediterranean diet, which is rich in plants, nuts, whole grains, extra virgin olive oil, and emphasizes seafood as the main protein, may be the way to go. 

Lastly, the pandemic has been particularly hard for Canadians with disabilities. More than a third 36% have reported job losses or reduced working hours since March. Disability advocate and journalist Kevin McShan is one of them, and he appeared on CTV's Your Morning discussing what he wants the federal government to do to spur economic opportunities for people with disabilities. 

Great interview, I told Peter and the communications team about Kevin and hope they and others reach out to him, he's an unbelievable advocate for people with disabilities.

Kevin recently interviewed Meggie Stewart, Siobhan Costelloe and Jackie Moore on how Ready, Willing and Able develops inclusive and effective labor markets. Watch it below, it's an excellent discussion.

Ready, Willing and Able (RWA) is a national partnership of the Canadian Association for Community Living (CACL), the Canadian Autism Spectrum Disorders Alliance (CASDA) and their member organizations. Funded by the Government of Canada and active in 20 communities across the country, RWA is designed to increase the labour force participation of people with an intellectual disability or Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD).

Kevin also recently interviewed Amy Ballantyne, a holistic health coach & lifestyle mentor on why women need to take better care of themselves and he also just interviewed Andrea Wilson Woods, a writer on a mission to end Cancer and has dedicated her life to the mission on ending Liver Cancer specifically.

Ms. Wilson Woods is a patient advocate who founded the nonprofit Blue Faery: The Adrienne Wilson Liver Cancer Association. She is the CEO and co-founder of Cancer University, a for-profit, social-benefit, digital health company. 

Both these interviews are well worth watching and you can subscribe to Kevin's YouTube channel here.

HOOPP's Steve McCormick on Canadian Retirement Security

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HOOPP just published its latest research showing that amid the financial hit of COVID-19, three out of four Canadians would choose greater retirement security over more money now:

As Canadians feel the financial impact of COVID-19, their desire for pensions – and their willingness to pay for them – remains strong, according to new research from the Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan (HOOPP) and Abacus Data.

In May and June of 2020, HOOPP commissioned Abacus Data to conduct a public opinion survey of 3,500 Canadians gauging their views on retirement preparedness, workplace pensions and the implications of decreasing pension coverage. A comparable survey in 2019 found Canadians are thinking of the future, want to be prepared for it, and know a pension is the solution.

“This year's findings reaffirm Canadians’ personal and societal concerns around retirement security,” said Steven McCormick, SVP, Plan Operations, HOOPP. “Immediate public health and financial considerations stemming from COVID-19 have not changed Canadians’ commitment to pensions, and their willingness to pay for them to ensure a better future for themselves and for everyone.”

This includes a continued willingness to do their part and forgo money today in exchange for a better future with the help of a pension.

Key findings include:

  • More than half (57%) report their own financial situation has been harmed since March, and 62% are concerned about the value of their investments/savings as a result of COVID-19.
  • More Canadians are concerned about their retirement security (55%) than their job security (44%).

Despite these immediate and personal concerns, Canadians take a long-term view:

  • Almost three quarters (72%) of Canadians agree there is an emerging retirement income crisis.
  • 84% believe it is in everyone’s best interest for more people to have better retirement savings. This view spans high- and low-income earners, political affiliations, and those with and without a pension.
  • 77% believe that without good pensions, the economy will suffer.
  • 76% are concerned that if workers are unable to access good workplace pensions and contribute during their working lives, they will eventually become a burden on the taxpayer.

Canadians also agree on what kind of pension they think is most effective:

  • 78% said reasonable pay cheque deductions are an effective way of helping Canadians pay for retirement.
  • 82% said all workers should have a pension that guarantees a percentage of their working income in retirement.
  • 86% said all workers should have access to efficient retirement savings arrangements.

Other recent research from HOOPP, the Value of a Good Pension, looked at how to make saving for retirement more efficient; and highlights the five value drivers that help savers optimize their retirement income: automatic contributions, lower fees and costs, professional investment management, fiduciary governance, and risk pooling.

“Canadians have observed the erosion of workplace pension plans, and they are concerned about the impacts – for individuals, for the economy and on public funds,” said Abacus Data CEO David Coletto. “And they have an expectation that their employers will help, as 76% said companies have a responsibility to offer pensions that provide adequate retirement income.”

Coletto added: “While Canadians recognize that businesses have also been negatively affected by COVID, they still believe that good retirement savings programs can be made more widely available.”

Canadians are willing to do their part:

  • 79% would rather their employer make pension contributions than receive that money as salary. Remarkably, this percentage was the same, even for Canadians who said their finances were negatively impacted by COVID-19 “a great deal.”
  • 74% would accept a slightly lower salary in exchange for a better (or any) pension plan.

McCormick said: “Canadians are saying, as a country, we need to do more and we know what works. There needs to be ongoing dialogue between government, business and the retirement security community on how we can provide more efficient, affordable and sustainable retirement savings vehicles for all Canadians.”

He added: “At HOOPP we have expanded access where we can – within Ontario’s healthcare sector. It is an honour to support those who support all of us, especially during these difficult times. We have added more than 125,000 members and almost 250 employers in the past 10 years. Also, more than 30% of our members work part-time. This is a segment of the working population that often doesn’t have access to pensions and, despite limited disposable income, have voluntarily chosen to join HOOPP. This is yet another sign that Canadians know what works and appreciate the value of a good pension.”

More details of the research can be found on HOOPP’s website.

These findings are based on a survey conducted online with 3,500 Canadians, ages 18 and older, from May 27 to June 5, 2020. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.63%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment and region.

About the Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan

HOOPP serves Ontario’s hospital and community-based healthcare sector, with more than 590 participating employers. Its membership includes nurses, medical technicians , food services staff, housekeeping staff, and many others who provide valued healthcare services. In total, HOOPP has more than 380,000 active, deferred and retired members.

HOOPP operates as a private independent trust, and is governed by a Board of Trustees with a sole fiduciary duty to deliver the pension promise. The Board has representation from the Ontario Hospital Association (OHA) and four unions: the Ontario Nurses' Association (ONA), the Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE), the Ontario Public Service Employees' Union (OPSEU), and the Service Employees International Union (SEIU).

About Abacus Data

Abacus Data is a market research and public opinion firm based in Ottawa. We conduct research for and provide strategic counsel to some of North America’s leading corporations and advocacy groups by delivering global research capacities with the attention to detail and focus of a boutique firm. Our team has over 45 years combined research and consulting experience working with associations, using public opinion research to inform internal strategies and raise issues on the public and government agenda.

Earlier today, I spoke with Steven McCormick, SVP, Plan Operations at HOOPP, about this latest research. 

I would first like to thank him for taking the time to talk to me and also thank James Geuzebroek
Senior Manager, Media and Public Affairs, for setting this Microsoft Teams web meeting up (it worked today, I figured out what went wrong yesterday).

Anyway, I hope Steve doesn't mind, snapped a quick picture of him and thoroughly enjoyed our conversation. He's a super nice guy who really understands plan design and why DB pensions are now more important than ever to millions of Canadians looking to retire in dignity and security.

Now, before I delve into my conversation with Steve, please take the time to go to HOOPP's research page and download some important documents, like the Executive Summary and the full presentation of the results.

James was kind enough to send this information ahead of time (on an embargoed basis) so I can prepare for my discussion with Steve.

Now, on to my conversation with Steve. I began by asking him about his background:

Interestingly, he previously worked in the US for a large retail bank and handle 401(k) plans.

When I heard that, I immediately brought to his attention a comment I wrote six years ago on the brutal truth on DC plans.

At HOOPP, Steve oversees areas that cover member/ employer services, plan design and benefit administration. 

And since HOOPP always puts its members first, I'd say he has huge responsibilities and HOOPP couldn't have picked a better person for this job.

He works closely with HOOPP's Board of Trustees which governs the Plan and Fund. The Board is made up of 16 voting members, who have a fiduciary duty to act in the best interests of Plan members.

Eight trustees are appointed by the Ontario Hospital Association (OHA) and four unions each appoint two trustees. The unions are:

There can be two non-voting pension observers on the Board. One observer representing retired members is appointed by the OHA and one is appointed by the Settlor Unions.

Anyway, Steve told me HOOPP now has over 380,000 members coming from 590 employers across Ontario's healthcare industry (these are the latest figures). It added more than 125,000 members and almost 250 employers in the past 10 years.

HOOPP covers the pensions of all of Ontario's salaried workers at hospitals (including some doctors that are on salary), and is increasingly attracting new members from family health teams, community health centers, and other healthcare organizations (see full list here but it's not up-to-date as more employers have joined the Plan).

Steve told me since HOOPP is a multi-employer pension plan, it is easy for members to build their pension as they move from one HOOPP employer to another. 

This portability with HOOPP is a critical feature because it allows employees to move from one employer to another without worrying about losing their defined-benefit pension.

Results of the Research Study

We obviously talked at length about the results of this research study.

I can't say the results surprised me. Just like in the US where retirement angst is gripping millions of Americans, more and more Canadians are worried about how they will retire in dignity and security.

And the massive bull market since 2009 hasn't done much to ease their concerns.

In fact, Steve told me last year's research findings showed similar concerns. 

Obviously, the pandemic has heightened retirement angst and you see it from the key findings:

  • More than half (57%) report their own financial situation has been harmed since March, and 62% are concerned about the value of their investments/savings as a result of COVID-19.
  • More Canadians are concerned about their retirement security (55%) than their job security (44%).

Still, despite these immediate and personal concerns, Canadians take a long-term view:

  • Almost three quarters (72%) of Canadians agree there is an emerging retirement income crisis.
  • 84% believe it is in everyone’s best interest for more people to have better retirement savings. This view spans high- and low-income earners, political affiliations, and those with and without a pension.
  • 77% believe that without good pensions, the economy will suffer.
  • 76% are concerned that if workers are unable to access good workplace pensions and contribute during their working lives, they will eventually become a burden on the taxpayer.

Canadians also agree on what kind of pension they think is most effective:

  • 78% said reasonable pay cheque deductions are an effective way of helping Canadians pay for retirement.
  • 82% said all workers should have a pension that guarantees a percentage of their working income in retirement.
  • 86% said all workers should have access to efficient retirement savings arrangements.

What this tells me is Canadians overwhelmingly see the value of a good pension, something HOOPP has been harping on for quite some time. 

And while Canadians recognize that businesses have also been negatively affected by COVID, they still believe that good retirement savings programs can be made more widely available and they are willing to do their part:

  • 79% would rather their employer make pension contributions than receive that money as salary. Remarkably, this percentage was the same, even for Canadians who said their finances were negatively impacted by COVID-19 “a great deal.”
  • 74% would accept a slightly lower salary in exchange for a better (or any) pension plan.

Keep in mind, these are Canadians from all sides of the political spectrum and they are right to be concerned.

Steve McCormick is right: “Canadians are saying, as a country, we need to do more and we know what works. There needs to be ongoing dialogue between government, business and the retirement security community on how we can provide more efficient, affordable and sustainable retirement savings vehicles for all Canadians.”

I told him that I get emails from retired Canadians with $100,000 to $300,000 in savings and they are petrified of outliving their savings, and quite honestly, don't have a clue of what to do.

What am I going to tell them? Buy Bell Canada shares (BCE) and collect 5% dividend and pray the dividend won't be cut or shares don't get slammed over the next decade or decades?

These are legitimate concerns people have.

That's the majority of Canadians who have worked years to amass these savings.

Then I have affluent, sophisticated blog readers. One of them, a retired securities lawyer out in Vancouver who is approaching 60-years of age told me he had enough worrying about markets and bought himself an annuity for $2.3 million guaranteeing him $10,000 a month over the next 25 years.

As he explained it to me: 

In the event of my untimely death prior to the 25 year term, my wife will get the principal. I paid a little more for that option. I basically paid for a DB plan with no inflation hedge but it cost me a lot to do this whereas in a DB plan, payments (contributions) are spread over many years and even decades. I realized that I can very well live to be 100 years old so longevity risk is a big risk for me.

An annuity is very tax efficient. I’m being taxed on 24% of the income received, so the taxable portion of $100,000 is $24,000. Based on advice from my accountant relative to my annuity income, I’m guessing that would result in tax of $2200 per year, assuming that is the sole source of income. In BC the personal exemption is about $13,000 and the tax rate on the remaining $11,000 is 20% (the marginal rate on the first $42,000 of income). You can see how trivial the taxes payable is relative to the “income”. (Even though we refer to it as income, the payments aren’t really income until the purchase price has been returned.)

Regarding your question on taxation of principal, I think you are probably correct. The payout rate on the annuity in my case is 4% of the annuity price. That is not a yield until I have received my purchase price back on an after-tax basis. In my case, my pre-tax breakeven is about 23 years and my post-tax breakeven is about 23.5 years. Once I reach that point, what has been substantively (though not from a taxation perspective) a return of capital becomes a very high yield relative to rates today, resulting in a potentially decent IRR over the entire term if I or my wife live long enough.

My guess is that if you live long enough the total taxes paid under the annuity could very well be less than the bond approach because although 100% of payments received after break-even constitute yield in the conventional sense, only 24% of it is treated as taxable income. This contingent tax benefit supplements the non-contingent tax benefit deriving from the way the annuity reduces taxes in the early years of ownership, benefiting the annuitant by virtue of the time value of money, not to mention improved quality of life in the early years of retirement, when the higher after-tax income is most likely to be spent. 

He added:

Once I reach breakeven, every dollar thereafter received under the annuity is profit, true income. Based on current tax rates in B.C., that sort of income would ordinarily attract a tax rate of between 33 and 38%. Yet the annuity income is still subject only to the 24% inclusion. In the US I believe annuities are taxed on an accrual basis, so taxable income is higher in earlier years (much like it would be with a bond portfolio approach), declining in later years; and approximately after breakeven the income becomes fully taxable. US taxation would appear to be much less favourable to annuitants than Canadian.

So, if prior to breakeven the annuity was tax unfair to annuitant to the tune of $2200 per month, an aggregate $51,000 to breakeven 23 years from now, after breakeven would appear to be tax unfair to treasury to the tune of probably about $33,000 per annum. What would be fair all around is no taxation until breakeven and fully taxable thereafter, but under that regime I would do substantially worse if I live past breakeven.

Of course, all of this is subject to a change in tax rules. But we can only work with what we’ve got. 

Now, I don't want to bore you with details of annuities as they're not all the same (stay away from variable annuities), but it's obvious this person put in a great deal of thought and research before buying an annuity for $2.3 million.

In a world of zero or negative rates, having some component of your wealth in an annuity makes sense. It provides certain cash flow which allows this person to take added risk in other parts of his portfolio should he choose to do so (he has other money which he invests to give away to charities). 

And from a tax perspective, the annuity is neutral at the beginning but beneficial past the breakeven date.  

So why don't all Canadians buy annuities? Well, most Canadians don't have $2.3 million lying around which is why the most cost efficient way to invest is through a defined-benefit pension.

Also, as Steve pointed out, even the most sophisticated investors can struggle in these markets, so it's not surprising many regular investors find it difficult and emotionally taxing to invest in highly volatile markets. 

Again, this is why we need to expand coverage of DB pensions to more Canadians.

It's all laid out in HOOPP's prior research paper, the Value of a Good Pension, which  looked at how to make saving for retirement more efficient; and highlights the five value drivers that help savers optimize their retirement income: automatic contributions, lower fees and costs, professional investment management, fiduciary governance, and risk pooling.

The irony of all this is while Canada has the world's best pensions, we are falling short covering all Canadians with a gold plated DB plan, which is why our retirement system isn't the best in the world. 

Quite honestly, this irks me a lot. It's why is a recent comment of mine, I said we don't need a second Caisse but "if we are to create a new public pension in Quebec and Canada, it's my recommendation to create a second CPP Investments of sorts which focuses solely on amalgamating and managing badly managed corporate DB pensions in this country, backed by the full faith and credit of the Canadian government but with a shared risk model (jointly sponsored plan)."  

My own political and economic views are right of center, just like some of my friends, but I am and will always remain an ardent defender of large, well-governed defined-benefit plans with a shared risk model. 

In a flourishing democracy, I believe in the primacy of the private sector but I also believe in equality of opportunity and think we absolutely need to provide free healthcare, education and address the retirement needs of our aging population. 

It's not just good policy, it's the right thing to do for our economy over the long run.

And by reading the results of HOOPP's latest study, I'd say Canadians from all political stripes are in agreement with me.

We have a great country but we need to build on what works and stop pandering to the powerful financial services industry which quite honestly, has done an abysmal job addressing the retirement needs of millions of Canadians.

That's all from me. Once again, I thank Steve McCormick for taking the time to speak with me earlier today and also thank James Geuzebroek for setting this up.

I'd also like to thank HOOPP for referencing my blog in a recent update of theirs which you can read here.

In fact, concerning my recent discussion with HOOPP's CEO Jeff Wendling on LDI 2.0 in a zero bound world, you can also read this article in the Canadian Investment Review and watch a video of the interview between Yaelle Gang, Editor of the Canadian Investment Review and Jeff Wendling. 

Below, back in February, HOOPP's former CEO Jim Keohane sat down with Real Vision's Ed Harrisson to discuss HOOPP. In the first clip below, he evaluates the various merits (and shortcomings) of defined-benefit plans as compared to defined-contribution plans.

In the second clip, Jim explains how pension funds can pool risk across generations, allowing them to invest a greater percentage of their portfolio in stocks. Take the time to watch both clips, full interview is available here.

CPP Investments' High-Carbon Approach?

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Professor Cynthia Williams, chair of business law at Osgoode Hall Law School and co-principal investigator of the Canada Climate Law Initiative, wrote a comment for Corporate Knights arguing CPP Investments should be supporting the government’s low-carbon transition policies:

The Canada Pension Plan (CPP) is one of the world’s largest public pension funds, with $434.4 billion in assets under management as of June. The mandate of the investment board that runs it (CPPIB) has been to manage funds in the best interests of Canadian CPP contributors and beneficiaries (Canada’s retirees) and to maximize investment returns – all without undue risk of loss. As CPP Investments CEO and president Mark Machin recently observed, “Our investment mandate and professional governance insulate our decision-making from short-term distortions and gives us license to help shape the long-term future.”

However, our Canada Climate Law Initiative analysis of CPPIB’s disclosures calls into question the kind of future that it’s helping to create. In our report, Troubling Incrementalism, we found that CPPIB was heavily invested in six high-carbon, billion-dollar investments, both in Canadian oil sands and in hydraulic fracturing in the United States. In four of the six cases examined, CPPIB established the companies in question, investing billions of dollars and putting CPPIB employees and former employees on the boards of the companies it had created.

The report raises questions about whether CPP Investments should continue to support the resource-intensive Canadian economy as it is now – financially risky and inconsistent with the low-carbon economy – particularly now that the federal government has committed to net-zero emissions by 2050. CPPIB’s investments in oil sands and fracked gas lost 23% last year, making Energy and Resources its worst-performing asset class. If CPPIB is projecting losses for a decade or more in an investment class, shouldn’t it be making long-term investments in new technologies, companies and future prospects?

Legal research by CCLI found that Canadian courts, regulators and investors now recognize that climate change poses systemic financial risks and should be addressed accordingly. Pension trustees also have fiduciary obligations in terms of intergenerational equity; shouldn’t CPPIB’s investments support industries of the future that will create the jobs, infrastructure and growth today that Canada will need to become a thriving economy in the 21st century?

Addressing concerns raised by CPPIB’s carbon-intensive holdings is not simply a matter of divesting from high-carbon investments. It’s a question of asking CPPIB to stop its direct support of expanded oil sands development, and “fracking” in the U.S., and asking it to start putting its money and managerial expertise to work creating companies that will expedite Canada’s transition to a lower-carbon future.

Over the past months, a number of promising studies have shown that there are significant economic and environmental opportunities in Canada from investments in a low-carbon economy, from energy retrofits for existing buildings, to investments in electric vehicle infrastructure, to scaling up nature-based solutions. These are industries where CPPIB’s financial sophistication and dedicated assets could well be brought to bear in service of developing new opportunities while supporting the transition to a low-carbon economy. The recently launched Green New Bill campaign calculates that Canada could see $308 in returns to the economy over the next decade for every $20 the federal government invests today through existing arm’s-length institutions charged with a fiduciary duty to Canadians.

We contend that it is time to have a serious discussion about the role of a national public pension fund in its home country. We invite CPP Investments to engage with contributors to and beneficiaries of CPP in a careful discussion of what its responsibilities are to support the government’s transition policies. If CPP Investments contributes to the development of low-carbon solutions, it could help to unlock purely private capital through de-risking and co-investment strategies and could provide the kinds of venture capital long missing in the Canadian economy.

We urge CPPIB to take seriously its power to reshape the future into which Canadians will retire.

This article literally popped up late this afternoon on my radar and I couldn't resist but to tackle it head on.

First, and most importantly, the views expressed below are solely my own, and even though I suspect the folks at CPP Investments and other large Canadian pensions will privately agree with me, I have not contacted them or anyone else regarding this article and the issues raised above (I literally just read it).

I want to make that clear because I have very strong opinions on a lot of issues related to pensions and investments: well governed DB plans are much better than DC plans, diversity and inclusion are a must and it's high time to include people with disabilities, sound pension governance which keeps governments out of public pensions' investments and operations is absolutely critical, and I'm totally against divestment of any kind except if there is a real sound and legitimate case for it (like tobacco where radiation oncologist Dr Bronwyn King convinced me that divestment is the only real solution because it's futile engaging with tobacco companies).  

But even with tobacco, a friend of mine brought up a good point: "I hate cigarettes but as long as governments haven't made it illegal, why are we telling our public pensions struggling to find yield what they can and can't invest in?".

Anyway, back to professor Williams comment above. It really bugs me when people start with an ideological stance and then make an argument to support their ideology, presenting half-truths and misinformation.  

Let me be blunt, while I don't dispute her heart and mind are in the right place and that she's a very intelligent lady, she doesn't have a clue of what she's talking about in this comment which comes across as nothing more than another academic hatchet job full of lies and misinformation.  

Worse still, it shows the lack of depth in understanding and appreciating CPP Investments and all its operations.

In a recent comment of mine going over why CPP Investments is reviewing its bond portfolio, I touched upon these increasing calls for the Fund to divest out of the fossil fuel industry:

Canada pension plan's fossil-fuel investments raise climate risks, study says:

Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB), which manages the pensions of 20 million Canadians, is investing billions of dollars in fossil fuel companies, exposing it to significant climate-related risks, research by two universities said on Thursday.

The study was done by Canada Climate Law Initiative (CCLI), a project of the University of British Columbia and Toronto’s York University.

The research acknowledged the progress made by Canada’s biggest pension fund, including the doubling of its renewable energy holdings, but found the board’s continued fossil fuel investments revealed a “troubling incrementalism.”

Six of CPPIB’s 15 private transactions in the past six years were in fossil fuels, and an earlier analysis found the fund has invested in 79 of the world’s top 200 public oil, gas and coal companies.

The energy sector has “the strongest of motives to adapt, have the access to capital to do so and the technology know-how to innovate,” CPPIB spokesman Michel Leduc said. “The idea, through divestment, of starving them of capital, would... likely be harmful or counterproductive.”

The report says globally, climate risk is recognized as a material enterprise risk, impacting supply chains, future cash flows and disrupting business models across industries. CPPIB’s public and private investments raise questions about its ability to cope with sudden or unexpected changes in consumer and investor preferences or in government policy.

CCLI called for the fund, which had C$434 billion in funds under management as of end June, to set “transparent and aggressive” targets for a carbon-neutral portfolio.

Fossil fuel producers and services made up 2.8% of CPPIB’s investments as of March 31, from 4.6% two years earlier. CPPIB CEO Mark Machin told Reuters in May the fund is comfortable with its energy exposure.

I'll try to keep my cool and remain respectful to the Canada Climate Law Initiative (CCLI) and all the tree-hugging granolas who are highly critical of CPP Investments' fossil fuel investments.

These people simply don't know what they're talking about, they are dangerous critics who think the answer for all pensions is to divest from fossil fuel industry altogether.

I can't stand this Al Gore holier-than- thou sanctimonious nonsense! And this is me talking, not CPP Investments!!

I suggest all these environmental zealots stay out of pension investments, period.

Alright, let me regain my composure.

CPP Investments does take ESG investing seriously but that definitely doesn't mean divesting from oil & gas. To do so would be to contravene their fiduciary responsibility which is to maximize returns without taking undue risks.

I suggest all these environmental groups read my recent comments on the rise of constructive capital and Big Oil for the long run.  

If you ask me, at just less than 3% of its total portfolio, I'd say CPP Investments is under-invested in fossil fuel producers. If it were up to me, I'd increase that allocation to 6% and buy companies like Enbridge, Exxon and Chevron, all of which pay a great dividend yield.

I'd better stop there before I receive nasty emails from environmentalists who think they know more about pension investments than me or the folks at CPP Investments.

What these people need to realize is all of Canada's large pensions take climate risk seriously but they also have a fiduciary responsibility to their members and are better off engaging the fossil fuel industry rather than divesting from it. 

I literally spent the day re-reading CPP Investments' Fiscal 2020 Annual Report for a consulting mandate I'm working on and I'm really getting into the details of its total portfolio management, its strategy and how the Fund adds value across public and private markets and how it manages all sorts of risks, including climate change. 

Admittedly, there is a ton of information in this annual report and it's a bit overwhelming for anyone to read it cover to cover. Even I missed a lot of things the first time I read it because I skimmed through it quickly to write my comment covering their fiscal year results.

But if it's one thing I can assure you, CPP Investments is extremely transparent in its investments and process and it definitely invests almost as much in power and renewable energy than it does in traditional "fossil fuel, high carbon" investments.

If you don't believe me, have a look at its asset mix:


As shown above, $8.7 billion or 2.1% is invested in Power and Renewable assets as opposed to 2.8% in fossil fuel investments.

And keep in mind, CPP Investments' green team is still very hard at work, so those "green investments" are growing a lot faster than traditional energy investments.

Also, CPP Investments just published its 2020 Report on Sustainable Investing:

Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments) has published its annual Report on Sustainable Investing, which outlines the organization’s approach to environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors. It includes:

  • New data showing investments in global renewable energy companies more than doubled to $6.6 billion in the year to June 30, 2020. Partners include Alberta’s Enbridge Inc. and Brazil’s Votorantim Energia;
  • A new section which formally sets out for the first time CPP Investments’ expectations of our portfolio companies;
  • Increased detail on how our investment teams assess the potential impact of climate change on our portfolio and new investment opportunities; and
  • The latest work of our Climate Change Opportunities strategy.

“This new century has fundamentally changed the nature of business, with the heightened expectations of stakeholders helping to bring ESG issues to the forefront. We believe that by fully considering ESG risks and opportunities, we become better investors and are able to enhance returns and reduce risk for the Fund’s more than 20 million contributors and beneficiaries,” said Mark Machin, President & CEO, CPP Investments. “Addressing sustainability is not just pressing for society and the planet – it is a business imperative.”

In the report, CPP Investments articulates its support of companies aligning reporting with the recommendations of the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB) and the Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD).

“We require that companies we invest in demonstrate that they have, or are working towards, effective and diverse boards of directors, have incentives aligned to long-term performance, effective disclosure of material climate change impacts and that they clearly articulate how integration of ESG factors has informed strategy and enhanced returns or reduced risk in the business,” said Richard Manley, Managing Director, Head of Sustainable Investing, CPP Investments. “Companies should also have a culture that proactively identifies emerging risks and opportunities and seeks solutions to reduce or capture their potential.”

Some other key highlights of the 2020 report include:

  • Climate Change: we provide greater clarity regarding our views on the energy industry’s evolution in the context of climate change, including our support of and partnership with companies in the development of solutions and strategies as we move to a lower-carbon world.
  • Engagement: we highlight the importance we place as an active manager on engagement with businesses on focus areas including climate change, water, human rights, executive compensation and board effectiveness. We believe engagement gives us a powerful influence with the Canadian and global companies in which we invest. Active ownership through constructive engagement can significantly reduce investment risks and enhance and sustain returns over time.
  • Partnerships: CPP Investments continues to leverage partnerships and collaborations globally to help improve transparency and standards on ESG, promoting governance best practices and advocating for long-term thinking in the investment and corporate worlds.

Produced during the COVID-19 pandemic, the report also cites how the pandemic has reaffirmed the organization’s belief in the importance of having a resilient long-term strategy and incorporating ESG issues into the investment process.

A summary of the report can be downloaded here and the full report can be downloaded here.

I'll admit, I have not read the full report yet but just by reading the highlights, I can tell Mark Machin and Richard Manley, Managing Director, Head of Sustainable Investing, take sustainable investing very seriously and they are looking to promote it throughout all their public and private investments.

But make no mistake, sustainable investing at CPP Investments and all of Canada's large public pensions complement and enhance their investment approach, it doesn't supersede their fiduciary duty which is to take risk and deliver the highest risk-adjusted returns across public and private markets.

What I'm getting at here is if the senior managers at CPP Investments and their very informed public and private market partners see opportunities in traditional energy, it is incumbent upon them to invest in this sector no matter what the Canada Climate Law Initiative or other environmental organizations think. 

Again, these people pushing their environmental agenda aren't bad people but they're severely ill-informed and they really don't have a clue of how about CPP Investments' governance and investment approach.

I cover public markets every Friday. Last Friday, I wrote a comment on preparing for rough waters ahead where I stated this:

[...] it was a choppy week with stocks getting slammed earlier this week.

For the week, here is the performance of major S&P market sectors: 

 

The first thing you will note is Energy (XLE) got slammed hard this week, down 8.6%.

Last week, I wrote a comment on Big Oil for the long run and told my readers while I like the prospects of giant oil companies over the long run, in the short run, we can get a final washout.

How low can these oil stocks go? That's anyone's guess but they're hitting multi-decade lows here:

What I think is happening is the quant/ momentum managers are still shorting the sector hard and the fundamental/ value managers are quietly accumulating energy shares here.

The other issue I have is ESG funds buying mega-cap tech shares, contributing to the tech bubble, and ignoring any stock in the energy index.

When will this silliness stop? Again, your guess is as good as mine but it's clear energy shares (XLE) are under immense pressure and we can see a retest of March lows or worse:


That's why it's critically important to always be disciplined and never invest more than a certain percentage of your portfolio in any stock (say 5%), you just never know how low prices can go.

If I were to hazard a guess, I'd say there's a major carry trade that has been going on for a few years, Long Tech/ Short Energy and this is still the trade large leveraged funds are betting on.

Thing with carry trades is when they blow up, they blow up spectacularly, especially in a zero-bound world.

We all know energy stocks are getting slammed hard over this year. So what? Does anyone really think we don't need oil & gas and that traditional energy is dead?

If any pension manager, mutual fund manager or hedge fund manager told me that, I'd fire them on the spot.

Importantly, there are incredible deals in the energy sector right now which in large part are due to the froth and misinformation being spread by ESG funds snapping up tech stocks and ignoring traditional energy companies.

Sure, ESG funds have outperformed over the last five years but I submit to you a big reason why is because they're loaded to the gills on tech stocks! No, it's not the only reason but a lot of these ESG funds are so full of crap and they're peddling nonsense to unsuspecting investors.

There is an ESG mania going on out there and millennials are lapping it up hook, line and sinker.

Meanwhile, as traditional energy companies sink lower and lower in price, their valuations over the long run become a lot more compelling and I suspect once they cut cap-ex, their share prices will take off and explode up.

So, while I caution my friends who are loading up on Exxon (XOM) and Enbridge (ENB) right now that there could be more short-term pain, longer term, their investment could pay off.

And guess what? Pensions like CPP Investments which have a long investment horizon are thinking the exact same thing, they don't want to chase FAANG stocks at these ridiculous levels, they want to diversify and find compelling long-term investments across all sectors. That's their job, their fiduciary duty.

Is the Canada Climate Law Initiative right that CPP Investments lost money in energy across public and private markets? Yes but so what? They probably got involved with large private equity funds which got into fracking at the wrong time. It happens, they're not perfect at timing markets, nobody is.

Lastly, and most importantly, I do not give a damn if the federal government has committed to net-zero emissions by 2050 (good luck). This doesn't mean our large public pensions which by the way have been much more successful at lowering their carbon footprint than the federal government should be influenced in any way by our governments.

Obviously they are to a large extent because the entire world is going carbon neutral so if Amazon has set lofty goals to reduce its carbon footprint, you can bet our large pensions investing for the long run are paying attention!

But I don't want our governments -- federal or provincial -- to dictate what CPP Investments or any of our large public pensions can and can't invest in, that's a surefire recipe for disaster.

Oh, a final thought, as I discussed in my comment on the rise of constructive capital, I agree with a friend of mine, the most important thing we can do to combat climate change over the long run is close coal plants for good and switch over to nuclear power:


Of course, nobody wants to discuss the "nuclear option" even though it's really the best thing we can do over the long run.

That same friend told me something else: "Even if everyone in the world sold their cars to buy Teslas, we don't have the capacity to provide electricity to all these electric vehicles without burning more coal."

What else? He's not sold on wind farms: "They're heavily subsidized but if you talk to big hydro companies, they create all sorts of problems with electricity uptake and dams."

Alright, I'd better stop there, rambling on way too much. 

Suffice to say, I completely disagree with the Canada Climate Law Initiative's stance on this issue and I suggest they reach out to CPP Investments this October as it is holding virtual public meetings to provide an update on the CPP Fund’s performance and answer questions. Register for your region’s meeting here.

Below, after strong rhetoric from OPEC about compliance, the energy sector is one of the least favorable sectors lately. Boris Schlossberg and Bill Baruch share their views on CNBC. 

Also, Ted Mayer of Natixis was kind enough to share with me the webcast panel discussion on investing with a purpose. You can view it here. Take the time to watch this and you will learn exactly how and why all of Canada's large pensions take climate risk and sustainable investing very seriously

Update: I reached out to Michel Leduc, Senior Managing Director and Global Head of Public Affairs and Communications at CPP Investments to get their views on my comment and he shared this with me:

On these matters, we respect the legitimate act of people disagreeing with some of our investments. So, by choice, we always begin with finding common ground. There is always something to agree with. We agree that climate change is real, serious and happening now. We also agree about investing in the renewable sector. It is the smart thing to do. Like every other sector, we need to select opportunities carefully. Yet, we have found excellent renewable energy assets to add to the portfolio, achieving meaningful exposures in a relatively short period of time thanks to an exceptional internal team of experts. 

We disagree that divestment is a good option. We believe that a challenge of this global scope requires everything in our toolkit: understanding the forces of change such as technology & innovation; global, national and sub-national policies that will affect the pace of the evolution; and household/corporate purchasing trends. All this data and insights to help us shape our portfolio in step with the evolution from traditional to renewable sources over the next decades. Importantly, some of significant oil & gas companies are among powerful forces, as agents of change, because they have the financial incentives/motives; technical know-how and capital to be instrumental players and integral to the evolution taking place. Starving them of capital takes out a critical part of the toolkit. As noted, every part of the toolkit has a role to play on this. Then, there is the value of engagement influence by strong knowledgeable investors. If not us, then who? 

 Divestment simply does not work. In fact, it is counter-productive to the very cause of the authors.

I thank Michel for sharing this and it is stated very clearly why divesting from fossil fuels isn't a good option.

Also, Sam Boskey contacted me to tell me that i usually you speak respectfully of others with contrary opinions:and that I shouldn't stoop down to criticize "tree-hugging granolas, holier-than- thou sanctimonious nonsense from environmental zealots who think they know more about pension investments than me or the folks at CPP Investments.

Fair enough, perhaps I'm a little harsh and can tone it down but I'm truly exasperated reading the barrage of negative comments which are misinforming people and not taking everything CPP Investments and other large Canadian pensions are doing to address climate change and to continue delivering excellent returns.

Sam also shared this:

I would merely point out, when you say: "I hate cigarettes but as long as governments haven't made it illegal, why are we telling our public pensions struggling to find yield what they can and can't invest in?", you say that anything which is legal is legitimate. A rather strange concept, especially when you can float "ESG" off your tongue like caramel custard. 

What is legal depends very much - and I am talking as a former legislator - on social pressures put on the legislators. It is the role of all citizens and moral persons (corporations) to act to create a better world. The largest of pension investors are not exempt. 

The pension funds -and those who are their beneficiaries and those who are the "beneficiaries" of their corporate activities - should not exercise the lack of social responsibility of a three-year-old. "Maximize returns without taking undue risks", your mantra, should include both risks to the environment and to social cohesion.

First, it was my friend, not me, who made the point on cigarettes. I actually don't like the concept of divesting but agreed with Dr. Bronwyn King that it's futile engaging with Big Tobacco, it won't change the outcome. Still, others think that pensions are struggling with enough and they should be allowed to invest anywhere they see fit, as long as it's legal.

On Sam's second point, as I stated above and as Michel Leduc states very eloquently, pensions are very much acting like good citizens and are taking the lead to push on transformative changes in all their public and private companies because they realize ESG investing makes good long-term sense and adds to the bottom line.

However, pensions need to carefully evaluate each investment on its own merits and blindly divesting out of fossil fuel investments not only runs against their fiduciary responsibility, it's also counter-productive to the very cause environmental groups are advocating for,

New Jersey Hits The Pension Brick Wall

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David Draine of The Pew Charitable Trusts reports that New Jersey will make the largest pension contribution in state history: 

New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy (D) and lawmakers have agreed on a plan to make the largest public pension contribution in the state’s history, moving to ensure the solvency of a chronically underfunded system at a time of great economic uncertainty.

Under the plan, the state will make a $4.7 billion payment before the next budget year ends June 30, 2021. Policymakers approved the pension contribution as part of the fiscal year 2021 budget adopted Sept. 24. Murphy signed the measure Sept. 29, just before the Oct. 1 start of the new fiscal year.  New Jersey pushed out the end of fiscal 2020 from June 30 to Sept. 30 as it navigated the impact of revenue fluctuations caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.  

New Jersey’s commitment to its worker retirement fund is unusual in a year in which the rapid spread of the novel coronavirus triggered a recession that has sharply reduced government revenues nationwide. In response, some states have delayed or reduced pension system contributions to help plug budget gaps.

Murphy said he will rely on a combination of spending cuts, tax increases, and borrowing to cover a $6 billion state budget shortfalland will keep his pledge to boost pension payments.

Research by The Pew Charitable Trusts shows that New Jersey’s defined benefit pension system for government workers has long been among the worst funded in the country. Pew has also advocated for pension stress tests, which New Jersey has used in recent years to help assess how the system would perform under different economic scenarios. 


 

The system’s underfunding issues had been building for years. Between 2000 and 2017 the state made less than 25% of its annual required contributions, falling short of system needs by over $30 billion over that time. To address the underfunding, lawmakers first enacted substantial reforms in 2011 and, after some setbacks, recommitted to working toward making the full actuarially recommended contribution starting in 2017. The 2021 planned payment represents the fifth consecutive increase since 2017 and is a significant jump from the $3.9 billion contributed in fiscal 2020.

Twenty years ago, New Jersey’s pension plans were more than 100% funded, and leaders decided to increase worker pension benefits while reducing state contributions. In 2005, New Jersey made only 5% of its required contribution, but the system was still close to 80% funded. By 2015, the funded ratio—the value of plan assets in proportion to pension liabilities—had fallen to 47%. The available assets would cover just eight years of benefits. As of 2018, New Jersey ranked last among states with only 38% of assets on hand to pay for promised benefits.

This year, revenue declines related to the pandemic created new spending pressures that made a big increase in pension contributions—as a share of a $40 billion state budget—especially challenging. But the governor and legislative leaders found the stress test data convincing and agreed to increase contributions despite a recession.

Stress testing uses a rigorous simulation technique that provides the comprehensive data and analysis needed to make such difficult decisions. This approach can help policymakers prepare for the effects of adverse conditions on pension balance sheets and government budgets. The findings also can be used to evaluate reform proposals and provide early warnings if more actions are needed.

New Jersey enacted its stress testing requirement in 2018 and is now one of 12 states with such a law. Policymakers in Trenton have worked to obtain the needed financial data to ensure they are better funding their plans. Although the state has lagged others in managing its pension system, it was among the first to adopt stress testing.

Pew published a stress test of 10 state pension systems, including New Jersey’s, in 2018. The analysis found that an economic crisis could deplete plan assets unless policymakers rigidly adhered to their updated funding policies. The testing showed that New Jersey was at a greater risk of insolvency than any other state and that hitting that point could increase costs by more than $4 billion annually.

This year, the state actuary produced timely projections that assessed the impact of COVID-19 on pension plan balance sheets. In addition, Pew provided an independent stress test analysis to Senate President Stephen Sweeney (D) and then to state policymakers. The results of that analysis, which included a new framework to account for the economic impact of the pandemic on state finances and pension investments, indicated the $4.7 billion payment was only slightly over the minimum contribution required to protect against fiscal distress. The full payment illustrates New Jersey’s fiscal discipline as well as leaders’ commitment to pensioners and stabilizing the state pension systems.

The stress test results had been clear. Despite the fiscal challenges, New Jersey could not postpone or reduce pension contributions without risking collapse of the retirement system. For other states facing unprecedented budget challenges in the year ahead, New Jersey’s approach demonstrates how policymakers can commit to maintaining fiscal discipline and rely on nonpartisan, data-driven analysis to point the way.

New Jersey's massive pension contribution doesn't come as a surprise to those of us who have been tracking the dismal state of many US state pensions.

The experts at The Pew Charitable Trusts are reminding us once again that US public pensions are in deep trouble and in this case, one of the most vulnerable ones is being thrown a lifeline.

It's not like New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy (D) doesn't have better use for that $4.7 billion, especially in the middle of a pandemic. 

He obviously does but New Jersey lawmakers recognize just how precarious the situation is and decided to approve the pension contribution as part of the fiscal year 2021 budget adopted Sept. 24. 

Murphy signed the measure Sept. 29, just before the Oct. 1 start of the new fiscal year.  New Jersey pushed out the end of fiscal 2020 from June 30 to Sept. 30 as it navigated the impact of revenue fluctuations caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.  

What prompted this massive pension contribution in the middle of pandemic? In short, years of neglect where one state government after another neglected to top up its pensions and the chickens have come home to roost:

Twenty years ago, New Jersey’s pension plans were more than 100% funded, and leaders decided to increase worker pension benefits while reducing state contributions. In 2005, New Jersey made only 5% of its required contribution, but the system was still close to 80% funded. By 2015, the funded ratio—the value of plan assets in proportion to pension liabilities—had fallen to 47%. The available assets would cover just eight years of benefits. As of 2018, New Jersey ranked last among states with only 38% of assets on hand to pay for promised benefits.

This year, revenue declines related to the pandemic created new spending pressures that made a big increase in pension contributions—as a share of a $40 billion state budget—especially challenging. But the governor and legislative leaders found the stress test data convincing and agreed to increase contributions despite a recession.

There comes a point where responsible lawmakers cannot ignore their pension liabilities. New Jersey has reached that point.

Remember, in the US, states are constitutionally bound to make their pension payments, if the retirement system goes bust, taxpayers are on the hook.

Even now, they will need to raise taxes in the midst of a pandemic to make this massive pension contribution. Not exactly a politically palatable move but it's either pay up now or pay a lot more in the future.

And it's not just New Jersey. As The Economist reported almost a year ago, America’s public-sector pension schemes are trillions of dollars short:

Perhaps it takes teachers to give politicians a lesson. Any official who wants to understand the terrible state of American public-sector pensions should read the financial report of the Illinois Teachers Pension Fund. Its funding ratio of 40.7% is one of the worst in America, according to the Centre for Retirement Research (CRR) in Boston (see table).

 


Since it was established in 1939, Illinois officials have not once set aside enough money to fund the pension promises made. As a result, three-quarters of the money the state (or rather the taxpayer) now pays in each year merely covers shortfalls from previous years. The situation is getting worse. In 2009 the schemes’ actuaries requested $2.1bn, but only $1.6bn was paid. By 2018 the state paid in $4.2bn, still well short of the $7.1bn the actuaries asked for. the trustees have warned the plan would be"unable to absorb any financial shocks created by a sustained downturn int he markets."

Got that last sentence? Fast forward to March 2020 when markets tanked and long bond rates plunged to new record lows.

Yes, stock markets have rebounded but interest rates remain at record lows and it's the drop in long bond yields which primarily drive pension deficits because the duration of liabilities is a lot bigger than the duration of assets.

And my fear is that long bond yields have yet to make their secular lows, it could get a lot worse for many US state pensions teetering on insolvency.

The folks at The Pew Charitable Trusts better start stress testing a whole pack of state pension plans because my gut is telling me a lot of them are hiding the catastrophic state of their funded status.

New Jersey enacted its stress testing requirement in 2018 and is now one of 12 states with such a law. 

But there are plenty of other states that can't afford rising public pension debt who have yet to adopt such a law and are flirting with disaster. 

Of course, this has been an ongoing issue for decades. The primary driver of state pension deficits is state governments failing to top up their pensions, but that's not the only problem.

In December 2013, I wrote a comment for the New York Times on the need for independent, qualified investment boards:

The main driver of public pension deficits isn't the financial crisis, it's decades of fiscal mismanagement. For years states willfully ignored their pension payments, borrowing money from public pension plans to create the illusion that they were balancing their budget every year.

To keep contributions down, stakeholders of public pension plans, including unions, deluded themselves into believing the pension rate-of-return fantasy -- a fantasy because it is based on the erroneous assumption that public pension funds will be able to attain their 8 percent investment bogey over a sustained period. With interest rates at historic lows, it's clear that discounting future liabilities using such rosy investment assumptions will only make matters worse.

These ridiculous investment targets have led to an even bigger problem, excessive risk taking among U.S. public pension funds that have allocated a large portion of their assets into alternative investments like private equity, real estate and hedge funds. In some cases, this approach is warranted and successful but in most cases, U.S. public pension funds are wasting billions in fees praying for an alternatives miracle that will never happen.

The legislative response to public pension deficits is predictable and shortsighted. Some reforms, like raising the retirement age and using career average earnings for determining pension benefits, are necessary as people are living longer.

Other reforms, however, are silly and promote long held myths on public pensions. In particular, shifting public sector workers into defined-contribution plans shifts retirement risk entirely onto workers, ensuring more pension poverty down the road.

Legislators need to understand that defined-benefit plans are superior to defined-contribution plans, and they must take measures to maintain public pensions and expand defined-benefit coverage to private sector workers. This will actually help reduce fiscal debt in the long-run as retirees earning predictable benefits will spend more money and pay higher taxes.

But there is a caveat to all this. U.S. pension reforms need to incorporate the shared risk model that has worked so well in the Netherlands. This way workers, retirees and plan sponsors will share the risk of the pension plan. Moreover, U.S. pension funds need to incorporate the same governance model that has allowed Canadian public pension funds to flourish. This means adopting independent investment boards that operate at arms-length from the government and compensating public pension fund managers more in line with what private sector fund managers receive.

Until U.S. public plans get the governance right by implementing independent and qualified investment boards and compensating their public pension fund managers properly, all other reforms are cosmetic and do nothing to slay the pension dragon.

It's funny (more like sad), I wrote that comment seven years and nothing has significantly changed. US public pensions are still taking significant risks, they're still clinging to the 8% 7% rate-of-return fantasy, and they still haven't adopted the Canadian governance model to manage more assets internally and a shared risk model to make sure the risk of their plans is equally shared among retired and active members.

This is why earlier this year, I warned my readers that here come US pension bailouts, stating this:

Illinois has mismanaged its public pensions for years and it's beyond outrageous, and quite disgusting actually, that they are using this pandemic as a justification to bail these pensions out.

The sad part of it is pension bailouts are coming. It might not be right away, but it's only a matter of time because many chronically underfunded US public pensions getting slammed hard from coronavirus are one step closer to insolvency.

And remember what I keep telling you, pension bailouts are all about bailing out Wall Street which includes big banks and their big private equity and hedge fund clients that need perpetual funding.

It has nothing to do with bailing out pensioners but politicians will make it look that way.

Again, it may not be right away, but mark my words, Congress will eventually bail out many chronically underfunded pensions and the Fed and Treasury will just monetize this debt.

The problem? Just like keeping zombie companies alive, they will keep zombie pensions alive to make sure the elite on Wall Street are able to keep tapping them in perpetuity for their next fund.

And then we wonder why after every major crisis, inequality keeps soaring to unprecedented levels.

George Carlin was right: "It's a big club, and you ain't in it. You and I are not part of the big club."

We certainly aren't part of the big club. Ray Dalio is but even he doesn't understand what truly ails capitalism (or he does and doesn't want to rock the boat).

Here's some more food for thought for all of you on capitalism. The Fed increases its balance sheet by $3 trillion in response to the pandemic, Congress approves trillions in fiscal aid, and you really think they're going to let public pensions go belly up?

Come on folks, you all need to read C. Wright Mills' classic, The Power Elite

The game is rigged. The power elite making all the decisions in the background are run by billionaires who have too much vested interests in US state pensions, it's their perpetual funding machines.

Alright, better wrap it up, I'm sounding too damn cynical even for my own liking.

Below, Steve Adubato goes on-location to the 2019 NJEA Convention in Atlantic City to talk to Steve Swetsky, Executive Director, New Jersey Education Association, to discuss his vision for the future of NJEA and the state of public pensions (February).

And New Jersey residents earning more than $1 million a year will face higher income taxes, and about 800,000 lower- and middle-income families will get a tax rebate of up to $500 under a deal Gov. Phil Murphy and legislative leaders recently announced.

Lastly, a conversation I had with Ed Harrison of Real Vision earlier this year on the fate of underfunded US state pensions. Not my best interview, COVID haircut and all, but I think I got the main points across.

An October Stimulus Surprise?

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Eustance Huang and Pippa Stevens of CNBC report stocks fall following Trump’s positive virus test, but close off the worst levels on stimulus hopes:

U.S. stocks fell in volatile trading on Friday after President Donald Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis fueled concerns about the election and a worsening pandemic.

Major averages clawed back some of the steep losses after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi signaled aid for the airline industry could be coming soon, perhaps even as part of a much-anticipated broad relief bill.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 134.09 points, or 0.5%, lower at 27,682.81 after dropping 430 points at its session low. The S&P 500 slid 1.0%, or 32.36 points, to 3,248.44 after falling as much as 1.7% earlier. The Nasdaq Composite declined 2.2%, or 251.49 points, to 11,075.02.

Shares of airlines jumped higher in unison after Pelosi called on the industry to delay furloughs, saying relief for airline workers is “imminent.” American Airlines and United erased earlier losses and popped 3.3% and 2.4%, respectively.

“We will either enact Chairman DeFazio’s bipartisan stand-alone legislation or achieve this as part of a comprehensive negotiated relief bill, extending for another six months the Payroll Support Program,” Pelosi said in a statement.

Earlier Friday, Pelosi said Trump’s illness changed the dynamic of stimulus talks, adding lawmakers will find the “middle ground” and will “get the job done.” The House passed the $2.2 trillion Democratic coronavirus stimulus bill Thursday night, while Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has offered a $1.6 trillion package. 

Still, the president’s diagnosis added more uncertainty to the election, an event that was already weighing on the market and keeping traders on edge as they attempted to evaluate the possible outcomes. It also raised concerns about a second wave of the virus and a slower reopening.

White House physician Dr. Sean Conley said in a memo, “The President and First Lady are both well at this time, and they plan to remain at home within the White House during their convalescence.”

Conley also said he expects Trump to “continue carrying out his duties without disruption while recovering.”

White House chief of staff Mark Meadows said Friday Trump was having “mild” symptoms after testing positive for the virus and that he and Melania are in “good spirits.”

The Trump campaign announced that all events involving the president’s participation are going virtual or being temporarily postponed.

Vice President Mike Pence and second lady Karen Pence have both tested negative for the coronavirus, Pence’s spokesman said Friday. Mnuchin has also tested negative, the Treasury’s assistant secretary for public affairs said Friday.

“This October surprise raises the already high level of political uncertainty markets are dealing with as Election Day approaches,” said Jeff Buchbinder, equity strategist at LPL Financial. “Markets appear to be increasingly pricing Joe Biden in as the favorite, and this news may not change that, but Trump could gain support from a quick recovery.”

The Trump tweet initially knocked down Dow futures more than 500 points in overnight trading.

 

“It really brings into stark reality that we are potentially going into … a second wave,” said Jeff Henriksen, co-founder and CEO of Thorpe Abbotts Capital, to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.” “President Trump getting this really highlights that in a way that I think it will focus attention back on the virus and the effects it will have.”

Technology shares led the declines on Friday with Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Facebook all losing more than 2.5%. Tech stocks could come under pressure under a Democratic sweep scenario if it leads to higher tax rates and tighter regulations, many strategists have said. Investors also could rotate out of technology shares and into more cyclical stocks if a stimulus is passed.

Also weighing on the sentiment was a worse-than-expected September jobs report. Nonfarm payroll rose by 661,000 in September, the Labor Department said Friday in the final jobs report before the November election. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected a jobs gain of 800,000. The unemployment rate fell to 7.9% last month.

 


The sell-off in oil prices intensified as Trump’s coronavirus news added to the industry’s demand concerns. West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. oil benchmark, slid 4.3% to $37.05 per barrel on Friday.

Some on Wall Street said the markets overreacted to Trump’s medical condition.

“Investors should not panic over the news,” Sean Darby, global equity strategist at Jefferies, said in a note. “It was a tail risk since other global leaders have contracted the virus, but the forthcoming US election should not be delayed in any way... 2020 has seen many 2, 3, and even 4 sigma events, and this political tail risk is by no means as big.”

Stocks have staged a historic rebound since the economic shutdown sent stocks tumbling in March. But the major averages all finished September lower, snapping a five-month win streak, as doubts emerge about the pace and breadth of the recovery.

Alright, it's Friday, time to cover markets and after a long day, there is a lot to cover.

First, let me begin with some good news on the much anticipated stimulus package.

After reading Pelosi's comments this afternoon, I'm predicting an announcement on a new stimulus package will come on Sunday morning or evening, right on time to pump markets up on Monday:

The market desperately wants more fiscal stimulus, especially after this morning's less-than-stellar US jobs report:

I have to agree with David Rosenberg, right now, stimulus hopes are keeping confidence levels high but this jobs report tells us the V-shaped stock market recovery isn't translating into a V-shaped economic recovery, and that's not good news.

I also agree with Liz Ann Sonders who is a fantastic market and economic commentator, the rise in permanent job losses and dip in the labor force participation rate while unemployment fell to 7.9% tells you there's something troubling going on, more people falling through the cracks, especially women, and joining the ranks of permanently unemployed.

That's why Pelosi called airline executives to delay furloughs, saying more relief is "imminent".

In short, mounting permanent job losses aren't positive for any economy and without relief, there will be big trouble ahead for stocks which have ridden the fiscal and monetary wave up as far as possible.

Last week, I warned my readers to prepare for rough markets ahead, citing worries about emerging markets and fears of a European banking crisis.

This week, I'm a little more hopeful that US policymakers will finally provide the much awaited second round of fiscal stimulus and that markets can regain their footing, at least in the short run.

Earlier today, Martin Roberge of Canacord Gennuity sent me his weekly market wrap-up, The Relief Rebound, where he states:

Following four negative weeks in a row, odds were skewed for stocks to rebound this week and that is exactly what we got. Resumption of the uptrend or just a bounce? Hard to say. There is not much better clarity this week on the US coronavirus stimulus bill, which seems to be a much-awaited catalyst to jolt stocks again. Also, overnight, we learned that President Trump and the First Lady tested positive for COVID-19 and were beginning their quarantine process. Some are comparing this situation to the JFK death in November 1963 and the Eisenhower heart attack in September 1955. We were not born then so it is difficult for us to discuss the analogy, but in both episodes the stock market pullbacks proved to be buying opportunities. Otherwise, economic data this week (more below) continue to suggest that a growth lull seems a high-probability scenario in Q4. As a result, risk-on commodities such as oil (~-7%) and copper (~-1%) had a rough week. Conversely, gold has risen and reclaimed the $1,900/oz level. 

As we highlighted in the October 2020 edition of the Quantitative Strategist published yesterday, we believe investors should not fear a pending growth lull. Such a softening, in our view, would not be different from what we normally observe through a post-recession recovery. With the OECD LEI diffusion index standing at 97%, a synchronized global recovery is underway. While there are question marks regarding the contribution from some service sectors given the COVID-19 second waves, global manufacturing activity should remain vibrant owing to forceful Chinese reflation/spending and the need for businesses to replenish inventories which were depleted in Q2 and Q3. The latter should boost demand for raw materials and other primary goods. Accordingly, our sector strategy is heavily tilted toward deep cyclicals and away from interest-sensitives and defensive yielders. As Chart of the Week shows, the relative performance of deep cyclicals has yet to play catch-up with the surge in the spread between ISM new orders and costumer inventories, and recent US$ depreciation.


Interestingly, apart from a synchronized global recovery which may be underway, no matter who wins the elections, there is more chatter of a major infrastructure bill, so it is possible that materials (XME) and Industrials (XLI) continue doing well:



That remains to be seen. In the meantime, I'm keeping my eye on energy (XLE) shares which continue to get hammered:


For the week, here are how the major S&P sectors performed:


As you can see, Real Estate (XLRE), Utilities (XLU) and Financials (XLF) performed the best while Energy was the only loser, declining 3%.

One real estate stock that caught my attention this week was Brookfield properties (BPY):


Recall, I recently wrote a comment on the looming real estate liquidity crunch where I wrote :"... it remains to be seen if they will continue paying that big fat dividend of 12.4% (unlikely but they are cash rich and can borrow for nothing to keep paying it out, and besides, even if they cut it in half, it's still a nice divvy!)."

I guess someone was paying attention!!

Now, it's not all green lights ahead, there are different opinions out there:

That last comment caught my attention and it ends with an ominous warning:

And, in a parallel report, BofA's Barnaby Martin rhetorically asks "why are markets lacking their usual mojo lately?" and answers:

Because it's been hard for policy makers to keep up with the sheer quantum of support unleashed earlier in the crisis. Between March and June this year, there were 109 (net) rate cuts by central banks…the last 3m have seen just 22. March '20 saw more than 1200 policy measures announced globally… but August '20 saw just 273. And while G6 central bank balance sheet growth surged $4.2tr in Q2, the growth rate is forecast to be a "meager" $1.25tr this quarter.

In short, the fact that central banks are slowing down their interventions dramatically means that the only thing that could spark a fresh burst higher in risk assets is, paradoxically, another major crisis which forces the Fed to intervene even more aggressively.

Luckily, if there is one thing the world does not have a shortage of right now, it is potential crisis powder kegs and it's only a matter of time before one or more explode.

What crisis could possibly force the Fed to intervene more aggressively? Who knows? Some emerging markets make me nervous and so do European banks but for now, all is calm.

As far as stocks, here are the biggest large cap gainers this week:

 


I already mentioned Brookfield Properties (BPY) above, but there are others that caught my attention like Paycom (PAYC),  Quidel (QDEL) and Twilio (TWLO).

What else? This tweet by Bespoke on Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY) also caught my attention:

On the macro front, James Perry, SVP & Partner at Arbor Research, posted this on LinkedIn earlier today:

If you can't read it, here is what he posted: 

We really should be golfing by now.  But before we go… 

  • The Dollar (DXY) is down -2.74% this year. 
  • The S&P 500 (SPX) is up +4% this year. 
  • The Treasury 10y Note Future (TY1) is up +8.74% this year. 
  • Gold (GC1) is up +25% this year. 
  • Oil (CL1) is down -39.5% 
  • Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is up +30.4% this year. 

--------------------- 

This is the logical outcome one would expect to a world in which: 

  • The economy faces an unexpected, massive, and extremely-negative demand-shock. 
  • A shock to which, the government response is an enormous monetary & fiscal stimulus package. 
  • Stimulus which predominantly remains in the financial system. 
  • And all costs of doing all business must be slashed - just to remain operational. 

So? Yes.

  • A substantially slower economy, which is deflating…
  • An extremely liquid, & leveraged, financial system, and… 
  • An acceleration of service-sector, digital-transformation. Adjust portfolio accordingly.

I think he's right but I'm actually bullish on the greenback going forward because in relative terms, I think the US is in better shape than Europe and even Asia.

As far as an extremely liquid and leveraged financial system, there some improvement in sentiment from US leveraged loans portfolio managers which is worth noting:

Lastly, have to agree with George Stephanopoulos, this was THE worst presidential debate ever! Neither candidate impressed me, they didn’t lay out their respective plans and didn’t discuss important topics in-depth. It was an unmitigated disaster and quite frankly, a huge waste of time watching it:

Let's hope we never, ever see anything like this debate ever again the future, it was shameful on both sides.

By the way, those of you who think it's a cake walk for Biden to win, don't be so sure, I think there is a huge percentage of American voters who will quietly cast their ballot for Trump again. 

But that's a November surprise and we're not there yet.

And since it's Friday, don't know if this is real but watching this twit made me laugh earlier:

Below, nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase by 800,000 in September, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The unemployment rate was expected to fall to 8.2%. Kate Moore of BlackRock, Jason Furman of Harvard's Kennedy School, Michael Strain of the American Enterprise Institute and Lisa Cook of Michigan State join CNBC's "Squawk Box" team to discuss.

Second, CNBC's Ylan Mui reports the House is currently working on a relief bill to help the airline industry. Speaker House Nancy Pelosi issued a statement asking major airlines to hold off on furloughs.

Congressman Steny Hoyer said the House will not leave for break as the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin work together to pass a second stimulus bill. CNBC's Ylan Mui joins 'Fast Money Halftime Report' to discuss.

Degas Wright from Decatur Capital also joins 'Fast Money Halftime Report' to talk about the need for a second stimulus bill and the impact it would have on markets and the economy.

Earlier this week, CNBC's Steve Liesman talked with Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan about monetary policy amid the recession, due to the coronavirus pandemic, and what needs to happen to stabilize an economic recovery. Kaplan worries rates at zero will push investors out on risk curve.

Lastly, I posted two of my favorite CNBC interviews this week, one with Chamath Palihapitiya, and the other with Jonathan Webb, founder and CEO of AppHarvest, and Martha Stewart, founder of Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia. Love the energy of that agricultural CEO!!

CDPQ's at the Fringe Man?

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Institutional Investor recently interviewedMario Therrien, Head of Investment Funds and External Management at CDPQ, on why he's looking beyond the fringe:

Mario Therrien says he works “at the fringe” of CDPQ (the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec), the Montreal based long-term institutional investor that manages funds primarily for public and parapublic pension and insurance plans, where he is Head of Investment Funds and External Management.

CDPQ, which was created in 1965 and held CAD 333.0 billion in net assets (as at June 30, 2020), is a leading example of the “Canadian model” of institutional investing. The vast majority of CDPQ’s investments are made directly in markets, while the rest is done using external fund managers. Therrien coordinates those external relationships: His sleeve oversees some C$45 billion in assets and a network of 140 general partners. Although he’s “always building at the fringe,” that’s a part of the portfolio that brings access to new markets and strategies.

CDPQ always has an eye out for the new. “We invest in all asset classes from private to public. We’ve been investing in most of the large markets, both developed and emerging, and we have made a solid push in illiquid investments in infrastructure, private equity, real estate, capital solutions,” he says. At this point, he explains, “Close to one third (of AUM) is in public market equities, and then we have investments in private markets, and after that, we have everything that’s in fixed income. Fixed income is a blend of private credit, private debt and sovereign debt. And then there’s real estate, which is a balance of the asset allocation. There’s infrastructure as well – it’s an interesting asset class for a long-term investor like CDPQ.”

The asset allocation is on a journey, he says. “In both private and public markets, we have changed the focus of our portfolio from Canada to the entire world including emerging markets. And if you were to take a picture of our portfolio 10 years ago, we had a bigger weight in Canadian public stocks – we’ve really increased our diversification there, and we’ve been increasing private markets over the years.”

Therrien’s fringe plays several important roles. While in-house management may be cost-effective for big, relatively straightforward asset classes, to get the icing on the cake, it’s useful to go to outside specialists. For example, Therrien says. “Our view has been that smaller, niche markets might be less efficient than well-covered markets. We’ve done more at first in emerging markets through external funds. We did not have the capacity and the resources back then to pick and select stocks in China, India, and Brazil: These markets were less covered by analysts.” So, external managers provided a way in to capture alpha.

Besides offering expertise in various markets, external managers can deploy specialized techniques. For example, as CDPQ has focused more on capturing risk premia, he says, “Our first approach was to better understand them and see how we can use them in our analysis of our portfolio, and our partners allow us to get up to speed faster.”

Similarly, he says, “We do portable alpha, and for that we use hedge funds. Hedge funds are not an asset class; they’re an active strategy that you can port on the total portfolio. The way we select some fund managers and their strategies, we can port them on an asset class, with a marginal increase of the risk.”

External managers also serve as a sounding board. Therrien says, “We have conference calls with CIOs discussing the current environment, and what are the things at the margins that might be profitable. Whenever there’s volatility or market turmoil, there’s always a group of solid managers you can rely on to help guide yourself in this environment.”

For all of this good stuff to happen, of course, “You need to find the right managers.” Therrien says CDPQ is not necessarily always looking for pioneers and innovators, he says. “Oftentimes, good results are more about being able to capture opportunities than being creative.” He adds, “Another aspect of being successful is for an active manager to really share our time horizon: One of the advantages we have is being a long-term investor. And most of our managers are long-term managers, so I think that has been giving us a bit of an edge.”

Some institutions have rules of thumb – never hire a manager if there’s a Ferrari in is parking lot, or he or she is getting divorced or buying a baseball team. But Therrien eschews any such shorthand and relies on CDPQ shoe leather in picking managers. “We hit the road to find the best managers that can help us think through markets.” Therrien says, “The way our process works is we try to accumulate a series of facts and bringing these facts to life over time.”  

In order to optimize the manager selection process, he says, “what we’ve done recently is we reunited all of the teams that were working on external funds from different asset classes. Moreover, he adds, “By bringing under one roof the oversight of external fund managers, we really see the benefits of being one team dedicated to manager selection and performance analysis. We’re able to have a more holistic view and exploit investment themes more effectively.” He adds, “I would stress being associated with the right partners has been of tremendous value. So, we spend a lot of time thinking about, “Who do we team up within the ecosystem we’re going into?”

CDPQ is likely to tap some additional managers as it looks to its future directions. For example, he says, “One area where we’re doing a lot of work is capital solutions. There’s a lot of opportunities there. It’s not private equity; it’s not fixed income; it’s an hybrid.” Meanwhile, “In public markets we’re looking at opportunities in tech, and healthcare has been an area where we’ve done surveillance of who’s doing what.” Many of these initiatives will be done in house, but he suggests some will rely, with the right conditions, on outside specialized managers.

Therrien grew up in Richmond and Sherbrooke, both in Quebec. He recalls, “One of my first summer jobs when I was 16 was at a local pulp and paper company. This was a public company, so my father started explaining to me that I could buy a portion of that company, and I really got interested from the get-go. I was receiving financial statements every year, and my interest just grew.”

After earning a BA and MSc in finance and economics from the University of Sherbrooke, in 1992, he says, “I went straight to CDPQ.” Actually, one of his professors wanted him to take an internship there to work on a derivatives project. As Therrien recalls, the professor told Therrien to call him, so “I went to a phone booth – in those days there were phone booths – and he said, ‘Come in tomorrow.’ I had no dress shirts, no suits, no tie. So, I called my mother, and we bought a shirt, a green suit, and a green tie. While it’s not clear whether it’s ‘because of’ or ‘in spite of’ this sea of green outfit, he says, CDPQ “hired me for four months to do a research on derivative pricing models, and after that, they offered me an intern job for a year to continue what I’d started, and then I became an analyst.”

He’s been full-time since 1993, so it seems to have worked out. Meanwhile, Therrien got married in 2010 and had a son a year later. The family “has a house and a place in the country. It’s a good life; a balanced life.” Part of that balance includes fly fishing. “I love it. We have some very nice rivers here.” He’s also an avid bike rider and reader: “I read biographies; I read a lot of leadership books; I like the history of finance. I would like to design a course around the history of finance. There’s so much one can learn from history. That’s why for him, Lords of Finance that he recently read Liaquat Ahamed’s chronicle of events leading up to the Great Depression “a great book.” An intense reader, he says, “My books are full of notes and highlighted passages.”

In addition to his duties at CDPQ, he has been an active member of the Standard Board for Alternative Investments (SBAI), which used to be the Hedge Fund Standards Board,” and in 2020, he became its chairman. He explains, “I think the Board is really important. It’s making our ecosystem a better place to invest in and making standards for the things we espouse as investors. Being able to contribute a lot more to how we craft and design our industry is not something I can let go of. It’s kind of a neutral bond that brings together the best standards of investing.”

This was an excellent interview with my former boss at CDPQ and exactly what I want to cover on a Monday afternoon after a long weekend and day rushing to finishing a report where I examined in depth the asset mixes and investment operations at CPP Investments, OTPP, HOOPP, and a couple of others (don't ask).

Anyway, Mario and I go back years. He and Yves Moquin hired me back at the Caisse in 2002 when I was an economist at the National Bank and took me out of my miseries of doing repetitive economic and market comments (it wasn't that bad, learned a lot working with Clément Gignac, Stéfane Marion, Vincent Lepine and Martin Roberge and enjoyed my time there).

At the Caisse, I was in charge of monitoring the directional portfolio, or as I called it back then, the problem portfolio. We basically had two portfolios, multi-strategy and relative value funds where we invested with top funds - Citadel, SAC Capital, Millenium and other high caliber funds --  and then we had the directional fund which was full of private equity crap when I got it and some decent but not so great L/S Equity funds.

Anyway, to make a long story short, I really enjoyed that job even if I was a total novice at fund investing. I learned quickly about due diligence -- operational, risk management and investment DD (my favorite) -- and moved quickly to rejig that portfolio under Mario's watch and populate it with top L/S Equity funds, CTAs, global macros and short sellers.

Just to give you an example, when I was there, we invested with Bridgewater early on (thank you McGill Capital), Winton Capital, Viking Global and other top funds. I personally got to meet guys like Andreas Halvorsen who was extremely impressive and other less well known managers who were smart as hell.

It was the heyday of hedge funds, we were a small team getting approached by everyone looking for an allocation. Looking back now, it was a bit nuts.

I traveled a few times with Mario and enjoyed our trips. Well, one of them in London was a disaster for me as I had a cappuccino with Mario right after we landed in the morning and something in that coffee made me sick as a dog. I had four onsite office visits that day and each time I arrived, I asked them to use their loo (till this day, I never travel anywhere without Imodium quick dissolve tablets).

But another trip meeting to Geneva and Madrid will go down as one of my best trips ever. Mario and I met up with Ravi and Jesus, the two managers of Vega Asset managers in Geneva where they were doing their annual medical checkup (the ultra wealthy aren't like you and me). We were at some silly hedge fund conference and then met up with them for dinner at a winery outside the city.

That dinner alone was worth the trip as we shared great food and wine and talked all night about markets and life (great guys).

We then went to Madrid to see Vega's operations and boy did love that city, everything about it is just perfect (the people, the architecture, the food, you name it).

To make a long story short, we ended up allocating to Vega Asset Management but I cut the initial allocation in half because I disagreed with their main view that rates were going to back up significantly. They ran a sophisticated trading operation, tight risk management, were incredible at marketing themselves but the rise and fall of Vega Asset Management will go down in the hedge fund history books (I'm pretty sure they're still around). 

Like I said, I learned a lot investing with and interacting with top hedge fund managers but truth be told, I was sick of the traveling and the constant badgering from all these lesser known hedge fund managers looking for an allocation.

I was also sick of hedge fund managers giving me poor excuses when they underperformed and took my job seriously, grilled them hard even if they were doing well (Mario was with me on some of these meetings, he can vouch for that).

The thing that really pissed me off was operational screw-ups, like when we wanted to move from a high vol CTA strategy to a low vol one and for two weeks, we didn't know where the money was. The manager kept telling me to talk to the administrator and after a couple of phone calls, I basically ripped him a new one and told him if he doesn't fix the problem and give us back returns we lost, we are out.

Investing with external hedge funds isn't always as easy as it sounds. It's not like investing in top private equity funds, you can get smacked from all sides. 

Mario Therrien knows this better than anyone. He and Ron Mock have literally traveled the globe meeting great (and not so great) hedge fund managers.

My own views on hedge funds have drastically changed over the last 15 years. I still think most institutional investors don't have a clue of what they're doing, they don't have the right dedicated teams to invest in hedge funds and the results are pitiful.

Even in Canada, CPP Investments and OTPP are the top hedge fund allocators by far and they've taken their lumps some years.

Trust me, it's not easy, even when you're investing with top funds.

Over the years, Mario graduated from being in charge of hedge funds to being in charge of partnerships:

Mario Therrien leads CDPQ’s investment funds activities. The teams he oversees invest in private investment funds and credit in private markets, as well as in venture capital in Québec and internationally. They are also responsible for external management in equity markets, as well as developing and managing strategic and institutional relationships. His mandate consists of adding value by building portfolios with the best external managers, while improving in-house management through the sharing of knowledge and expertise. He sits on the Investment-Risk Committee.

Prior to this role, Mr. Therrien was Senior Managing Director and Head of Strategic Partnerships, Developed Markets. He joined CDPQ in 1993 as an Analyst before taking on the role of Portfolio Manager in the group responsible for absolute return activities. Subsequently, he was mandated to develop external management activities in liquid-asset classes.

He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Economics and a Master’s degree in Finance from Université de Sherbrooke. He has also completed the Canadian Securities Course given by the Canadian Securities Institute, and is a CFA charter holder. 

CONNECTIONS

Mr. Therrien is a member of the Montreal CFA Society and Chairman of the Standards Board for Alternative Investments (SBAI). The SBAI consists of investors and managers who act as custodians of the best practice standards for the hedge fund industry, pursuant to the recommendations published by the Hedge Fund Working Group in 2008.

What does all this mean in practice? It means Mario is the Chief Investment Schmoozer at CDPQ and he and his team literally have to meet and know everyone worth meeting all over the world.

But above and beyond developing relationships with external partnerships, his team needs to monitor external managers from various asset classes and be on the lookout for interesting ideas that fall between the cracks. 

As the article above states:

CDPQ is likely to tap some additional managers as it looks to its future directions. For example, he says, “One area where we’re doing a lot of work is capital solutions. There’s a lot of opportunities there. It’s not private equity; it’s not fixed income; it’s an hybrid.” Meanwhile, “In public markets we’re looking at opportunities in tech, and healthcare has been an area where we’ve done surveillance of who’s doing what.” Many of these initiatives will be done in house, but he suggests some will rely, with the right conditions, on outside specialized managers.

There are plenty of other examples of hybrid investments but keep in mind, a fund the size of CDPQ is looking for scale so it's not going to invest in something just for the hell of it if it doesn't move the needle.

Oh my, I'm getting flashbacks from my days at the Caisse, marketing people from hedge funds calling me up, pestering me with pitches: "Leo, we are opening up our fund to a select group of investors, we'd like you to take advantage of this exciting opportunity."

Most of the time, I wanted to take a shower after meeting and talking these guys. I became very cynical early on about asset gatherers who never aligned their interests with those of their clients.

But that was a lifetime ago, I'm glad Mario Therrien is doing well, enjoying fly fishing with his son Jake who is nine years old now. I'm also glad he still enjoys reading good books and will put Lords of Finance on my reading list.

I'd recommend Mario reads John Kay's Other People's Money as well as Jonathan Tepper's Myth of Capitalism. I enjoyed reading both these books but nothing beats my all-time favorite, Roger Lowenstein's When Genius Failed. That was a classic, even better than Liar's Poker, another great one.

Before I forget, on Sunday, I posted this article on LinkedIn, a story about a Toronto-area family with a child suffering from an ultra-rare disease (SPG50) trying to raise funds for a cure. The family turned to crowdfunding to raise money to pay for gene therapy which scientists believe has the potential to halt the progression the disease and even reverse some of the damage.

The child's father, Terry Pirovolakis, is on a 400-kilometer bike ride from Pickering, Ont., to the nation’s capitol with the goal of meeting the Prime Minister and urging him to contribute to the fundraising efforts.

I'm doing my part in raising awareness and I urge all my readers to kindly donate any amount to help this worthy cause. The link to the family’s GoFundMe page can be found here, as well as a link for Terry’s ride.

Below, an older (2017) interview with Mario Therrien where he discussed the Canadian Pension Model with Ted Seides. Great stuff, listen to this interview.

By the way, Mario doesn't hold the record for the longest tenure at CDPQ, that honor goes to Claude Langevin who literally spent close to 50 years at the Caisse (they even hired him on contract for years after he retired but he's gone for good now).

Lastly, a recent interview with Nathalie Palladitcheff, President and Chief Executive Officer of Ivanhoé Cambridge. Great interview, listen to Ms. Palladitcheff, she discusses a lot here.

OMERS on Culture and the Future of Work

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Satish Rai, Chief Investment Officer at OMERS, recently sat down with Nancy Nazer, Chief Human Resources Officer at OMERS, to discuss how they define culture, how they’re ensuring employees stay connected in a remote work environment and what OMERS is doing to take care of its people during and after the pandemic:  

Blake Hutcheson, CEO of OMERS, has said people are our most important asset. How does the firm define culture?

Gandhi once said, “Culture resides in the hearts and souls of its people.” When we think about a positive workplace culture, it starts with each of us individually. At OMERS and Oxford, our culture is our people. It’s truly a team effort and we are all accountable for it. Culture starts with what people do and how they do it when no one is watching. I have been in HR for two decades across different industries, working to figure out the secret to a great culture and what I’ve found is it’s not just about a clever strategy — it’s about the people. People differentiate good companies from great companies and are our competitive advantage to help sustain and grow our business and make our pension promise possible. So, as we think about our global teams, we have to continue to foster a culture of inclusivity that brings with it a sense of belonging every single day.

How do you continue to foster culture while people are working remotely on a large scale?

We are grounded in the belief that winning culture is formed not only in good times but also preserved in hard times. As we face this unprecedented global health crisis and all of the challenges that come with it, it’s even more important for us to continue to build trust, accountability and transparency among our people. As our world continues to shift as a result of the pandemic, we need to continue thinking about what makes us unique and find ways to stay connected so we can share the various realities and narratives we are going through. It’s important to think about the new activities we can do, and those we must not stop doing, to ensure that connectivity because, again, culture resides within each of us.

What is OMERS approach to working from home post-pandemic?

Ultimately, what it all comes down to is our people and their wellbeing. With that, we want to focus our post-pandemic approach on flexibility and choice. There has been widespread speculation that large-scale remote work is here to stay, but I don’t feel that this is the end of the physical office; just a new normal. There’s a lot of research that supports the notion that we all benefit from some form of social interaction, and while connecting virtually has served its purpose, the office allows for us to feed off the energy and creativity of one another. All of the great work we are undertaking now is helping us better understand how we can possess a safe, positive culture in a hybrid work model going forward.

How is OMERS putting the needs of its people first?

We truly believe our people are our greatest asset, our true differentiator, and we are intent on doing everything we can to support them. To that end, we are launching our new people strategy, which is focused on wellness, inclusion and investing in our people through their growth and development. These are streams that we are going to focus on extensively in the years to come.

Satish Rai: Over the past few weeks I have shared insights from conversations with leaders from across OMERS on the future of work in a post-pandemic world. One constant theme that has stuck out to me is that the traditional office, though it may look different, will still play a critical role in the future. Although it can be agreed that there will be some lasting change from COVID-19, in-person interaction is still needed to build relationships, spark creativity and enhance culture. To that last point, as Nancy pointed out, culture is built through each and every one of us, and the physical office allows for that connectivity to grow. 

I read this comment a couple of weeks ago and kept it on the back burner and reflect on it.

There are things I agree with and others I'm less in agreement with.

First, let me begin with something a friend of mine once told me: "Always remember, HR is NOT your friend".

It's not that HR departments are full of evil people conspiring against you, what my friend was trying to say and rightfully so, HR always looks after the best interests of the organization, that's their job.

Sure, HR is there to support its employees, after all, they are the most important assets of any organization, but at the end of the day don't kid yourselves, HR will always side with upper management and make sure the organization's interests come first.

Now, I don't know Nancy Nazer, Chief Human Resources Officer at OMERS, I'm sure she is very nice, smart and competent and agree with a lot of what she is saying. The reason I started my comment off like that, it's just that I find a lot of the younger employees are very naive when it comes to workplace culture, politics and dynamics.

Ms. Nazer raises a lot of excellent points on culture. It is about people, each and every employee has a responsibility to individually contribute positively to workplace culture.

And yes, people differentiate great companies from bad ones but that's a bit of a generic statement.

Anyone who has worked long enough anywhere knows it only takes one rotten apple to destroy workplace culture. 

It's typically one arrogant male jerk who was given way too much power and abuses that power. 

Are there women who abuse power? Of course there are and I've seen my share of toxic women too but if I'm objective and brutally honest, it's typically men who destroy workplace culture.

And even more honesty, workplace culture is hard to build, easy to destroy and it's not always a top-down problem.

Your colleagues are people and they come in all shapes and sizes with their own culture which was typically set at home. Some of them have "special personalities", some of them have way too much time on their hands and all they do is complain all day, some of them are competent but always sucking up to the boss and some of them are just ruthless and will stab you in the back the first chance they get. 

What I'm getting at is workplace toxicity comes in many forms and it is present at all organizations, it might be worse in some groups and it's not always the manager's fault.

That brings me to my second point, when Ms. Nazer states this:

"There’s a lot of research that supports the notion that we all benefit from some form of social interaction, and while connecting virtually has served its purpose, the office allows for us to feed off the energy and creativity of one another. All of the great work we are undertaking now is helping us better understand how we can possess a safe, positive culture in a hybrid work model going forward."

I don't dispute there's a lot of research that finds there are benefits to social interactions that can only come at the office, but what about the benefits of not being at the office?

Jack and Joe are working in the same group. Jack is an extrovert, a loud and obnoxious jock, loves talking sports with his boss and colleagues, goes to lunch with them and grabs drinks after work but he's always complaining about how underpaid he is and even becomes harassing at times, pressuring his team to do more so he can pressure his boss to get paid more.

Meanwhile, Joe is an introvert, likes doing his analysis in peace and quiet, prefers to eat lunch alone, doesn't go for drinks and definitely doesn't like interacting with Jack and is even afraid of him. He generally enjoys his job however he can't deal with office politics and it's getting to him. However, he can't quit because he's quietly suffering from Crohn's disease and needs an income to support his family, so he puts up with office politics and Jack's rants even though it causes him a lot of anxiety.

The same thing with Susan and Mary who work together. Susan works hard, goes to the gym every morning, dresses to kill, is a go-getter, but is also very cutthroat and constantly complaining. She however is a perfect hypocrite, praising her superiors and demeaning her work colleagues every chance she gets. Mary is a sweet and shy lady in her late thirties who was just diagnosed with breast cancer. She is suffering from severe anxiety as she tries to cope with her illness and is frightened if anyone finds out, she will be terminated. She tries to steer clear of Susan but has to work with her.

I purposely made up these examples to make a point, quite often working at the office isn't all it's cracked up to be and while there are definitely benefits, take it from me, there are big drawbacks too, especially if you're working with the wrong people. 

I know many people like Joe and Mary and unfortunately, I've also encountered the Jacks and Susans.

The minute you put people together in a work environment, good things happen but oftentimes, toxicity develops. 

What else? It isn't lost on me that any form of workplace harassment and discrimination is much harder to do when people are working remotely. It's not impossible but much harder.

In many ways, working remotely levels the playing field for all employees, it's much easier to focus on output and strong competencies, much harder to be influenced by other subjective factors.

What else? Inclusion is a big theme these days. It's not just about diversity, nowadays the focus is on more inclusive workplaces. 

Some institutional investors have started a movement signing the Canadian Investor Statement on Diversity & Inclusion to pressure companies to promote more diverse and inclusive workplaces:

Great, right? Who doesn't want that? 

Well, I have a few issues with this. First, what's good for the goose is good for the gander. 

Before you point the finger at any company, make sure you practice what you preach, fostering and promoting diversity and inclusion at all levels of your own organization. Back this up with publicly available statistics with each and every annual report.

Second, while I know agree there is systemic racism on Black and Indigenous communities and People of Colour in Canada and globally, if you look at the cold, hard facts, the worst discrimination is taking place at all workplaces is on people with disabilities

And ironically, the pandemic has only exacerbated the problem as more people with disabilities fall through the cracks and are being shunned altogether from potential contract work.

In a real just society, the focus would always be on helping our most vulnerable citizens no matter what.

I'm afraid to say that we are falling short of this goal, especially when it comes for people with disabilities.

That's why I take all this "workplace culture" and "benefits of working closely at the office" with a grain of salt. 

If this pandemic taught us anything, it's that remote working is possible and it truly opens the doors for organizations to promote workplace diversity and inclusion to everyone, including people with disabilities.

And not just people with physical disabilities, it's also people with developmental disorders. CBS 60 Minutes did a great segment on companies recruiting talent on the autism spectrum. You can watch it here.


These workers with autism are adding to the bottom line, their attention to detail is high, but the segment shows how the traditional HR interview is biased against them. 

Much to their credit, at the global accounting firm Ernst & Young, they've scrapped the traditional interview process for applicants with autism. They've replaced it with a series of problem-solving challenges.

That's an example of real inclusion and diversity. Unfortunately, it's not the norm. 

Where am I going with all this? While I agree with a lot of points Satish Rai and Nancy Nazer raise, there are inherent biases in some of their statements and points and I'm not sure they realize it.

I understand, OMERS is a large pension, it invests in office properties through its real estate subsidiary, Oxford Properties, it's only normal they want things to get back to normal fast so people go back to work at their office. 

But even they realize the new normal means a hybrid model of remote work and offices and that means some potential pain ahead for their office properties.

However, it also opens up new possibilities to attract talent from all over the country to help them shape the future of OMERS.

In other words, it's not all bad, but it is challenging.

Even OMERS CEO Blake Hutcheson told me "it's hard building culture remotely".  

He's right, it's hard but not impossible and I think it's a generational thing as younger millennials are more comfortable interacting remotely or through dedicated chat lines. 

Pensions and all organizations need to get up to speed with building cyber culture. 

By the way, Blake Hutcheson just penned a short comment on Linkedin on taking stock on what matters:

In challenging times, we take stock of what matters. This year has reminded me how important genuine and deep relationships are in life, and in business. Of course, I treasure the relationships I have with my family and friends; but also with so many of you in the Canadian and global business community, where this year the words, “friendship” and “partnership” have never been more meaningful. Early in my career a wise elder statesman in the real estate community once whispered said to me: “Blake, business travels at the speed of trust. Never forget it”. I never have and in my view, trust starts with true friendship. The year 2020 has underscored these sentiments more than any other year in my career. You know who you are (many of whom I have the privilege of working with) and THANK YOU on behalf of OMERS and Oxford – and me personally!

At this time of deep reflection, I also wanted to acknowledge my long-time friend and colleague, John Ruffolo. His recent bike accident may have shaken John’s world, but his professional courage, ambition and continued commitment to drive innovation and entrepreneurial spirit in Canada remain both unbattered and totally inspirational. John, I speak for so many when I say – thanks for the friendship, I am here for you, and I join an entire community who is rooting for you and your amazing family.

I am hopeful that 2020 will soon be behind us, metaphorically and actually, and that much goodness will have come from it. Including a refreshed appreciation of the delicate and inextricably connected world around us, and the importance of what really matters. We all need to succeed and to prevail over our COVID setbacks and we will, but let’s do it with a renewed commitment to friendship, trust and each other.

This a great short comment, it doesn't say a lot but it says it all in a powerful and empathetic way.

What happened to John Ruffulo is tragic and we are all praying for him. It can happen to anyone and while he is privately dealing with this and working toward adapting to his new normal, it helps a lot reading supportive comments from a long-time friend.

It also helps "build workplace culture" when employees at OMERS read how grateful their boss is and that he's thinking of them. It really doesn't take much. 

Anyway, I've rambled on way too much again but needed to tackle these issues and express my opinions. 

I don't pretend to have the monopoly of wisdom on workplace culture or diversity & inclusion, I'm just trying to bring some fresh perspective. 

Below, the pandemic has been particularly hard for Canadians with disabilities. More than a third (36%) have reported job losses or reduced working hours since March. Disability advocate and journalist Kevin McShan is one of them, and he recently appeared on CTV's Your Morning discussing what he wants the federal government to do to spur economic opportunities for people with disabilities. 

Kevin also recently interviewed Meggie Stewart, Siobhan Costelloe and Jackie Moore on how Ready, Willing and Able develops inclusive and effective labor markets. Watch it below, it's an excellent discussion.

Third, Many adults with autism have a hard time finding a job, but more companies are discovering the unique skills and potential people with autism offer. Anderson Cooper reports on CBS 60 Minutes.

Lastly, the pandemic has put many working moms in an impossible situation – doing their own jobs as well as those of teachers and childcare workers, on top of housework – and some women are finding their careers in jeopardy as they balance the demands from employers with their children's needs. Correspondent Rita Braver hears from working mothers who describe a climate of discrimination, and examines how this challenging new work dynamic may actually set back advances that have been made in bringing equality to the workplace.

I saw this Sunday morning and found it outrageous. Large pensions and other big institutional investors need to voice their concerns over this disgusting workplace discrimination on mothers during the pandemic. Let's focus more on the "S" in "ESG"!

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The 'Pathological' Behavior of US Pension Funds?

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Brett Arendt of MarketWatch reports that 'pathological’ behavior by pension fund trustees leads to billions blown on real estate:

Ouch. Finance professor Timothy Riddiough says some of the people running America’s 6,000 state and local public pension plans are exhibiting “pathological investment behaviors.”

No, really. Pathological. (At least, he says, from the perspective of classical financial economics perspective.)

These pension fund managers invest in the same assets, then hope to beat the market, he says. They take foolish bets to try to get out of their funding crisis, like gamblers hoping to win back their losses. They engage in “delusional benchmarking, giving themselves A’s and B’s for C and D work.”

Oh, and they are pouring somewhere nearing 10% of their members’ money into private real estate ventures that have a dismal track record and which they won’t be able to exit easily if they need to.

Like I said: Ouch.

Riddiough is a finance professor at the University of Wisconsin and an expert in real-estate investment trusts. He holds the department chair in urban land and real estate economics. And his comments matter not only for his expertise but because they come in an extraordinary and detailed takedown of public pension funds, especially their fondness for “private equity real estate” funds.

The National Association of State Retirement Administrators, the organization that represents the managers, disagreed.

Public pension funds are long-term investors and invest in diversified portfolios that are intended to maximize investment returns within an acceptable level of risk,” the organization said in a statement. “As a group, public pension funds invest around 7% of their assets in real estate. As part of their required due diligence, public pension funds continually review their asset allocations and risk profiles to ensure they are optimizing risk and investment return.”

It added: “Although the report author accuses public pension fund managers of a ‘herd mentality,’ in fact, many public pension funds do not invest in real estate at all, and among those that do, there is a wide range in the percentage of their portfolio that is invested in real estate. Moreover, the author’s attempts to link growing pension underfunding to increased allocations to real estate are purely speculative: public pension funds have been diversifying their portfolios for many years after investing predominantly in just two asset classes: public equities and bonds. Such diversification is prudent and part of a sound investment and risk management strategy.”

In a nutshell, Riddiough cites detailed industry data showing that these private funds have underperformed publicly traded real-estate investment trusts, the kind anybody can buy on the stock market or through a money manager like Vanguard, by a country mile.

He also cites data showing there is no evidence any individual managers have any particular, persistent skill worth paying for.

Since reliable records began back in the late 1970s, these private REITs overall have trailed the ones available through the stock market by an average of more than 5 percentage points a year, according to industry data. Someone who had put their money in public REITs back then would today “be nearly 7-times better off” than someone who backed the private funds, he says.

Seven times better off.

Yet public pension funds keep buying them, year after year. State and local pension funds may now account for about half of all the money in these private equity real-estate funds. We’re talking tens, even hundreds, of billions of dollars.

These comments come just as Boston College’s Center for Retirement Research warns that public pension funds have just booked an absolutely terrible fiscal year (which is typically measured from July 1 to June 30). That, it adds, is even despite the massive stock market rebound in the spring, and the soaring prices for bonds.

Average returns during the fiscal year: 1.75%, or barely a quarter of targets.

Err…they could have made more than four times as much, or 8.1%, in Vanguard’s Balanced Index Fund (VBINX) over the same time. They managed to underperform the basic global stock index (ACWI), which gained more than 2% and which they could have owned through a single exchange-traded fund, like this ACWI. And they were way, way behind things like long-term U.S. Treasury bonds (VUSTX) and TIPS (VIPSX) which earned you better than 20%.

The pension funds’ target returns for the year averaged about 7.2%, Boston College calculates. Oops.

Pew Charitable Trust recently estimated that the total funding shortfall just for the 50 plans run at state level came to $1.3 trillion, meaning that’s how much more they owe in payouts than they have in assets. Oh, and that was in 2018, so we’re out of date.

The good news? Any Joe or Joanna Public can invest in real estate easily, without having to have any access to exclusive, overpriced, illiquid private equity real-estate funds. I’m not trying to bang any drum for Vanguard, but their Real Estate Index Fund (VNQ) and International Real Estate Index Fund (VNQI) are among the easy options you can buy and forget about.

Oh, and overall public REITs have been an excellent long-term investment.

The first thought that crossed my mind after reading article was who is professor Timothy Riddiough?

I never heard of him and to be honest, after reading this article, I'm not very impressed.

Let me sum it up for you. US public pension funds are run by a bunch of delusional sociopaths who keep allocating to private real estate and they would have been better off just investing in public REITs and public markets in general.

I'm not kidding. They engage in “delusional benchmarking, giving themselves A’s and B’s for C and D work.”

What is he talking about? Delusional benchmarking? There is a passive portfolio typically made up of public stock or bond indexes and they try to add value over this reference portfolio (benchmark portfolio) over the long run. 

And if they're good, like large Canadian public pensions, they'll add anywhere between 70 to 150 basis points a year (on average) over their passive benchmark. And over the years, it adds up to a lot of moolah. 

For example, here is the latest asset mix for CPP Investments as at June 30th:

Here is a 10-year review of how assets grew and net returns:

Notice how CPP Investments has outperformed over the years since it initiated in active strategy program in 2006, investing more in private equity, infrastructure, real estate and private debt:


And it's not just in Private Markets, CPP Investments does sophisticated internal strategies in Public Markets too.

The end result is they've delivered significant dollar value-added over since inception of their active strategy (2006) over their minimum required return and over their Reference Portfolio:


We are talking about billions of dollars -- $94 billion over minimum required return and $53 billion over the Reference Portfolio made up of 85% global equities since the introduction of active management back in 2006.  

Now, CPP Investments is Canada's largest and most sophisticated pension fund. Along with OTPP and HOOPP, they are considered to be the best pensions in the world.

No US public pension comes close to these pensions but I'm using this as an example of how well governed pensions add significant value over passive public market benchmarks over a long period

This finance professor castigates US public pensions for investing in private real estate and makes outrageous claims without understanding that pensions have a fiduciary responsibility to diversify across public and private markets and take advantage of their long investment horizon to add value over public market benchmarks over the long run!!

And stating that public REITs have outperformed private REITs during the greatest bull market in history is data mining at its worst!

There's a ton of "beta" in public REITs so I would expect them to outperform during bull markets in stocks, and severely underpeform during a bear market. 

Remember, pensions are trying to deliver the highest risk-adjusted returns, and they will typically underperform their benchmark portfolio during a roaring bull market.

But they make that performance up and more during bear markets and that's not explained at all in this article or by this professor.

Two years ago, I wrote a comment criticizing some other guy who kept saying pensions cannot beat a 60-40 portfolio. All these finance professors need to take the time to read it here, and get insights from Leo de Bever and others, people who actually know what they're talking about.

Leo de Bever and two finance professors wrote a paper for Norway's giant pension, A review of real estate and infrastructure investments by the Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG).

You can read it here. Leo was arguing for more allocation into unlisted real estate and infrastructure but in the end, the two finance professors disagreed and said that Norway is better off in listed REITs.

I'm not going to get into too much detail here but Leo de Bever was right, there's too much beta in listed real estate and especially listed infrastructure, and it is appropriate to look at things over a longer time frame (read pages 140 on management compensation systems).

Are US public pensions perfect? Of course not, as Clive Lipshitz and Walter Ingo argue in their seminal paper, they can learn a lot from Canadian pensions.  

But if you ask Clive, the number one problem at US public pensions is flawed plan design, there is no shared risk model to ensure these plans remain fully funded though thick and thin.

And what happens when US public pensions keep getting underfunded? Well, they hit a pension brick wall, like New Jersey, and end up taxing their taxpayers to top up these chronically underfunded pensions.

Again, it has nothing to do with investing in private real estate, everything to do with faulty pension design.

So, please ignore professor Timothy Riddiough and his ridiculous claims of pathological behavior at US public pension funds. He truly has no clue of what he's talking about and is dangerous in what he's proposing instead (indexing and more public REITs). 

If I had a choice of investing with Blackstone's Jon Gray over the years or some public REIT, my money would definitely be with Blackstone even if the fees are higher. 

And there are plenty of other private real estate funds which have delivered outstanding returns for US public pensions, net of fees.

Below, an older clip where Blackstone's Jon Gray, then head of Real Estate now president and chief operating officer a, talks about how they add value over a long period of time. I also embedded another interview from a couple of years ago.

Listen to the king of real estate and ignore this finance professor from Wisconsin.

CDPQ's Macky Tall on Building Sustainable Infrastructure

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Macky Tall, Head of Real Assets and Private Equity at CDPQ and President & CEO of CDPQ Infra, recently discussed remodeling infrastructure financing in the latest edition of Voices from the Global Infrastructure Initiative:

Mass public transit remains a crucial component of city planning and development, even in a post-COVID-19 era. Consistent city-wide traffic and the pursuit of carbon-neutral alternatives favor the development of public transit options. However, too many governments struggle to finance such projects, especially large ones. That’s where institutional investors are increasingly stepping in. In Quebec, CDPQ Infra is in the middle of delivering Réseau express métropolitain (REM)—the CAD $6.5 billion, all-electric, largest public-transportation network in half a century—which will interconnect multiple communities as well as the business center with the Montreal–Trudeau International Airport.

CDPQ Infra is a subsidiary of Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ), an institutional investor that has been investing in infrastructure, including transit, around the world for more than 20 years. In this interview, Macky Tall, head of Real Assets and Private Equity at CDPQ and CEO of CDPQ Infra, discusses how the right business model can create win–win solutions for public and private partners as well as local citizens.

McKinsey:Why is CDPQ interested in infrastructure, and what challenge is CDPQ Infra trying to help solve?

Macky Tall: Investing in infrastructure means investing in tangible assets that generate stable and predictable returns—which is aligned with our clients’ long-term needs. With CDPQ Infra, our model dedicated to the execution of major public infrastructure projects, our vision is to be a trusted partner for governments around the world as they try to solve their infrastructure challenges. Many governments today are heavily indebted. They either won’t or can’t invest in the major projects—like public transit, ports, roads and bridges—that hold the potential to improve a country’s economic future and communities’ quality of life. As a result, the global infrastructure gap continues to grow every year. Long-term investors such as CDPQ can play a meaningful role in reducing this gap by providing the capital and the know-how to ensure these important projects are executed. It is a win–win scenario. Local governments and countries provide the infrastructure people need to work and live better, and long-term investors can generate the reliable returns and predictable cash flow they need over time, all the while advancing public interest.

McKinsey: How does the business model work?

Macky Tall: Beyond providing capital, CDPQ Infra seeks to provide a one-stop shop for project delivery and development, with capabilities to support each project from A to Z. The REM illustrates how the model works. CDPQ Infra is working closely with every level of government: local, provincial, and federal. They outlined their needs, and we put forward the design for an integrated transit system to meet those needs. As one of the few organizations in the world with both the financial capacity and the technical expertise required to carry out major infrastructure projects from end to end, we manage design, permitting, procurement, construction, and, eventually, operations.

This unique kind of partnership is not devoid of challenges. We first needed to recruit a broad spectrum of talent that we did not have internally. But the project’s scope and ambition appealed to professionals at the very top of their respective fields. Second, we had to convince governmental partners and the public of the benefits of our model, which is distinct from that of other public–private partnerships because of our involvement at the design and development phases. Third, we had to demonstrate that the model would allow us to plan, finance, and begin the construction of a major transit infrastructure project within an efficient time frame.

Finally, the REM is very much a coming together of old and new. We needed to use and upgrade the existing rail line that runs through downtown Montreal. Otherwise, the project wouldn’t have been financially viable and socially acceptable. The promised result is a fast, frequent, and reliable light-rail service that serves a much wider area than we could have covered without reutilizing existing rights of way.

McKinsey:How would you describe the REM as a “project of the future”?

Macky Tall:This model is a new way for governments to accelerate the development of much-needed infrastructure, so it’s inherently a model for the future. The REM is a great illustration of how that model can work to serve people today—and well into the future. Like most big cities, Montreal struggles with congestion, which negatively affects productivity, quality of life, and the environment. Without action, these problems will only intensify over time. The REM project can deliver meaningful progress, improving how people travel for leisure, to work, to home, and to the airport, all in an efficient way. It will better connect the city in a sustainable way. What truly makes this a project of the future is our focus on the longer term. We are building the REM to last for many generations, to keep pace with changing habits, and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to help fight climate change.

McKinsey:REM development has moved at a fast pace relative to other major infrastructure projects of this size. What strategies have enabled this momentum, and are they applicable globally?

Macky Tall:From the start, we established a clear system of governance involving our partners and stakeholders. Our goal was to create the conditions for decisions to be made in a timely and informed manner. The bottom line is that everyone is on the same page and committed to the successful delivery of the project. We made a point of avoiding the linear approach to planning and construction. Operating on a single track—with Decision A followed by Decision B followed by Decision C—can be a recipe for delay and inertia. Instead, we chose to function with a design-build model. We are moving along in parallel on several fronts, which means we are allowing for progress to begin immediately on certain aspects such as planning and land acquisitions while we are ironing out design elements and compliance.

The CDPQ Infra model could be easily exported because today so many cities need efficient, safe, and adaptable mobility solutions. We’ve had a great deal of preliminary expressions of interest from around the globe. Decision makers are intrigued by the model and its potential to create growth.

McKinsey:In September 2019, CDPQ committed to a carbon-neutral investment portfolio by 2050. How does CDPQ Infra fit into that goal?

Macky Tall:Infrastructure plays a crucial role in reducing emissions. And as an organization, we understand that our long-term returns are directly linked to the long-term stability of our economy and the communities we invest in. CDPQ formally committed to fighting climate change in 2017 by pledging to reduce the carbon intensity of our overall portfolio by 25 percent by 2025. And, by the end of 2020, our goal is to increase investments in low-carbon assets by more than $14 billion compared with 2017. We would like to be seen as a leader in sustainable infrastructure. The REM, for instance, is fully electric and will be carbon neutral from beginning to end. It will help reduce 115 million vehicle-km, which translates to a significant reduction in the distance being covered by cars. We want to show that the future of urban mobility can—and should—be efficient and carbon neutral.

Phenomenal interview with CDPQ's Macky Tall. I've been catching up on my reading and decided this was well worth covering on Thursday as it seems to be the day when most people read this blog (they should read it every day). 

In this interview, Macky Tall covers a few things:
  • Mass public transit remains a crucial component of city planning but many governments are too heavily indebted and they either won’t or can’t invest in the major projects—like public transit, ports, roads and bridges—that hold the potential to improve a country’s economic future and communities’ quality of life.
  • One way around these fiscal constraints is to partner up with the right long-term investor, one that has the capital to invest as well as the internal expertise to deliver on such infrastructure projects.
  • CDPQ Infra seeks to provide a one-stop shop for project delivery and development, with capabilities to support each project from A to Z. As one of the few organizations in the world with both the financial capacity and the technical expertise required to carry out major infrastructure projects from end to end, they manage design, permitting, procurement, construction, and, eventually, operations.
  • The Réseau express métropolitain (REM)—the CAD $6.5 billion, all-electric, largest public-transportation network in half a century—which will interconnect multiple communities as well as the business center with the Montreal–Trudeau International Airport, is an example of how this model works. CDPQ Infra is working closely with every level of government -- local, provincial, and federal -- and it is on track to commence operations by 2022.
  • Once completed, the REM will provide a fast, frequent, and reliable light-rail service that serves a much wider area than reutilizing existing rights of way and it will significantly reduce congestion, which negatively affects productivity, quality of life, and the environment.
  • The REM project can deliver meaningful progress, improving how people travel for leisure, to work, to home, and to the airport, all in an efficient way. It will better connect the city of Montreal in a sustainable way. And Macky Tall emphasizes: "What truly makes this a project of the future is our focus on the longer term. We are building the REM to last for many generations, to keep pace with changing habits, and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to help fight climate change." 
  • In fact, once operational and fully electric, the REM will be carbon neutral and it will help reduce 115 million vehicle-km, which translates to a significant reduction in the distance being covered by cars.
  • The CDPQ Infra model could be easily exported because today so many cities need efficient, safe, and adaptable mobility solutions. CDPQ Infra has had a great deal of preliminary expressions of interest from around the globe. 
On that last point, I've already discussed how CDPQ's former CEO, Michael Sabia, was looking to export the CDPQ Infra model, but thus far, nothing has been signed. 

Back in June, I wrote how CDPQ Infra was derailed in Auckland, New Zealand.

However, in August, NZ Infra, a partnership between the New Zealand Superannuation Fund and CDPQ Infra, welcomed the New Zealand Government’s announcement of the next steps regarding the City Centre to Māngere Light Rail corridor in Auckland:

“We are pleased to be taking part in the new process being led by the Ministry of Transport to advance light rail in Auckland,” said the New Zealand Superannuation Fund CEO Matt Whineray. “We are currently preparing a range of information that we will provide to the Ministry.”

CDPQ Infra Managing Director Jean-Marc Arbaud said: “NZ Infra is committed to presenting the Government with the highest quality light rail proposal possible.”

The Government’s assessment process will take up to six months.

Due to the commercially sensitive nature of the process, NZ Infra cannot comment any further at this time.

A lot is banking on this deal. If NZ Infra’s proposal is approved, it will allow CDPQ Infra to stay alive after REM and move on to the next major project.  

Let me be clear, as it stands, CDPQ Infra's model has not been approved anywhere else and it's critical that governments approve these projects for the group to export their technical and financial knowledge and continue existing in the current form.

If unsuccessful, CDPQ Infra will be closed and Infrastructure at the Caisse will revert back to being just about doing direct deals with partners, what Emmanuel Jaclot and his team are doing, investing in infrastructure assets all over the world. 

For example, recently CDPQ co-invested with EQT in Colisée, a European leader in elderly care:

Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ), a global institutional investor, announces the acquisition of a minority interest in Colisée Group, a key player in Europe's nursing home sector.

CDPQ's investment alongside EQT Infrastructure V (EQT Infrastructure, majority shareholder) and Colisée's management team will enable the company to consider new growth opportunities, including in new markets, while consolidating its high-quality care and services offering.

Headquartered in Paris, Colisée currently operates more than 270 nursing home facilities as well as home care services agencies, mainly in France, Belgium, Spain and Italy. In addition to nursing home facilities, Colisée has diversified its offering to provide more services to help the elderly. The company employs more than 16,000 people and has annual revenues of over €1 billion.

This stake is the culmination of talks with Colisée management that began in 2019 and is part of CDPQ's enhanced infrastructure investment strategy in Europe. As a long-term investor, CDPQ will support Colisée in its development plan, which takes into account major trends such as the aging population and growing demand for elder care services.

"For CDPQ, this acquisition represents a significant investment in health care infrastructure, an essential sector where needs are growing and where Colisée is well positioned," said Emmanuel Jaclot, Executive Vice-President and Head of Infrastructure at CDPQ. "Colisée's excellent track record in terms of quality of care and resident well-being is a crucial element of this partnership, and is consistent with our ESG approach."

"With the support of a long-term investor like CDPQ, Colisée will continue developing its elder care services. CDPQ shares common values with our company, and social responsibility is at the heart of its mission," stated Christine Jeandel, President of Colisée.

"EQT Infrastructure is proud to have the participation of a high-quality partner such as CDPQ for this investment in social infrastructure, a speciality area for EQT. With CDPQ's investment alongside EQT Infrastructure, Colisée will benefit from shareholders who can support the group's strong growth over the long term, said Ulrich Köllensperger, Partner and Thomas Rajzbaum, Managing Director at EQT Partners and investment advisors at EQT Infrastructure.

The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals. The financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed.

This is a fantastic deal in healthcare infrastructure with a first-rate European partner. It's also sort of gutsy as we are in the middle of a global pandemic and most investors don't want to touch long-term care with a ten foot pole.

Recall my recent lengthy comment on PSP's Revera and how it's under so much public scrutiny. Revera is part of PSP's Real Estate portfolio.

[Note: Darren Baccus, PSP's Global Head of Real Estate, recently left the organization.]

By the way, someone recently emailed me to ask me if I believe that seniors residences should be made public and I said "no way!".

I believe Canada has a huge problem, we need to assess what went wrong, it hit public and private long-term care facilities but at the end of the day, I trust well run private LTC facilities a lot more than government run ones and think we need to adopt national standards and follow up regularly

Anyway, I better wrap it up but one last thing. Does anyone know what is going on at the Canada Infrastructure Bank? Why is it taking Michael Sabia so long to find a new CEO? (Michael: contact me, you need to get going on this "CEO hunt" and I have a few great candidates!!). 

Truth be told, I think Michael Sabia has his candidate which would explain why recruiters aren't talking to other worthy candidates (I can write a book on how things work behind the scenes).

Alright, now I will wrap it up before I ruffle any feathers.

Below, CNBC's Brian Sullivan moderated a panel discussion in 2019 at the Milken Institute on filling the infrastructure gap. Great discussion but next time, they need to invite Macky Tall to take part.

And Christian Brändli, SECO’s Head of Economic Cooperation and Development, talks about urban development, the Sustainable Development Goals, and the role of the private sector in financing infrastructure megaprojects

Markets Climbing the Wall of Worry?

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Fred Imbert of CNBC reports the Dow closes 160 points higher, posts best week since August as investors monitor stimulus talks:

Stocks rose on Friday to end their best week in months as President Donald Trump signaled support for a bigger coronavirus aid package. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 161 points higher, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gained 0.9% and 1.4%, respectively.

Microsoft and Salesforce led the Dow higher, rising 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively. Consumer discretionary and tech were the best-performing S&P 500 sectors, advancing more than 1% each. 

For the week, the Dow jumped 3.3% and posted its biggest one-week gain since August. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 3.8% and 4.6%, respectively, for the week. Both benchmarks were headed for their biggest one-week gain since early July

Trump tweeted on Friday that “Covid Relief Negotiations are moving along. Go Big!”

CNBC’s Ylan Mui also reported the administration has raised its offer for a new aid package to $1.8 trillion from $1.6 trillion. Trump later said he “would like to see a bigger stimulus package frankly than either the Democrats or Republicans are offering.”

To be sure, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said it is “unlikely” that a new aid package would be passed in the three weeks prior to the Nov. 3 election.

Trump’s comments came a day after the administration and Democrats sent mixed messages regarding future aid.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., told reporters on Thursday she would not back aid to U.S. airlines without a broader stimulus package, something Trump hinted earlier in the week he’d support. Meanwhile, Trump told Fox Business on Thursday morning that the administration and Democrats were “starting to have some very productive talks.”

“Stimulus talks are really dictating the market action on a day-to-day basis,” said Keith Buchanan, portfolio manager at GLOBALT. Buchanan noted that the recent rhetoric indicates some progress in the negotiations, but added it is key for Washington to move “quickly” on the matter to “relieve the pressure that the economy is under.”

The Federal Reserve and U.S. lawmakers have spent trillions of dollars on various measures to keep the economy afloat during the pandemic. Earlier this year, the Fed launched an open-ended bond-buying program and Trump signed a $2.2 trillion package that included enhanced unemployment benefits and direct payments to Americans. However, economic experts — as well as the Fed — have urged the government to push through more aid as it would sustain the recent economic recovery. 

Carl Icahn, billionaire investor and chairman of Icahn Enterprises, said Thursday night these measures have been “very effective” for the economy and the market. 

“If you look at stock prices, I think some of them are ridiculously high but going short on them proves to be a very, very expensive operation,” Icahn said at the 13D Monitor Active-Passive Investor Summit. “A lot of those stocks you believe are tremendously overpriced just keep going up. So basically, I think the stimulus is doing the trick.”

“At this juncture, I’m net long because I believe that this stimulus is coming and it’s going to continue, especially after the election,” he said.

Alright, Friday afternoon, time to cover markets to end the week and go into Canadian Thanksgiving weekend (long weekend for us).

First, a mea culpa, last week I openly stated I expected an October stimulus surprise and was convinced they'd pass it on Sunday to juice up markets on Monday.

Well, I was wrong, it didn't happen and I underestimated the petty politics going on in Washington as Republicans and Democrats fight to claim victory on the stimulus package.

I actually thought last Friday's US jobs report would be enough to convince everyone to come together and pass a stimulus package but this is Washington and Trump is adding to the angst, or at least that's what top Democrats claim:

As millions of jobless and financially struggling Americans await a stimulus deal from Washington, the White House put out a new $1.8 trillion proposal on the table on Friday.

This comes after President Trump called off stimulus negotiations, and then pushed for standalone bills to provide funds for the airline industry and distribute another round of checks to individuals. Top Democrats rejected that proposal.

With three weeks left until the election, Trump wants to make a deal – and Democrats are waiting.

“What we’re saying as a House of Representatives, all we want to do is get a package done. We don’t want a piecemeal package,” Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), chairman of the House Committee on Homeland Security, told Yahoo Finance. “Now the $2.2 [trillion] stimulus package we passed last week, it’s on the table. All the president needs to do is step up and be the adult in the room for once in his life and do the right thing.”

Although Democrats know a standalone bill for stimulus checks would be a big boost for many Americans facing financial devastation, they’re not budging. “[Stimulus checks] would help, but look, in my district, which is one of the poor districts in America, the people know about struggle. This is nothing new,” said Thompson.

The unemployment rate in Mississippi was 7.9% in August, compared to 8.4% for the U.S. Thompson’s Congressional district had a pre-pandemic median household income of $37,372 in 2019, well below the national average of $68,703 that same year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

“I’m convinced that the people in my district who are having a difficult time, they’ll make it,” Thompson said. “But I know one thing, they are absolutely committed on November 3 to go to the polls and vote Donald Trump out.”

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will be speaking Friday about the latest offer. The two sides still remain divided over a handful of issues, including how much money to provide state and local governments.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has thrown in the towel, telling reporters during a campaign event in Kentucky on Friday that he doesn’t expect a stimulus deal before Election Day.

“I think the murkiness is a result of the proximity to the election, and everybody kind of trying to elbow for political advantage"he said. “I’d like to see us rise above that like we did back in March and April, but I think that’s unlikely in the next three weeks.”

So Mitch McConnell is alright rushing to vote in Judge Amy Coney Barrett ro replace Justice Ginsberg at the Supreme Court but he can't rush to pass a stimulus bill that millions of Americans are restlessly waiting for?

I don't know, as a Canadian watching the Washington political machine, I get disgusted with all the theatrics and temper tantrums as millions are living on the edge.

Now I know how this guy feels about Washington politicians:

Anyways, back to markets, it was a good week for the S&P 500 as all the major sectors posted gains, led by Materials (XME) and Energy (XLE), both of which gained 5% this week:


Recall last week, I discussed how Canacord Genuity's Martin Roberge thought there was a synchronized global recovery going on and that deep cyclicals were a buy here:


Earlier this week, Martin hosted a conference call going over his market thoughts and while I can't share all the slides with you, I will share two important ones:

 

Is there a major recovery going on in China? Well, if you look at the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI), there's definitely a recovery in Chinese shares like Alibaba (BABA) and Tencent which make up 32% of this ETF:

And this has propelled the iShares Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) higher:

However, I must warn you, both these weekly charts look toppish to me and they're vulnerable to a pullback in the near term, especially now that a second wave of COVID-19 is emerging all over the world, including in Europe:

This is why I'm very careful here, there are a lot of unknowns which can throw these markets off: US elections, second wave of COVID and God knows what else.

Typically, markets climb the wall of worry and there's still plenty of liquidity to propel all risk assets (not just stocks) higher.

But when I look at the 5-year weekly chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), it's at an important level where it can easily experience a sharp pullback:


Let me be more blunt, when I look at that chart above, I fear that traders will use any passage of the stimulus bill to sell the news hard. And if the stimulus doesn't pass, they will sell stocks even harder. 

That's my worry here but who knows, we might get a big breakout going into year-end (don't count on it).

And if you look at the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX), it looks even more vulnerable to a major pullback:


I know, buy the dip on tech stocks, any dip, they can only go up. I'd be very wary of buying any big dip on tech shares here.

Also, a lot of talk this week on the backup in long bond yields and that shows a strong economic recovery is on its way, the curve is 'steepening' which is good for Financials (XLF) and small caps (IWM).

Take all this talk with a shaker (not a grain) of salt!  

It's nonsense, the backup in long bond yields seems like a big deal but it's nothing to worry about and I wouldn't be surprised if bond prices firm up and long bond yields decline again. Also, I'd be shorting Financials and small caps here on any pop:


Again, a second wave of COVID-19 doesn't portend well for small-caps or economic growth. A lot of small caps have done very well since bottoming in March, take your profits here.

Maybe that's why Abby Joseph Cohen is warning of 'considerable' market downside:

Lastly, Jim Bianco is warning the coming surge in inflation will be a game-changer:

I think very highly of Bianco, he's a great market researcher and agree with him on the stock mania coming to an end. 

But please repeat after me: "The only inflation the Fed can cause is asset inflation and housing inflation. Its policies and that of other central banks are only cementing a long bout of deflation ahead."

I think a lot of investors are not getting this deflation vs. inflation call right and it's going to cost them dearly over the long run.

PIMCO is right, investors need to prepare for lower returns and higher volatility over the next five years:

Alright, let me wrap it up by showing you the top performing large cap stocks this week:

I noticed shares of Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP) popped 23% and wondered if it had to do with the fact that these two ladies won the Nobel Prize in chemistry for developing the CRISPR gene editing tool:

A well deserved honor. Hopefully, this will push more young ladies into sciences so they can earn their own Nobel Prize one day. 

Below, CNBC's MacKenzie Sigalos and Seema Mody break down corporate America's massive wave of layoffs, and explain why more could be coming as large industries and small businesses alike wait for a relief package from Washington.

Next, CNBC's "Halftime Report" team discusses investment strategies.

Third, stocks have another good week, but what's next for the markets? With CNBC's Dominic Chu and the Fast Money traders, Steve Grasso, Brian Kelly, Jeff Mills and Bonawyn Eison.

Fourth, Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the race to find an coronavirus treatment, how the failure to create a national market capacity strategy will limit the accessibility of an antibody treatment and more.

Lastly, remebering Eddie Van Halen, the guitar virtuoso whose blinding speed, control and innovation propelled his band Van Halen into one of hard rock’s biggest groups, fueled the unmistakable fiery solo in Michael Jackson’s hit “Beat It” and became elevated to the status of rock god, has died. He was 65. RIP Eddie, you rocked!!

On that note, wish all my fellow Canadians a very Happy Thanksgiving Weekend! Enjoy the long weekend, I'll be back on Tuesday.

IMCO's CEO on Navigating Uncharted Territory

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Bert Clark, President & CEO of the Investment Management Corporation of Ontario (IMCO),wrote a comment for the Canadian Investment Review on finding a path forward for institutional investors amid market headwinds: 

The impact of powerful trends, including aging populations and growing debt levels in the world’s largest economies, has been somewhat mitigated in recent years by the ongoing involvement of central banks in markets and declining interest rates. However, with rates at historic lows, this is not something that can be relied on over the next decade, and returns are likely to be lower going forward across most asset classes.

Ongoing central bank involvement in the capital markets may have been necessary at various points from the start of the great financial crisis until now. However, the overall result today is that we are in uncharted territory. Two decades ago, central banks influenced short-term interest rates, had very small balance sheets and made intentionally vague public statements about the future path of interest rates. That role has evolved dramatically. For example, today, the U.S. Federal Reserve balance sheet is bigger than the largest asset managers in the world, it intervenes directly in the market to influence bond pricing across the entire interest curve, it buys investment-grade and high-yield credit and its pronouncements about future rates are unequivocal.

This presents two challenges for investors: first, over the long term, markets don’t tend to work well when they are dominated by government intervention. Second, by driving rates across the curve into negative real territory, central banks have forced most investors to invest more heavily in risk assets and made it harder for bonds to have the same impact in portfolios they have historically had, namely as a diversifier and a source of return. As a result, investor portfolios are generally riskier today.

Finally, the coronavirus has not impacted all stocks and market segments equally. While many indexes sit roughly at their pre-pandemic levels, this again is tied closely to unparalleled central bank intervention. But, beneath the indexes, there is a high degree of dispersion in terms of individual stock and market segment returns, meaning there are both greater opportunities and risks for investors today.

So, what is an investor to do?

Focus on diversification

Though the term diversification is often over-used, it remains the most important strategy for investors to keep in mind. In a world of lower returns, most investors aren’t likely to have as balanced a portfolio as would be possible if bonds had higher returns and could occupy a larger percentage of their overall assets. Where portfolios are heavily titled to risk assets, it is even more important to avoid large asset class over-weights or under-weights. Investors also need to avoid relying heavily on any one return-enhancing strategy. Investors cannot afford to get it wrong today by placing too much emphasis on one risk asset class or return-enhancing strategy.

Carefully manage costs

Simply put, costs matter a great deal when it comes to investing, and this becomes especially true in a lower return environment. Many of today’s fee structures – like the two and 20 model – were developed when overall returns were expected to be much higher. However, fees have not come down anywhere near the same extent as return expectations. The reality is that every additional basis point of cost erodes net investment returns, so institutional investors must do what they can to reduce costs. This means developing an expanded set of internal capabilities, co-investing with private partners, negotiating preferential terms and avoiding costly external management models like managers of managers and funds of funds.

Ensure adequate liquidity

Liquidity is critical to both capturing the opportunities and avoiding the dangers posed by volatile and unpredictable markets. Most investors’ portfolios are built around the idea that risk assets generate higher returns over the long-term to compensate for higher volatility of returns in the near-term. As a result, they have a large allocation – often more than 60 per cent – to riskier assets. To effectively implement this strategy, investors need to be able to avoid selling at the wrong time, typically when markets are down.

Play to your strengths

Outperforming the markets is difficult, and the asset management industry overall does not have a great record in this regard, especially after taking fees into account. The key to outperforming is to focus on areas where investors or their partners have an actual advantage. For us, this generally means using our longer investment time horizon, our tolerance for illiquidity and our scale (which allows us to partner with some of the best investors in the world).

Watch the big picture

We are careful to navigate the big trends that can significantly impact investors’ portfolios. This does not mean speculating on the future or trying to spot obscure trends before anyone else. It means ensuring that our portfolios are adapted to powerful and often obvious and inevitable trends, like the rise of sustainable investing or the rapid acceleration in online shopping adoption driven by the coronavirus crisis.

While today’s investment climate is very challenging, the key to success is sticking to the core investment strategies that produce higher risk-adjusted returns over the long-term. Investors who can do this well will be strongly positioned to navigate this volatile and uncertain environment and emerge with momentum and confidence.

I thank Bert Clark for sending me this comment this afternoon, it's well worth covering along with his recent Canadian Club discussion with Bloomberg's Amanda Lang where he discussed creating investment value amid unprecedented volatility.

The key themes discussed above are also discussed in more depth with Amanda Lang which is why I embedded the clip below at the end of this comment. Make sure you take the time to watch it.

Also, beginning on Thursday, this blog will be launching a new series on Total Fund Portfolio Management featuring seven episodes (one every week on Thursday) and comments from Mihail Garchev, former Head of Total Fund Management and VP at BCI.

Mihail was also my colleague at PSP Investments years ago and he has produced unbelievable research and comments which will benefit all pension fund managers no matter how sophisticated they are (think of it as the Canadian model 2.0).

We are looking forward to launching this series in order to generate much needed discussion on a subject that garners too little attention (David Swensen's book remains the classic but it doesn't cover the details in depth and it certainly doesn't have a pension fund focus).

I mention this because it's very much related to a lot of the concerns Bert Clark raises above and in his discussion with Amanda Lang. 

Let me begin by looking at the role of central banks. Readers of this blog know I'm very cynical these days on capitalism and the expanded role of central banks. You should all read the comment I posted last month criticizing Ray Dalio's 'shocking' warning on capitalism for missing the mark. 

Basically, just like Ray Dalio, I have zero tolerance for nonsense and total BS. Central banks always talk about saving the financial system from collapse, which they did back in 2008, but the truth is they're bailing out the power elite -- tech moguls, corporate titans, ubber wealthy families and hedge fund and private equity managers that manage billions.

What's going on now isn't capitalism, central banks are creating money out of thin air, pumping unprecedented liquidity into the financial system to backstop markets, all markets, effectively bailing out speculators who are enriching themselves at an unprecedented level.

Failure is simply not an option, at least not in capital markets. In the real economy, hundreds of thousands businesses are failing and crumbling, unable to survive the fallout from the pandemic and closures which have decimated them.

But as long as the power elite keep getting richer, central banks have fulfilled their true mandate.

Keep in mind, this is me, Leo Kolivakis, talking, not Bert Clark although he too expresses concerns on how central banks are interfering in markets, increasing inequality and where we are heading with all this. 

Over the long Thanksgiving weekend in Canada, I read an article on Bloomberg on how a rare regime-change in economic policy is under way that’s edging central bankers out of the pivotal role they have played for decades.

Fiscal policy, which fell out of fashion as an engine of economic growth during the inflationary 1970s, has been front-and-center in the fight against Covid-19. Governments have subsidized wages, mailed checks to households and guaranteed loans for business. They’ve run up record budget deficits on the way -- an approach that economists have gradually come to support, ever since the last big crash in 2008 ushered in a decade of tepid growth.

No doubt, fiscal policy is a critical response to the COVID-19 crisis but I'm skeptical that zero bound or negative rates means the end of monetary policy. 

It means the end of conventional monetary policy as we know it but I'm afraid that unconventional monetary policy (quantitative easing) is only getting started and if stock markets crash, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Fed expand its mandate and go all BoJ (Bank of Japan) and start buying stock ETFs outright (BoJ owns 50% of Japanese stocks, effectively nationalizing the entire market).

If you think that's a stretch, I submit to you before the pandemic hit, nobody thought the Fed would be buying junk bond ETFs (to bail out private equity industry).

We are living in interesting times and I don't think we're anywhere close to having seen it all.

One thing that Bert Clark and the rest of the team at IMCO are right about, low rates and low returns are here to stay, and so is unprecedented volatility.

You need to adapt and for IMCO that means diversifying properly across geographies and public and private markets, focusing on areas where they see growth (credit, including private debt), managing costs extremely carefully (more co-investments to reduce fee drag), managing liquidity carefully to capitalize on opportunities (rebalancing portfolio and use of leverage are becoming more critical at all large Canadian pensions), and focus on its comparative advantages (long investment horizon, taking on illiqudity risk with strong partners, etc.).

IMCO's in-house experts have shared their insights on these topics and so has Bert Clark.

In his discussion with Amanda Lang, he also discusses why the traditional 60/40 stock?bond portfolio will disappoint investors given how low long bond rates are.

This has been a topic of much discussion lately:

And the answer always seems to invest more in alternatives but I caution my readers, the answer isn't investing more in high fee alternatives, if you don't get the approach right to reduce fees (through more co-investments), don't bother with alternatives.

You should all read a discussion I had with HOOPP's CEO Jeff Wendling on LDI 2.0 in a zero bound world where they are looking at a lot of options, including taking more concentrated positions in high yielding securities.

Sure, you're not a pension plan but when retirees ask me how to navigate markets in a zero bound world, I tell them to buy utilities, telecoms, pipelines and big banks to collect some yield, have some cash to buffer against market drawdowns and pray to God nothing explodes. 

What about REITs? Sure, buy some REITs but make sure your REIT is well diversified and not just Retail and Offices. 

There too, Bert Clark said they are reevaluating their real estate holdings and he said "he's getting used to working from home" (trust me, it grows on you and once you're used to it, going back to the office will seem foreign).

Lastly, a little note on diversification. The tech weighting on the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is 26% and six mega cap tech stocks make up more than 50% of the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX).

When people tell me "I just blindly buy the SPY or QQQs", I don't think they realize how much mega cap tech exposure they're actually getting and they're underestimating this concentration risk.

Do your due diligence on any ETF you're buying, if a couple of companies make up the bulk of that ETF, you're probably better off buying the shares of those companies and taking more idiosyncratic risk.

But if you think your stock holdings are well diversified because you're buying the SPY, think again, you're much more exposed to a tech selloff/ meltdown than you think. 

Diversification is a free lunch, just make sure you're using it properly.

Pension and investment experts reading this comment know what I'm talking about, that last observation above was for novices reading this comment.

Alright let me wrap it up here. One last thing, all you smart folks at IMCO and elsewhere, make sure you read Hoisington's latest economic quarterly comment here. It's superb.

Below, a recent Canadian Club virtual event featuring Bert Clark, President and CEO of the Investment Management Corporation of Ontario (IMCO). He discusses "Creating Investment Value Amid Unprecedented Volatility" with BNN Bloomberg's Amanda Lang. Great discussion, take the time to watch it all.

Also, this Thursday, Mihail Garchev and I are launching a seven part series on Total Fund Portfolio Management on Pension Pulse. It's basically seven short guest comments Mihail has prepared along with an in-depth clip discussing each comment in more detail. It will be posted each Thursday over the next seven weeks.

Take the time to watch the promo trailer below and we look forward to exploring Total Fund Portfolio Management in a lot more depth and generating great discussions on a LinkedIn group Mihail is putting together (sorry,  by invitation only, not open to public, more details to come).

Update: Mihail Garchev, the former Head of  Total Fund Management at BCI shared this with me after reading this comment:

Bert is right. The central banks have effectively borrowed the returns from the future to give these to us over the last 10 years. This is why being aware of the path of returns, not just the end return becomes increasingly important. 

Because the bonds are no longer the same hedging asset they once were (low level of yield, correlation, less efficiency in a fiscal policy setting, extreme valuations, and low "dry powder", etc), investors need to rethink the portfolio construction. 

A natural inclination would be to increase private assets and alternatives and these do help, especially because of the accounting mark-to-market diversification but there is a limit to how much privates a portfolio can have and this limit is dictated by liquidity and in relation to the liabilities. Most funds are at the 40% privates mark so there is a bit more room to expand but not much. As one approaches the 50% liquidity starts to break (of course this depends on individual fund circumstances). 

So, what is left, are two other approaches to complement the hedging properties of bonds. 

First,  to adopt path-dependent outcome-oriented portfolio management (which is what total fund management (TFM) is, it is meant to avoid negative outcomes and maximize end wealth (what we care about, not returns). Another way to avoid negative outcomes and maximize wealth is to have a dedicated and dynamically managed multi-asset asset class called "risk mitigation" and have it as a line in the policy portfolio to complement bonds. This is an outcome-oriented asset class, and not an asset-based one. 

 Such "risk mitigation" is not a pure market-based one but needs to complement the embedded structural risk mitigation in the plan design (actuarial smoothing, surplus, etc.). This structural risk mitigation is the cheapest one that anyone can get. Think of this as communicating connected vessels physics experiment. When the structural actuarial protection weakens, one complements and rebalances with a market risk mitigation specifically constructed to match what is lost from the structural one. There are very interesting properties, and leads and lags how the structural protection behaves. Surplus, for example, would buffer the initial impact but once it's used is gone and cannot be restored. Most importantly, structural mitigation does not provide a dry powder. This is important because if the portfolio dollar size becomes from $100 $80 dollars, even if one does the heroic thing of rebalancing, the weights are right but the dollars are not. One still has an $80 dollar portfolio. What is needed is something that will give a dry powder to give back the $20 lost. It then self-destructs but fulfills its function. 

My final point is about the cost. Bert is absolutely right and people often forget this powerful side of the equation. It is great to have privates and alternative and new strategies but these come at a cost. This cost is such that could potentially, if not already eroded the economies of scale that many of the Canadian pension funds are pursuing. The question then becomes, outside being cost-conscious on the organization and investment side, are there any other second-order efficiencies that could partially offset the cost and maintain the economies of scale. You will be covering this in detail in one of your upcoming posts, but it is extremely important for organizations to evaluate the hidden cost of size and scale and the hidden inefficiencies that come with those, and design a portfolio approach that could restore to the extent possible the overall efficiency. In a way, this is the second mission of total fund management. 

I thank Mihail for his very wise insights and look forward to more insights to come on Thursday and in the weeks ahead we kick off the Total Fund Portfolio Management series.

CDPQ Invests in Renewables Platform in Spain

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Renewables Now reports Canada's CDPQ to buy 216 MWp Spanish solar portfolio from Q-Energy:

Canadian pension fund manager Caisse de depot et placement du Quebec (CDPQ) will acquire a 216-MWp solar portfolio from Spanish firm Q-Energy, it said on Tuesday.

The photovoltaic (PV) portfolio, originally owned by Q-Energy III Fund, consists of 73 solar farms spread across Spain. CDPQ estimates that the assets are capable of generating more than 355,000 MWh annually, enough to meet the demand of over 115,000 households.

According to the announcement, Q-Energy will continue to manage the solar plants, carry out day-to-day operations, monitoring and maintenance.

The Royal Bank of Canada (TSE:RY) and law firm Cuatrecasas served as advisers for Q-Energy, while CDPQ was advised by BNP Paribas (EPA:BNP) and Watson Farley & Williams LLP.

The parties expect to finalise the transaction over the coming months.

The purchase will represent the first equity investment in Spain for the Canadian institutional investor. CDPQ said it seeks to create a new platform and add further renewable energy assets in the Iberian country.

Chief Investment Officer also reports that CDPQ expands into renewable energy infrastructure in Spain:

Global institutional investor Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ) is expanding into renewable energy infrastructure in Spain with a purchase of solar assets. 

The purchase of a portfolio of 73 solar power systems is the first equity infrastructure investment in Spain for the Quebec pension fund, renewable energy manager and investor Q-Energy said Tuesday. The assets bought through the Q-Energy III Fund will supply enough electricity to support more than 115,000 households. 

“With this transaction, we are laying the foundation of our renewables platform in Spain, which will allow us to progressively increase our presence in this key renewable market and achieve CDPQ’s carbon intensity reduction targets,” CDPQ Executive Vice President and Head of Infrastructure Emmanuel Jaclot said in a statement. 

Q-Energy, which started in 2007 and operates 150 renewable energy plants across Spain, Italy, and Germany, will continue to manage the assets for CDPQ.

CDPQ is one of the largest institutional investors in renewable energy with a 2050 carbon neutral target. Its other renewable investments include a $75 million reinvestment in Indian solar power producer Azure Power Global and a reinvestment into electric vehicle charging company AddÉnergie. The pension fund is also funding solar and wind farms in France, Mexico, and the United Kingdom. 

The Quebec pension fund has about $21.2 billion, or about 8% of its $253 billion total portfolio in infrastructure assets. In the first half of 2020, CDPQ lost 2.3% in asset value, while its infrastructure allocation lost 1%. The pension fund said the infrastructure portfolio is showing some resilience despite exposure to the transport sector, which is hard hit from the pandemic. 

The solar transaction is expected to close in the coming months. The Royal Bank of Canada and Cuatrecasas advised Q-Energy on the deal. BNP Paribas and Watson Farley & Williams counseled CDPQ. 

CDPQ put out a press release on this deal:

  • CDPQ to carry out its first infrastructure equity investment in Spain with the purchase of solar assets from Q-Energy’s Q-Energy III Fund.
  • The assets will form the basis of a new CDPQ platform dedicated to renewable energy infrastructure in Spain.
  • Q-Energy will continue to manage, operate and maintain the portfolio of 73 assets.

Q-Energy, a global platform for investment and renewable energy management, today announced the sale of a portfolio of regulated photovoltaic solar assets to Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ), a global institutional investor.

The portfolio is made up of 73 assets with a total capacity of 216 MWp located throughout Spain. These assets produce over 355,000 MWh annually, which is enough clean electricity to supply more than 115,000 households, or the equivalent consumption of cities such as Valladolid, Alicante or Córdoba in Spain.

This investment represents the first step in creating a new CDPQ platform in Spain, which will seek to aggregate further renewable assets. Following this transaction, Q-Energy will continue to provide comprehensive management of the assets, carrying out day-to-day operations, monitoring and maintenance of the 73 assets. The Q-Energy team currently manages more than 150 renewable energy plants across Spain, Italy and Germany, generating over 1,300 MW of power. On the investment side, Q-Energy has invested more than EUR 6 billion in the sector since 2007, in photovoltaic solar, concentrated solar power, and wind assets.

According to Iñigo Olaguibel, Founding Partner of Q-Energy: “This operation is in line with our wider strategy of continuous financial and operational optimization of renewable energy assets. Having CDPQ as the new owner of this portfolio is a clear example of their commitment to the renewable sector and to Spain, and is a great moment of pride for the Q-Energy team, which will continue to take care of the projects’ long-term management. At Q-Energy, we consider the sector as fundamental to ensuring a sustainable future for our society. We will continue to invest in the sector in the coming years through our new Q-Energy IV Fund, where we hope to invest another EUR 4 billion across different European geographies.”

“This first equity infrastructure investment in Spain is a milestone in the deployment of CDPQ’s long-term European infrastructure strategy,” said Emmanuel Jaclot, Executive Vice President and Head of Infrastructure at CDPQ.“With this transaction, we are laying the foundation of our renewables platform in Spain, which will allow us to progressively increase our presence in this key renewable market and achieve CDPQ’s carbon intensity reduction targets.”

This portfolio of assets was previously owned by the Q-Energy III Fund, which launched in 2018. In just two years this fund has been fully invested and is now in the process of divesting. The closing of this transaction will be finalized over the coming months. Q-Energy has been advised on this transaction by Royal Bank of Canada and Cuatrecasas, and CDPQ was advised by BNP Paribas and Watson Farley & Williams.

So, Emmanuel Jaclot and his infrastructure team are at it again, this time striking a deal to carry out CDPQ's first infrastructure equity investment in Spain with the purchase of solar assets from Q-Energy’s Q-Energy III Fund.

The way this deal was struck is interesting. CDPQ likely (not for sure) invested in Q-Energy's Q-Energy III Fund and then made a bid for assets when Q-Energy started divesting to realize gains for itself and its investors and focus on its Q-Energy IV Fund (EUR 4 billion across different European geographies).

By making this bid on assets in a maturing fund, CDPQ is making a direct investment in these solar assets but it's wisely teaming with Q-Energy which will continue to operate these assets and most likely has a minority stake in this new renewables platform (to ensure alignment of interests). 

This renewables platform is targeting Spain but Q-Energy also invests in Italy and Germany.

I looked into Q-Energy to find out more about them:

Over the last decade, Q-Energy has been facilitating investors’ access to real assets in the renewable energy sector in order to participate in and promote the transition to a low carbon economy.

Currently, Q-Energy team of over 60 professionals manage these two asset platforms with more than 80 renewable generating facilities in Spain and Italy.

Q-Energy has founded two renewable energy vehicles: Q-Energy I (FRV) and Q-Energy II (Vela Energy).  

Q-Energy provides full-scope investment, financing and asset management capabilities, with its exhaustive operational processes and best-in-class IT systems. 

Q-Energy has invested over €3bn debt and equity into the sector globally, has developed over 2GW of solar PV and CSP assets in the main international markets.

Financial details on this deal were not provided so I had to do some digging. 

In September, Q-Energy acquired renewables firm Torresol, which owns three solar thermal plants with a combined capacity of 120 MW in southern Spain. 

Torresol was formerly owned by Spanish group SENER and Masdar – a subsidiary of Mubadala, the sovereign wealth fund of Abu Dhabi.

Back in 2010, Masdar and SENER's joint venture Torresol Energy secured US$760 million loan for Valle 1 and Valle 2 thermal solar plants:

Torresol Energy, a joint venture between Masdar, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Mubadala Development Company, and SENER, a leading international multidiscipline engineering company, with offices in Abu Dhabi, has secured US$760 million project finance loans for the construction of its twin Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants - Valle 1 and Valle 2 - in Andalucía, Spain. The total investment value for the two plants is US$1bn.

Work on the two 50 MW Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants began in March 2009 and is the first time that twin thermo solar plants have been built simultaneously. Both plants incorporate energy solutions developed by SENER, including molten salt thermal storage capacity of up to 7.5 hours. This means that the state-of-the-art plants will be capable of generating electricity at night and through periods of poor sunlight, enabling a continuous supply of electricity and overcoming intermittency, one of the drawbacks of some renewable technologies.

Valle 1 & 2, together with the Gemasolar Central Tower Plant (17MW / 110GWh per year), which was project financed in November 2008 and continues to progress construction as expected, represents a total investment by Torresol Energy of $1.4bn across 3 CSP projects over the past 12 months.

Talking on the announcement Enrique Sendagorta, Chairman of Torresol Energy, said: “We are very proud that Valle 1 and Valle 2 solar plants secured this important financial support, which allows us to continue on schedule with our strategic plans”.

“With a combined production of 340 GWh per annum, which equates to the clean and safe energy for over 80,000 homes and a saving of 90,000 tons of CO2 emissions every year, Valle 1 and 2 will be leaders in the delivery of concentrated solar power and a major contribution to the region’s power supply. A significant feature of these plants will be their ability to produce electricity at night and at times of poor sunlight, which is obviously an important consideration for consumers who require and demand uninterrupted electricity supplies,” he added.

Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO, Masdar, said: “The CSP projects currently under construction in Spain will introduce and test new technologies, which will help promote CSP as an economically competitive and viable alternative to traditional power sources. Through Torresol Energy, we are actively promoting the development and operation of large-scale CSP plants throughout the world and hope to implement additional projects across Southern Europe, North Africa, the Middle East and the Southwest United States”.

The construction of the new plants will have additional benefits for Spain, such as an estimated 3,200 new direct employment opportunities during the two year construction period – with a further 150 specialised professionals required to manage operations after completion.

The assets bought through the Q-Energy III Fund will supply enough electricity to support more than 115,000 households. It gives you an idea of how much these assets are worth, roughly USD $1.5 to $2 billion by my best "guesstimate", if not more (I have no clue what CDPQ paid for these assets).

How much did CDPQ and Q-Energy finance through equity and how much through debt? Nobody knows but these details are important when valuing infrastructure assets and I wish they provided them.

All I can tell you for sure is CDPQ is building out its renewables platform in Spain, a country that is taking sustainable energy to the next level. This is a long-term platform, one that will provide great cash flows over many years.

In fact, I often lamented that if only Greece followed Spain and Portugal's lead into renewables, the country would have been much better off.

[Note to CDPQ and Q-Energy: I can put you in touch with the right people in Greece to expand your renewable energy platform there in a scalable way.]

By the way, CDPQ isn't the only behemoth Canadian pension fund to go green. CPP Investments is also ramping up its green investments

The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments) has doubled down on its investments in green energy.

The investment manager more than doubled its investments in global renewable energy companies to $6.6 billion in the year ended June 30, according to CPP Investments’ latest report on sustainable investing.

The dive into renewables included significant investments in Alberta’s Enbridge Inc. and Brazil’s Votorantim Energia.

“CPP Investments’ exposure to renewables is aligned with our belief that the energy evolution provides opportunities for attractive long-term, risk-adjusted returns,” the investment manager stated in the report.

In the report, CPP Investments outlined its expectations of the companies it invests in, including that they disclose environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks.

The investment manager added that it supports companies aligning their ESG reporting with the recommendations made by the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board and the Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures.

“We believe that by fully considering ESG risks and opportunities, we become better investors and are able to enhance returns and reduce risk for the fund’s more than 20 million contributors and beneficiaries,” Mark Machin, president and CEO of CPP Investments, said in a release.

No doubt, CPP Investments, CDPQ and other large Canadian pensions take ESG risks very seriously but environmental groups just can't cut them some slack, spreading lies and misinformation.

Lastly, don't look now but there's a full blown solar melt-up going on in the stock market:


 


I don't know what to make of it except it's probably a combination of people betting on a Biden win (positive for renewables), way too much liquidity adding to speculative fervor and millennials and Robinhoodies falling in love with renewable energy stocks now that they've gotten whiplash investing in Tesla.

My gut is telling me now is a good time to enter a pairs trade -- Short TAN/ Long XLE -- to basically short this latest move in renewable energy shares and go long traditional energy but it's probably too soon (keep an eye on this trade, if Trump pulls off another upset, it will make you a killing).

Below, renewables are on the rise in Spain, with the country hoping to source nearly 75 per cent of its electricity from green energy by 2030. With solar expected to play an increasingly important role in the energy mix, Macquarie Asset Management's Tom van Rijsewijk explains the growing opportunity in Spain’s solar infrastructure debt market. 

Also,James Sibony, CEO of Esparity Solar, discusses the European solar energy market, particularly in Spain. He explains how Spain is at the forefront of a global trend towards profitable renewables and how regulations can be improved to help address speculation and bring more storage online.

Part 1: Introduction to Integrated Total Fund Management

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Mihail Garchev, former Vice President and Head of Total Fund Management at BCI, and I are launching a new seven part series on Total Fund Management (TFM) on this blog. 

Over the next seven weeks, each Thursday we will bring you a new installment. Below, Part 1 where Mihail introduces integrated Total Fund Management (synopsis) and we embedded a clip with a more detailed discussion at the end of the post:

TFM is the unwritten chapter in your favorite portfolio management textbook. A simple experiment to find this topic in 150 million textbooks, including seminal books by William Bernstein, David Swensen, Bob Litterman, Grinold and Kahn, has nothing TFM or total portfolio management. No matter how hard one searches, there are no textbooks or blueprints on how to do this.

Most recently, there has been a notable shift in some of the largest Canadian pension funds, such as CPP Investments, OTPP, OMERS, and PSP Investments, in creating dedicated TFM functions.

This shift's main reason is to address the size, scale, and efficiency challenges these organizations face. The steps toward establishing the TFM function have been: (i) a dedicated senior executive leadership; (ii) a stated primary objective of their strategic plan documents; (iii) board of directors and CEO support; (iv) a top-down and cross-asset focus; (v) short- and medium-term capital and risk allocation; (vi) other total portfolio activities such as liquidity, leverage, currency, and balance sheet management. Following an analysis of the latest annual reports, this dedication is particularly notable at PSP Investments and CPP Investments, with most other funds also starting to expand this investment function.

The organizational maturity curve that many of these funds are now experiencing is the main reason for the shift toward TFM. Following the expansive build-up phase of laying the investment engine's foundation based on strategic asset allocation and the investment groups, the initial economies of scale may now be reaching a plateau.

While the funds have built strong and robust organizations, ironically, exactly when the organizations are at their best, they face their biggest challenges, and the organizational curve flattens. Unfortunately, significant size and scale come with overlaps in functions and activities, different centers of gravity, communication challenges ("hearing but not listening"), lack of proximity, and sometimes lack of clear vision. Culture becomes a problem. Many things are self-centered and focused on keeping importance, keeping the function and the benefits that come with it, internal politics, and inertness. Additional reasons are the increased external scrutiny, oversight, regulation, reputational issues, social license to operate. In some instances, even one might argue that there is no external challenge to renew because the clients are generally captive.


At this point, TFM becomes increasingly important because the critical role of TFM is to restructure the investment function to optimize scale. It is about pursuing second-order efficiencies and bring back the economies of scale and make these funds as efficient as they once were. The presentation further introduces the concept of economies of scope or the ability to do one thing, which allows up process (do many things and eventually, do them cheaper), economies of scope are a top-down process to bring second-order efficiencies.

As a simple hypothetical case study, imagine that one of the funds has a sizable New Zealand real estate portfolio. There is a decision (for whatever argumentation), to hedge the NZD. Simultaneously, the fund is trying to ramp-up its natural resources portfolio by aggregating family dairy farms and land (an arduous process, by the way). Both perspectives are bottom-up.

The TFM top-down perspective would be that dairy prices primarily drive the NZD (at the medium-term horizon, and interest rates short-term). Therefore, hedging the real estate portfolio is, in a way, offsetting the desire to gain exposure in the natural resources portfolio. The economies of scope, in this case, is that TFM allows for this holistic perspective to avoid the cost of currency hedging as well as the potentially unmanageable (and potentially, not even acknowledged) economic exposure due to the offset.

These second-order effects might have been missed because of "not seeing the forest from the trees"). The broader benefits include better risk management, better performance attribution, better decision making, and communication of strategy and performance. To add another adage, "what is measured, is managed." The positive impact and feedback loop on the other functions is the economies of scope effect (the ability to do one thing, which allows us to do many different things better and more efficiently). This case study illustrates the power of the economies of scope extends further the economies of scale curve.

TFM, as well as culture and communication, are vital instruments to renew the organization and extend its efficiency curve. This is the reason why we also witness an increased focus on culture and communication.

To bring back the analogy, while everything is functioning in a very optimal manner within the asset classes and the operations, and the engine itself runs very optimally, it is not the engine that becomes a problem. It is the car itself. At this point, its success in serving its clients' ultimate purpose is no longer critically dependent on the engine. Although one wants to make sure that the engine never stalls, it is now critically reliant on whoever drives the car or whether they have a good navigation map and a clear plan of how quickly and safely arrive at the final destination.

In summary, the goal of TFM is to extend the organizational curve and renew the economies of scale by shifting the focus to economies of scope, which help to extend the economies of scale. It also needs to address the size, overlap, complexity and weakening structural issues. The Total Fund mindset also needs to strengthen the alignment between investment and operations to become entrepreneurial and built-for-purpose. Finally, this cannot be achieved without the help of culture and communication efforts. If the organizational developments themselves are not enough, there are additional reasons why TFM becomes critically important. We will talk more specifically about these impacts later in the series, but it is important to note a few key points.

In many cases, the maturity of the pension plans leads to increased sensitivity to negative outcomes. The main reason for this is that these plans often have not cash outflows, and this, combined with market downturns, can lead to a significant risk of contribution increases. Thus, short term losses may need contribution adjustments to amortize. As such, it becomes increasingly important to manage the short and medium-term returns better and avoid adverse outcomes in a lower expected return environment going forward. Being efficient matters even more because cost becomes an increasing part of the overall return. Or, in other words, a "penny saved is a penny earned."

We have also witnessed an extraordinary environment of significant structural changes, disruption pandemic, ESG, and various policies and regulations. Thus, selectivity would be an essential aspect of portfolio management; just buying beta might not be enough anymore.

Finally, it might also be a question of the survival of the pension model itself. With the increased competition and commoditization of strategies and low cost, sometimes even zero cost for some strategies, it becomes increasingly important for the pension fund managers to remain relevant.

Alright, We Need TFM. But Don't We Already Have Asset Allocation?

Even if one is already convinced that TFM is indeed needed, the nagging question remains: "Don't we already have Asset Allocation ("AA")?"

In many funds, there is this "Cain and Abel" type of relationship between AA and TFM. TFM is often mistaken, with AA, and AA teams often assume the TFM responsibilities. TFM is sometimes also carried by public markets. Not to mention the infighting that often happens. It all boils down to the clarity of mandate and what exactly is the objective. Because it is possible that while right on a standalone basis for the AA or public markets, the same decisions might not be right for TFM, be it because of different time horizons or more structural and performance measurement issues. This notion would become very clear in (the dramatic) Episode 2, where you will learn about something nobody told you about long-term investing.

Having a dedicated mandate, as part of a strategic plan priority, a senior executive being directly responsible for this function, and with the power to act are essential prerequisites to implement TFM or having a greater chance of being implemented. That said, TFM requires multi-disciplinary skills and things from public markets, Treasury, AA, risk management.

Let us go one step further and try to differentiate between AA and TFM.

AA is the investment policy view of the pension fund portfolio and focuses on: (i) what assets to own in view of growth, inflation, among others); (ii) what are the long-term expected returns for these assets; (iii) the current yield or cash flow and frequency for timely liability payments; and (iv) having liquidity in bad times. The policy portfolio and the additional investment policies (liquidity policy, leverage policy, currency hedging policy, among others) capture this AA view.


TFM is the asset management view of the same investment policy view.

It is about: (i) the current pricing and short- and medium-term expected returns for the assets; (ii) when to own them (the beta management); (iii) how to hold them (efficient implementation, including rebalancing, balance sheet management or the interplay between liquidity and leverage); and finally, (iv) additional skill to improve outcomes, which is related to active management activities, which could also be implemented within the TFM mandate.

How to Own the Assets: The Role of TFM for Efficient and Effective Implementation of the Total Portfolio

The total portfolio represents an optimal combination and an optimal flow of capital between four fundamental elements (pillars): (i) public markets; (i) liquidity; (iii) private markets; (iv) liabilities.

In its role, TFM needs to support the optimality of the four pillars (local optimality) and the optimal flow of capital between them.


Also, TFM needs to complement the total portfolio toward the primary objective, whichever way it is articulated (global optimality). Examples of such primary objectives could be a 5-year risk-adjusted return, contribution rate volatility, liquidity level, and level of inflation protection.

Liquidity is what allows investing in private assets and is the link between public and private investments. TFM needs to ensure an optimal flow of capital between them. The private asset portfolio optimality should be based on the investment belief of why one invests in these asset classes. If the belief is that there is some exotic beta or a proverbial illiquidity premium, just investing in anything that has the name of a private asset should bring these premiums (the "throwing darts" analogy comes right in).

This notion is similar to the analogy with the equity risk premium versus bonds; equities earn more than bonds over the long term. In many cases, the benefit of private assets comes from the ability to create economic value added in the underlying assets (and maybe some mark-to-market quasi-diversification benefit from a reporting perspective, to be completely transparent).

As such, the objective would be to maximize the economic value-added. Therefore, an optimal private portfolio should be built based on other inputs, such as cash flows and business risks, permanent capital impairment, the quality of partners, the network strength, the ability to source transactions, and the expertise to manage businesses. It is a "quantamental" exercise, not a typical asset allocation portfolio construction (an exciting topic on its own).

Regardless of how the optimal private portfolio looks, it has an inherent residual beta exposure (capital structure, sectors, geography, among others) that are not managed and should not be managed by the private asset classes. These residual betas need to be managed by TFM, considering what there is already in the public markets portfolio and the global optimality primary objective. While liquidity was flowing from the public to private markets, the beta now loops back and flows to public markets.

The public markets portfolio would probably have a more traditional risk/return objective function when constructing an optimal portfolio. But again, it depends on what goes into this portfolio and what is the investment belief about this portfolio.

Depending on the fund structure and how performance measurement and benchmarking are set, public markets may or may not be responsible for the cross-asset beta management. I am just opening a bracket here that benchmarking is not a standalone exercise, but a thoughtful process rooted in the investment beliefs and portfolio implementation. But more about it some other time). In this case, TFM either manages the cross-asset beta or complements the beta to the primary objective, considering private asset residual betas and the liquidity flows and balance sheet use. 

Finally, liquidity needs to meet liabilities at all times or else the pension promises will be broken.

From this perspective, TFM serves two primary purposes: (i) it ensures the local optimality, allowing for each element of the total portfolio can function optimally within its requirements to be optimal; and (ii) it ensures global optimality. In other words, the sum of the parts is also optimal versus the primary objectives and outcomes that the organization targets.

There is also a third purpose: value-added activities, whether these would be outright asset allocation activities or some form of alpha generation within the transmission mechanism to serve the local or the global optimality. Examples of such activities could be strategic tilting, could be rebalancing, could be balance sheet management, currency management and currency hedging, among others.

TFM Decision Structure: The Role of Single Versus Multi-Client Structure

Another critical question of TFM is the single versus multi-client structure. As demonstrated in the previous section, TFM is about achieving global optimality. In a single client case, what is optimal for the total portfolio is also optimal for the client.

This may not be the case in a multi-client structure, especially when clients have very different circumstances or different business models (e.g. pension versus insurance clients). The total portfolio now represents a combination of individual clients, and what is optimal for each client might be different depending on each client's circumstances.

Portfolio rebalancing could provide a good illustration of this. Suppose there are two clients. One is underweight equities by 10 percent, and the other is overweight equities by 10 percent. If one thinks of the Total Fund as just pooling everything together, there will be no change. One is plus 10 percent, and the other one is minus 10 percent, both offset each other; therefore, no decision or action is necessary. However, this might be a suboptimal decision or even an outright wrong decision, because for one client, depending on its profile, the optimal decision might be "do nothing." For the other client, the optimal decision might be "rebalance all the away."

Thus, a key challenge becomes how to create a joint top-down total portfolio and bottom-up client optimality. One needs to add to this the extra dimension of asset classes (remember from the previous section, they also have their optimality), so we end up with a three-dimensional problem: (i) to achieve a top-down optimal total portfolio; (ii) to preserve the bottom-up client optimal portfolio; and (iii) to allow for optimal asset class portfolio.

There is also another aspect of the total portfolio in a multi-client setting where there are two total portfolio decisions: (i) "pooling assets" aspect; and (ii) "pooling decisions" aspect.


The first type of total portfolio decisions could be called "pooling assets" decisions. These decisions are taken from the perspective of the asset manager as a corporation. These decisions are not related to the clients but are related to the asset manager as a corporation because of the asset manager pools assets from many clients. Because of the "pooling" aspect, the asset manager is a recourse body to all the counterparties, banks, clearinghouses, among others. These are typically decisions regarding the efficient implementation of the portfolio, balance sheet, leverage, liquidity, contingency, concentration. These decisions are not directly related to the client, but the asset manager as a corporation.

The "pooling decisions" aspect is when the asset manager has one market and view, and this view now needs to flow down to the different clients, with their different circumstances, and to the asset classes. Thus, the same market and risk view might lead to clients' individual decisions, depending on their profile.

So, clients could be very similar or could be somewhat different. They could have dissimilar liability profiles, or in many cases, they could be a combination of pension and insurance clients, for that matter. It might mean individual rebalancing decisions, risk mitigation, liquidity, and leverage decisions for each client. And at the same time, the same market and risk views also impact the public and private asset classes within the organization and influence directly or indirectly, within asset class decisions.

So, the way one builds the TFM structure, the way the decisions are made needs to ensure that these are jointly optimal, optimal for the asset manager, optimal for the clients and optimal for the asset classes. These impacts also need to be very clear and well understood. Again, the adage is very pertinent: "what is measured, it is managed."

When to Own the Assets: Another Way to View the Same Problem of Asset Allocation

We talked so far about TFM and how to own the assets, and we also talked about this "Cain and Abel" relationship between AA and TFM. If one makes the brave step to turn the AA upside down, then we might be able to reunite these concepts that we thought, in the beginning, have this "Cain and Abel" relationship. So, let us turn the AA notion upside down.


The usual AA process includes defining asset classes (also depends on the capability to execute or desire internally to venture into the activity), expected returns, risk and other parameters and assumptions. Then, applying some stochastic modelling and optimization, arrive at asset mixes (investment policy), which correspond to the funding policy's objectives and requirements. Trustees and boards then select the asset mix that best serves the funding policy.

All this process has one very "religious" element – the long-term expected returns, which may or may not materialize. Even more so, as mentioned earlier, in a world of disruptions, pandemic and structural changes). The pension plans' increased sensitivity to negative outcomes, which was also briefly discussed earlier, matters a lot.

What if one can translate, via the ALM process, the funding policy into a set of key desired outcomes, such as level of wealth, inflation protection, contribution risk and liquidity. Then, these outcomes become de facto the policy portfolio. Instead of an asset-class policy portfolio, one has an outcome-oriented policy portfolio. Outcomes would be more stable and could have deviation bands around them to maintain the pension promise. At this point, the organization can hold any asset mix at any time, as long as the desired outcomes and allowed variation are respected. This portfolio would be a more optimal total portfolio because it now manages the path of returns (because it considers the short- and medium-term outcomes.


This is the place to stop to keep the suspense. But it should be said straight that there is something that is not well understood, or maybe understood but not well communicated about the virtue of long-term investing. Let us challenge this notion in Episode 2.

To summarize the key takeaways from this Episode 1: 

  • TFM is needed to extend the efficiency curve and address organizational development, client maturity, and external environment challenges. 
  • TFM enables the functioning of the total portfolio and its four fundamental elements efficiently and effectively. 
  • TFM manages the asset mix betas dynamically, and at any point in time, not just at the end of the horizon, to achieve desired outcomes. 

So why is this fundamental? It would become apparent in the dramatic Episode 2 next week…

This is a phenomenal introduction to a topic that receives little to no attention.

Mihail Garchev and I worked side by side years ago at PSP Investments. Pierre Malo, our boss back then, used to call us his "two research pit bulls" and we worked like donkeys to produce excellent research.

Before joining PSP, he was working as a landscaper but had excellent financial background as he worked in banking in Bulgaria. He literally came to this country with a few suitcases and is an example of why we need more smart immigrants like him. 

After I left PSP, Mihail continued on a solid path, progressively gaining more responsibilities and he ended up at BCI where he single handedly built a TFM system from scratch, incorporating data from each department.

To be fair, he got some help along the way from Samir Ben Tekaya, VP and Head of Risk at BCI, and a couple of others who he speaks very highly about but that's it, there was nothing at BCI before Mihail Garchev got there.

Mihail's departure from BCI leaves a huge black hole. Not sure what they were thinking, don't really care, but let me be crystal clear about this, BCI will never find another Mihail Garchev and there's nobody there that comes close to his experience and intimate knowledge of Total Portfolio Pension Management.

Again, that’s me, Leo Kolivakis, talking, not Mihail Garchev who is humble and stressed he left BCI and PSP on "very good terms".

Anyway, let me focus very briefly on the introduction above.

It is lengthy but packed with phenomenal insights. Think about this series and what we are presenting here as generating the foundations for the Canadian Model 2.0.

Lamoureux, Bertram, Denison, Wiseman, Leech, De Bever, Machin, Keohane and others were all part of building the Canadian model but now a Greek and Bulgarian Canadian are going to show you how we can take it to another level because let's face it, the Canadian model is stale and crusty and needs to be revamped.

This series is all about pushing the envelope on Total Portfolio Management as it impacts pensions on so many levels.

In short, TFM is about integrating a holistic approach that moves well beyond asset allocation decisions to build on what Mihail aptly calls economies of scope.

Below, I embedded the short introductory clip to Total Portfolio Fund Management and Part 1 of the series going over the material above in a lot more detail.

Take the time to watch this and other clips to come every Thursday, there's simply nothing like this available anywhere and on behalf of everyone reading this comment, let me thank Mihail Garchev for the incredible work he has done putting this series together. It truly is outstanding and can only come from someone like him who has the experience and knowledge to share great insights on this topic.

Stocks Waffle as Stimulus Hopes Wane

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Fred Imbert and Yun Li of CNBC report the Dow closes 100 points higher, snaps 3-day losing streak on strong retail sales data:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose on Friday for its first daily gain in four sessions after the release of strong U.S. consumer data to end a volatile week.

The Dow closed 112.11 points higher, or 0.4%, at 28,606.31. The S&P 500 eked out a small gain, closing at 3,483.81 and the Nasdaq Composite ended the day down 0.4% at 11,671.56.

The major averages were broadly higher for most of the session. However, they gave up most of their gains in the final hour of trading as Big Tech shares sold off.

Both Dow and the S&P 500 notched their third straight weekly gain and the Nasdaq posted a four-week winning streak.

U.S. retail sales jumped 1.9% in September, easily topping a Dow Jones estimate of 0.7%, according to data released by the Commerce Department. Excluding autos, sales were up 1.5%. That’s also better than a 0.4% estimate.

“The economy continues to show pockets of strength, but those pockets need to widen,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial. “For those who still have their jobs, the economy has been healing.”

“The question is, if initial unemployment claims continue to rise, will we continue to see retail sales surprising to the upside,” Krosby added.

Boeing shares led the Dow higher, rising 1.9% after Europe’s aviation regulator said Boeing’s 737 Max jet is safe to fly again. Meanwhile, Pfizer jumped 3.8% after the company said it would apply for emergency use of its coronavirus vaccine as soon as it reaches certain safety milestones that it expects to have in late November. Meanwhile, Amazon shares dipped 1.9% amid concerns over the sales from company’s Prime Day event.

Health care and utilities were the best-performing sector in the S&P 500, jumping nearly more than 1% each.


Wall Street was coming off its third consecutive daily decline amid uncertainty around further coronavirus stimulus as well as fears of a worsening pandemic around the world.

Lawmakers in Washington continued to send mix signals about progress toward a stimulus deal. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Thursday that the White House won’t let differences over funding targets for Covid-19 testing derail stimulus talks with top Democrats.

Later, President Donald Trump said that he would raise his offer for a stimulus package above his current level of $1.8 trillion. House Democrats have passed a $2.2 trillion bill.

Meanwhile, the U.K. government announced plans to impose tougher coronavirus restrictions on London, while the French government declared a public health state of emergency earlier this week amid a surge in cases. Germany has also announced new rules to curb the spread of the virus.

“Global equity markets continue to churn, caught between hopes for a better economic future, yet struggling with a still-unchecked pandemic and signs that the economic rebound is fading,” strategists at MRB Partners wrote in a note. “Unprecedented policy actions have supported economic activity and boosted risk asset prices, but are not sufficient to generate a self-reinforcing economic expansion.”

“The latter still awaits successful COVID-19 treatments and vaccines, and both had unfavorable news this week,” they added.

Stephen Culp of Reuters also reports the Dow advances, S&P ekes out gain as vaccine timeline comes into focus:

The S&P 500 posted a nominal gain on Friday as further clarity regarding the timeline for the development of a coronavirus vaccine and much better-than-expected retail sales data brought buyers back to the market.

The Dow also joined the S&P in positive territory, both indexes snapping a three-day losing streak driven by halted vaccine trials and continued wrangling in Washington over a new pandemic relief package. But the Nasdaq ended the session lower.

Even so, they all posted gains on the week.

Pfizer Inc announced it could apply for U.S. authorization for the COVID-19 vaccine it is developing with German partner BioNTech in November. Pfizer’s stock gained 3.8%.

“The two highest-level market movers are the vaccine timeline and stimulus optimism,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird in Louisville, Kentucky. “Sometimes the market gets a reality check that even if we get a vaccine early next year that’s an incredibly aggressive and optimistic timeline.”

Retail sales in September blew past analyst expectations and consumer sentiment for the current month surprised to the upside, according to two separate economic reports. But with previous stimulus having run its course, the outlook is uncertain unless Washington can reach an agreement on a fresh round of fiscal aid.

“It’s important from the retail sales data to see that the consumer is not just limping a long but exceeding expectations,” Mayfield added. “I don’t know how long this can continue without stimulus but it’s heartening to see the consumer has held up pretty well despite some dire expectations.”

On the stimulus front, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that President Donald Trump would “weigh in” with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell if an agreement is reached on a new pandemic relief package. House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy, however, said he does not expect an agreement to be reached ahead of the Nov. 3 election as long as Pelosi is involved.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 112.11 points, or 0.39%, to 28,606.31, the S&P 500 gained 0.47 points, or 0.01%, to 3,483.81 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 42.32 points, or 0.36%, to 11,671.56.

Of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, seven ended the session in the black. While utilities had the largest percentage gain, energy suffered the biggest loss.

Third-quarter reporting season burst from the starting gate this week, with 49 of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported. Of those, 86% have cleared the low bar set by expectations, according to Refinitiv.

Oil services company Schlumberger NV posted its third straight quarterly loss due to falling crude prices and plunging demand. Its shares dropped 8.8%.

Railroad operator Kansas City Southern shed 2.7% and transportation and logistics company J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc tumbled 9.7% after the companies’ quarterly results were hit dropping shipping demand.

The Dow Jones Transport index, considered a barometer of economic health, fell 1.3%.

Shares of fitness company Peloton Interactive Inc lost 3.7% after announcing a recall of faulty pedals on its popular exercise bikes.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.30-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.07-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

The S&P 500 posted 50 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 98 new highs and 20 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 8.82 billion shares, compared with the 9.31 billion average over the last 20 trading days.

It's Friday, time for me to cover markets and give you my two cents.

Let me begin the comment with some really good news:

Scientists at the Oxford University’s physics department have developed a COVID-19 test that can identify the virus in 5 minutes or less. https://t.co/5gDNGaEQqcpic.twitter.com/zg96jMaxVt

— WebMD (@WebMD) October 16, 2020

This news item is worth reading carefully:

Scientists at the Oxford University's physics department have developed a COVID-19 test that can identify the virus in 5 minutes or less, according to a news release from the university.

The speed in returning results means the test could be used in businesses, airports, and music venues to help provide coronavirus-free spaces, the release said. Rapid-result testing is considered an important part of reopening national economies during the pandemic. It involves a throat swab that is then examined with machine-learning software to quickly determine if the virus is present.

The researchers hope to start producing the test in early 2021 and have an approved device on the market within 6 months.

“Unlike other technologies that detect a delayed antibody response or that require expensive, tedious and time-consuming sample preparation, our method quickly detects intact virus particles; meaning the assay is simple, extremely rapid, and cost-effective,” said physics professor Achilles Kapanidis, PhD.

The test may be available in time to help nations manage the pandemic during winters to come.

“A significant concern for the upcoming winter months is the unpredictable effects of co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 with other seasonal respiratory viruses; we have shown that our assay can reliably distinguish between different viruses in clinical samples, a development that offers a crucial advantage in the next phase of the pandemic,” said Nicole Robb, PhD, formerly a Royal Society Fellow at the University of Oxford and now at Warwick Medical School.

The development was announced on the preprint server MedRxiv and has not been peer reviewed.

Siemens Healthineers also announced the launch of a rapid antigen test kit in Europe that could provide a result in 15 minutes. The test uses a nasal swab and would not require a laboratory, Siemens said in a news release.

“This rapid antigen test makes testing available to more people across a wider variety of settings -- particularly in locations that need to test people quickly such as airports or that have limited access to laboratory resources such as schools,” Siemens said in a news release.

The company said it may apply for FDA authorization.

Why is this a potential game changer? Because if this device successfully detects COVID-19 in five minutes, it will allow many businesses to function properly without worrying about whether COVID is being spread internally.

Let me be clear on this, it's still early but if this device proves successful, it will allow airlines, cruise lines, restaurants, bars, casinos, etc. to operate without worrying about spreading the virus.

More than any vaccine or treatment, if this device is approved, it will be a real game changer because we will be able to quickly test people, many with asymptomatic COVID, and stop community spread in its tracks. It will also allow authorities to do proper contact tracing and isolate people who are asymptomatic.

I stress, however, that it's still early days and until this device and vaccines and better treatments come out, we better listen to Governor Chris Christie and wear our mask and take all the necessary precautions to limit the spread of the virus:

I want to explicitly quote Chris Christie: "We need to be telling people that there is no downside to you wearing masks, and in fact, there can be a great deal of upside."

I'm disturbed by the number of people who still refuse to wear masks in public and bemoan closures to parts of our economy, basically showing no concern for vulnerable citizens and our front line workers.

Let me quote Dr. Fauci: "A rising positivity rate means more hospitalizations and death."

Period. We are still in the midst of a global pandemic, it will get worse before it gets better, so people need to wake up and pay attention because the next four months are critical.

And please, whatever you do, remember to take a minimum of 1,000 IUs of vitamin D a day, if not three to five times that amount during the winter months. 

The reason why we are seeing more cases in the winter months isn't just because we are more indoors, it's because we are not getting enough vitamin D. This is the only vitamin I recommend people take all year long, along with eating healthy Mediterranean diets, exercising moderately and sleeping a full eight hours a night.

Anyway, back to markets. Let me begin with something Michael Gayed posted earlier on LinkedIn, Italian bond yields have never been so low in 710 years:


Not sure if you can read my comment but here is what I said: "Seems to me there's a giant carry trade going on front-running central banks. Nice, steady gains using tons of leverage, works fine as long as nothing blows up spectacularly...".

By the way, I think Bridgewater is shorting Italian bonds which explains the lousy performance of its Pure Alpha II fund this year.

What about stocks? They popped earlier today on that stronger than expected US retail sales report, but if you look at economic momentum, it's clearly slowing:

I'm also not sure why mega cap tech stocks sold off at the close today but when I look at the daily chart of the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX), it seems to be rolling over here:


I can't read too much into this as it can pop back up next week.

But one thing I did notice this week is some of the best-performing tech stocks this year, like Fastly (FSLY) got clobbered because they didn't exceed expectations:

Is there a shift in sentiment going on in these hyper growth names? Not sure, it could be another buy-the-dip selloff but Josh Brown brought up a good point on CNBC on Thursday:

He said: "There are 416 companies in the Russell 3000 losing money and their average return this year is 57%. Of those, 100 of them are up more than 100% this year."

This just underscores how much rampant speculation there is in the stock market with a hyper accommodative Fed and Robin Hoodies going crazy buying cloud shares and now focusing their attention on the elections, bidding up solar stocks to the moon:


Ridiculous but money is always looking for a place to hide and I suspect we will see more of these rolling bubbles over the next few years as rates remain ultra low.

What about financials? Some big banks reported solid numbers but their shares can't break out:


That's a five-year weekly chart above and it shows you financials are struggling in an ultra-low rate environment, something Liz Ann Sonders noted:

We shall see, if big banks can’t catch a bid, value investors are in for a lot more trouble ahead.

I think a lot of investors are worried about central banks meddling so much in markets and that US banks are in for a lost decade, much like European banks.

I doubt that because US banks are a lot more innovative and better managed.

Alright, let me wrap it up by going over the S&P sectors performance this week:


As shown, Industrials (XLI) led all other sectors gaining 1% and Real Estate (XLRE) and Energy (XLE) were the big losers, declining 2.3% and 2.1% respectively.

As far as stocks, here are the best-performing stocks (all stocks) this week:

And here are the best-performing large cap stocks this week:


Notice Zoom (ZM) shares keep zooming higher but I think it's setting up for a great short before it reports earnings. 

I also noticed shares of Concho Resources (CXO) popped big this week but the 5-year weekly chart remains very ugly and I wouldn't rush to buy until the long-term downtrend is clearly broken:


Alright, hope you enjoyed this comment and all my comments this week, wish you all a great weekend and remember to kindly donate to this blog using the PayPal options on the top left-hand side under my picture. I thank all of you who take the time to donate.

Below, a powerful interview with Governor Chris Christie who appeared on Good Morning America this morning. The former New Jersey governor talked exclusively to ABC News for the first time since he tested positive for coronavirus. “I let my guard down for a couple of days inside the White House grounds and it cost me in a significant way.”

Also, earlier this week, the panel on CNBC "Halftime Report" discussed how they're trading stocks, and how they view value versus growth picks.

Third, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin signaled Thursday that he will give ground on a key issue in stimulus negotiations with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Earlier today, CNBC's Eamon Javers reported that President Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are giving some ground to the Democrats for a stimulus deal, but prospects for an agreement remain dim. 

It sounds like Trump is ready to sign a deal to boost his re-election odds but it's still a work in progress. Truth be told, Democrats and Republicans shouldn't play politics and sign off on a stimulus package. Millions of Americans are counting on them to put them first so don't be surprised if they pass something before the election.


CalPERS Sets Marching Orders for Next CIO?

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Mary Williams Walsh of the New York Times reports that CalPERS' next chief investment officer has their marching orders: more private equity:

Ben Meng got the job of chief investment officer of CalPERS by convincing the trustees of the nation’s largest public pension fund that he could hit their target of a 7 percent annual return on investment by directing more of the fund’s billions into private equity.

Now, Mr. Meng is gone— only a year and a half after he started — and CalPERS, as the $410 billion California Public Employees’ Retirement System is known, is no closer to that goal. The fund is consistently short of the billions of dollars it needs to pay all retirees their pensions. And it continues to calculate that it can meet those obligations only if it gets the kind of big investment gains promised by private equity.

The strategy involves putting money into funds managed by firms such as the Blackstone Group and Carlyle, which buy companies and retool them with the goal of selling them or taking them public. Even as some of the fund’s trustees have misgivings — they say the private equity business is opaque and illiquid and carries high fees — they say they have little choice.

“Private equity isn’t my favorite asset class,” Theresa Taylor, the chair of the CalPERS board’s investment committee, said at a recent meeting. “It helps us achieve our 7 percent solution,” she said. “I know we have to be there. I wish we were 100 percent funded. Then, maybe we wouldn’t.”

CalPERS, like many other pension funds, began putting money into private equity funds decades ago. But its reliance on such funds has increased in recent years, as low interest rates have made bonds less attractive and stocks have proven too volatile. Adding to the urgency are an aging population, expansive pension benefits that can’t be reduced and a major funding shortfall.

Mr. Meng’s abrupt departure in August, and CalPERS’s slow-moving search for a replacement, are delaying its plans to increase its private equity investments. Mr. Meng resigned after compliance staff noticed that he had personal stakes in some of the investment firms that he was committing CalPERS’s money to, most notably Blackstone. California state officials in that situation are supposed to recuse themselves, but Mr. Meng did not.

Some of the fund’s stakeholders, including cities, school districts and other public employers, worry that in the meantime, CalPERS’s trustees could react by putting new restrictions on investment chiefs, discouraging top candidates from applying for the job or otherwise making it harder for CalPERS to achieve its target rate of return. If investment returns fall short, local officials know they’ll have to make up the difference, dipping into their budgets to free up more money to send to the fund.

“It gets harder and harder each year,” said Brett McFadden, the superintendent of a large school district northeast of Sacramento. He has cut art, music and guidance counselors to get more money for the state pension systems every year. “These policies are being made in Sacramento, and I’m the one left holding the bag,” he said.

Marcie Frost, the chief executive of CalPERS, said that Mr. Meng’s departure would not prompt the board to change CalPERS’s investment strategy. She said a study by CalPERS and its outside consultants showed that private equity and distressed debt were the only asset classes powerful enough to boost the fund’s overall average gains up to 7 percent a year, over time.

“So we have to have a meaningful allocation to those,” she said. “There are no guarantees that we’re going to be able to get 7 percent in the short term or, frankly, in the long term.”

Data shows that CalPERS’s private equity returns are consistently lower than industry benchmarks, but private equity has still performed better than other assets and “has generated billions of dollars in additional returns as a result of our investments,” said Greg Ruiz, CalPERS’s managing investment director for private equity.

Mr. Meng was a big proponent of private equity, telling trustees that “only one asset class” would deliver the returns they sought and that the fund would need to direct more money into it. But while CalPERS sought, under him, to increase its private equity allocation to 8 percent of total assets, the holdings fell to 6.3 percent, in part because the private equity managers were returning money from previous investments and CalPERS did not jump to reinvest it. Over all, the fund had about $80 billion — or 21 percent of its assets — in private equity, real estate and other illiquid assets as of June 30, the end of its last fiscal year.

CalPERS has sometimes moved slowly on private equity partly because of its trustees’ qualms.

At one recent meeting, Ms. Taylor, the investment committee chair and formerly a senior union official, recalled that some of CalPERS’s private equity partners had bought Toys “R” Us in 2005. The transaction loaded it up with $5 billion in debt just as the retailer’s bricks-and-mortar sales strategy was becoming antiquated, and the company went into a long, slow collapse that ended in liquidation and cost more than 30,000 jobs.

“I’m hoping that we can get to a better strategy of mitigating some of these problems,” she said.

Other trustees questioned the validity of the internal benchmark that CalPERS uses to evaluate its private equity investments, saying they didn’t believe the returns were all that good after fees were deducted.

“We’re going to be sold a bill of goods, and we’re going to believe what they say, because we want to believe it and we want to make higher returns,” said Margaret Brown, a trustee and retired capital investments director for a school district southeast of Los Angeles.

Still, the marching orders for CalPERS’s next investment chief are apparent: Find ways to increase the pension giant’s investments in private equity funds.

Independent analysts have long urged public pension trustees to stop chasing higher returns and instead take a deep, hard look at how they got to be so underfunded in the first place. A growing school of thought blames the way they calculate their total obligations to retirees for understating the true number — specifically, how they translate the value of pensions due in the future into today’s dollars.

To do that, CalPERS uses the routine practice of discounting, which all financial institutions use and is based on the principle that money is worth more today than in the future. It requires the selection of an appropriate discount rate. CalPERS uses its target return on investment of 7 percent as its discount rate — a practice flatly rejected by financial economists, because 7 percent is associated with a high degree of risk, and CalPERS’s pensions are risk free. Economists say that CalPERS, and other public pension systems, should be using the rate associated with risk-free bonds like U.S. Treasury bonds. Doing it that way shows the tremendous intrinsic value of risk-free retirement income.

But by assuming a high so-called discount rate that matches its assumed rate of return, CalPERS makes its shortfall look much smaller on paper — which allows the fund to bill the State of California and its cities for smaller annual contributions than it would otherwise have to. That helps everybody balance their budgets more easily, but it has left the pension system chronically underfunded.

Public pension systems in California, including CalPERS, reported a combined shortfall of $352.5 billion as of 2018, using their high investment assumptions as discount rates, according to a compilation by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. But by replacing just that one assumption with what economists consider a valid discount rate, the institute showed that the funds were really $1 trillion short that year. If CalPERS suddenly started billing local governments accordingly, it would cause a crisis.

CalPERS stepped into this trap in 1999, at the end of a powerful bull market. On paper, it appeared to have far more money than it needed, and state lawmakers decided to increase public pensions after hearing from CalPERS officials that it would not cost anything so long as the fund’s investments could produce 8.25 percent average annual gains.

Then the dot-com bubble burst, and the investment gains on paper that CalPERS had amassed melted away, leaving a shortfall. But the big pension increase was locked in because California law bars any reduction in public pensions. Similar things happened in many other states. Before long, the race was on for higher investment returns.

“Over the past 20 years, U.S. pension funds have set aggressive targets and failed to meet them,” said Kurt Winkelmann, a senior fellow for pension policy design at the University of Minnesota’s Heller-Hurwicz Economics Institute.

He recently compiled the investment returns of the 50 states’ pension systems from 2000 to 2018 and compared them with the states’ average targets during that period. It turned out that the actual returns were 1.7 percentage points per year less.

CalPERS’s investment results were even more off the mark, Mr. Winkelmann found. Its target averaged 7.7 percent over the 18 years. But actual average returns were only 5.5 percent over that period, Mr. Winkelmann said.

“There were periods when public fund investments exceeded their targets,” Mr. Winkelmann said. “However, these periods were more than offset by periods with dramatic losses.”

Any way you slice it, CalPERS is in big trouble and Ben Meng's "abrupt" departure only adds to the plan's problems.

Now, I am hearing the board of trustees squabble over whether or not to continue with what Ben Meng started and allocate more to private equity.

My thoughts? Absolutely allocate more to private equity but if you think this is going to save CalPERS, you're delusional. 

There are a couple of things about private equity I do want to point out:

  • First, returns are coming down and in an ultra low rate environment, they may be better than other asset classes, but they're still coming down.
  • Second, the approach matters a lot. If you're mostly doing fund investing, you won't achieve required scale and allocation and fees will eat up a huge chunk of your returns over the long run which is why Canada's large pensions have approached private equity by doing fund investments and co-investing alongside their partners to reduce fee drag

If you look at CPP Investments, Canada's largest pension fund, it invests 25% in private equity, a lot more than its large Canadian peers which average 12% and far more than CalPERS which has a 6.6% allocated to private equity (see details here).

It has a benchmark for base CPP which is 85% global equities and base CPP is partially funded so it can take more equity risk across public and private markets (enhanced CPP is fully funded, so less equity risk).

The key thing, however, is CPP Investments invests in top private equity funds and co-invests alongside them on bigger transactions to reduce fee drag.  

Co-investments are a form of direct investing (no fees) and they make up roughly half of CPP Investments' private equity portfolio (if not a bit more).

To co-invest properly, however, CPP Investments has a professional team of private equity experts headed by Shane Feeney.

These professionals are able to quickly analyze complex co-investments and revert back to their private equity partners quickly to gain access to these co-investments.

Importantly, 50% or more in co-investments allows CPP Investments to maintain its high allocation to private equity (for base CPP) and it's critically important because in private equity, you have distributions every year and need to manage the program carefully to maintain scale.

CPP Investments also has a very well thought out secondaries program in private equity to maintian liquidity. 

The key thing I want to get across, CalPERS isn't CPP Investments, not even close, when it comes to its approach to private equity.

That's not to take anything away from Greg Ruiz, CalPERS’s managing investment director for private equity, and his team. I'm sure they are highly qualified but they don't have the resources to do what CPP Investments and other large Canadian pensions are doing in private equity.

But let me be clear on something, the reason why Canada's large pensions are fully funded (in case of pension plans) or exceeding their funding requirements (in case of pension funds) is because of plan design, not private equity or private markets.

You can have the best investment teams across public and private markets but if you don't get the plan design right, your plan is in deep trouble.

If you don't believe me, read the study Ingo Walter and Clive Lipshitz recently completed, Public Pension Reform and the 49th Parallel: Lessons from Canada for the U.S., which is available here.

I'll go a step further because I know CalPERS' board of trustees and Marcie Frost read my comment.

Given that CalPERS is only 69% funded (if not worse now), you absolutely need to introduce conditional inflation protection at CalPERS, focus on risk a lot more and implementing a better total fund management approach.

On that last point, Mihail Garchev, BCI's former Head of Total Fund Management, recently started posting his insights on my blog on total fund management. You can read Part 1 here.

Every Thursday, we will bring you a new installment (Part 2 is coming ot in two days).

I highly recommend you bring Mihail Garchev into CalPERS to give you his honest and thorough assessment on where you can improve total fund management.

That's far, far more important than allocating more into private equity, and I'm pretty sure Mihail can do this remotely (he's currently based in Victoria, British Colombia).

Lastly, CalPERS has to step it up and hire a CIO to replace Ben Meng. There are excellent candidates internally and in Sacramento but there are others too and I'm surprised it's taking so long to find a suitable replacement.

A pension plan the size of CalPERS needs a dedicated CIO and the sooner they get someone in there to fill Ben's shoes (no easy feat), the better off everyone will be.

Stop making it impossible to attract talented individuals. I know a few people I'd recommend for this position but they're all hesitant about joining CalPERS and suffering the same fate as Ben Meng.

The organization goes through CIOs like some people go through shoes. Ben Meng was the sixth CIO at CalPERS in how many years? It's ridiculous and it needs to stop.

Pick a highly qualified CIO and stick with him or her over the long run.

Alright, enough rambling for a Monday. 

Below, the latest CalPERS Board meeting webcast which took place on Friday and is available here. Fast forward to one hour and 43 minutes to get past the close camera session.

CalPERS CEO, Marcie Frost, discussed finding a suitable CIO candidate at two hours and 31 minutes. They hired Korn Ferry to undertake the search and while I'm sure they're good, they should really contact me before hiring any CIO. 

Also, CalPERS CEO Marcie Frost joined "Squawk Box" a few weeks ago to discuss the fund's target over the long-term and how it is approaching the markets in the current environment.

Lastly, Elizabeth Burton, CIO of Hawaii's pension fund, recently joined "Squawk on the Street" to discuss the markets and the pension fund's investment approach in the lead up to the 2020 presidential election.

Smart lady, wonder if she made the short list to replace Ben Meng.  

OTPP Enters Wealth Management Business?

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James Comtois of Pensions & Investments reports Ontario Teachers teams with private equity to acquire wealth manager:

The C$204.7 billion ($155.1 billion) Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, Toronto, and Lightyear Capital have agreed to acquire wealth management firm Allworth Financial from Parthenon Capital.

Although financial terms of the deal were not disclosed, a Lightyear spokesman confirmed that Allworth’s senior management team will remain major but not majority shareholders of the firm.

Lightyear and Ontario Teachers intend to keep the Allworth name and brand upon completion of the acquisition. Allworth provides retirement planning, investment advising and 401(k) management services, and has $9.3 billion in assets under management.

“We believe (Allworth) is an attractive investment given its differentiated and retirement-centric business model as well as industry tailwinds including an aging population and increased demand for professional and holistic wealth planning services,” said Karen Frank, senior managing director, equities at Ontario Teachers, in a news release announcing the deal.

In the same release, Scott Hanson, co-founder and senior partner of Allworth Financial, added: “We are thrilled to be working with Lightyear and Ontario Teachers’ and are looking forward to leveraging their extensive experience in the financial services and wealth management space. We are proud of what we have been able to accomplish to date and believe Lightyear and Ontario Teachers’ will help accelerate our pursuit of becoming a national firm that brings unbiased, straightforward retirement planning guidance to thousands of families.”

The transaction, which is subject to customary closing approvals, is expected to close before the end of the year.

Today, OTPP put out a detailed press release on this deal: 
Investment funds affiliated with Lightyear Capital LLC (“Lightyear”), a New York-based private equity firm focused on financial services, and Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board (“Ontario Teachers’”), Canada's largest single-profession pension plan, announced today that they have agreed to acquire wealth management firm Allworth Financial (“Allworth” or the “Company”) from private equity funds managed by Parthenon Capital ("Parthenon"). The senior management team of Allworth will remain significant shareholders as part of this transaction. Financial terms were not disclosed. The transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2020, subject to customary closing conditions.

Founded in 1993 and based in Sacramento, CA, Allworth is a full-service independent investment and financial advisory firm that specializes in retirement planning, investment advising, tax planning and preparation and estate planning for the mass affluent. As one of the fastest growing Registered Investment Advisors in the United States, Allworth has completed ten acquisitions, has grown client assets under management from $2.4 billion to approximately $10 billion since 20171, and has been recognized as a top Registered Investment Advisor by several notable publications including Barron’s, the Financial Times, and Financial Advisor Magazine.

The investment by Lightyear and Ontario Teachers’ will enable Allworth to continue to build its national footprint through systematic acquisitions and multi-channel direct marketing efforts with the goal of becoming one of the premier wealth managers in the United States.

“We are thrilled to be working with Lightyear and Ontario Teachers’ and are looking forward to leveraging their extensive experience in the financial services and wealth management space,” said Scott Hanson, Co-Founder and Senior Partner of Allworth Financial. “We are proud of what we have been able to accomplish to date and believe Lightyear and Ontario Teachers’ will help accelerate our pursuit of becoming a national firm that brings unbiased, straightforward retirement planning guidance to thousands of families.”

“Over the past 27 years we have helped thousands of clients with their retirement planning needs and sought partners who understood the importance of putting clients first,” said Pat McClain, Co-Founder and Senior Partner of Allworth Financial. “Together with Lightyear and Ontario Teachers’, we look forward to the continued expansion of our client-first model across the country.”

As fiduciaries to over 300,000 active and retired teachers in Ontario, we understand the critical role that Allworth and its advisors play in providing quality financial planning solutions to its clients. We believe the company is an attractive investment given its differentiated and retirement-centric business model as well as industry tailwinds including an aging population and increased demand for professional and holistic wealth planning services. We look forward to supporting management’s long-term value creation and growth aspirations for Allworth,” said Karen Frank, Senior Managing Director, Equities at Ontario Teachers’.

Mark F. Vassallo, Managing Partner of Lightyear, stated: “We believe we have identified another outstanding investment opportunity in wealth management and are very excited to partner with the Allworth team. Allworth has the opportunity to become a national brand name for providing financial advice. This investment is consistent not only with our long-term thesis around the growing need for financial advice, particularly in times of uncertainty, but also with our multiple prior successful investments in the space.”

Upon closing of the transaction, Allworth will become the fifth investment in wealth management by Lightyear’s affiliated investment funds, including successful realized investments in Cetera, Advisor Group, and Wealth Enhancement Group, as well as a current investment in Cerity Partners. Lightyear also has significant experience investing in companies that leverage technology in marketing to reach consumers, including current investments in Datalot and HealthPlanOne.

Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP and Truist Securities, Inc. are serving as advisors to Lightyear and Ontario Teachers’ and Torys LLP is serving as an advisor to Ontario Teachers’. Kirkland & Ellis LLP, Raymond James & Associates, Inc., and Moelis & Company LLC are serving as advisors to Allworth and Parthenon.

About Allworth Financial
Allworth Financial (www.AllworthFinancial.com) is an independent investment financial advisory firm that specializes in retirement planning, investment advising, and 401(k) management with a direct approach to financial planning. Allworth Financial delivers long- and short-term investment planning solutions and advice to help clients achieve their goals and plan strategically for retirement. In 2019, Allworth Financial was awarded the National Business Research Institute’s Circle of Excellence award for customer satisfaction.

About Ontario Teachers'
The Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan Board (Ontario Teachers') is the administrator of Canada's largest single-profession pension plan, with C$204.7 billion in net assets (all figures at June 30, 2020 unless noted). It holds a diverse global portfolio of assets, approximately 80% of which is managed in-house, and has earned an annual total-fund net return of 9.5% since the plan's founding in 1990. Ontario Teachers' is an independent organization headquartered in Toronto. Its Asia-Pacific regional offices are in Hong Kong and Singapore, and its Europe, Middle East & Africa region office is in London. The defined-benefit plan, which is fully funded as of January 1, 2020, invests and administers the pensions of the province of Ontario's 329,000 active and retired teachers. For more information, visit otpp.com and follow us on Twitter @OtppInfo.

About Lightyear Capital LLC
Founded in 2000, Lightyear is a financial services-focused private equity firm based in New York. Through its affiliated private equity funds, Lightyear makes primarily control investments in North America-based, middle-market companies associated with financial services, including asset management and wealth management, banks and brokerage, commercial and consumer finance, financial technology, healthcare financial services, insurance, and tech-enabled business services. Lightyear brings focus and discipline to its investment process, as well as operating, transaction and strategic management experience, along with significant contacts and resources beyond capital. For more information, please visit www.lycap.com.

Before I give you my thoughts, let's go back to August of this year when Parthenon Capital announced its plans to put Allworth up for sale:

Parthenon Capital is pursuing a sale of RIA aggregator Allworth Financial, sources familiar with the situation told Citywire.

The private equity firm has hired Raymond James to serve as its investment banker, one source said.

Spokespeople for Raymond James and Parthenon Capital did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Scott Hanson (pictured, left), Allworth’s co-chief executive, declined to comment. Hanson and co-chief executive Pat McClain (pictured, right), founded the firm in 1993.


Allworth, which is based in Sacramento, Calif., manages roughly $8bn in assets. Formerly known as Hanson McClain, the firm sold a controlling stake to Parthenon Capital for an undisclosed sum in July of 2017. Allworth managed just $2.4bn at the time of the transaction, according to InvestmentNews.

The firm has become a serial acquirer of RIAs since it took the Parthenon Capital investment: Allworth has completed nine transactions in a roughly three-year span. It most recently acquired $100m Capstone Capital in May and $450m Houston Asset Management in April.

‘Allworth has aggressively grown through its organic marketing engine and a number of meaningful subacquisitions, so it makes sense they are seeking to capitalize on this momentum,’ said Louis Diamond, an executive vice president at advisor consulting and recruiting firm Diamond Consultants.

Private equity firms typically make their investments in portfolio companies with a five to seven-year time horizon. However, private equity investors have put RIA aggregators up for sale ahead of that schedule. In the summer of 2019, Genstar Capital put Mercer Global Advisors up for sale after four years invested in the company, as did Lightyear Capital with Wealth Enhancement Group.

Both of those RIAs eventually sold to other private equity firms. Oak Hill Capital invested in Mercer alongside Genstar Capital, while TA Associates acquired Wealth Enhancement Group.

High valuations in the RIA industry may be behind Parthenon Capital’s decision to pursue a sale of Allworth, explained Mike Papedis, chief executive of RIA consultancy Fusion Financial Partners.

‘With markets at all time highs, if you are a seller, now is your time,’ he said. ‘Foreign investors (CI Financial), private equity money and all the usual suspects (Hightower, Focus Financial Partners) are all incredibly active.’

Allworth is part of a handful of financial services investments for Parthenon Capital. The Boston-based firm’s suite of portfolio companies includes 401(k) custodian Millennium Trust Company, custodian and broker-dealer Mid Atlantic Capital Group and payment processing company Payroc.

So Parthenon Capital is selling Allworth to Ontario Teachers' and Lightyear at the top of the market? That's what it sounds like when I read this:
‘With markets at all time highs, if you are a seller, now is your time,’ he said. ‘Foreign investors (CI Financial), private equity money and all the usual suspects (Hightower, Focus Financial Partners) are all incredibly active.’
Well, not exactly because Teachers' is a pension plan with a very long investment horizon and sees a secular trend developing here which it wants to capitalize on.
 
Which secular trend am I referring to? US retirement anxiety/ pension poverty and you need RIA aggregators like Allworth to capitalize on an explosive growth market. 

Over the weekend, I posted this CNBC article on LinkedIn and Twitter on how older Americans are selling the stock market, slowly but ceaselessly, to junior generations:

I note this from the article:

Harley Bassman, a longtime fixed-income executive at Merrill Lynch and elsewhere who now writes the Convexity Maven newsletter, notes that a large and growing flow of selling is mandated by law. IRA assets, for instance, are subject to mandatory withdrawals beginning at age 72. More than a quarter-million Americans turn 70 each month. There is nearly $11 trillion in these accounts. Bassman calculates that this year $75 billion had to be sold, rising to $250 billion a year in 2030.


Those are not enormous totals in the context of a $30 trillion U.S. equity market, but represent a persistent and strengthening undertow of selling in the market.

Slow exodus from equities 

Much of this systematic retreat comes by way of target-date retirement funds, a hugely popular asset-allocation vehicle that shifts from equities into bonds or cash gradually until a specified retirement year. There is nearly $3 trillion in these funds, which are often the default option in corporate 401(k) plans. More than 40% of that total is pegged to retirement years 2020, 2025 and 2030.

These funds, along with other mixed-asset approaches, also mechanically sell equities to rebalance to their proper allocations, so in a generally rising stock market such disciplined vehicles will be net sellers.

 Again, this is all an overhang of supply of shares on the market but not in itself enough to drive sharp declines. For one thing, individuals control less than half of all U.S. equity value, so the demographic tidal shifts are one among many factors. But it helps explain the slow leakage of cash out of equity funds in recent years, illustrated here since the start of 2018.

There are a lot of people retiring over the next decade who need solid advice which is one reason why Allworth and other RIA aggregators have been growing organically and acquiring others in the process.

What I'm getting at is there are structural reasons why this is a great market and it explains why private equity funds have been very active in the space.

Yesterday, I read Brookfield Asset Management revealed a strategic partnership with American Equity Investment Life Holding (AEL), a retirement planning annuity provider:

The partnership establishes Brookfield as a 19.9% cornerstone investor and reinsurance counterparty of AEL, supporting continued growth opportunities for the business. American Equity Investment Life specializes in the sale, through independent agents, banks, and broker dealers, of fixed index annuities. These investment products support individuals in preserving their retirement dollars and provide a secure, predictable income.

You can read more details on this deal here

Brookfield Annuity is in the pension de-risking business and it deals with a lot of underfunded DB pensions looking to transfer their pension risk.

Again, it's not the same business as Allworth but you get my point, there's big business in managing pension and retirement assets and top line private equity funds want a part of it, be it DB or DC pensions.

Ontario Teachers' is one of the best DB plans in the world so it's entering into a deal in a space it knows all too well.

As Karen Frank, Senior Managing Director, Equities at Ontario Teachers’ put it: "As fiduciaries to over 300,000 active and retired teachers in Ontario, we understand the critical role that Allworth and its advisors play in providing quality financial planning solutions to its clients. We believe the company is an attractive investment given its differentiated and retirement-centric business model as well as industry tailwinds including an aging population and increased demand for professional and holistic wealth planning services. We look forward to supporting management’s long-term value creation and growth aspirations for Allworth.”

By the way, Karen Frank officially joined Ontario Teachers’ as Senior Managing Director, Equities two weeks ago. Based in the London office, she will lead the Equities team, which as at December 31, 2019, managed $47 billion in net assets, with a portfolio including more than 60 private companies, significant investments in public companies and relationships with more than 30 private equity funds.

She brings to the role significant leadership skills, diverse thinking and in-depth knowledge of global markets that will help Teachers' continue to scale its business internationally and build on its track record of success in private and public equity markets.

Now, let me take a minute here to share something critically important, so please pay attention.

Following my last comment on CalPERS, a former Canadian pension fund manager shared his take on co-investments and how Canada's large pensions are not disclosing their performance in this area relative to fund investments (see long update at the end of the comment here).

Today I learned that several years ago, Ontario Teachers'Private Capital did a detailed attribution analysis on all their private equity deals and here's how they ranked them by profitability from worst to best:

  • Fund investments were the worst because carry and management fees ate up most of the returns
  • Minority syndication (a lower form of co-investments where you get a some slice of a deal, say 5%) were second worst because these deals are typically done in bad vintage years when deal activity is high and GPs are looking to unload investments.
  • Teachers' purely direct deals were the second most profitable deals but they weren't plentiful.
  • And the most profitable deals by far were jointly sponsored co-investments (50/50) where Teachers' and their partners sourced and underwrote deals jointly, reducing fee drag. For example, Teachers' deals in Dematic (with AEA Investors) and CPG International (with Ares), both returned roughly 8x the money. These are phenomenal deals.

What is critical to understand is Ontario Teachers', just like CPP Investments, has a specialized PE staff doing jointly sponsored co-investments which is where they get their best bang for their pension buck.

And as was explained to me, not all co-investments are profitable, especially not minority co-investments which are considered direct deals but are really nothing more than syndication where GPs unload small stakes to smaller LPs who can't do jointly sponsored co-investments (and sometimes to larger LPs).

Fascinating stuff, the reason I love this blog is because I learn something new every day talking to the best pension minds in the world. 

This Allworth Financial deal with Lightyear Capital sounds like a jointly sponsored co-investment where both Teachers' Private Capital and Lightyear sourced and underwrote the deal.  

Anyway, I really like this deal a lot over the long run as I like the deal Ontario Teachers’ announced yesterday leading a US$360M investment round into Princeton Digital Group, Asia’s leading data center company:

Singapore-based Princeton Digital Group (PDG) has entered into definitive agreement for a new US$360M equity investment led by Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board (Ontario Teachers’). Warburg Pincus, which has been the largest institutional investor of PDG, is also participating in this new round of fundraising.

PDG is an investor, operator, and developer of data centers with presence in the key digital economies of Asia. Since its founding three years ago, PDG has built a portfolio of 18 data centers across four countries – China, Singapore, Indonesia, and India. The company serves top hyperscalers, internet and cloud companies as they expand across the region. PDG has grown through a combination of acquisitions, carve-outs, and development, and will continue to execute on this strategy in its existing and new markets.

“We are delighted to have Ontario Teachers’ as an investor in PDG. Their track record of long-term investments combined with deep data center experience makes them a great partner as we continue to scale our business. We are also heartened by the continued trust and confidence placed by Warburg Pincus in PDG,” said Rangu Salgame, co-founder, Chairman and CEO of PDG.

“We are excited to invest in PDG alongside Warburg Pincus. We see data centers as a compelling investment opportunity given their essential role in the rapid digitalization and growth of data occurring in Asia and around the world. We have been impressed by PDG’s high-quality management team, unique strategy and track record of success, and look forward to leveraging our experience to help the company continue to scale across Asia” said Ben Chan, Regional Managing Director for Asia-Pacific at Ontario Teachers’.

Since backing the founders in PDG’s formative days, we have been impressed with their ability to build a leading pan-Asian presence within a short period of time.We see a tremendous opportunity for PDG to continue to grow across the largest and fastest growing markets in Asia. We are excited to welcome Ontario Teachers’ as a like-minded and value-adding partner to this venture as PDG embarks on its next phase of growth,” said Ellen Ng, Managing Director, Head of China Real Estate, Warburg Pincus.

About Princeton Digital Group
Princeton Digital Group (PDG), headquartered in Singapore, is a leading investor, developer, and operator of internet infrastructure. PDG partners with global hyperscalers and enterprises to serve their data center needs across Asia. PDG currently has presence and operations in China, Singapore, India, and Indonesia. The company is led by a world-class team with extensive operating experience in the global telecom, internet, cloud, and real estate sectors, bringing together a unique combination of strategic, operations and technology capabilities. For more information please visit www.princetondg.com

The explosive growth of digital data in Asia is a secular theme which will only grow with population growth, more people entering the middle class and more people doing e-commerce online and on their smartphones. 

Princeton Digital Group (PDG), headquartered in Singapore, seems like the ideal partner to have in Asia to capitalize on this explosive growth.

Let me end this comment with a few more thing related to Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan.

It came to my attention that there was a major restructuring that took place last week in the Capital Markets group headed by Gillian Brown

I heard that there was a reshuffling, some activities were cut and others brought internally, all part of a major strategy shift as OTPP grows its assets and shifts its attention to Asia Pacific.

I can't comment more except to say it was mostly juniors who got cut and as one person put it to me: "If there was a major strategy shift, why are only juniors cut and MDs and senior MDs making the strategy spared?".

Like I said, I don't know the details and it's a shame this restructuring took place during a pandemic but it was needed to execute on the long-term strategic initiatives.

Lastly, a note on Ontario's teachers, the clients of OTPP. 

I don't know if people realize but teachers are front line workers and like nurses, they're mostly women and don't get the attention or appreciation they deserve during this pandemic.

I'm going to let you all in on a little secret which governments are trying to suppress. COVID-19 is rampant at our elementary and high schools, there are a lot of cases popping up at a lot of schools here in Quebec and when they test asymptomatic kids which were near symptomatic ones, they discover they too have COVID.

It's not a "fluke" that COVID cases are on the rise in the fall when kids go back to school and I'm tired of the media saying it's because of the "cold weather" and "more people congregating indoors".

No doubt, it plays a role but transmissions at schools are on the rise. I know this is a fact, so be on guard if you're a teacher in Ontario or elsewhere and take all necessary precautions. 

Apart from masks, washing your hands often, social distancing (not easy when you're teaching young kids), open your classroom window a little to have air circulating, and take a minimum of 1,000 IUs of vitamin D a day, if not twice or three times this amount. 

Over the weekend, I heard an infectious disease doctor in Ontario on CTV News who once again repeated the virus is extremely contagious. She also said transmission at schools is on the rise. As far as immunity, she specified you can get reinfected with a different strain of COVID-19 and there are more cases of this happening all over the world. 

Bottom line: be extra vigilant over next six months, you might do everything right and still catch it but the longer you go without catching it, the better your chances of surviving it as new treatments get approved. Once again, don’t forget to take your daily dose of vitamin D, a minimum of 1,000 IUs a day but I recommend up to three times that amount in winter months.

Alright, I better stop there but let me salute teachers and nurses throughout our country who work tirelessly during this pandemic, contributing to the betterment of our society.

In my opinion, they are grossly underpaid for the work they are doing. 

Below, a couple of clips featuring Scott Hanson, co-founder and co-CEO, discussing why they are changing their name and why he loves California where Allworth is headquartered in Sacramento. 

I also embedded a longer clip from Allworth's Money Matters which took place recently where Scott Hanson and Pat McClain look back at some calls they received from the height of the pandemic and discuss the key reasons why more Americans want to work in retirement. 

Great clip, listen to their comments carefully.

Lastly, take a look inside Princeton Digital Group's (PDG) existing and upcoming carrier and cloud-neutral data centers across Asia and listen to Rangu Salgame, Chairman & CEO, discuss the growth of the data center market in Asia on CNBC's Squawk Box Asia.

Like I said, if you're investing in Asia, you want to have strong partners who are best of breed in the activities they're doing. Princeton Digital Group is definitely a great partner to have in the region.

The World’s Best (and Worst) Pension Systems in 2020

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Matthew Burgess of Bloomberg reports on the world's best (and worst) pension systems in 2020:

The Netherlands and Denmark have cemented their positions as having the best pension systems in the world, even as other countries falter during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to an annual global survey.

The countries again took the top two slots in the Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index published Tuesday, drawing praise for holding their nerve and not allowing citizens to drain their accounts during the crisis.

The scores of over half of the countries (20) slipped this year as the world battles to limit the economic fallout from the Covid-19 crisis. The global recession has led to reduced pension contributions, lower investment returns and higher government debt in most countries.

“Inevitably, this will impact future pensions, meaning some people will have to work longer while others will have to settle for a lower standard of living in retirement,” said David Knox, the report’s author and senior partner at Mercer. Stretched public finances mean public benefits in particular are under pressure, he said.

“We’re actually going to have to rely on ourselves with private provision more and more.”

Knox said pension systems such as those in Austria and Italy that hadn’t built up substantial private funds are likely to come under increasing pressure. Both were given a C grade, coming in 28th and 29th respectively.


In the survey of 39 nations, Japan came in at No. 32 and was ranked with a D, a grade that reveals “major weaknesses and/or omissions that need to be addressed.” A key recommendation included raising the state pension age as life expectancy continues to increase in the nation. Thailand and Argentina were in the bottom two slots and should increase support for the poorest and improve governance in private pensions, the report said.

The rankings, based on more than 50 metrics, assess whether a system leads to improved financial outcomes for retirees, whether it is sustainable and whether it has the trust and confidence of the community.


The United States came in 18th with a C+ grade, a system that has good features “but also has major risks and/or shortcomings that should be addressed,” the report said, suggesting raising the minimum pension for low-income pensioners and increasing social security funding.

In top placed Netherlands, at present most workers enjoy defined benefit plans based on lifetime average earnings and a universal state pension. That means a worker gets about 80% of their pre-retirement earnings after stopping work, according to Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development data.

That’s a world away from the situation in Japan and the United Kingdom, where the so-called replacement rates are about 37% and 28% respectively.

An additional concern this year is the decision by some governments -- including Australia and Chile -- to allow individuals to tap their savings early.

“While these measures alleviate the short-term financial burden on citizens, they compromise savings for the future,” said Janet Li, Mercer’s head of wealth in Asia. “The implications will be huge and may create ripple effects, too, onto social and economic fronts.”

Rachel Fixsen and Venelia Amorim of Investments and Pensions Europe also report that Netherlands keeps crown as world’s best pension system:

The Dutch pension system has won the highest score in the latest Global Pension Index report from Mercer, with the international consultancy using this year’s publication to sound a stern warning on the impact of the pandemic on retirement income systems around the world.

In the 2020 Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index report – previously called the Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index – which awards national pension systems points for adequacy, integrity and sustainability as well as giving them an overall score, the Netherlands came top with 82.6 points, followed by Denmark with 81.4 and Israel with 74.7 points.

The top two countries retained their rankings from last year, with each seeing their score grow, while Israel entered the top three this year, knocking Australia down from its 2019 third place.

Among winners in the sub-indices, the Netherlands came top for adequacy with a score of 81.5, Denmark was ranked the most sustainable system with 82.6, and Finland received the highest score for integrity, at 93.5.

The lowest scores for these three categories were given respectively to Mexico with 36.5, Italy with 18.8 and the Philippines, which scored just 34.8 for integrity.

The index compares 39 retirement income systems, covering almost two thirds of the world’s population, according to Mercer.

Commenting on its the global pensions picture overall in 2020, Mercer said the widespread economic impact of COVID-19 was heightening the financial pressures retirees faced, both now and in the future.

David Knox, senior partner at the firm and the study’s lead author, said: “The economic recession caused by the global health crisis has led to reduced pension contributions, lower investment returns and higher government debt in most countries.

“Inevitably, this will impact future pensions, meaning some people will have to work longer while others will have to settle for a lower standard of living in retirement,” he said.

Knox said it was critical that governments reflected on the strengths and weaknesses of their systems to ensure better long-term outcomes for retirees.

José Meijer, interim chair of the Federation of Dutch Pension Funds (Pensioenfederatie), responded to the ranking, saying the Netherlands had a constant focus on where its pension system could be improved and what needed to be done differently.

“That determines how we talk about pensions, and that makes sense,” he said, adding it was nice to see that progress had been made.

Meanwhile, the Danish pensions sector expressed satisfaction with its score, even though it had hoped for more.

“The Danish pension system has for many years been number one in the rankings, but in the last three years the Dutch have scored a few more points,” said Karina Ransby, deputy director of industry association Insurance & Pension Denmark (IPD).

“We had hoped to regain first place, as we have moved forward in several of the parameters on which the measurement is based, but the Netherlands also improved in several areas,” she said, adding that no matter what, the Danish pension system was “world-class”, and the sector was constantly working to make it even better.

Now in its 12th year, the Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index (MCGPI) report benchmarks each retirement income system using more than 50 indicators and covers almost two-thirds of the world's population. 

This year’s Global Pension Index also produces some surprising results, which could influence current policy debates. For the full report, please click here.

No surprise, the top spots for the world's best pension systems once again go to the Netherlands and Denmark, and deservedly so.

Israel edged out Australia this year to come in number 3 which reflects poor policy decisions to open up Australia super funds during the pandemic, leading to a rush of withdrawals under the new coronavirus rules.

Canada came in number 9, holding steady relative to its 2019 rankings.

As shown below, Canada scores moderately high on integrity (77.8) but has to significantly improve sustainability (64.4) and adequacy (68.2).


You can see the full expanded table here

It's clear Canada is doing well on a relative basis but the report frustrates me and let me explain why.

It is common knowledge that the world's best pensions are Canadian and yet our pension system can't crack the top five pension systems in the world.

Why? Because even though we have the best pensions in the world, we aren't covering enough citizens and many are falling through the cracks.

A few years ago, the federal and provincial governments adopted enhancements to the CPP, which will help shore up our pension system, but I'm afraid a lot more needs to be done.

Unfortunately, right now, the combination of low interest rates, a pandemic-ravaged global economy and reduced investment returns are straining pension systems. The average score for pensions’ sustainability dropped by 1.2 in 2020 due to the pandemic’s economic impact.

Canada is not immune to what is going on out there but we need to start thinking long and hard on how we can bolster our pension system to make sure all Canadians retire in dignity and security.

Let me be blunt, if you're ONLY relying on Old Age Security (OAS) and Canada Pension Plan (CPP) to retire, then your retirement years will be miserable. Even if you delay retirement until age 70 to increase the payouts, financial dislocation is still a strong possibility.

I tell all retired Canadians looking to stretch their income to invest in safe dividend stocks like Bell Canada (BCE), Royal Bank (RY), and Enbridge (ENB). You can find a list of great dividend stocks to invest in:

The problem? Dividend stocks are stocks, not safe government bonds, and they can plunge if markets get clobbered.

If your dividend plays are giving you 5% on average, which is excellent but they decline by 15% in any year, you're still down 10% that year in total returns.

But with government bonds yielding next to nothing, there's not much choice but to invest in stocks and deal with the volatility.

In this environment, you need to be alert and raise cash when your stocks are doing well and trim your cash positions when stocks are getting slammed.

Easier said than done, these are very tough markets, and even the best traders and investors can find them tough. 

This is why I'm a huge advocate of expanding well governed defined benefit plans to all Canadians. 

CAAT's DBplus and OPTrust Select are a step in the right direction but we need a massive new push to ensure more Canadians can retire in dignity and security.

What worries me is Canada is piling on the debt and small and medium sized businesses are struggling, so the appetite for further pension reforms won't be there.

It's too bad, and here I am talking from a conservative pro-business angle, if we improved our pension system, we will improve the economy over the long run.

Below, some more food for thought from Conservative MP Pierre Poilevre. I know, he's a bit of a cocky peacock who loves hearing himself speak, but he raises important issues which we need to pay attention to or else we are in big trouble down the road.  

I also posted an interesting clip on the Dutch pension system, the best pension system in the world.

Part 2: What Nobody Told You About Long-Term Investing

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Today, Mihail Garchev, former Vice President and Head of Total Fund Management at BCI, and I bring you the second installment of a seven part series on integrated Total Fund Management for pensions (added emphasis is mine; lightly edited some parts to make them more readable) :

This comment is a synopsis of the original video presentation by Mihail Garchev, former VP and Head of Total Fund Management at BCI, and hosted by Leo Kolivakis, publisher of Pension Pulse. Parts of this synopsis have been presented on this blog last week (see first installment here).

The purpose of the series

One might think that this series is about TFM. But it is not. Well, not entirely, at least. TFM is a means to an end—and this end goal is to advance further the structure of the Canadian pension model. And re-imagine it as the Canadian model, version 2.0. This topic will be at the center of the discussion in the final Episode 7. It is much bigger than TFM itself, but one cannot do it without understanding the basics of TFM. TFM has a central role in helping the CEO and the CIO and their board of directors to accomplish a change and manage the Canadian Model 2.0 in the future.

But before talking about the structural role, one needs to understand the functional role of TFM.

Episodes 1-4 build an understanding of this functional role. Episode 5 will further illustrate different aspects of TFM decision-making through several case studies related to central TFM functions such as rebalancing, leverage, liquidity, balance sheet, and risk mitigation TFM decisions.

Then, in Episode 6, we will talk about moving from a framework and a process to actual implementation and capability.

And finally, we will get to the end goal of our series, where we will be talking about the Canadian Model 2.0 and the critical role of TFM.

Key takeaways from Episode 1 last week

Last Thursday, we discussed that Canadian funds might be at a critical point of the organizational maturity because of size and scale, complexity, among other issues. The efficiency of Canadian funds, the much touted "economies of scale," and by extension, the Canadian model itself as it stands today, might be facing its biggest challenges.
From this perspective, TFM's goal is to restore the economies of scale by pursuing second-order efficiencies. We called these "economies of scope" These efficiencies occur because one uses an optimal top-down view to evaluate and adjust what may seem optimal on a standalone basis for the asset classes or operations. Some examples of such second-order efficiencies include reducing overlaps and associated costs and removing unintended bets and consequences, which is a hidden cost. Also, ensuring an optimal flow of capital and liquidity and that asset classes and Total Fund both function optimally and Total Fund is not subsidizing, in a way, the asset classes. Lastly, TFM complements and augments other functions, such as risk, performance, reporting, and communication.

Client maturity and external environment are additional reasons for an increased Total Fund focus. In many cases, the pension plans' maturity leads to an increased sensitivity to negative outcomes due to the interaction of net cash outflows and market downturns. As such, it becomes increasingly important to manage the short and medium-term returns better and avoid adverse outcomes in a lower expected return environment going forward. Being efficient matters even more because cost becomes an increasing part of the overall return.

We have also witnessed an extraordinary environment of significant structural changes, disruption, pandemic, ESG, and various policies and regulations. Thus, selectivity would be an essential part of portfolio management. Just buying beta might not be enough anymore.

Finally, it might also be a question of survival for the pension model itself. With increased competition and the commoditization of strategies and low cost, sometimes even zero cost for some strategies, it becomes increasingly important for the pension fund managers to remain relevant. As much as clients might be captive, they could also influence organizational restructuring and investment strategy via the board of directors and even opt-out in some instances.

Another aspect is the ability of TFM to enable the flow of capital and optimal functioning of the four pillars of the total portfolio: public markets, liquidity, private markets, and liabilities. In this part of the episode, we talked about being able to differentiate what optimal means for public markets and what it means for private markets and be explicit about it, not only in the narrative but also in measurement and accountability. And finally, this is also true for any liquidity, leverage, balance sheet decisions, which might seem optimal for the asset classes or what we call local optimality. Still, they might not necessarily be optimal for the Total Fund, or what we call global optimality.

Our final point in Episode 1 was that ultimately, what matters are outcomes. For a typical pension plan, key outcomes are wealth to pay benefits, contribution rate stability, inflation adjustment, and liquidity. Outcomes could be achieved by designing a preferred mix based on asset classes and their long-term assumptions and hoping that these assumptions will realize. Or one should not be concerned about the asset mix as an essential belief, but rather, establish the required outcomes and tolerance levels around them and have this as an objective and as a policy portfolio. Then, continuously evaluate the best short and medium-term returns, their probability and confidence levels, and build a portfolio based on this. At any time, whatever the current asset mix is, it will have the highest probability of keeping outcomes intact.

After this much needed brief recap from the previous episode, let us delve right into Episode 2.

Episode 2: What nobody told you about long-term investing

As a disclaimer, the views expressed in this episode represent a generalized framework for understanding some of the aspects of long-term investing. Organizations may have particular circumstances, such as structure, accounting, valuation, or actuarial practices, among others, which may support, negate or mitigate the general conclusions presented in this episode. Let us start with the favorite part of any story, the conflict.

The conflict

There is a widely held belief that short-termism is both pervasive and detrimental.

Meanwhile, long-term investing is considered comparatively rare yet virtuous. However, the case against short-termism is not clear cut. There seems to be this fixation on the horizon, be it short or long. What if it not about the horizon but something else? Could it be that we collectively might be mislabeling something for something else? Could this something be wealth maximization? There are often these truisms that are frequently cited but maybe because of the message being passed along so many times, these concepts are taken for granted in their absolute value, without necessarily understanding the details and perhaps, the particular circumstances which lead to the headline staple. Examples of such statements would be that real estate is an inflation-hedging asset (sometimes, but it depends on the rent resets, among other things, and actually, often it might not be). Or that infrastructure (and more generally, private assets) has a liquidity premium (if anything, it has a liquidity discount because most of the private infrastructure transactions are closed at a 40-60 percent premium to the regulatory cost of capital). I am sure everybody has their favorite list of these staples, as one book called them, "investment fables."

It is a widely accepted belief that as the investment horizon increases, the investment approach and the information it draws on should shift from price drivers to value drivers. This is a correct statement. Almost.

The problem with it is that it is taken in its absolute. Even worse, practitioners may assume their discrete cut-off on what is long and what is medium and short-term. If one asks the question, the bulk of the answers would be something like 10-15 years is long-term, 5-7 years is medium term, and 0-1 year, or so, is short term. Based on this plausible distribution, an investment thesis might posit that it is a 10-15-year strategy; it is long-term investing. Hence, it should focus on the long-term value drives, whichever way these are specified.

Time relativity – What would have Albert Einstein have to say?

A simple analysis brings a striking revelation to this seemingly obvious conclusion. As illustrated in the presentation, it turns out that at the 15- to 20-year horizon, the three drivers of terminal wealth, prices, cash flows, and reinvestment contribute equally to the end wealth. At the 5-year horizon, prices contribute 70% of the end wealth. Only at a horizon of 40 years and beyond, cash flows and reinvestment (value drivers) overwhelm prices, as prices contribute only to the vicinity of 10% to terminal wealth. As such, a nagging question remains, "How long is the long-term, and can one neglect how prices change?"

Could time be relative, and not in the Albert Einstein notion of it (or maybe it is, after all)? Should we forget about these notions of short or long or horizon in general? It is not about how long one holds the asset. It is about what one does with the assets, meanwhile. After all, could all this be about maximizing terminal wealth, and time is not only relative but irrelevant?


Given that it might all be about wealth maximization, the question is: "How one maximizes wealth?" There are two parts to it. The first part is the returns. One needs to produce inflation-adjusted cash flows in the first place (growth). Then, reinvest either new capital or capital from dispositions, cash flows or divert cash flows from other assets and reinvested the capital and cash flows at the best returns currently available at the appropriate horizon. The third aspect is to avoid negative returns. Finally, the cost is always a part of the return, so one needs to minimize any direct cost or hidden or unwarranted exposures and costs.

There is also the liquidity side. And from a liquidity perspective, one needs to have unencumbered liquidity when required. And "unencumbered" is an important word, as sometimes, even government bonds are taken for granted in the various liquidity. But if you think about it, in a real liquidity crunch where cash is king, nobody wants any assets, no matter what the price of these assets is. Everybody really just wants cash. Unless the central bank has an explicit and tested mechanism to provide this ultimate liquidity, any assumption might be wrong, especially if there is a moral hazard involved. And as you know, politicians may make surprising, even illogical decisions at times. So, having unencumbered liquidity is essential. Also, crystalizing losses or selling assets at the worst time impacts terminal wealth. As such, these are some of the key elements to maximize wealth.

The seven wealth maximization commandments

Zooming out of the lengthy narrative, these are the seven wealth maximization commandments: (i) maximize cash flows; (ii) explicitly manage inflation risk (cash flows and returns need to be real; otherwise, it is just mental accounting); (iii) reinvested at the best current returns; (iv) avoid negative returns; (v) minimize direct or hidden costs; (vi) always have enough liquidity; (vii) do not sell assets unless the reason for this is to reinvest in the best current returns.


While today's presentation's key focus is (iii) reinvested at the best current returns, it is worth briefly illustrating the importance of cash flows and avoiding negative returns to the terminal wealth. We already discussed at length the issue of efficiency and costs in Episode 1.
Wealth maximization and cash flows

An interesting question is how one maximizes cash flows? It turns out that private assets are the perfect vehicle to maximize cash flows. The presentation provides an example of the US mid-market buyout value creation versus the comparable industry and highlights that most of the value-added, outside the effect of leverage, is achieved via the revenue, sales and cash flow channels of value creation. The presentation also brings back the discussion on the four pillars of the total portfolio. The point is that the optimal private portfolio might be different from a public one. The difference comes from the objective function to maximize economic value added given cash flows, business model and business model risks, permanent capital impairment, quality of partners, network strength, and expertise to manage businesses. 

One can maximize the economic value-added because one controls business plans, management, costs, management incentives, strategic synergies, acquisitions, and dispositions. Such actions are much more challenging to put in place at public companies. However, many aspects of the ESG revolution and the increased focus by asset owners, in many ways, might lead to similar positive developments for the sustainability of the businesses at even more engaging levels. There is a fundamental reason why private markets have a place in the portfolio, and to no small extent, notwithstanding other essential considerations, it is value creation (maximizing cash flows). There might also be a similar approach to the public markets portfolio, albeit maybe at the expense of growth, or a barbell approach to jointly maximize cash flows and compensate for growth considering both public and private markets together.

Wealth maximization and the upside of the downside

(It seems it is difficult to escape from the Upside Down movie analogy from Episode 1). Another critical aspect of wealth maximization (we will talk about it more in the next episodes) is avoiding negative and adverse outcomes. The presentation makes the point via the cruel math that avoiding adverse outcomes matters more than upside growth.


Depending on the tug-of-war between upside growth and limiting adverse outcomes, in a simplified example, the presentation illustrates that the impact on terminal wealth could be material (30% more wealth due to downside protection).


The point, however, is to move away for a moment from any narrow tail risk or risk mitigation mindset but to think about this aspect from a decision-making perspective. How to evaluate potential upside growth (be it cash flows or reinvestment, which is related to the short-and medium expected returns) versus the cost of avoiding adverse outcomes and its "multiplier" (the cruel math, if you wish) as an equivalent upside growth exposure? In a simple dilemma: I can grow cash flows through corporate actions at 6%, have short-and medium-term returns of 5%, and the cost of protection is 3%? How to evaluate this decision. Is there such a decision-making framework and process in the first place? 

The key risks to outcomes checklist

The seven wealth maximization commandments ultimately lead to the question of what the key risks to outcomes are. If you recall, in the "Upside Down" section of Episode 1, we defined an alternative way to construct a portfolio based on outcomes rather than asset classes. These outcomes were the level of wealth, intergenerational fairness (contribution rate risk), inflation (cost-of-living adjustment), and liquidity (to pay benefits at all times).
Drawing from the seven wealth commandments, we then put forward a checklist of the critical risks to sustainability (strategic risk). And these are the strategic risks to outcomes:

  • Are we producing enough real cash flows? Where should we be producing these cash flows, public or private assets? What are the risks to these cash flows? 
  • Are we reinvesting at the best returns? What are our short, medium-term expected returns? Should we sell assets and reinvest, or divert cash flows from other assets to reinvest in these other assets? 
  • What are our short, medium-term expected returns? Are these less than the impact of drawdowns? What is the cost to mitigate drawdowns? How does this interact with structural risk mitigation, which is embedded in the plan design (this is a topic to come; take it for granted, for now)? Are there any hidden costs, overlaps, and exposures? Are we considering the global optimality versus what is optimal for the asset classes? 
  • Should we lever and which asset should we lever? Should we increase or decrease and deploy liquidity in the asset classes? Should we rebalance? 
  • Which is the optimal balance sheet given current market conditions?

These are all questions on your checklist when discussing risks to outcomes and wealth, which is one of the most significant outcomes. Of course, together with inflation and liquidity.


Meet your new favorite curve – The term structure of expected returns

(There has been so much pain from the yield curve anyway). The answer to many of these questions, how to manage these risks, and how to make decisions about them, ends up with the ability to formulate expected returns. Expected returns at the short and medium-term horizon and extend them up to the long-term horizon and in a consistent manner. Of course, what is the level of confidence in these expected returns because they are not certain. We call these expected returns the "term structure of expected returns," similar to the familiar concept from rates and yields. As a fast-forward, and to have a central tenet— the term structure of expected returns is central to many TFM decision.

The tug-of-war – Required and achievable expected returns

It is not just about any returns. It is about the required returns versus the achievable returns. Borrowing from Episode 1 and the distinction we made there about the difference between Asset Allocation and TFM, the required returns are associated with the long-term investment policy.

What assets to own, and what are the long-term expected returns for these assets and their yields? On the contrary, the achievable returns are the asset management view. Not what assets to own, but when to own them and how to own them. And when to own them is associated with the current pricing and the short and medium-term expected returns for these assets. The immediate point of reference emerges with the discussion at the beginning of Episode 2, where it was demonstrated that prices and reinvestment (another way of saying short and medium-term returns) contribute equally, together with cash flows to terminal wealth at the 10-15-year horizon, and 70% at the 5-year horizon. Outside the cash flow generation risk, which is a topic on its own, and we briefly touched on it in the private market example earlier, managing price risk and managing reinvestment are the critical risks to wealth to manage.

There are two aspects to this. First, the long-term expected returns might never be realized. We hope and pray the long-term expected returns we have put in our original asset mix would lead to the outcomes that we have calculated using these expected return assumptions. As such, there is a need to continually evaluate the long-term expected returns, even more so in a challenging external environment like today (impact of disruptions, themes, social and environmental issues, to name a few, and to link to Episode 1).

The second risk is if the required returns are higher than the achievable returns. This return gap causes asset value erosion due to the compounding of losses, with large, one-off losses or a series of small losses for more extended periods. These instances both need to be always assessed in conjunction with the specific liability profile and the embedded structural risk mitigation in the plan design (actuarial smoothing, use of surplus, among others). These are the critical risks to wealth maximization outside the cash flow generation risk itself.

Hibernation – While you were sleeping… Liability happens

When talking about long-term investing, there is a tempting analogy to compare it to hibernation. So long-term investing is not like going to sleep and waking up ten years later. And everything will be fine because someone might wake up to a rude awakening.

While you were sleeping... Liabilities happen, markets happen, and life happens.

The presentation further illustrates the fact that in the absence of any liability (or generally, any cash flows), long-term expected returns matching the required time horizon are a sufficient objective.


Of course, this is provided one is right about the long-term returns in the first place, which might be a heroic assumption to start with. Long-term returns are indeed the only thing that one needs to look at as the short term does not matter. Thus, the long-term investing thesis can disregard the short term.

However, in the presence of liabilities, the long term represents a series of short terms. Or what this introduces is a path-dependence.


As such, the long-term expected returns, instead, matching the required time horizon, are no longer a sufficient objective. One cannot just go to sleep or go into hibernation and wake up 10 or 20 years later. And as long as one has guessed (and prayed hard) for the long-term expected returns, it will all be okay. No, you will not be okay. As mentioned earlier, it might be a rude awakening. So, liabilities indeed happen. The presentation further provides a stylized example of these impacts on a portfolio to conclude that assets must be liquidated to cover the payments when asset returns are less than the required returns. And with that, the future required return rises. If this happens often enough, and by large enough amounts, the problem spirals. These dynamics are exacerbated when portfolios have net cash outflows, and particularly in volatile market environments (recall Episode 1's discussion on TFM and client maturity and external environment again). 

Liabilities happen… Markets happen…

Not only do liabilities happen but markets happen as well. Even the heroic assumption of being right about the long-term expected returns could not meet the objectives. As such, it requires managing the required versus the achievable return gap. A 2% gap between required and achievable returns results in a 40% probability of zero assets over a 40-year horizon for a typical pension fund portfolio. And it is a certain 100% loss for a 4% gap over the same horizon.


Well, not only liability and markets happen, but life happens as well. The presentation further transforms the stylized example into a real case study on the required versus achievable returns gap's impact using CalPERS's experience. Some key conclusions based on the case studies are:

  • Long-term sustainability requires ensuring the achievable returns are equal or higher than the required returns, and there is sufficient liquidity to meet the liabilities at all times.
  • Long-term expected returns alone are not sufficient to guarantee the end-wealth objective's sustainability, even if achieved. Long term is a series of short terms which need to be managed.
  • This requires path-dependent management of the gap between required and achievable returns to manage asset value erosion, complemented by active management and liquidity management.
This concludes the synopsis of Episode 2: What nobody told you about long-term investing.

This is what nobody told you about long-term investing (we should stop calling it this, really; ask Albert Einstein):

  • Long-term investing is not only about the horizon. But it is actually about wealth maximization. 
  • Prices, cash flows, and reinvestment drive wealth maximization. They contribute equally at the 15 to 20-year time horizon. 
  • In the presence of liability, the long term is a series of short terms. Long-term expected returns alone are not sufficient to guarantee the end-wealth objective's sustainability, even if achieved. 
  • The path of the short terms needs to be managed. It requires a path-dependent allocation to manage the gap between required and achievable expected returns and reinvest at the best current returns possible, minimizing drawdowns and efficient portfolio maintenance.


Equipped with the insights from Episode 1 and 2, next week, we will link back to TFM and how these conclusions build the foundation of the TFM framework. 

Let me begin by thanking Mihail for another outstanding comment.

I took the liberty of slightly editing some things only to make it clearer but the content is truly exceptional and he covers the material extremely well, laying the foundations for his upcoming comments.

I'd like to emphasize once again that the material Mihail and I are bringing to you cannot be found in textbooks, at your favorite consultants, or anywhere else.

It can only be produced by someone like Mihail who has extensive knowledge and experience and a true passion for the material and a gift for explaining it in the simplest terms.

This isn't easy stuff, it took me a few reads and watching the clip Mihail worked on (embedded below) to really grab the concepts and I gather it will take many of you a few reads too

But like he says, TFM, not because it's easy, because it's hard.

There is a beauty in complexity, especially when you think about modern Canadian pensions which operate like different lines of businesses. Independent on one level but integrated businesses on the most important level.

Speaking of the Canadian Model 2.0, Mihail shared with me his thoughts on funds which have organized themselves around an LDI strategy like HOOPP, or OPTrust with its MDI (member-driven investing), as being two pensions that are probably more total fund-oriented than anyone:

This is because the explicit LDI/MDI approach inevitably forces you into a deliberate and unavoidable total fund thinking and decision-making. As much as other organizations would strive to introduce a TFM approach, it might be an uphill battle if they do not change the mindset and the investment and operations structure and decision-making. It is not that it needs to be an LDI or MDI to be a total fund approach - these approaches may have already or will face their own challenges at some point. There are many roads to the proverbial “Rome,” but what probably needs to change is the structure, and with it, the mindset and culture. This is what I was alluding to as the TFM’s structural rather than functional role, and the idea around the Canadian Model 2.0
I agree but even though large pension funds don't manage liabilities, they too need to be cognizant of all this.

There's a reason why CPP Investments keeps harping on "total fund approach" in its annual report. Geoffrey Rubin, Senior Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist and Ed Cass, the new first-ever CIO, both have a hell of a job managing the complexity of all the different investment departments in regards to how they impact the total fund (CPP Investments can use a guy like Mihail).

The same goes for all other CIOs at major Canadian pensions, they need to think about tapping these second-order efficiencies Mihail is talking about.

Anyway, I don't want to deeply analyze the second episode but Mihail is right, TFM is about maximizing wealth and the best way pensions can do this is through private markets where they can formulate a value creation plan and realize it over a number of years.

In private markets, however, execution risk needs to be controlled. Think about my earlier discussion this week on CalPERS wanting more private equity.

As I stated, and Mihail clearly shows, more private equity isn't going to save CalPERS' funded status which continues to deteriorate (only a better plan design will do that).

Moreover, in private equity, the approach matters a lot. 

Following my CalPERS comment, very wise former Canadian pension fund manager shared some observations and insights after reading this comment: 

How do we know co-investing is enhancing the return of a private equity portfolio?  Is there any instance where for example the direct/co investment 5 and 10 year track record is compared with the fund only track record?  I am unaware of any institution ever disclosing this. Lots of unsupported claims and assertions, but mostly on the theory that reducing effective fund fees in blending the outcomes of co-investment somehow creates better overall returns. 

Reducing effective fees through direct investment comes at the cost of the substantial risk of adverse selection, and undoing some of the diversification decisions that the funds themselves think through very carefully.  I have no doubt there are co-investment wins, but there are losses too. Rarely do we hear about the losses, although the anecdotes suggest to me some pretty outsized losses are piling up, and there is way more unrealized rather than realized track record at this point in pretty much any institution that has scaled up this activity in recent years.

Many institutions have not been co-investing for that long, but for those that have for all we know they would have been better off with the funds on their own. Absent disclosure, comments that this approach is in fact working are simply anecdotal. 

Sometimes you do get what you pay for, that is the task and goal of managing fees, not reducing them in isolation. Further there are illiquidity implications. There has been good and creative development of the secondary markets over many years such that the fund interests can achieve some enhanced liquidity when the need arises.  The ability to sell down co-investments, especially where the company performance is questionable, trips up various co-invest agreement terms and makes for a much more bespoke secondary market, if any exists at all for a specific asset.

I support the idea of co-investment but the accountability for this should be completely transparent, at least in the fullness of time.  Otherwise there are misleading signals to the pension market about what strategies to employ.  In an era of up risking due to low bond returns, these signals are resulting in increased private equity allocations which seem to now include co-investment as a necessary component.  The cost and governance implications of building in-house capability is considerable. As usual, the idea is fine but I fully expect that the execution can bring, or more likely already has brought unintended consequence.  Which may actually be reduced returns, and at the least even greater illiquidity on increasingly levered balance sheets.  
That prompted this response from me:
I agree with you that they need to disclose more on co-investment portfolios. On that, BCI has explicitly stated their co-investment portfolio is outperforming their fund investments one and others have told me the same. Is it because they’re not paying fees on co-investments? 

One thing Ben Meng told me before he left, CalPERS can’t expand its private equity portfolio through funds alone, it would force the to allocate to third and fourth quartile funds and defeats the purpose.
 And he replied:
Yes, I have heard the statements about performance butt when you dig, it is usually "since we changed out strategy in 2015" or "under the watch of the present leader/team", or "including the secondaries deals which we view as direct investments", or "before non-core activities" and so on. 

It is possible that there has been good performance in recent years, all with mark to market, but the current state is lagging in showing that it is typically risky deals that get syndicated. It would actually be a very simple thing to disclose, but the implications that the direct activities detracted from value would be really hard to explain. I am ok with the lack of transparency to the point of protecting long term capability. But the other side of the coin is insufficient data to actually rationally advocate for a strategy, which is what you would expect for any other asset class.

Doing third and fourth quartile funds is probably better than doing third and fourth quartile co-investments. But we don't know about the quartile breaks for any co-investment programs, so it is all just talk and wishful thinking.

I personally think that pensions taking on more illiquity through privates and more leverage at the total fund level will be the downfall of the pension system, and that will manifest quicker than people expect. Bit by bit, the old prudent man/woman fiduciary rules of play are being discarded in the quest for returns so that employers and members can avoid the full cost of excessive pension arrangements.  I love risk, but rightsizing portfolios is the way to control it, and privates or all types should be way less than the current advocates suggest.  Liquidity is way undervalued.
On Tuesday, I covered Ontario Teachers'deal with Lightyear Capital where they acquired wealth management firm Allworth Financial from Parthenon Capital.
 
I mentioned that I learned that several years ago, Ontario Teachers'Private Capital did a detailed attribution analysis on all their private equity deals and here's how they ranked them by profitability from worst to best:
  • Fund investments were the worst because carry and management fees ate up most of the returns
  • Minority syndication (a lower form of co-investments where you get a some slice of a deal, say 5%) were second worst because these deals are typically done in bad vintage years when deal activity is high and GPs are looking to unload investments.
  • Teachers' purely direct deals were the second most profitable deals but they weren't plentiful.
  • And the most profitable deals by far were jointly sponsored co-investments (50/50) where Teachers' and their partners sourced and underwrote deals jointly, reducing fee drag. For example, Teachers' deals in Dematic (with AEA Investors) and CPG International (with Ares), both returned roughly 8x the money. These are phenomenal deals.

What is critical to understand is Ontario Teachers', just like CPP Investments, has a specialized PE staff doing jointly sponsored co-investments which is where they get their best bang for their pension buck.

And as was explained to me, not all co-investments are profitable, especially not minority co-investments which are considered direct deals but are really nothing more than syndication where GPs unload small stakes to smaller LPs who can't do jointly sponsored co-investments (and sometimes to larger LPs).

Again, what does this have to do with Total Fund Management? Execution risk or the risk of not realizing on your value creation plan is critically important and ties in to what Mihail discusses on maximizing wealth via private markets.

What else? Mihail discusses the importance of mitigating downside risk and I think he makes a great case.

Remember, pensions are all about managing assets and liabilities but in doing so, they want to minimize downside risk to mitigate extreme volatility and large swings in their funded status and contribution rates.

Take two individuals, Joe and Bob. Joe likes growth stocks, keeps investing everything in the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ). Bob is more safe, likes a balanced 60/40 portfolio and invests only in high dividend blue chip stocks.

Since 2009, Joe's portfolio (100% Nasdaq) has outperformed Bob's but with a lot more volatility. Joe had many sleepless nights, worried sick about his investments. Bob just stuck to his plan and slowly but surely accumulated wealth and didn't suffer the drawdowns Joe did. His portfolio hasn't outperformed Joe's but he sleeps well at night knowing he has more than enough to cover his retirements needs.

Well, lately, with bond yields at zero, even Bob is starting to worry about his retirement but the point I'm making is achieving the same end result doesn't mean experiencing the same journey, investment outcomes are very path dependent. 

Like Mihail states, liabilities, markets and life happen and they can all influence the terminal wealth creation. 

Think about the pandemic and its long-term impact on segments of real estate, infrastructure and private equity. We still don't know the long-term effects of this pandemic.

Lastly, I told Mihail about something very wise Jim Leech once told me:"Pension deficits are path dependent, the starting point matters."

If you're a chronically underfunded US public pension with a 7% target, you need to take excessive risk to make your target rate-of-return and more than likely, you will never achieve it (taxpayers and governments will need to bail you out).

Alright, let me stop there, adding some of my thoughts but I want you all to please take the time to view Mihail's longer presentation below where he delves into the subject matter and offers excellent insights.

Once again, on behalf of everyone reading this comment, let me thank Mihail Garchev for the incredible work he has done putting this series together. It truly is outstanding.

Below, Episode 2 of the seven-episode series "Introduction to Integrated Total Fund Management" presented to you by Mihail Garchev, former VP and Head of Total Fund Management of BCI.

Ignore the Backup in Long Bond Yields?

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Fred Imbert of CNBC reports the Dow closes slightly lower, snaps 3-week winning streak:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly on Friday to end a downbeat week as investors weighed the potential for additional fiscal stimulus.

The 30-stock average slid 28.09 points, or 0.1%, to 28,335.57 as Intel shares struggled. The S&P 500 gained 0.3% to close at 3,465.39 and the Nasdaq Composite closed 0.4% higher at 11,548.28.

“I think everyone is in wait-and-see mode,” said Mike Katz, partner at Seven Points Capital. “There’s a lot of back and forth on stimulus and every headline makes the market move a little bit, but there’s no follow-through because we don’t have a clear picture on that front.”

The Dow and S&P 500 snapped a three-week winning streak and the Nasdaq posted its first weekly loss in five weeks. The S&P 500 lost 0.5% for the week. The Dow and Nasdaq dipped 0.95% and 1.1%, respectively.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Friday that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., is “still dug in” on a number of issues regarding fiscal stimulus. He added: “If she wants to compromise, there will be a deal. But we’ve made lots of progress in lots of areas, but there’s still some significant areas that we’re working through.”

 President Donald Trump also said Friday that he does not want the aid deal to bail out Democratic states. The major averages fell to their session lows on those remarks.

Traders have been keeping an eye on Washington in recent weeks as they gauge the prospects for new coronavirus aid to be pushed through. Several market experts and economists, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, think it is imperative that lawmakers reach a deal on another stimulus package.

“Governmental powers are still trying to put together another economic relief package,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group. “However, despite the July expiration of unemployment benefits provided by the CARES Act, here, two-and-a-half months later, U.S. economic momentum is remarkably healthy.”

Intel shares fell 10.6% following the release of mixed quarterly numbers for the chipmaker. The company’s earnings were in line with analyst expectations, but revenue from its data center business fell short of analyst estimates.

It was a tough week for the tech sector, falling more than 2%, amid concerns that a Democratic sweep on Nov. 3 could put pressure on the high-flying stock group.

“We see a Democratic sweep as having the most uncertainty and tail risk for [the] large-cap internet sector,” Bank of America analysts said in a note. Specifically, the analysts think a “Blue Wave” could lead to higher taxes and tougher regulation for tech companies.

Alright, it's Friday, time to chill out a bit and do my weekly market comment.

Let's begin with the debate last night. It was infinitely better than the first one (a disaster) as the candidates toned it down and focused on policies. It also helped that new rules were adopted and the moderator was superb and kept them both engaged and focused:

Who will be the next president of the United States? The polls clearly put Biden ahead of Trump but I don't trust these polls because many Americans will quietly vote for Trump, even if he rubs them the wrong way

I'll put it to you this way, millions of Americans have already voted and the majority of the people had already made up their mind before last night's debate.

I doubt the debate will influence anyone one way or another. My own feeling is Trump won last night's debate, hammering Biden on the economy and Biden was shaky at times and said some things on oil industry which will piss off Texas and Pennsylvania. 

Don't get me wrong, Trump is often impulsive and unhinged but last night he stayed on message and was more focused (for the most part, said a few stupid things too).

Will it make a difference? Who knows? All I know is according to experts, Trump can still win the election, despite lagging in the polls:

Two weeks from the 2016 election, Clinton had a 6.1 per cent lead over Trump, according to national polls from the time.

But 2016 showed that national leads can be irrelevant, as the number of votes you win is less important than where you win them. Winning the battleground states is a far more likely way to secure an overall victory, according to Clifford Young, president of Ipsos Public Affairs.

“It’s trending Biden in the polls, but the lead in some states is about the same as Clinton had in 2016, so there’s a lot of uncertainty,” he said.

Although Clinton gained nearly 2.9 million more votes than Trump in 2016, he was able to claim victory in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which was enough to grab the presidency.

Anyway, will let you read the entire article here but this is the critical part:

[...] in examining what went wrong with the 2016 polls, Pew Research Center looked at a variety of reasons, including that some respondents may not be honest when answering polls, the nonpartisan think tank stated.

“Some have also suggested that many of those who were polled simply were not honest about whom they intended to vote for,” Pew Research Center stated. “The idea of so-called ‘shy Trumpers’ suggests that support for Trump was socially undesirable, and that his supporters were unwilling to admit their support to pollsters.”

However, Pew Research said this theory “might account for a small amount of the error in 2016 polls, but it was not among the main reasons.”

Still, this reaffirms my belief that this election will be a lot closer than polls suggest and Trump might eke out another victory.

I'll put it to you this way, if the pandemic didn't occur, Trump would have been a shoo-in to be re-elected (don't shoot the messenger, call it like I see it).

One last thing, during the debate last night, Trump said it was Nancy Pelosi holding back another stimulus package.

I don't know if that's true but yesterday the House Speaker cautioned that it could take “a while” for Congress to actually write and vote on relief legislation, with the clock ticking toward the 2020 election.

With the elections around the corner, I doubt they will pass a stimulus bill as Democrats are taking a calculated bet here that they will sweep.

I say "calculated" because if it doesn't materialize, it could backfire on them in a spectacular way.

Alright, enough politics, let's get into markets.

It seems like another boring week but Martin Roberge of Canaccord Genuity notes the market stability stability masks a strong divergence between growth and value stocks, with the latter resurrecting on the back of a marked increase in bond yields. 

In fact, on bonds, Martin notes the following: 

Our focus this week is on US 10-year T-bond yields. The reflation trade appears in full force with bond yields rising ~10bps over the past week. Prospects of a blue wave on November 3, with growing odds for a new stimulus bill, rising inflation expectations and investors looking at the recovery beyond the pandemic are all legitimate reasons to call for higher bond yields. But in the short term, we doubt that bond yields will rise much above the 1% mark. First, as the second panel of our Chart of the Week illustrates, the combined short interest on IEF-US (10y T-bonds ETF) and TLT-US (30y) is already back near cycle highs. Rampant bearish sentiment on US T-bonds usually provides a powerful contrarian signal. Second, low bond yields help the government to finance its growing debt load and the Fed has been vocal on the need for additional stimulus. Third, with the Fed adopting an average inflation target framework, higher bond yields would work against achieving this goal, in our view. Finally, US banks are loaded with Treasuries, considering that they account for roughly 6% of total assets (third panel). As bond vigilantes seem to be testing the Fed’s resolve, it will be interesting to see if the central bank will draw a line in the sand, either through rising bond purchases or through forward guidance.

I agree with Martin, the rise in bond yields isn't anything to get worried about and it presents another buying opportunity in bonds.

When I look at the 5-year iShares 20+ Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), a price index (bond yields move inversely from prices), I see a buying opportunity setting up here:


Moreover, whenever I see Zero Hedge posting a comment on how CTAs are getting ready to liquidate their Treasuries, I take it as a contrarian indicator:

What else? My former colleague, Brian Romanchuk, posted an excellent comment on his Bond Economics blog explaining why central banks are always involved with government finances. You can read it here.

Do you really think the Fed is going to allow long bond yields to continue going up? No way, they want to make sure the housing market stays strong and that the economic recovery builds momentum so that inflation can come back and overshoot its target.

Of course, inflation won't come back in a sustainable way and as I explained on this blog three years ago, deflation is headed for the US, and the pandemic has only exacerbated this trend.

Why? Millions of people are unemployed, hundreds of thousands of small businesses are shuttering, the pandemic has exacerbated inequality and shattered retirement dreams, it's only getting worse out there when you look at the big picture concerning inflation vs deflation. 

Deflation is winning. Period. I don't care what big bad bond bears are telling you, we have yet to see the secular lows on US long bond yields.

What happens if Democrats win and pass a huge stimulus bill? What if Trump gets re-elected and Republicans pass one?

So what? The secular trends I've been discussing on this blog for years remain intact, at best, bond yields will remain ultra-low for another decade.

Of course, bond yields creeping up is bad for tech shares (XLK) and homebuilders (XHB) but great for Financials (XLF) and Energy (XLE). 


 


But if you look at  the charts above, it looks like tech and homebuilder stocks are experiencing a normal pullback, energy and financial stocks are popping but remain very weak.

It's very tough making big tactical calls on stock sectors, there may very well be a shift out of growth stocks (IWF) into value stocks (IWD), but I think it's too early to make that call and I remain unconvinced:


 

I'll put it to you this way, if growth falters because of the second and third wave of coronavirus going on all over the world, bond yields will decline and growth stocks will once again be bid up at the expense of value.

It's that simple but people get caught up in making big calls on bonds without understanding what the hell they are talking about.

Here's my advice, the next time you hear someone warning you that a big, bad bond bear market is just getting underway, do me a favor, ignore them or tell them to start reading this blog because they're utterly clueless.

Alright, let me wrap things up. For the week, here is the S&P sector performance:


And here  are the best performing large cap stocks of the week:

Shares of Snap Inc (SNAP) soared this week and are having a great year:


Oh how I wish I snapped up some of these shares back in March (let it simmer down now).

That's it from me folks, enjoy your weekend, I'll be back next Friday with another market comment.

Below, Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, says the Federal Reserve will be very concerned and may act if the bond yield moves above 1% and is advising clients to stay in US equities. He speaks with Bloomberg's Vonnie Quinn on "Bloomberg Markets."

And CNBC's "Halftime Report" team talks with BlackRock’s bond king Rick Rieder about why he foresees the market is going significantly higher.

Third, Hugh Hendry, former hedge fund manager, says a lot of "zealotry" has been taken out of central banking and explains why he thinks monetary policy is too tight. He speaks with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro on "Bloomberg The Open."

Lastly, in a recent panel hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations, Bridgewater's Director of Investment Research Rebecca Patterson was asked whether investors seem overly bullish about the prospects for a vaccine and pandemic recovery.

She explains that the disparate performance of various industries seen during the pandemic does not reflect optimism towards its imminent end, and how today’s coordinated monetary and fiscal policy (MP3) has led investors towards equities, reflected in part in the recent pronounced rally of technology stocks. Great insights, take the time to listen to her.

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